Group 1 - The core issue is the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on Indian imports, which includes an additional 25% tariff on products imported from India, significantly impacting trade relations [3][4] - India's response to the tariffs includes a statement from the Ministry of External Affairs, labeling the U.S. actions as "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable," and indicating that India will take necessary actions to protect its national interests [3] - The trade deficit between the U.S. and India was approximately $45 billion last year, with the U.S. importing $87 billion worth of goods from India, including pharmaceuticals and electronics [3] Group 2 - Indian Prime Minister Modi emphasized the importance of protecting farmers' interests, stating that he would not compromise them despite the potential heavy costs [1][4] - Modi's recent statements reflect a commitment to promoting Indian-made products and maintaining vigilance over economic interests, especially in light of U.S. criticisms regarding India's economic dependency [4] - The agricultural sector, which employs over 45% of India's workforce, is a critical area of concern for Modi, as losing farmer support could have significant political repercussions [4]

特朗普政府4月初公布所谓"对等关税"措施后，一度宣称有望很快与印度达成贸易协议，但双方在关税 和非关税壁垒上的分歧导致贸易谈判陷于困境。印度从俄罗斯进口石油近期成为美国重点攻击的目标。 特朗普近期不断施压，要求俄罗斯与乌克兰达成停火协议，并在7月29日提出10天"最后期限"。美国以 印度进口俄罗斯石油为由对印度产品加征关税，被国际舆论视为美国对俄施压的一部分。 北京商报综合报道 根据白宫当天发布的公告，特朗普称俄罗斯政府的行为和政策继续对美国国家安全和外交政策构成"异 常威胁"，为应对俄乌冲突引发的国家紧急状态，"对直接或间接进口俄罗斯石油的印度征收额外从价关 税是必要和合适的"。 公告表示，除一些例外情况，新的关税措施将在行政令公布21天后实施。 根据特朗普7月31日签署的行政令，美国将从8月7日开始对印度输美商品征收25%的关税。与6日公布的 额外关税叠加后，印度输美商品将总体适用50%的关税税率。 特朗普近日以印度购买俄罗斯石油为由，威胁大幅提高对印度产品的关税。他称，印度不仅大量购买俄 罗斯石油，还在二级市场上销售并获取大额利润，为俄罗斯战争机器提供"燃料"。 印度外交部6日发布声明重申，美国对印度加 ...

更重要的是，韩国必须向美国提供3500亿美元用于美方拥有并控制的投资项目，同时还需采购价值1000 亿美元的液化天然气及其他能源产品，并承诺再次投入大量资金到本国的投资项目中。需特别指出的 是，韩国的3500亿美元投资承诺与日本及欧盟的投资协议有着本质的区别。日本和欧盟在此类投资中能 够享有更多的自主决策权，甚至可以选择是否兑现承诺。 相较之下，韩国的投资承诺显得尤为直接和 强制：如果美国要求韩国购买美债，或是参与基础设施建设，韩国几乎别无选择。这意味着，从这一角 度看，韩国的协议无疑比欧盟和日本的协议更显屈辱。如果非要对这些协议进行排序，韩国的协议可能 是最严苛的，其后是欧盟，最后是日本。 李在明之所以声称这是一份"互惠协议"，很大程度上是因为 韩国对美国市场的巨大依赖。在特朗普政府突如其来的关税战中，韩国显然面临着巨大的经济压力。李 在明或许认为，如果不能将关税降低到15%，在与其他主要出口国的竞争中，韩国可能会遭受严重打 击。在这种情况下，直白地说，韩国或许是"不跪就得死"的局面。 但问题摆在眼前：韩国真能通过低 头就逃过经济危机吗？答案显然是否定的。实际上，越是急于迎合美国，越容易被收割。从宏观角度来 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-08-07 商品分板块。国内供给侧最敏感的是黑色板块和新能源金属。海外通胀预期受益较为显著的是能源和有色板块。 基本面来看。黑色板块仍受下游需求预期拖累，重点关注"反内卷"事实。有色板块供给受限仍未缓解，后续关注 关税落地对需求预期的影响。能源方面，短期地缘溢价告一段落，中期基本面供给偏宽松看待。OPEC+加速增产， 同意8月增产54.8万桶/日，高于预期。化工板块中，甲醇、PVC、烧碱、尿素等品种的"反内卷"空间也值得关注。 农产品短期并不存在天气扰动，波动空间相对有限。需要指出的是，7月本轮"反内卷"行情启动以来，随着市场情 绪降温，主要品种出现不同程度回撤，后续一方面围绕能否修复4月对等关税出台前的经济基本面博弈，另一方面 则关注"反内卷"的事实落地进展。 策略 商品和股指期货：工业品逢低多配。 风险 8月7日新关税生效，关注中国7月进出口数据 市场分析 市场再回归基本面验证阶段。7月30日政治局会议明部署下半年经济工作：对于宏观政策基调，会议强调"宏观政 策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，维持"稳中有进"的基调，关 于反内卷，会议强 ...

新的关税政策更具系统性和可操作性，应引起高度关注与警惕。 当地时间7月31日，特朗普签署行政令，公布了"对等关税2.0"方案，以替代4月2日公布的"1.0版本"，并于8月7日正式生效。与前一版本相比，新的关税政策 更具系统性和可操作性，应引起高度关注与警惕。 "对等关税2.0"的核心变化体现在两个方面：首先，对关税税率进行了系统性重构，将大部分经济体的税率下调并归入10%至40%不等的多个档次，其税率高 低主要取决于与美国的贸易关系及谈判进展；其次，为封堵规避关税的"漏洞"，取消了适用于所有经济体的800美元以下小额包裹免税政策，并专门针对转 运行为增设了高达40%的惩罚性关税。 这些举措预计将产生以下影响：一是将继续推高美国的平均关税税率，增加关税收入，推升美国通胀；二是严厉的"转运税"围堵转口贸易，将冲击全球供应 链产业链的稳定性，推高全球生产与贸易成本；三是对于中国而言，此次全面收紧关税政策，围堵转出口以及取消小包裹免税，或对中国出口造成进一步的 冲击。 "对等关税2.0"有哪些变化 "对等关税2.0"相比"1.0版本"有了较大变化。"对等关税1.0"的设定不具备科学性，是按照美国对各经济体商品贸易逆差 ...

Group 1 - Japan will face an additional 15% "reciprocal tariff" on imported goods that are already subject to 15% or higher tariffs, which means Japan will not receive the same "non-accumulation of tariffs" treatment as the EU [1] - The trade agreement reached on July 22 stipulates that the applicable "reciprocal tariff" rate for Japan will be 15%, increasing from the current 10% starting in August [1] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister, Akira Amari, has expressed concerns over the U.S. government's announcement that Japanese goods will incur an additional 15% tariff, which contradicts the previously agreed terms [1] Group 2 - The recent agreement between Trump and Akira Amari involved reducing the reciprocal tariff on Japanese goods from 25% to 15% in exchange for increased Japanese investment in the U.S. [2] - The specific timeline for adjustments to automobile tariffs remains unclear, and further discussions are expected between Akira Amari and U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [2] - As of August 7, international spot gold prices have shown a slight increase, reflecting broader market conditions [2]

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Tariff Impact - The report highlights the significant changes in the U.S. non-farm data as a reflection of the post-pandemic "K-shaped economy" differentiation, raising doubts about the effectiveness of current economic statistics [3][23] - It discusses the evolving framework of the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" policy, which is becoming clearer with three tiers based on country agreements, affecting various industries [23][24] - The report suggests that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices in the U.S. is just beginning to manifest, with potential inflation risks remaining due to the ongoing tariff framework and domestic demand stimulation from tax cuts [25][26] Group 2: Chemical Industry - Soda Ash Investment Opportunities - The soda ash industry has about 30% of its capacity being outdated, with 10% of the capacity having energy consumption and emissions below benchmark levels [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with cost advantages, particularly those using natural soda ash methods, which are more energy-efficient and cost-effective compared to synthetic methods [4] - Recommended companies include Boyuan Chemical, which is the largest domestic soda ash producer with a capacity of 6.8 million tons, and Zhongyan Chemical, which is expanding its capacity through new mining rights [4] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry - Kolun Biotechnology - Kolun Biotechnology's SKB264, a TROP2 ADC drug, is in the global phase III clinical trials and is considered to have blockbuster potential, with significant data expected in 2027 [5][36] - The drug has shown promising results in various indications, particularly in NSCLC, outperforming competitors in terms of progression-free survival [37][38] - The report indicates that SKB264 is positioned in the first tier of global competition, with a strong focus on its unique molecular design contributing to its efficacy and safety profile [37][38] Group 4: Electronics Industry - Lian De Equipment - Lian De Equipment has been awarded a contract for the 8.6 generation AMOLED production line, indicating its leading position in the OLED equipment market [18][27] - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for flexible AMOLED displays, particularly in foldable smartphones and high-end IT devices [28][29] - The report projects significant growth in the solid-state battery market, with Lian De Equipment actively developing equipment for this sector, indicating a strong future market potential [30][31] Group 5: Electronics Industry - Sunrock Electronics - Sunrock Electronics reported a sales revenue of 3.224 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.80% [32][33] - The company is experiencing growth in its automotive electronics and data center business, with significant contributions to its revenue from these sectors [34] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's profitability, projecting net profits of 1.05 billion yuan for 2025 and 1.28 billion yuan for 2026 [35]

2025.08. 07 本文字数：1017，阅读时长大约2分钟 据新华社，美国总统特朗普6日签署行政令，以印度"以直接或间接方式进口俄罗斯石油"为由，对印度输美产品征收额外的25%关税。对此，印方表 示，美方对印度加征关税的做法"不公平、不公正、不合理"，印度将"采取一切必要行动"维护国家利益。 印度输美商品关税税率翻倍 根据白宫当天发布的公告，特朗普称俄罗斯政府的行为和政策继续对美国国家安全和外交政策构成"异常威胁"，为应对俄乌冲突引发的国家紧急状 态，"对直接或间接进口俄罗斯石油的印度征收额外从价关税是必要和合适的"。 公告表示，除一些例外情况，新的关税措施将在行政令公布21天后实施。 根据特朗普7月31日签署的行政令，美国将从8月7日开始对印度输美商品征收25%的关税。与6日公布的额外关税叠加后，印度输美商品将总体适用 50%的关税税率。 特朗普近日以印度购买俄罗斯石油为由，威胁大幅提高对印度产品的关税。他称，印度不仅大量购买俄罗斯石油，还在二级市场上销售并获取大额利 润，为俄罗斯战争机器提供"燃料"。 "不公平、不公正、不合理" 印度外交部6日发布声明重申，美国对印度加征关税等行为"不公平、不公正、不 ...

赤泽还表示，日美已就将汽车关税降至15%达成一致，但由于英国在与美国达成协议后，实际降低汽车 关税花费了一定时间，他此行将寻求美方尽早予以落实。赤泽此前表示，日本汽车及汽车零部件目前被 美方征收27.5%的关税，每一天都在遭受巨额损失，督促美方尽早落实协议，将关税降至15%是他最紧 迫的任务。 资讯编辑：沈一冰 021-26093395 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 赤泽强调，将"要求美方解释相关经过，并落实双方已达成一致的内容"。 据《日本经济新闻》网站报道，日本时间6日上午，正在美国访问的日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正在当地 对记者表示，美国方面公布的关于8月7日开始征税的官方公告与之前日美双方达成的协议不一致，使日 本面临更高的关税，日本要求美方对此予以纠正。 此外，就日美达成的贸易协议中日方承诺向美国投资5500亿美元，美国总统特朗普日前表示，"我们可 以随心所欲地用于各种投资。"赤泽表示，"如果对日本企业和日本经济没有好处，我们无法予以合 作。" 7月22日，特朗普宣布与日本达成贸易协议，日本适用的"对等关税"税率将从25%降至15%。由于"对等 ...

Group 1 - The new tariff policy by President Trump, originally set to take effect on August 1, has been postponed to August 7, with the tariff rates "basically determined" according to U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer [1][2] - Trump is expected to announce significant economic measures on August 6, which will be his first major action following a series of economic and geopolitical warnings [2] - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with India for continuing to purchase Russian oil, threatening "very significant" tariffs as punishment, which has led to a defensive response from Indian officials [3][4] Group 2 - The Indian stock market has shown signs of stress, with the BSE Sensex index dropping 0.38% and the rupee depreciating against the dollar amid concerns over potential U.S. tariffs [3] - The Sensex and Nifty indices fell again on August 6, with Sensex down 166 points, as Trump indicated plans to impose tariffs on specific industries, including semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, potentially raising drug tariffs to 250% [4] - Following Trump's executive order on July 31, trade partners will face adjustments in tariff rates, with new rates set to take effect on August 7 [5][6] Group 3 - The U.S. has announced a significant increase in tariffs on Swiss imports to 39%, up from a previously proposed 31%, raising concerns about potential job losses and order declines in Swiss industries [7] - Swiss officials, including President Keller-Sutter and Economy Minister Parmelan, have traveled to Washington to negotiate before the new tariffs take effect [7][8] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister is also in the U.S. seeking clarification and adjustments to tariff measures, as Japan's goods may face higher effective tax rates than the agreed 15% [8]