纽约联储主席约翰・威廉姆斯于本周一在新泽西州泽西市的公开活动表示在12月完成今年第三次降息后，面对 就业市场隐现的下行风险与通胀压力的边际缓解，当前货币政策已为2026年的经济运行筑牢基础。 威廉姆斯强调，联邦公开市场委员会已完成从"适度限制性"到"中性"的政策转向，这一调整的核心目标是精准 平衡通胀过高与就业疲软两大风险。 得益于财政政策的持续发力、金融市场环境的持续改善，以及人工智能领域投资的加速落地，2026年美国经济 增速有望从2025年的1.5%提升至2.25%。通胀方面，预计将在明年回落至2.5%以下，并在2027年逐步趋近美联 储设定的2%长期目标。 在演讲后的问答环节中，他进一步补充，当前的利率调整并非基于单一数据的短期反应，而是对央行双重使命 的系统性回应，旨在通过前瞻性布局，避免通胀与就业风险向极端化发展。 波士顿联储主席柯林斯，则在领英平台发布的帖子中坦言，12月支持降息是一个"艰难的选择"。"11月时，我的 分析仍倾向于维持政策稳定，但随着更多数据的披露，风险平衡出现了微妙变化。"。 美联储理事米兰则继续坚持其激进立场，在接受CNBC采访时重申，当前的政策立场仍存在过度限制性，未能 充 ...

智通财经APP获悉，纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，在上周降息之后，鉴于就业风险增加和通胀风 险有所减轻，货币政策已为明年做好了充分准备。 在演讲后的问答环节中，这位纽约联储主席暗示，当前的货币政策已经校准，能够应对央行主要目标中 的任何一个关键风险——无论是通胀过高还是就业市场过于疲软。 大致平衡 威廉姆斯表示："今年，我们根据数据和前景展望，以一种我们认为能很好地使这两种相互竞争的风险 大致平衡的方式下调了利率。" 他说："我们无法确切知道明年的贸易政策、通胀或经济会发生什么， 但我认为我们为此做好了充分准备。" 他发表讲话的第二天，美国劳工统计局将公布关键的就业数据，此前因政府关门导致 10 月份和 11 月份 大部分时间的数据发布被推迟。 威廉姆斯在活动结束后告诉记者，他预计这份报告将"基本符合我们所看到的情况——就业增长相对缓 慢，且劳动力市场逐渐降温的迹象"。 他补充说，现在讨论美联储明年 1 月下次政策会议的可能选项还为时过早，但他"非常支持"上周的降 息。 威廉姆斯周一在为新泽西州泽西城的一场活动准备的讲稿中提到联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)时表 示："货币政策非常关注于实现这些风险的平衡。为 ...

Market Overview - The global market has shown volatility this week, with the Federal Reserve announcing its third interest rate cut of the year. The Dow Jones increased by 1.05%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 1.62% and 0.63%, respectively [2] - European stock indices displayed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 down by 0.19%, the German DAX 30 up by 0.66%, and the French CAC 40 down by 0.57% [2] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's December meeting revealed significant internal disagreements, with a 25 basis point rate cut and an updated dot plot indicating only one expected rate cut in 2026 [3] - Market expectations suggest more frequent rate cuts than the Fed's projections, with the U.S. money market pricing in two additional cuts [3] Employment and Inflation Data - Key employment and inflation data, delayed due to government shutdown, will be released soon, including the November non-farm payroll report and the consumer price index (CPI) [3] - The ADP private sector employment report indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs, suggesting potential downward risks for the upcoming non-farm payroll report [3] Treasury Auctions - The U.S. Treasury plans to auction $13 billion in 20-year bonds and $24 billion in 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), testing investor demand for long-term bonds [4] Oil and Gold Market Trends - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude down by 4.39% to $57.44 per barrel and Brent crude down by 4.13% to $61.12 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical factors and oversupply [5] - Gold prices rose by 2.07% to $4,300.10 per ounce, driven by the Fed's rate cut and a weaker dollar [6] Precious Metals Market - Analysts noted that the rise in silver prices is positively impacting gold, with strong momentum in the precious metals market [7] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is anticipated to provide insights into the Fed's policy direction [7] European Central Bank Expectations - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at its upcoming meeting, with speculation about future rate hikes likely postponed until 2027 [8] - The ECB is anticipated to revise its short-term economic growth forecasts upward while slightly lowering medium-term inflation expectations [8] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators, including the December PMI for France, Germany, and the Eurozone, will be crucial for ECB decision-making [9] - The Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% to support a weakening economy, despite high inflation levels [9][10]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% on December 10, 2025, marking the third consecutive rate cut since September and the sixth in the current cycle [1] - The decision reflects internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, dissatisfaction from the White House, and potential global market repercussions, raising questions about whether the rate cut is a stabilizing measure or a warning signal of underlying risks [3][4] - The Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability is at play, with Chairman Powell indicating challenges in the current economic landscape, where inflation risks are rising while employment risks are declining [4] Group 2 - The median forecast for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is 2.9% for this year and 2.4% for next year, still above the long-term target of 2% [6] - Powell attributed high inflation to the one-time price increases from tariffs imposed by the previous administration, providing theoretical support for the rate cut as it suggests that inflation pressure is not due to excessive money supply [6] - The labor market signals, including slowing job growth and rising unemployment, prompted the Fed to lower financing costs to stimulate investment and consumer spending, aiming to stabilize employment [8] Group 3 - The recent meeting saw the highest number of dissenting votes since September 2019, indicating intense debate within the Fed regarding the adequacy of the rate cut [10] - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock indices responded positively, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, Nasdaq up 0.33%, and S&P 500 up 0.67% [10] - Gold and silver prices rose sharply, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 0.52% and spot silver rising by 2%, while the U.S. dollar index fell below 99 [12] Group 4 - The White House expressed dissatisfaction with the rate cut, with President Trump criticizing the 25 basis point reduction as insufficient, suggesting it could have been doubled [12][14] - Trump believes low interest rates are crucial for economic growth, while Powell's policies are seen as overly rigid, highlighting the tension between political pressure and independent monetary policy [14] - The Fed's decision to maintain a 25 basis point cut can be viewed as a defense of its independence against political influence [14] Group 5 - The Fed's rate policy impacts global capital flows, with a weaker dollar leading to an appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which rose by 67 basis points to 7.0686 against the dollar [16] - For companies, lower financing costs from the rate cut benefit those with dollar-denominated debt, easing financial pressure and allowing for expansion or debt repayment [18] - Importing companies may benefit from lower costs due to a weaker dollar, while exporting companies, particularly in labor-intensive sectors, may face challenges due to increased prices in international markets [18] Group 6 - Individuals may experience reduced yields on dollar deposits and investment products, necessitating adjustments in asset allocation [20] - The appreciation of the yuan lowers costs for studying abroad, traveling, and shopping, potentially saving families significant amounts on tuition [20] - The Fed's rate cut may attract international capital to emerging markets, with China's bond and stock markets likely to see increased inflows [20][22] Group 7 - The interplay between the Fed's internal divisions, political pressures from the White House, and global market reactions indicates that the 25 basis point cut transcends mere monetary policy [23] - This situation reflects the current state of the U.S. economy and serves as a microcosm of the evolving global economic landscape [24]

Group 1: Economic Policy Framework - The central economic work meeting emphasizes the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to ensure smooth economic operation[2] - The meeting suggests a combination of "mandatory options + optional options" in macroeconomic policy, indicating a relatively stable approach to mandatory macro policies while allowing for counter-cyclical adjustments as needed[3] - The integration of stock and incremental policies is highlighted, with a commitment to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy while maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels[3] Group 2: Consumer and Market Dynamics - Consumption is prioritized over investment in policy discussions, with specific measures to enhance consumer capacity, including the implementation of urban and rural resident income increase plans[4] - The meeting calls for the expansion of quality goods and services supply and the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential[4] - The focus on addressing "involution" competition indicates a recognition of deeper structural issues, requiring comprehensive solutions rather than superficial capacity clearing[4] Group 3: Taxation and Industry Support - The meeting proposes to improve the local tax system, addressing the decline in local tax revenue share in fiscal income and expenditure, with potential adjustments to shared tax ratios to stabilize local government finances[5] - Specific industries are identified for targeted support, including artificial intelligence, digital trade, and green trade, aiming to create a favorable policy environment for development[5] - Employment remains a top priority in social policy, with a focus on stabilizing job opportunities for key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers[5] Group 4: Risk Management - The meeting emphasizes risk prevention, particularly in the real estate sector and local government debt, encouraging the acquisition of existing residential properties for affordable housing[6] - The report highlights potential risks including policy changes, unexpected economic fluctuations, and delays in updating research information[6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points is seen as a significant move in response to the U.S. economic challenges, creating ripples in the global financial markets, particularly benefiting China [3][11] - The internal debate within the Federal Reserve was intense, with a notable split among members regarding the necessity and timing of the rate cut, highlighting the pressures of liquidity constraints in the financial system [5][9] - The reduction in U.S. interest rates is expected to attract global capital towards emerging markets, with China emerging as a prime destination for investment due to its favorable economic conditions and potential for growth [11][13] Group 2 - The easing of monetary policy in the U.S. is likely to create a more favorable financing environment for Chinese companies, enabling them to expand production and invest in research and development [15][17] - The influx of foreign capital into China is already evident, with significant net inflows into the stock market and increased purchases of Chinese government bonds, indicating a growing confidence in the Chinese economy [11][13] - China's proactive approach in enhancing its economic fundamentals, such as promoting industrial upgrades and addressing technological challenges, positions it well to capitalize on the current favorable external conditions [19][21]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：于博宏观札记） | | 2025年12月议息会议 | 2025年10月议息会议 | 2025年9月议息会议 | 2025年7月议息会议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 利率决策 | 下调25BP | 下调25BP | 下调25BP | 不调整 | | 联邦基金利率目标区间 | 3.50%-3.75% | 3.75%-4.00% | 4.00%-4.25% | 4.25%-4.50% | | 超额准备盆率 | 3.65% | 3.90% | 4.15% | 4.40% | | 陽夜逆回购利率 | 3.50% | 3.75% | 4.00% | 4.25% | | 级信贷贴到窗口利率 | 3.75% | 4.00% | 4.25% | 4.50% | | | 12月1日起:1)美联储持有的美国 国债到期后,本金部分将全部在拍卖 | 10-11月:月度减持美国国债的 | | | | | | 上限维持在50亿美元、维持月度 | | | | | 中续做 (roll over) ; 2) 机构债与 机构抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)的本 | 减持抵押贷款支持证券 ...

北京时间12月11日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会结束了为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目 标区间下调25个基点至3.5%—3.75%。这是美联储自今年9月开启本轮降息周期以来的第三次降息，也 是连续三次在议息会议上采取相同幅度操作。 尽管降息幅度符合市场主流预期，但会议罕见地出现了9比3的投票结果，以及美联储对未来利率路径的 谨慎表态，凸显出其在控通胀与稳就业之间的艰难平衡。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲表示，12月FOMC如期降息25个基点，点阵图指引6名FOMC成员不赞同本 次降息，2026全年降息1次，整体偏鹰；但同时美联储超预期宣布启动轻量扩表，且由于反对票、鹰派 点阵图已被市场抢跑预期，因此鲍威尔在发布会上偏鸽派的发言反而助推了市场的宽货币交易。 芦哲分析，短期看，2026年1月会议前大量发布的经济数据仍将使得最近1个月的降息预期出现反复；中 期看，2026年一季度的美国宽财政、宽货币与季节性调整将迫使美联储在3—4月暂停降息，中期选举前 可能出现至少3次的连续降息，这将导致明年美联储货币政策预期的节奏呈现为先鹰后鸽。 在会后新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，本次降息决定遵循促进美国民众充分就业 ...

Group 1 - Employment is emphasized as the largest livelihood and fundamental support for economic development, with the government prioritizing employment policies to stabilize the job market [1] - In the first three quarters, 10.57 million new urban jobs were created, achieving 88% of the annual target, while the average urban unemployment rate from January to October was 5.2%, below the expected control target [1] - Various policies have been implemented to support employment, including financial assistance to enterprises and measures to stabilize job positions [2][3] Group 2 - The government has allocated 35.5 billion yuan for employment support projects, expected to absorb over 1.1 million low-income workers [2] - A reduction in unemployment insurance fees has saved enterprises 138.4 billion yuan in labor costs, while 19.6 billion yuan has been allocated for job retention funds [3] - Targeted actions have been taken to support youth employment, including the creation of 1 million internship positions and recruitment of 42,500 personnel for public service [4] Group 3 - New employment opportunities are emerging in sectors such as artificial intelligence, big data, and modern services, with significant demand for skilled professionals [6][8] - The introduction of new professions and job categories aims to create more employment opportunities, with 17 new professions and 42 new job types added [6] - Companies are adapting to industry changes by updating talent training programs to ensure workers can transition to new roles [7] Group 4 - Policies are being implemented to improve employment quality, including vocational training and optimizing the employment environment [10][11] - A focus on market needs has led to the establishment of over 60 skill ecosystems across 19 provinces, enhancing the competitiveness of workers [12] - Measures are being taken to protect workers' rights, including addressing wage arrears and ensuring fair compensation for skilled labor [13]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月11日电 美联储在为期两天的政策会议后宣布下调利率，但同时释放出谨慎信号。美 联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上强调，货币政策无预设路径，将根据经济数据灵活调整。同时，美联储 还启动了技术性购债操作，以维护市场流动性。决议公布后，美元走软，美国国债收益率下跌。鲍威尔 发布会要点如下： 利率前景 可以等待并观察经济如何发展。目前处于中性水平区间的上端。目前没有人会把加息作为基本预期。长 期利率可能因预期经济增长加快而上升。 通胀前景 通胀风险偏向上行。当前通胀超调主要由关税引起。若关税取消，通胀率将处于2%区间的低位。关税 的影响很可能是一次性的。若未来不再推出新的大规模关税政策，商品通胀预计将在2026年第一季度达 到峰值，随后快速回落至合理区间。从通胀结构来看，服务业通胀（剔除住房分项）仍在持续下行，这 是美联储最关注的内生通胀压力指标，目前已取得明显进展；同时，长期通胀预期依然牢牢锚定在2% 的目标水平，市场盈亏平衡通胀率处于"非常舒适的水平"。 购买短期国库券仅用于准备金管理，购债规模可能在未来几个月内保持高位，随后逐渐减少。 其他重要议题表态 美国住房市场的根本问题是长期供 ...