预计美联储将降息25个基点，目标是到明年3月将利率从目前的4.5%上限降至3.25%。此外，零售销售 数据预计将因消费者信心低迷和汽车销售下滑而受阻，工业生产也可能再次萎缩，这些都印证了经济放 缓的趋势。 大西洋彼岸的英国，英格兰银行（BoE）在周四的会议上预计将维持利率不变。鉴于英国央行倾向于每 季度降息一次，且已在8月实施降息，本次会议降息的可能性微乎其微。然而，市场将密切关注其前瞻 性指引，以寻找进一步宽松的线索。就业市场是英国央行面临的一个不确定因素，尽管近期调查有所改 善，但秋季的就业数据仍是关键风险，尤其需要确认薪资增长是否正在放缓。 下周，全球金融市场的目光将再次聚焦于各国央行的利率决策会议，一场影响深远的货币政策调整浪潮 即将展开。美联储和加拿大央行预计将分别降息25个基点，而英国央行则可能选择按兵不动，但任何关 于未来宽松政策的暗示都将受到密切关注。 此外，多个国家重要的经济数据，如通胀、就业和工业产出报告，也将陆续发布，为市场提供判断未来 政策走向的关键线索。 在发达市场中，美国美联储的周三会议无疑是重中之重。尽管通胀依然高企，但美国的就业数据却持续 恶化，过去四个月就业增长有限，甚至有数 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The inflation in the US is in line with expectations, and the trading patterns of short - and long - term bonds are differentiated. The market expects a 25bp interest rate cut in the September meeting and three rate cuts throughout the year. In the European and Japanese markets, Japanese bonds are stable, while German bonds rise due to hawkish signals. In other major asset classes, global stock indices generally rise except for Russia, cryptocurrencies and precious metals lead the rally in commodities, and there are significant differences in the performance of different currencies against the RMB [4][22][23]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This Week's Overseas Macro - Interest Rate Review 3.1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Review - **Employment**: The US employment market shows further signs of weakness. The number of initial jobless claims increases by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021, higher than the market expectation of 235,000 [1][12]. - **Inflation**: The US PPI unexpectedly drops month - on - month in August, with service costs falling by 0.2%. The core CPI remains high, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3% and a year - on - year of 3.1% in August. The overall CPI rises more than expected, with a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year of 2.9% in August [2][13]. - **Business Index**: The US EIA crude oil inventory data shows an unexpected increase. The inventory increases by 3.939 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels, against the market expectation of a 1.9 - million - barrel decrease [3][14]. 3.1.2 Review of Major Overseas Market Interest Rates - **US**: From September 5th to September 12th, 2025, the 1 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bond rates fluctuate by +1bp and - 4bp to 3.66% and 4.06% respectively. The long - and short - term trading patterns are differentiated. The long - term is traded around the recession narrative, and the short - term is traded around the expectation of the number and amplitude of interest rate cuts. The 3 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year US Treasury auctions have strong, strong, and relatively stable demand respectively [4][15][16]. - **Europe and Japan**: Japanese bonds are stable, with the 1 - year and 10 - year rates fluctuating by +0.9bp and +0.4bp to 0.70% and 1.59% respectively. German bonds rise due to hawkish signals from the European Central Bank, with the 2 - year and 10 - year rates fluctuating by +6.00bp and - 1.00bp to 2.02% and 2.70% respectively [22]. 3.2 Review of Other Major Asset Classes - **Equities**: Global major stock indices generally rise, except for the Russian market. South Korea (+5.94%), Japan (+4.07%), and Hong Kong (+3.82%) perform strongly, while Russia (-2.13%) is the only market with negative growth [23]. - **Commodities**: Cryptocurrencies and precious metals lead the rally. Bitcoin rises by 4.87%, London silver by 3.72%, and London gold by 1.57%. Some industrial products are under pressure, such as the pig index, rebar, coke, etc. [24]. - **Foreign Exchange**: European and Japanese currencies rise against the RMB, while the US dollar and most Asian currencies show small fluctuations. The Russian ruble drops significantly by 4.04% against the RMB [25]. 3.3 Market Tracking - **Government Bond Interest Rates**: The report shows the interest rate fluctuations of 1 - year and 10 - year government bonds in major economies such as the US, Japan, Germany, etc. [33]. - **Stock Indices**: It presents the weekly and historical percentile changes of major global stock indices, showing that most markets are at relatively high historical levels [35]. - **Commodities**: It shows the price changes of major commodities and their historical percentile levels, indicating significant differentiation in performance [38]. - **Foreign Exchange**: It displays the exchange rate changes of major global currencies against the RMB and their historical percentile levels [40]. - **Economic Data Panels**: It includes economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, covering GDP, inflation, employment, and business sentiment indices [42][49][54].

Global Asset Price Performance - Global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices both rising by 1.6%, and the Nasdaq index increasing by 2% this week [2][3] - In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to decline by 4 basis points [2] - Commodity prices saw a decrease in crude oil, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices falling by 1.7% and 0.9% respectively, while London gold prices rose by 1.6% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Federal Reserve: A U.S. District Court judge temporarily blocked Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to potentially attend the upcoming FOMC meeting [5] - European Central Bank: The ECB maintained its deposit rate at 2%, marking the second consecutive pause in rate cuts, with little change in inflation outlook [5] U.S. Economic Dynamics - Inflation in the U.S. showed moderate growth, with the CPI year-on-year increase rising to 2.9%. Core CPI remained stable, but a slight increase of 0.05 percentage points was noted [9] - Initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, reaching the highest level in nearly four years, indicating a cooling labor market [9] - The NFIB small business confidence index reached 100.8, the highest since January 2025, driven by a significant increase in new orders [10] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - France: The government faced a crisis as Prime Minister Borne resigned after losing parliamentary confidence, with the new Prime Minister likely to struggle for majority support [21] - Germany: Industrial production showed a month-on-month increase of 1.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, indicating potential for recovery despite ongoing challenges [21]

Inflation and Employment Data - In August, the U.S. CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year to 2.9%, while the core CPI increased by 0.1% to 3.1%, marking a six-month high[2] - Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week, indicating a cooling labor market[2] Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Actions - The market has fully priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, with the dollar index remaining in a weak adjustment zone[2] - The conflicting data of strong inflation and weak employment may complicate the Federal Reserve's future rate cut path[3] Core CPI and Contributing Factors - The core CPI's 0.35% month-on-month increase in August is the highest in seven months, driven by accelerated tariff transmission and rising rents[3] - Durable goods saw a month-on-month increase of 0.42%, reflecting the impact of tariffs on consumer prices[3] Future Economic Outlook - The sustainability of inflationary pressures is likely, with ongoing tariff impacts and stable wage growth contributing to core inflation[3] - The potential effects of a new tax cut plan on consumer demand and labor market dynamics could influence the Fed's rate decisions in 2026[3] Monetary Policy Considerations - Current conditions suggest a favorable window for monetary policy easing, with a potential 10 basis point rate cut to stabilize the real estate market[4] - Risks include the possibility of the Fed's rate cuts falling short of market expectations, which could constrain domestic monetary easing[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Employment data in the US is under pressure again, leading to a significant decline in US Treasury yields. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting has increased significantly [1][3][9][11]. - The US manufacturing and service industries show different trends, with the manufacturing industry moving from contraction to expansion, while the service industry is still in a good expansion state but with a slowdown in expansion speed. EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, contrary to market expectations [2][10]. - Global stock markets are mixed, with European markets generally under pressure. Precious metals in the commodity market hit new highs, and risk preferences are polarized. Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB [4][15][16][17]. 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Indicator Review Employment - In July, JOLTS job openings were lower than expected, dropping to a 10 - month low (7.181 million, lower than the forecast of 7.380 million and the previous value of 7.357 million) [9]. - In August, the US ADP employment increase was only 54,000, far lower than the expected 73,000 and the previous value of 106,000, indicating a significant weakening of employment growth momentum [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims this week exceeded expectations, rising to 237,000, higher than the forecast of 230,000 and the previous value of 229,000, confirming the cooling trend of the labor market [9]. - The month - on - month growth rate of average hourly wages in August met expectations and was the same as the previous value (0.3%) [9]. - In August, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll employment increase was only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000 and a more than 70% drop from the previous value, further lowering the market's expectations for the employment market [9]. - The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, in line with expectations and slightly higher than the previous value of 4.2%. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting increased significantly [1][9]. Economy - In August, the US Markit manufacturing PMI increased significantly to 53.0, returning above 50 and indicating that the manufacturing industry moved from the contraction range in July to the expansion range [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected but up 0.7 points from the previous value [2][10]. - In August, the US Markit services PMI was lower than expected and declined from the previous value, but it was still above 50, indicating that the service industry was still in a good expansion state [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI rebounded above expectations, reaching 52.0 and remaining above 50 for three consecutive months [2][10]. - The US EIA crude oil inventory this week increased significantly to 2.415 million barrels, far exceeding the expected - 2.000 million barrels and the previous value of - 2.392 million barrels [2][10]. 3.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review US - From August 29 to September 5, 2025, the 1 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields dropped by 18bp and 13bp respectively, to 3.05% and 4.1%. Employment data put pressure on the market, and the Fed's attitude remains cautious. The market's expectation for a 50bp interest - rate cut at the September meeting has heated up again, but the possibility is still low. Multiple 25bp interest - rate cuts this year are more likely, and the possibility of consecutive interest - rate cuts is small [3][11]. Europe and Japan - The Japanese bond market was stable with small fluctuations. The 1 - year and 10 - year Japanese bond yields fluctuated by - 0.34bp and - 0.8bp respectively, to 0.7% and 1.62%. - The German bond market was also stable. The 2 - year and 10 - year German bond yields fluctuated by 3.00bp and 0bp respectively, to 1.96% and 2.71% [3][14]. 3.3 Other Asset Class Reviews Equity - Global stock markets were mixed. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (+1.36%), the US NASDAQ (+1.14%), and the Indian Sensex30 (+1.13%) led the gains, supported by the rebound of the technology and financial sectors. In contrast, the German DAX (-1.28%), A - shares (-1.18%), and the Vietnamese VN30 (-1.07%) declined significantly, mainly affected by macro - economic and capital - market pressures, and European markets were generally under pressure [4][15]. Commodity - Precious metals performed brightly. London silver rose by 5.01%, and London gold rose by 4.82% this week, breaking through the historical high of $3,587 per ounce, highlighting the surge in market risk - aversion demand. Crude oil and agricultural products generally declined, while some black - series commodities rose slightly. Bitcoin rebounded by 2.12%, showing a polarized risk preference [4][16]. Foreign Exchange - Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB. The US dollar and the euro exchange rates against the RMB rose by 0.08% and 0.10% respectively, while the Japanese yen, Russian ruble, and Indian rupee exchange rates against the RMB fell by 0.71%, 1.14%, and 0.62% respectively [4][17]. 3.4 Market Tracking The report provides multiple charts, including the US Treasury auction panel, FED WATCH latest target - rate expectations, the simulated trends of the US dollar, US stocks, US Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin, the trends of global major stock indices, the weekly changes in bond yields of major global economies, the weekly changes in major commodities, the weekly changes in major foreign exchange rates against the RMB, and the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [12][13][19][20][22][26][29][32][39][46].

Core Points - The emphasis on prioritizing people's welfare and improving living standards is a fundamental aspect of China's modernization strategy [1][3] - The government aims to address the most pressing issues concerning people's livelihoods, such as employment, healthcare, and social security [4][5] - The establishment of a comprehensive social security system is crucial for promoting economic development and ensuring equitable distribution of resources [3][4] Group 1: People's Welfare - The government is committed to enhancing the quality of life for all citizens by responding effectively to their needs and concerns [1][2] - Community work is highlighted as essential for addressing the daily lives of families, particularly focusing on the elderly and children [2][3] - The leadership's ongoing engagement with citizens through grassroots visits reflects a deep concern for their well-being [2][3] Group 2: Employment and Economic Development - Employment is identified as the most fundamental aspect of people's livelihoods, with an average of 13 million new urban jobs created annually since the 18th National Congress [5][6] - The government prioritizes high-quality and sufficient employment as a key objective in economic and social development [4][5] - Specific measures are being implemented to support employment for key demographics, including college graduates and migrant workers [4][5] Group 3: Social Security System - The government has made significant progress in expanding social security coverage, with over 1 billion people enrolled in basic pension insurance and nearly 1.3 billion in basic medical insurance [3][5] - The focus on improving the social security system is part of a broader strategy to ensure that the benefits of economic growth are shared among all citizens [3][4] - The establishment of a robust social safety net is seen as essential for maintaining social stability and promoting public welfare [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising importance and acceptance of vocational undergraduate education in China, highlighting its role in addressing employment needs and the evolving perceptions surrounding it [4][5][6]. Group 1: Vocational Education Development - Vocational undergraduate education, officially developed since 2019, aims to fill the gap in higher vocational education and is expected to have an enrollment scale not less than 10% of higher vocational education by 2025 [5][6]. - As of now, there are 87 vocational undergraduate institutions, with 36 having transitioned from specialized to undergraduate status this year [5][6]. - The demand for vocational education is driven by economic development and industrial transformation, emphasizing the need for skilled labor across various sectors [5][6]. Group 2: Student Experiences and Employment - Students from vocational undergraduate programs often have high academic scores, with some reporting scores above 550, which is competitive for traditional universities [6][7]. - Graduates express satisfaction with the practical training and resources provided, which they believe enhance their employability [8][10]. - The article notes that a significant percentage of students in vocational education are unable to enter traditional universities, making vocational education their only option [7][8]. Group 3: Challenges and Perceptions - Despite the high employment rates claimed by vocational institutions, there remains a stigma and misunderstanding about vocational education, with many still equating it to lower-tier education [6][7][24]. - Graduates face challenges in job applications, often encountering skepticism from employers regarding the legitimacy of their degrees [24][26]. - The article highlights the ongoing adjustments in public perception and institutional recognition of vocational degrees, with some regions still lagging in acceptance [26][28]. Group 4: Practical Training and Skills Development - Practical training is emphasized as a crucial component of vocational education, with a high coverage rate of simulation training in vocational institutions [12][13]. - Students report gaining hands-on experience that prepares them for real-world job scenarios, which is seen as a significant advantage over traditional academic paths [10][12]. - The article illustrates how practical skills and experiences can lead to better job security and adaptability in changing job markets [40][44]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the increasing choice of high-scoring students to pursue vocational education reflects a shift in societal values towards practical skills and job readiness over traditional academic prestige [40][45]. - There is optimism that as policies evolve and public perceptions shift, vocational education will gain greater acceptance and recognition in the job market [45].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the Federal Reserve's recent policy adjustments in response to rising unemployment risks and inflation concerns, indicating a potential shift towards interest rate cuts to support economic growth [1][2][3] - The Federal Reserve has abandoned the average inflation targeting strategy, reaffirming a long-term inflation target of 2%, which reflects a shift in its monetary policy framework [2] - The Fed's previous approach of maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy for an extended period, despite rising inflation, has been criticized for ignoring the complexities of the economic recovery post-pandemic [3] Group 2 - The recent speech by Fed Chairman Powell highlighted the need for a forward-looking monetary policy that considers the lagging effects of economic changes [3] - The Fed's revised statement emphasizes that full employment should be maintained in the context of price stability, moving away from setting numerical employment targets [3] - The unique nature of the current economic cycle, driven by external shocks such as the pandemic, has been acknowledged as a significant factor influencing the Fed's policy decisions [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This year, with Trump's return to the White House, U.S. policies have shifted significantly, increasing market attention to U.S. economic and financial trends. The report aims to build an analysis framework for tracking the U.S. economy, focusing on the core economic indicators of the U.S. household sector [2][11]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to U.S. GDP reached a record - high of 4.99%, mainly driven by a sharp decrease in imports. However, after excluding the contribution of net exports, the real GDP growth rate was - 2.0%, indicating a severe decline in domestic demand [28]. - The significant downward revision of non - farm data may be due to large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year, which affected data collection efficiency and increased the risk of statistical errors. There may also be other systematic factors [3][125]. - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In the optimistic, benchmark, and pessimistic scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4]. - In the "stagflation - like" situation, the Fed is in a dilemma. Powell signaled a 25bp interest rate cut in September, but the evolution of non - farm employment and inflation data in August needs to be verified. The report maintains the benchmark assumption of two 25bp interest rate cuts in September and December [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Five - Sector Perspective on the U.S. Economy Observation Starting Point - The report divides the U.S. economy into five core sectors: government, enterprise, household, finance, and overseas sectors. The household and enterprise sectors form the core "employment - consumption" cycle, and the government participates in resource reallocation [12]. 3.2 U.S. Q2 GDP: The "Apparent Prosperity" Driven by Net Exports - The U.S. GDP is calculated and released by the BEA. There are three estimates for each quarter, and annual overhauls are conducted in July. The GDP data is also seasonally adjusted [16]. - From 2020 - 2023, the U.S. GDP revision was large due to the impact of the pandemic. Since H2 2024, the revision has gradually converged, but the "reciprocal tariff" policy may cause the revision to increase again [17]. - Personal consumption expenditure is the most important component of U.S. GDP, with a long - term upward - trending share and a significant driving effect on economic growth. Net exports have a continuous negative contribution to GDP growth [24]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to GDP reached a record high, mainly due to a 15.1% month - on - month decrease in imports and a 1.7% increase in exports, narrowing the trade deficit by 50.8%. However, domestic demand declined seriously after excluding the contribution of net exports [28]. 3.3 Consumption Research Framework Based on Household Income and Expenditure - The U.S. consumption research can start from the income and expenditure of residents. Income is divided into five parts, with laborer compensation accounting for 57% and transfer payment income accounting for 18% in June 2025 [32]. - Personal disposable income is obtained by subtracting government social security contributions and personal current taxes from total income. From August 2023 to June 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of personal disposable income decreased significantly, weakening residents' consumption ability and confidence [33]. - U.S. personal consumption expenditure is divided into goods and services consumption. Since 2022, service consumption has made a greater contribution to GDP. In June 2025, the actual personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with goods consumption increasing by 2.9% and service consumption increasing by 1.7% [38][40]. - Retail sales data shows that in June 2025, the year - on - year and month - on - month retail sales increased, with miscellaneous goods retailers being the main driving force [45]. - The U.S. personal savings rate has fallen to 4.5%, lower than the pre - pandemic average. In the future, the savings rate may continue to rise, suppressing short - term consumption growth [51]. - Third - party data such as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and the Redbook Retail Sales Index can be used to verify U.S. consumption conditions. The overall consumption growth in the U.S. is slowing down [53][61]. 3.4 How to Track U.S. Employment after the "Non - Farm" Data Distortion 3.4.1 Employment Research Framework Based on Supply and Demand Sides - There are many employment - related data in the U.S., including JOLTS, CES, ADP, CPS, and UI. These data have different sample scopes, core indicators, advantages, and frequencies [63]. - JOLTS provides supplementary information on the demand side of the labor market. The job vacancy rate reflects the shortage of labor. Since 2022, the gap between job vacancies and hiring has narrowed, and the resignation rate has continued to decline [67][73][76]. - CES (non - farm data) has a wide coverage. In July, the number of new non - farm jobs was lower than expected, and the data for May and June was significantly revised downward. The hourly wage of the private sector increased, increasing inflation pressure [78][86]. - ADP data is based on real payroll records of private - sector employees, covering more than 25 million employees. It is released two days earlier than CES and can be used to perceive private - sector employment trends [91]. - CPS is a household - based survey that provides information on labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, and other indicators. In July, the labor force participation rate declined for four consecutive months, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [93][104]. - The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report provides high - frequency data on initial and continued claims for unemployment benefits, which can be used to predict economic inflection points [108]. 3.4.2 How Credible is the Non - Farm Data? - In May - June this year, the non - farm employment data was significantly revised downward, and the deviation of the revision reached a new high since 2010. The reasons given by the BLS are insufficient to fully explain the large - scale revision [116]. - It is more likely that large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year affected data collection efficiency, and there may be other systematic factors. The credibility of non - farm employment data has declined, and multiple independent data should be used for cross - verification [125]. 3.5 U.S. Inflation Monitoring and Tariff Impact Assessment 3.5.1 Inflation Status Monitoring and Expectation Analysis Framework - The report analyzes U.S. inflation from two aspects: status monitoring (focusing on CPI and PCE) and expectation analysis (introducing BEI and 5Y - 5Y BEI) [126]. - CPI and PCE are two core consumer inflation indicators. PCE is generally lower than CPI because of its chain - type update and wider coverage. The Fed prefers PCE [126][127]. - Core services are the main driver of U.S. inflation. In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of service CPI was 2.18%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.18% [130]. 3.5.2 Import Structure Split and Tariff Calculation: U.S. PCE May Face Phased Upward Pressure - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In different scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4].

Core Points - The "2025 Beijing Road Urban Job Fair" in Guangzhou aims to provide over 900 quality job opportunities across various sectors, addressing diverse job seeker needs [1][2] - The event features four functional areas: a financial zone for securities and insurance companies, a key employment area for high-demand positions, a new economy recruitment area for flexible jobs, and a policy consultation area for various employment services [1][2] Innovation Highlights - The introduction of the "Employment Bus" as a mobile interview space enhances communication between employers and job seekers, improving recruitment efficiency [2] - The event also includes a policy consultation area where staff provide one-on-one explanations of employment support policies, such as subsidies for graduates and social insurance benefits for flexible employment [2] Employment Trends - The increasing number of college graduates and changing employment expectations among young people present challenges for job matching, with a focus on high-quality employment [4] - Recommendations for job seekers include identifying career goals, enhancing skills, and adapting to new employment environments [4][5] Future Directions - The district plans to explore diversified recruitment service models and expand job opportunities, particularly in the biomedicine and life sciences sectors [5]