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默茨时代开启,专家详解中德经贸结构互补性|全球贸易观察
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-12 11:37
Group 1 - China has been Germany's largest trading partner for eight consecutive years since 2016, indicating strong bilateral trade relations [1][7] - The new German government, led by Merz, signifies a return to traditional policies, emphasizing the importance of maintaining economic ties with China [1][5] - A joint proposal from 36 German companies in China urges the new government to increase investments in China rather than reduce them, highlighting the need for a balanced approach to risk management [1][4] Group 2 - The complementary nature of the industrial structures between China and Germany remains strong, with certain sectors like aerospace and medical technology still competitive for Germany [2] - German companies view the Chinese market as crucial for their global competitiveness, with 92% of surveyed companies expressing a desire to remain in China [6] - The anticipated investment from German companies in China is projected to reach €5.7 billion in 2024, reflecting a 25% increase from the previous year [6] Group 3 - The new German government's coalition agreement emphasizes the necessity of cooperation with China while addressing the concept of "de-risking" [5] - There is a strong demand from the German business community for reduced bureaucratic barriers in bilateral investments, as previous restrictions on Chinese investments have been rolled back [4][5] - Germany's industrial policy is shifting focus towards future-oriented technologies, including AI and quantum computing, while still recognizing the importance of the Chinese market [8]
欧洲面临多重挑战强化战略自主
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-05-11 21:57
Group 1 - The European perception of the United States has shifted due to aggressive actions taken by the new U.S. government, leading to a reevaluation of strategic dependencies and a push for greater autonomy in Europe [1][2] - The European Commission has imposed fines of €500 million on Apple and €200 million on Meta for violations of the Digital Markets Act, which has escalated tensions between the EU and U.S. [1][2] - A recent poll indicates that 41% of British citizens believe the U.S. is doing bad things in the world, a significant increase of 16 percentage points from the previous year, reflecting a growing anti-American sentiment in Europe [2] Group 2 - The roots of the transatlantic rift stem from diverging values and institutional principles, as highlighted by U.S. Vice President's critical remarks about European democracy and media freedom during the Munich Security Conference [2] - Concerns over security have intensified in Europe, particularly due to the U.S. negotiating with Russia over the Ukraine crisis without European involvement, raising fears about NATO's commitment to European security [2][3] - The trust in economic relations between Europe and the U.S. has eroded, with calls for the EU to rebuild international trade frameworks and reduce reliance on U.S. markets [3] Group 3 - Europe is increasingly viewed as needing to strengthen its strategic autonomy, with experts suggesting that the U.S. role in global trade may be overestimated [3] - The EU is focusing on markets outside the U.S., emphasizing the potential for "de-Americanization" rather than "de-globalization" if the U.S. continues to adopt a confrontational stance [3] - In the information technology sector, Europe is taking steps to reduce dependence on U.S. technology, including the establishment of sovereign cloud services and measures to protect officials from U.S. surveillance [4] Group 4 - Europe is committed to maintaining a multilateral trade system, opposing U.S. protectionism, and supporting the principles of the World Trade Organization (WTO) [4][5] - Cooperation with China is becoming a significant aspect of Europe's strategic adjustments, with calls for deeper ties as a natural choice given the substantial bilateral trade volume of over €800 billion [5] - The shift in European policy towards China is seen as a strong indication of its commitment to strategic autonomy, diverging from U.S. approaches [5]
【财经分析】德国新政府仍将军工及数字化列为政府重点
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 09:30
当日市场表现受到波及,德国DAX指数在连续九日上涨后出现回调,市场短期震荡显现出对政治不确 定性的敏感。 经济振兴计划或快速提振市场 不过,随着默茨在第二轮成功当选并推动政府正式组建,市场氛围逐步回稳。德意志银行分析师穆尔贝 格(Marion Mühlberger)说:"只要新政府迅速启动其100天经济振兴计划,市场焦虑将迅速淡 化。"DAX此前已在3月创下23476点历史新高,关键支撑来自国防与基础设施投资预期。 默茨领导的黑红联盟已提出设立规模达5000亿欧元的基础设施基金,涵盖交通、能源、数字化等领域。 这一宏图计划有望在中长期提振建筑、机械制造、绿色能源与信息通信等板块表现。同时,德国长期债 券收益率在政局尘埃落定后上行至三周以来高位,反映出市场对财政扩张与资本需求的预期升温。 新华财经法兰克福5月8日电(记者马悦然)德国联邦议院6日举行总理选举,德国联盟党总理候选人弗 里德里希·默茨有惊无险,在首轮投票中意外失利后,最终在第二轮以325票当选新任德国总理。 选举当日,德国股市因默茨落选出现波动。DAX指数盘中一度跌破23000点,后因当选收复部分跌势, 最终收跌0.41%,中型股指数MDAX下跌0. ...
欧洲要变天了!冯德莱恩被逼辞职?27国表态,要给中国一个交代
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 19:12
据中国新闻网报道, 中国驻欧盟使团不久前回应欧盟第16轮对俄制裁列单中国企业和个人事,表示已向欧方提出严正交 涉,敦促欧方立即停止列单中国企业。有记者问,近日,欧盟宣布在第16轮对俄制裁中将部分中国企业和个人列入清 单。中方对此有何评论?中国驻欧盟使团发言人表示,中方一贯反对没有国际法依据、未经联合国安理会授权的单边制 裁。欧方做法于理无凭、于法无据,十分错误,中方表示强烈不满、坚决反对,已向欧方提出严正交涉。 冯德莱恩(资料图) 与此同时,欧盟的内部矛盾也愈发严重。表面上,欧盟一直高举一体化旗帜,但在实际操作中,各成员国始终各怀鬼 胎。然而,在经济放缓、财政捉襟见肘的当下,让各国掏钱、交出军权几乎是天方夜谭。法国、德国在表面上支持,实 际上却暗自争夺主导权,其他国家则干脆明里暗里抵制,形成了各自为政、难以成军的局面。而在这一连串困局的中 心,冯德莱恩的存在感变得异常刺眼。尤其在防务自主计划上,冯德莱恩提出投入8000亿欧元重新武装欧洲,企图摆脱 对美国军事依赖。 美国调停俄乌冲突时,欧盟甚至被排除在外。目前,让冯德莱恩辞职已成为解决中欧对抗的一个重要观点,在欧盟高层 也逐渐形成共识。西班牙和瑞士媒体甚至直接 ...
热点问答|默茨当选德国总理 面临怎样执政局面
Xin Hua She· 2025-05-06 17:30
新华财经柏林5月6日电(记者邰思聪李超) 在6日举行的德国联邦议院(议会下院)总理选举投票中, 德国联盟党总理候选人弗里德里希·默茨经过第一轮"落选"后,最终在当天第二轮投票中获得325票,成 功当选新任德国总理。选举过程如何?默茨是谁?上任后他将面临怎样的执政局面? 当选经历"过山车" 在今年2月举行的第21届德国联邦议院选举中,由基督教民主联盟(基民盟)与姊妹党基督教社会联盟 (基社盟)组成的德国联盟党得票率28.6%,领先其他政党,成为议会第一大党。德国联邦总统施泰因 迈尔随后根据各政党议席分布,提名赢得最多席位的政党领导人作为总理候选人。默茨以基民盟领导人 身份成为德国联盟党总理候选人。 默茨主张在移民问题上采取更强硬立场。他认为,只有消除公众对非法移民的担忧,才能阻止右翼极端 分子的崛起;在选民关心的经济议题上,默茨承诺重振德国经济,推动德国经济年均增长2%以上;在 外交政策上,他主张摆脱欧洲对美国的依赖,重建德国的国际地位,让德国成为"一个我们可以再次为 之骄傲的德国"。舆论认为,默茨将推行更保守的政治路线。 新政府面临压力 3月8日,德国联盟党与议会得票率第三的社会民主党(社民党)就组建联合政府 ...
欧洲遭遇大停电,现在还没查出原因?病根其实很清晰
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-03 12:37
前几天,人称"发达国家守门员"的西班牙,遭遇了一场诡异的全国性停电,说从当天中午开始,西班牙全国,葡萄牙和法国的部分地区,都出现了大规模的 停电。 包括机场、火车站、交通信号灯、网络、电话等服务瞬间中断,西班牙6000多万人口,瞬间回到原始社会。很快,民众陷入恐慌,开始大量囤积生活物资, 很多超市被扫荡一空。整个停电过程持续约10个小时,部分地区直到24小时之后才有电。 对我们中国来说,这种停电的规模和时长,已经是上世纪7、80年代的事。所以很多网友的第一反应是,西班牙遭遇了类似"北溪管道爆炸案"的攻击。毕竟 前段时间,西班牙首相刚来中国访问过,释放了很多对华友好信号,有人对此不满也是正常的。 但很快,西班牙政府,欧盟委员会就出面辟谣,说没有迹象表明是网络攻击或其他方式的人为破坏。既然欧委会没有甩锅给俄罗斯或中国黑客,那确实不像 是有人搞破坏。 但停电到底是为什么,直到现在也没查清。一些部门说可能是电缆问题,一些媒体说和西班牙最近的极端天气有关。而且前段时间,西班牙刚达成了全国24 小时用电靠新能源的成就,众所周知,新能源供电最大的问题就是不稳定,会给电网造成很大的负担。 但不管怎么说,这依然是一件让人难以置 ...
能源断供、核威慑、北约内讧…欧洲在俄乌战场输掉的不止尊严
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 22:57
Group 1 - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has evolved into a significant geopolitical crisis affecting European security, with leaders in Europe closely monitoring the situation [1][2] - Russia's vast territory and nuclear capabilities create a sense of vulnerability among neighboring countries, despite its relatively small GDP compared to regions like Guangdong, China [2] - Historical precedents of failed confrontations with Russia have led to a cautious approach among European nations, balancing defense strategies with energy dependencies on Russia [4][6] Group 2 - NATO's military deployments in Eastern Europe reflect a psychological response to historical conflicts, revealing divisions within the alliance regarding military support for Ukraine and energy negotiations with Russia [4][11] - The emergence of pro-Russian movements in neighboring countries like Moldova and Kazakhstan indicates a potential expansion of Russian influence, raising concerns about future territorial ambitions [7] - The reliance on nuclear deterrence in Europe highlights the inadequacy of conventional military forces against Russia, with fears of nuclear incidents further complicating the security landscape [9][13] Group 3 - The economic repercussions of sanctions against Russia have led to significant inflation and supply chain disruptions in Europe, causing public discontent and political tensions within the EU [11][13] - The internal discord among EU member states regarding energy policies and military strategies undermines their collective ability to effectively counter Russian aggression [11][13] - The long-term consequences of strategic miscalculations regarding Russia are becoming evident, with calls for a reassessment of Europe's geopolitical stance and energy dependencies [13]
加拿大自由党胜选 执政前景挑战多
Xin Hua She· 2025-04-30 09:49
新华社北京4月30日电 加拿大媒体4月29日公布的计票估算结果显示,3月才上任总理的加拿大自由 党领袖马克·卡尼成功连任,自由党所赢联邦众议院议席数距成为多数党所需席位仅差三席。而先前一 度无限接近总理一职的反对党保守党党首皮埃尔·普瓦列夫尔连议席都没保住。 卡尼29日与获称为自由党胜选送上"神助攻"的美国总统唐纳德·特朗普通电话。加方称两位领导人 同意近期面对面会晤,而白宫却仍称加拿大为美国"第51州"。卡尼自己也承认,今后他需带领加拿大迎 接艰巨挑战。 接近多数席位 据加拿大广播公司估算,自由党将赢得343个众议院议席中的169个,比获得多数席位所需172席仅 少三席。保守党将赢得144席,但该党党首、三个月前还在民意调查中大幅领先的普瓦列夫尔丢掉已坐 了20年的议席。另一主要反对党新民主党则经历惨败,仅赢7席,其党首贾格米特·辛格同样败选,已宣 布辞去党首职务。 据法新社分析,加拿大四分之三出口产品销往美国,特朗普政府的关税、特别是针对汽车和钢铁领 域的关税,已开始损害加拿大经济。 据路透社报道,仅个别选区需重新清点选票,大选正式结果料将数天内公布。据美联社报道,自由 党仍需争取另一小党支持以通过立法, ...
打破“思想钢印”,构建中欧多边主义联合阵线
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-04-24 07:21
Group 1 - The U.S. government's imposition of tariffs represents a declaration of war on the global trade system and a shock therapy to the post-World War II international order [1] - Europe faces a historical choice between continuing to be a pawn in U.S. geopolitical games or partnering with China to uphold multilateralism [1][4] - The concept of "strategic autonomy" in Europe is contradicted by its actions, revealing a collective unconscious that rationalizes U.S. hegemony [2] Group 2 - The U.S. tariffs could lead to significant export losses for Europe, particularly an estimated €85 billion for EU goods, highlighting the severe consequences of protectionism [3] - The trade relationship between China and Europe has grown substantially, with trade increasing from $2.4 billion to $780 billion and investments rising to nearly $260 billion, indicating a strong interdependence [3] - Europe must defend multilateralism rather than succumb to protectionism, as this could lead to innovation stagnation and missed opportunities for global supply chain leadership [3][4] Group 3 - A partnership between China and Europe could serve as a beacon for multilateralism, emphasizing cooperation over confrontation and shared prosperity [4] - The need for Europe to break free from the constraints of "thought steel stamps" is crucial for achieving true strategic autonomy [2][4] - The future of the world should not be monopolized by any single nation but should belong to all who believe in collaboration and openness [4]
36万亿美债不还了?特朗普拒绝谈和,中国忍无可忍,断美“命脉”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-03-28 16:08
Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion as of the end of 2024, representing a nearly 40% increase since 2020, with an annual growth rate of 9%, significantly outpacing GDP growth [1][3] - The U.S. government has implemented three large-scale stimulus packages totaling $5 trillion since the COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to a persistent increase in the fiscal deficit [1][3] - Interest payments on U.S. federal debt are projected to reach $882 billion in 2024, exceeding the defense budget for the first time, which equates to the cost of burning 20 F-35 fighter jets daily [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. is facing a political deadlock, with the Republican Party demanding $4.5 trillion in spending cuts over the next decade, while the Democratic Party blames the debt surge on a $2 trillion stimulus package from the Trump administration [3][5] - International rating agencies have downgraded the U.S. credit outlook, with Moody's predicting a loss of 7 million jobs and a 4% economic contraction if a default lasts for six weeks [3][5] Group 3 - China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. debt from a peak of $1.3 trillion in 2013 to $759 billion, while simultaneously increasing its gold reserves to 2,300 tons, becoming the world's largest gold buyer for 18 consecutive months [5][6] - The global economic landscape is shifting as countries accelerate de-dollarization efforts, with the share of the U.S. dollar in global reserves dropping from 73% in 2001 to 58%, the lowest in 25 years [6][8] Group 4 - The crisis is fundamentally a challenge to U.S. hegemony, as countries like Russia and India are increasing their gold reserves and promoting alternative currency settlement systems [6][8] - China is positioning itself as a responsible global leader by proposing initiatives for emerging market infrastructure and expanding cooperation among BRICS nations, contrasting with the U.S. approach of zero-sum games [8]