1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.80%, showing a pattern of increasing volume and decreasing positions. The supply - demand of rebar remained weak, and the fundamentals continued the seasonal weakness. However, the low inventory and policy expectations, along with strong raw materials, provided cost support. It was expected that the rebar price would continue to fluctuate and stabilize [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate rose with a daily increase of 1.23%, and both volume and positions expanded. The supply of hot - rolled coil decreased while the demand was resilient. The fundamentals improved, inventory decreased again, and policy expectations and strong raw materials supported the price. It was expected to run in a moderately strong oscillation, but the risk of weak external demand should be guarded against [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore was strong with a daily increase of 1.81%, and both volume and positions expanded. In the current supply - demand weak situation, the fundamentals of iron ore were weakly stable. Policy expectations and optimism supported the high - level and strong operation of ore prices, but the valuation was high, and a shift in the trading logic to the industrial side should be guarded against [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the output of major machinery and equipment in China showed different performances. The output of excavators, metal - cutting machine tools, and metal - forming machine tools increased significantly, with year - on - year growth of 12.4%, 13.5%, and 10.4% respectively. The output of small tractors decreased significantly, with a year - on - year decline of 15.8% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the output of four major household appliances in China was released. The output of washing machines increased by 10.3% year - on - year. The output of air conditioners increased by 5.5% year - on - year, the output of refrigerators remained flat year - on - year, and the output of color TVs decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [7]. - In the first half of 2025, China's rebar output was 98.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The output of medium - thick wide steel strips increased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the output of wire rods increased by 0.6% year - on - year [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The report provided a black metal spot quotation table, including prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, and prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The report presented a table of the main contract futures prices, including the closing price, increase or decrease, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, volume difference, open interest, and position difference of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, and iron ore [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report included charts of steel and iron ore inventory (rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore at 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines), steel mill production (247 sample steel mills' blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, profit - making steel mills' proportion, 87 independent electric furnace start - up rate, and 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profit and loss situation) [13][18][27]. 3.5 Future Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply - demand remained weak. The weekly output decreased by 7.60 tons week - on - week, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 15.33 tons week - on - week. Due to low inventory, policy expectations, and cost support from strong raw materials, the price was expected to continue to fluctuate and stabilize [36]. - Hot - rolled coil plate: The supply decreased by 2.00 tons week - on - week, and the demand was resilient with an increase of 1.28 tons week - on - week. The fundamentals improved, and the price was expected to run in a moderately strong oscillation, but the risk of weak external demand should be guarded against [37]. - Iron ore: Both supply and demand weakened. The terminal consumption of ore decreased, and the supply also contracted. Policy expectations supported the high - level and strong operation of ore prices, but a shift in the trading logic to the industrial side should be guarded against [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly weaker. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that optimistic sentiment dominates and the ore price runs strongly [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable. The production of steel mills in the off - season is weakening, the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline but remains at a relatively high level, and the profitability of steel mills is good, providing support for the ore price. The port arrivals have increased significantly, but the shipments of miners are weak. The subsequent arrivals are expected to decrease, and the supply of overseas and domestic ore is shrinking. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of ore are weakly stable, and policy - driven positive expectations support the high - level and strong operation of ore prices, but the valuation is high, and there is a risk of the trading logic switching to the industrial side [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, the short - term is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is oscillating and slightly weaker. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the dominance of optimistic sentiment and the strong operation of ore prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable. The terminal consumption of ore is declining but still at a high level, and the profitability of steel mills provides support for the ore price. The port arrivals have increased, but miner shipments are weak, and the subsequent supply is expected to shrink. The fundamentals are weakly stable, and policy - driven positive expectations support the high - level operation of ore prices, but there is a risk of trading logic switching [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.16%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, rebar shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have not improved. Steel prices are prone to pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factors are low inventory and cost support from strong raw materials. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a stable and fluctuating trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil was running at a high level with a daily increase of 0.09%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, and the fundamentals are weakly stable with a slight increase in inventory. However, the expected policy benefits are fermenting, and combined with strong raw materials, the price of hot - rolled coil maintains a relatively strong operation. Be wary of the fermentation of overseas tariff risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.26%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. Currently, the expected policy benefits have improved market sentiment, driving the iron ore price back to a high level. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of iron ore have not changed substantially, and the valuation has risen to a relatively high level. It is expected that the iron ore price will turn into a high - level fluctuating and consolidating trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%; imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.7%. In June, imports, exports, and exports all achieved positive year - on - year growth, and the growth rates were rising [6]. - At the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. In the first half of the year, net cash injection was 363.3 billion yuan. The balance of local and foreign currency loans at the end of June was 272.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The balance of RMB loans at the end of the month was 268.56 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan [7]. - In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, China imported 470,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; from January to June, the cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%. In June, China imported 105.948 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 7.817 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 8.0%; from January to June, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 592.205 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,180, 3,190, and 3,292 respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and - 3 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,300, 3,200, and 3,307 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 10, and - 2 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,960 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,110 with an increase of 30. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 120 with an increase of 10, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,070 with a decrease of 40 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 749 with a decrease of 1, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 702 with no change. The sea freight from Australia was 7.75 with an increase of 0.37, and from Brazil was 19.33 with an increase of 0.92. The SGX swap (current month) was 97.80 with an increase of 0.20, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 98.30 with a decrease of 0.25 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,138, with a daily increase of 0.16%. The highest price was 3,143, the lowest price was 3,122, the trading volume was 1,164,609 with a decrease of 489,936, and the open interest was 2,122,341 with a decrease of 78,184 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,276, with a daily increase of 0.09%. The highest price was 3,281, the lowest price was 3,256, the trading volume was 454,659 with a decrease of 155,211, and the open interest was 1,580,291 with a decrease of 19,457 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 766.5, with a daily increase of 0.26%. The highest price was 769.5, the lowest price was 763.0, the trading volume was 239,244 with a decrease of 121,405, and the open interest was 664,821 with an increase of 2,959 [11]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Both supply and demand have weakened. The output of rebar decreased by 44,200 tons week - on - week due to steel mill conversion, but the supply is still at a relatively high level this year, and the sustainability of production reduction is questionable. The demand for rebar is weakly stable, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 33,700 tons week - on - week, and the high - frequency daily trading volume significantly shrinking. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a stable and fluctuating trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [36]. - Hot - rolled coil: Both supply and demand have weakened. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 50,000 tons week - on - week due to steel mill adjustment, but the supply is still at a high level this year, and the pressure relief is limited. The demand for hot - rolled coil is less resilient, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 18,600 tons week - on - week, and the high - frequency trading volume also shrinking. The price of hot - rolled coil maintains a relatively strong operation, but be wary of the fermentation of overseas tariff risks [37]. - Iron ore: Both supply and demand have weakened. The consumption of iron ore by steel mills has continued to decline, and the arrival of ore at ports has increased significantly week - on - week, but the shipment of miners has continued to decline. It is expected that the iron ore price will turn into a high - level fluctuating and consolidating trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [38].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with no substantial change in the fundamentals. The market sentiment is warming up due to the recent fermentation of favorable policy expectations, which supports the iron ore price to maintain a relatively strong operation. However, beware of the trading logic switching to the industrial side [2]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term trend is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term trend is oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating and slightly weaker. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the market sentiment is positive and the ore price is at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand. During the off - season, steel mill production weakens, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. But steel mills have good profitability, so the demand reduction space is limited. On the supply side, although port arrivals have increased, after the end - of - fiscal - year shipment rush, miners' shipments have decreased significantly, overseas ore supply has shrunk, and domestic ore production has also weakened. The fundamentals of the ore market have no substantial change under the weak supply - demand situation, and industrial contradictions are limited [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The continued upward trend of the stock index requires policy support, and the market risk preference is positive in the near term [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term trend is oscillating, the medium - term trend is rising, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is also oscillating strongly. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is oscillating strongly. The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and slightly corrected yesterday. The total stock market turnover was 1527.4 billion yuan, an increase of 52.8 billion yuan from the previous day, and more than 3300 stocks fell. The inflation data in June showed weak domestic demand. The rebound of the stock index since late June was driven by policy expectations. The domestic inflation is weak, and the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, while external demand may be affected by tariffs. Policy support is needed, and the market is waiting for the policy implementation after the Politburo meeting in July. So the stock index will oscillate strongly in the short term [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuated, recording a daily decline of 0.13%, with volume and open interest contracting. In the current situation, the rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand. The steel price in the off - season continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory level with few real - world contradictions. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuated, recording a daily decline of 0.06%, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. At present, the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are mainly stable. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory continues to accumulate. However, the expectation of policy benefits is fermenting. Under the game of long and short factors, the hot - rolled coil price continues to fluctuate at a high level. Be cautious of the trading logic switching to the industrial end [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuated and rebounded, recording a daily increase of 0.14%, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. At present, after the end of the "exemption period", the tariff disturbance reappears, and the market sentiment weakens. The iron ore price has fallen after fluctuating at a high level. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the iron ore fundamentals are weakly stable. In the short term, the iron ore price is likely to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Tariff announcement**: US President Trump announced on July 7, 2025, that the US will impose tariffs on products from Indonesia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Tunisia starting from August 1, 2025, with rates ranging from 25% to 36% [6]. - **Excavator sales**: In June 2025, 18,804 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. From January to June 2025, a total of 120,520 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 16.8% [7]. - **Iron ore production of Ferrexpo**: Due to the Ukrainian government's suspension of the VAT refund policy, Ferrexpo's operating cash flow was under pressure in Q2 2025. The company reduced the pellet production line from two to one, resulting in a significant decline in iron ore production [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The national average prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased by 2 yuan. The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin remained unchanged, while the price of hot - rolled coil in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder in Shandong ports increased by 1 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil changed slightly, and the SGX swap and the Platts Index decreased [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price was 3,063 yuan, a decline of 0.13%. The trading volume was 954,572 lots, a decrease of 271,730 lots, and the open interest was 2,168,547 lots, a decrease of 28,783 lots [11]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price was 3,191 yuan, a decline of 0.06%. The trading volume was 341,788 lots, a decrease of 148,639 lots, and the open interest was 1,593,691 lots, an increase of 8,136 lots [11]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price was 733.0 yuan, an increase of 0.14%. The trading volume was 233,496 lots, a decrease of 57,393 lots, and the open interest was 655,157 lots, an increase of 7,312 lots [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including the inventory of steel mills and social inventory [13][14][16]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts present the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as the seasonal inventory of 45 ports [18][19][24]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts display the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [28][30][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has little change. Supply continues to rise to a high level this year, while demand remains weak in the off - season. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [36]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply and demand are mainly stable. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory continues to accumulate. Policy benefits are expected, but the price may switch to the industrial logic. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [36]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and the inventory has increased again. The terminal consumption of ore has declined slightly. The supply has shrunk. The ore price is likely to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [37].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪趋弱，钢矿高位震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡下行，录得 0.68%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 政策利好预期驱动钢价震荡走高，但螺纹钢基本面延续季节性弱势，上 行驱动不强，相对利好则是低库存格局未变，多空因素博弈下钢价维持 震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价高位震荡，录得 0.62%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热卷供需两端平稳运行为主，基本面并未好转，库存持续累库，但 政策利好预期再度发酵，乐观情绪支撑下热卷价格短期维持偏强运行态 势，谨防交易逻辑切换至产业端。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡回落，录得 0.68%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，政策利好预期再现，乐观情绪发酵，支撑矿价震荡上行，但矿石供 需格局在走弱，上行驱动不强，后续走势谨慎乐观，关注成材表现情 况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "upward", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a stronger bias", with the overall view being "oscillation with a stronger bias" due to strong support from positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a stronger bias", the medium - term view is "upward", and the reference view is "oscillation with a stronger bias". In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate within a range, and continuous attention should be paid to the realization of positive policy expectations [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, short - term is defined as within a week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term is "oscillation", medium - term is "upward", intraday is "oscillation with a stronger bias", and the overall view is "oscillation with a stronger bias". The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and sorted, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. The total market turnover of the stock market was 1454.5 billion yuan, an increase of 121 billion yuan compared with the previous day. Due to the considerable increase in each stock index since late June, the upward momentum of the stock index has slowed down. From a macro and policy perspective, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to the impact of tariff factors. More positive policies to stabilize economic demand and market expectations are needed in the second half of the year, which is the main logic for this round of stock index rebound. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the Politburo meeting in July. In the short term, the liquidity at the beginning of the month is relatively loose, and the fading of overseas geopolitical factors and the easing of tariff factors have also boosted the risk appetite of the stock market [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils have changed little, with stable production in plate mills. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 0.90 million tons, remaining stable at a high level, and the supply pressure has not eased. Meanwhile, the demand for hot-rolled coils is weakly stable, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing slightly by 1.88 million tons. The high-frequency transactions have increased under the stimulation of speculative demand, and the cold-rolled production of major downstream industries remains at a high level, which alleviates the industrial contradiction and supports the demand for hot-rolled coils. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory continues to accumulate. However, due to the renewed fermentation of policy-friendly expectations, the price of hot-rolled coils will maintain a relatively strong operation in the short term, but beware of the trading logic switching to the industrial side [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 328.14 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.90 million tons, and an increase of 0.90 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it increased by 1.85 million tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.29%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.54 percentage points, and a decrease of 0.54 percentage points from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it increased by 1.21 percentage points [2] Demand - The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is 324.37 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.88 million tons, and a decrease of 1.88 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it increased by 6.67 million tons. The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 88.23 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.17 million tons, and an increase of 0.17 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it increased by 2.71 million tons [2] Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 344.93 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.77 million tons, and an increase of 3.77 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it decreased by 76.46 million tons. The in-plant inventory is 78.32 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.10 million tons, and an increase of 0.10 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it decreased by 12.03 million tons. The social inventory is 266.61 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.67 million tons, and an increase of 3.67 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it decreased by 64.43 million tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is oscillating and slightly strong, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly weak. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, leading to the oscillating rise of steel prices [2]. - Policy利好 expectations are fermenting, and market sentiment is warm. Rebar futures prices continue to oscillate higher. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. Construction steel mills are actively producing, and weekly output is increasing, with supply pressure reaching a high level. Demand is running smoothly, and high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded under the stimulation of speculative demand, but they are still at a low level in the same period, and the improvement space in the off - season is questionable. The supply and demand at both ends have increased, and the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is prone to pressure in the off - season. The relatively good news is that the inventory is low, the real - world contradiction is not significant, and recent policy利好 is fermenting, supporting the short - term strong operation of steel prices. Attention should be paid to the policy implementation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly strong, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly weak. The reference view is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the game between expectations and reality, leading to the oscillating rise of steel prices [2]. - The calculation method of the rise - fall range is based on the night - session closing price for varieties with night sessions and the previous day's closing price for varieties without night sessions as the starting price, and the day - session closing price on the same day as the ending price. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered oscillating and slightly weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered oscillating and slightly strong, and a rise of more than 1% is considered a rise. Oscillating and slightly strong/weak are only for intraday views, and no distinction is made for the short - term and medium - term [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Policy利好 expectations are fermenting, market sentiment is warm, and rebar futures prices continue to oscillate higher [3]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. Construction steel mills are actively producing, weekly output is increasing, and supply pressure has reached a high level. Demand is running smoothly, high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded under the stimulation of speculative demand, but they are still at a low level in the same period, and the improvement space in the off - season is questionable [3]. - The supply and demand at both ends have increased, and the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is prone to pressure in the off - season. The relatively good news is that the inventory is low, the real - world contradiction is not significant, and recent policy利好 is fermenting, supporting the short - term strong operation of steel prices. Attention should be paid to the policy implementation [3].