2025.06. 26 本文字数：2261，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 备受市场关注的"国补"资金，有了新进展。 国家发改委政策研究室副主任李超26日在发布会上表示，将在7月下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资 金。 李超表示，将更加注重"时序性"和"均衡性"的原则，分领域制定落实到每月、每周的"国补"资金使用 计划，保障消费品以旧换新政策全年有序实施。 面对外部环境的不确定性增加，下半年稳增长政策仍需加力，消费品以旧换新等扩内需政策措施有望 继续优化升级。李超强调，当前外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性有所增加，全球经贸稳定增长 面临挑战，这些都会影响经济平稳运行。随着存量政策加快落地见效，新的储备政策陆续出台实施， 我们有信心、有能力把外部冲击的不确定性和不利影响降到最低，推动经济持续健康发展。 确保"两新"全年有序实施 今年以来，各地持续加力扩围"两新"政策，有力推动消费潜力加速释放。 从最新经济数据来看，5月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，增速是2024年以来最高水平，消 费成为拉动经济增长的重要引擎。其中，消费品以旧换新政策发挥了重要作用。 李超介绍，消费品以旧换新方面，超长期特 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy is expected to run smoothly in Q2, but Q3 may face challenges due to changes in the external environment [85] - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and a total of 50 basis points in the second half of the year, providing room for domestic interest rate cuts [85] - The central bank is expected to continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is a possibility of another policy rate cut in the second half of the year [85] - Considering the expectation of future interest rate cuts, a strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [85] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Disk Review - **Treasury Futures Active Contract Trends**: Since November 2024, the treasury futures market has been advancing ahead of schedule, rising sharply until January 2025. After the central bank announced the suspension of open - market treasury bond purchases on January 10, the 30 - year variety reached a high in early February and then fell until mid - March, followed by a rebound. In early April, due to the US tariff news, prices rose, then consolidated. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade joint statement on May 12, prices slightly declined and then fluctuated narrowly. In June, with the decline in capital interest rates, prices rose slightly [7] - **Treasury Bond Spot Yield Trends**: Most treasury bond spot yields reached their lows in early January, over - reacting to the "moderately loose monetary policy." After the central bank's announcement on January 10, yields rebounded. After the Spring Festival, rising capital interest rates and a strong stock market pushed bond yields up. Short - term interest rates rebounded faster than long - term ones. The 10 - year treasury bond yield reached 1.90% in mid - March, then dropped rapidly in early April due to tariff news and stabilized later. The latest 10 - year yield is around 1.65% [10] - **Treasury Bond Spot Yield Curve Changes**: As of June 25, compared with the end of last year, the treasury bond spot yield curve showed a distorted flattening. The 2 - year yield rose 23 basis points to 1.37%, the 5 - year rose 10 basis points to 1.52%, the 10 - year dropped 3 basis points to 1.65%, and the 30 - year dropped 5 basis points to 1.86% [12] 2. Current Analysis - **Investment**: From January to May, national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0%. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42%, narrow - sense infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, and manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%. Real estate development investment decreased by 10.7%. The issuance of "two - major" projects is approaching [16] - **Real Estate**: From January to May, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 3.8%. In May, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, and those in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5%. As of June 25, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 6% year - on - year [18][21][23] - **Consumption**: In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 4.9%. The sales of household appliances, communication equipment and other categories increased significantly. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.94% month - on - month, and consumer demand is accelerating its release [25][27][30] - **Service Industry**: In May, the national service industry production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year, with relatively fast growth in information technology, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries [32] - **Foreign Trade**: In May, China's exports increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4%. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased significantly [35][38] - **Industry**: In May, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly higher than the market expectation. The product sales rate of large - scale industrial enterprises was 95.9% [41][43] - **Employment**: In May, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [46] - **Prices**: In May, CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. The decline of the agricultural product wholesale price index slowed down in June, and gasoline prices increased, which may promote the rebound of consumer prices [49][52][56] - **Social Financing**: In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, higher than the market expectation. The net financing of government bonds increased significantly, while the increase in RMB loans to the real economy decreased year - on - year [61] - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index declined after reaching a high in January. The US dollar against the RMB dropped to around 7.17 on June 25. The CFETS RMB exchange rate index showed a downward trend in the first half of the year [67] - **Interest Rate Spread**: The Sino - US 10 - year treasury bond interest rate spread mostly remained above 2.5%, which restricted the flexibility of domestic interest rate cuts to some extent [69] - **Fed's Policy**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and a total of 50 basis points in the second half of the year [71] - **Capital Interest Rate**: After the central bank cut interest rates on May 8, the market capital interest rate declined [73] - **Government Bond Financing**: As of June 25, the net financing of government bonds in June was 1408.8 billion yuan, and the total net financing in the first six months was 7.8 trillion yuan, much higher than that in the same period in 2024 [76] - **Treasury Bond Term Spread**: The 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bond term spread narrowed from the end of last year to April and then rebounded slightly. The 30 - year and 10 - year spread fluctuated around 0.2% [80] 3. Strategy Suggestions - The Chinese economy may face challenges in the third quarter due to external environment changes The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, providing room for domestic interest rate cuts The central bank is expected to continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is a possibility of another policy rate cut in the second half of the year Considering the expectation of future interest rate cuts, a strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [85]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In May, China's fixed - asset investment growth was lower than market expectations, and the growth rates of infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate investment were all lower than those in April. Consumption growth in May was significantly better than market expectations, but it may not be sustainable. Industrial production maintained stable and rapid growth in May. China's exports showed resilience in May. The Chinese economy is expected to operate steadily in the second quarter. There is uncertainty in global economic and trade relations, which may pose challenges to China's economic growth in the third quarter [83]. Summary by Related Content 1. Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to May, national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0% and the 4.0% growth from January to April. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42% year - on - year from January to May, down from 10.85% in January - April. Narrow infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6% year - on - year from January to May, down from 5.8% in January - April. Manufacturing investment increased by 8.5% year - on - year from January to May, in line with market expectations but lower than the 8.8% growth in January - April. National real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year from January to May, more than the 10.3% decline in January - April [4]. - From January to May, equipment and tool purchase investment increased by 17.3% year - on - year, with a contribution rate of 63.6% to the growth of total investment and driving total investment growth by 2.3 percentage points [6]. 2. Real Estate - From January to May, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 3.8% year - on - year [9]. - In May, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month. In second - and third - tier cities, the sales price of second - hand residential properties decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [12]. - From June 1 - 25, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 260,000 square meters, a 6% year - on - year decrease [14]. - The national second - hand housing price is in a bottom - grinding state, and the decline rate this year is slower than last year [16]. 3. Consumption - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.1326 trillion yuan, a 6.4% year - on - year increase, higher than the market expectation of 4.9%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year - on - year [19]. - In May, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, communication equipment, and other categories had relatively large year - on - year increases. The retail sales of basic necessities and some upgraded consumer goods also showed good growth momentum [21]. - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.94% month - on - month. The consumer goods replacement policy and the "618" e - commerce promotion activities accelerated the release of consumption demand. A total of 162 billion yuan of central funds have been allocated in the first and second quarters this year, and 138 billion yuan will be allocated in the third and fourth quarters [24]. - From January to May, the total service retail sales increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The retail sales of tourism consulting and leasing services, cultural and recreational services showed good growth, and catering revenue increased by 5.0% year - on - year [26]. 4. Exports and Imports - In May, China's exports increased by 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports decreased by 3.4% year - on - year. The trade surplus was 103.22 billion US dollars [32]. - In May, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 14.84% year - on - year, exports to the EU increased by 12.02% year - on - year, and exports to the US decreased by 34.52% year - on - year [35]. - In May, China's exports to regions other than the top five export destinations continued to grow at a high rate, with a year - on - year increase of 11.69% [38]. 5. Industrial Production - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly higher than the market expectation of 5.7% [41]. - In May, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry above the designated size increased by 9.0% year - on - year, and the added value of the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 8.6% year - on - year [43]. - In May, the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 95.9%, a 0.7 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease [46]. 6. Employment - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [49]. - In May, the unemployment rate of 16 - 24 - year - old labor force (excluding students) in urban areas was 14.9%, 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [52]. 7. Prices - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The year - on - month decline in CPI was mainly affected by the decrease in energy prices [54][57]. - In May, the PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, with the decline continuing for three consecutive months [67][68]. 8. Social Financing and Credit - In May, the scale of social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, higher than the market expectation of 2.05 trillion yuan [72]. - In May, the RMB loans in the credit scope increased by 620 billion yuan, lower than the market expectation of 800 billion yuan [74]. - At the end of May, the balance of broad money (M2) was 325.78 trillion yuan, a 7.9% year - on - year increase, and the balance of narrow money (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, a 2.3% year - on - year increase [76]. - At the end of May, the stock of social financing scale increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the balance of RMB loans increased by 7.1% year - on - year [79].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is intensifying policies to boost domestic consumption, particularly through the "old-for-new" program for consumer goods, in response to increasing external uncertainties and economic challenges [2][5]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to issue the third batch of "old-for-new" funds in July, emphasizing a more timely and balanced approach to fund allocation [2][4]. - The total support for the "old-for-new" program includes 300 billion yuan from special long-term bonds, with 162 billion yuan already distributed in the first two batches [3][4]. - The program has significantly contributed to the retail sector, with a reported 6.4% year-on-year growth in social retail sales in May, marking the highest growth rate in 2024 [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has led to a surge in sales of related products, exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan this year, with notable growth in the county-level markets [3][7]. - From May 1 to June 21, county-level home appliance sales increased by 47%, and "old-for-new" sales rose by 54%, indicating a new peak in sales [3]. - The focus on upgrading consumption patterns is evident, with sales of high-end appliances increasing by 73% in the first five months of the year [3][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The government aims to further enhance the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" policy by expanding the categories of supported products and improving the quality of goods [7][8]. - There is a strong emphasis on collaboration between fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies to ensure timely fund allocation and stimulate consumer spending [8]. - The focus will also be on supporting low-income groups and promoting service-oriented consumption, particularly in sectors like education and healthcare [7][8].

Economic Development - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) expresses confidence and capability to promote sustained and healthy economic development despite external uncertainties and challenges [2][3] - Recent adjustments in global economic growth forecasts by the World Bank and OECD highlight the resilience of China's economic outlook, with several international investment banks raising their growth predictions for China [3] Policy Implementation - The NDRC plans to implement a loan interest subsidy policy for equipment updates and will allocate the third batch of funds for the "old for new" consumption policy in July [5][7] - The "Two New" policy has shown effectiveness, with significant funding allocated: 200 billion yuan for equipment updates and 300 billion yuan for consumption upgrades, with over 1.4 trillion yuan in sales from related products this year [6][7] Energy Supply - The electricity supply-demand situation for the summer peak is expected to be better than last year, with a projected increase of approximately 10 million kilowatts in peak electricity load [8][9] - The NDRC is enhancing energy supply capabilities through various measures, including daily monitoring and coordination to ensure stable fuel supply for power generation [9] Sports and Cultural Tourism - The rising popularity of community sports events reflects a strong public interest in diverse sports and fitness activities, indicating significant potential for the sports and cultural tourism industries [11] - The NDRC aims to expand public fitness facilities, promote high-quality outdoor sports development, and integrate sports with cultural tourism to enhance community engagement and industry growth [10][12]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will issue the third batch of funds for the "trade-in" policy in July, ensuring a year-round implementation of the program [5] - The new operational approach emphasizes a monthly and weekly funding plan for different sectors, which aims to ensure orderly and balanced use of central funds for trade-ins [5][6] - Concerns have been raised about the uneven pace of fund usage across regions, with developed areas like the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta potentially facing fund shortages, while inland provinces may not fully utilize their allocated funds [5] Group 2 - The implementation of the trade-in policy will require manufacturers to adapt to new challenges related to production, inventory, and advertising due to the disrupted funding rhythm [5][6] - The emphasis on local funding usage aims to prevent funds from being allocated outside their respective provinces, addressing previous issues of fund misallocation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "National Subsidy" program for consumer goods replacement is not being canceled, and significant funding is allocated to support it, with a total of 3 trillion yuan planned for this year [1][2]. Group 1: Funding and Allocation - A total of 1,620 billion yuan in central funding has been allocated in two batches for the "National Subsidy" program, with 1,380 billion yuan remaining to be distributed [1][2]. - The funding for the consumer goods replacement program is divided into three parts: central long-term special bond funds (3 trillion yuan), local matching funds based on a 9:1 ratio, and additional local funds as needed [2]. - The distribution of the 3 trillion yuan is based on factors such as population, GDP, and previous program performance, favoring regions with better results [2]. Group 2: Impact on Sales - The consumer goods replacement policy has significantly boosted sales, with related product sales exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan this year [3][4]. - Over 6.8 million vehicles have been replaced under the program, and more than 36 million consumers have purchased over 56 million units of major household appliances [3]. - By May 31, 2025, the program had driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million direct subsidies issued to consumers [3]. Group 3: Policy Implementation and Oversight - The Ministry of Commerce emphasizes the effective use of allocated funds and the need for detailed spending plans across different sectors and time periods [4]. - There is a focus on product quality and price regulation, with measures in place to prevent fraud and ensure compliance among participating companies [4].

央视网消息：记者6月20日从有关部门获悉，消费品以旧换新加力扩围政策没有变化，补贴资金使用进度符合预期，第三、 四季度中央资金1380亿元将陆续下达，同时地方也将相应配套和自行安排足够的地方资金，"国补"还将继续惠及广大消费者。 目前多地积极优化完善政策流程，着力减轻参与企业垫付补贴资金的压力，创新工作举措，提升消费者的体验感和获得感。 自去年实施以来，消费品以旧换新政策已成为促消费、扩内需的重要发力点。截至6月11日，今年湖北全省3C数码、家电、厨 卫、电动自行车等以旧换新产品总销售量3358.15万台，累计带动销售总额414.83亿元；在辽宁，全省参与消费品以旧换新活动的 消费者已达200万人次，直接拉动消费超过150亿元；截至4月底，今年山东以旧换新已带动销售近503亿元。 今年以来消费品以旧换新销售额突破1万亿元 商务部数据显示，截至5月31日，2025年消费品以旧换新5大品类合计带动销售额1.1万亿元，发放直达消费者的补贴约1.75亿 份。业内人士指出，从各地实践来看，政策不仅直接带动相关消费品销售额显著提升，还积极推动相关消费品结构升级和相关产 业链转型跃升。随着后续资金下达、相关制度持续优化，消 ...

【博时市场点评6月20日】两市继续调整，成交缩至万亿 每日观点 今日沪深两市继续震荡调整，成交缩量至1.09万亿。今日央行公布6月LPR报价，两个期限利率均保持 不变，符合市场预期。5月降息效果当前正向贷款利率传导，短期内将进入政策观察期，LPR报价短期 或将继续保持稳定。5月经济数据已发布，需求不足仍是核心问题，下半年在外部仍有很大不确定性， 大力提振内需、稳定资产价格预期，均需要适度宽松的货币环境。通过降低资金成本，激发融资需求， 是下半年拉动投资和消费、对冲外部冲击的一个重要发力点。国内权益市场短期或将维持震荡，主题轮 动较快，配置上可关注科技+红利的哑铃配置。 消息面 市场复盘 6月20日，A股三大指数下跌。截至收盘，上证指数报3359.90点，下跌0.07%；深证成指报10005.03点， 下跌0.47%；创业板指报2009.89点，下跌0.83%；科创100报1016.84点，下跌0.52%。申万一级行业中， 交通运输、食品饮料、银行涨幅靠前，分别上涨0.88%、0.73%、0.69%；传媒、计算机、石油石化跌幅 靠前，分别下跌1.91%、1.79%、1.71%。1500只个股上涨，3488只个股 ...

据了解，今年以来，按照党中央、国务院部署，国家发展改革委、财政部、商务部等相关部门共同落 实加力扩围实施"两新"政策，延续2024年好的经验做法，直接向地方安排3000亿元国债资金加力 扩围实施消费品以旧换新，在今年年度内全年实施。今年1月和4月已分别下达两批共计1620亿元中 央资金，支持地方做好一、二季度消费品以旧换新工作。后续还将有1380亿元中央资金在三、四季 度分批有序下达。 据新华社，记者从有关部门获悉，消费品以旧换新加力扩围政策没有变化，补贴资金使用进度符合预 期，第三、四季度中央资金将陆续下达。 ...