Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The prices of polyolefins are oscillating strongly due to the boost from upstream crude oil. The future supply of PE is expected to remain high, while the supply pressure of PP is alleviated due to many device overhauls. The downstream operating rates of polyolefins continue to decline, and the overall inventory is slightly reduced. The strategy suggests being cautiously bearish on plastics unilaterally, and there is no cross - period strategy [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7164 yuan/ton (+14), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7112 yuan/ton (+15). The LL North China spot price is 7400 yuan/ton (+0), the LL East China spot price is 7380 yuan/ton (+30), and the PP East China spot price is 7300 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis is 236 yuan/ton (-24), the LL East China basis is 216 yuan/ton (+16), and the PP East China basis is 188 yuan/ton (+5) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 83.8% (-0.1%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-2.6%). The PE oil - based production profit is 342.0 yuan/ton (-25.0), the PP oil - based production profit is 32.0 yuan/ton (-25.0), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 496.6 yuan/ton (-0.7) [1]. 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data is provided in the given content. 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit is - 174.1 yuan/ton (+0.0), the PP import profit is - 331.8 yuan/ton (-20.0), and the PP export profit is 19.2 US dollars/ton (+2.4) [1]. 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 26.1% (-4.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.8% (+1.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 45.3% (-1.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.7% (-0.1%) [1]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The overall inventory is slightly reduced. However, no specific inventory data is provided [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR: Neutral [5] - BR: Neutral [5] Core Views - **Market Analysis - Natural Rubber** - **Raw Materials and Spreads**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually entering the tapping season. At the beginning of tapping, the increase in raw materials is limited. The price of Thai latex has remained stable recently, but as production gradually increases, the raw material price is expected to continue to decline [2]. - **Supply**: In April, global natural rubber production was still at a low level for the year. The main production area in Yunnan, China, has started tapping, and the latex output is expected to gradually increase. With the expected increase in supply and the profit in Thai standard rubber processing, the expected increase in domestic arrivals remains. Overall, supply is showing a gradual upward trend [2]. - **Demand**: As of April 25, the full - steel tire operating rate was 65.36% (-2.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 72.36% (-0.04%). The downstream tire operating rate continued to be weak, especially the semi - steel tire operating rate, which decreased year - on - year due to the increase in tire factory finished product inventory pressure. Recently, with the decline in upstream raw material prices, tire factory profits have improved significantly, and tire factory purchases have increased slightly, but they are still mainly rigid purchases, providing limited support for rubber prices [2]. - **Inventory**: This week, both the Qingdao port inventory and social inventory showed a slight downward trend. Year - on - year, the current inventory reduction is still less than in previous years. The recent decline is mainly due to the increase in tire factory purchases after the absolute price reached a low level [2]. - **Market Analysis - Butadiene Rubber** - **Upstream Raw Materials**: As of April 25, the price of butadiene from Shanghai Petrochemical was 8,800 yuan/ton, and the cost of butadiene rubber was 11,476 yuan/ton. This week, the butadiene price was firm, and due to the high raw material price, the production of butadiene rubber continued to incur losses [3]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of April 25, the operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 67.17% (+4.41%), and the output was 26,971 tons (+1,771). Under the loss situation, it is difficult for the operating rate to increase significantly in the later stage [3]. - **Production Profit**: As of April 25, the production profit of butadiene rubber was - 141 yuan/ton. Currently, due to the relatively high butadiene price year - on - year, the production of domestic butadiene rubber continues to be in a loss state, and the loss has narrowed recently [3]. - **Inventory**: As of April 25, the upstream butadiene port inventory was 27,400 tons (+2,920), the butadiene rubber production enterprise inventory was 27,710 tons (0.09), and the butadiene rubber trader inventory was 3,610 tons (-760) [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream tire operating rate continued to be weak, especially the semi - steel tire operating rate, which decreased year - on - year. Recently, with the decline in upstream raw material prices, tire factory profits have improved significantly, and tire factory purchases have increased slightly, but they are still mainly rigid purchases, providing limited support for rubber prices [4]. Strategies - **RU and NR**: Currently, with the decline in raw material prices, the production profits of domestic full - steel and semi - steel tires have improved. Coupled with the stocking demand for the May Day holiday, downstream tire factory purchases have increased, leading to a decline in domestic social inventory and Qingdao port inventory in the past week. However, tire factory orders have not improved, and the demand side provides limited support. Supply shows a seasonal upward trend, indicating that supply and demand are still weak. In the later stage, attention should be paid to changes in US tariff increases. If high tariffs are maintained, the drag on demand will continue. Once the tariffs are alleviated, the low - valued rubber price will have certain rebound momentum. Against the background of uncertain overall market sentiment, prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [5]. - **BR**: In May, upstream maintenance devices will be restarted one after another, and supply will show an upward trend later. The weak price of upstream butadiene has slightly improved the production profit of butadiene rubber, which is currently near the break - even point, and the valuation is still at a relatively low level. The demand side is affected by US tariff increases, and the expectation is poor. Once the tariffs are alleviated, the low - valued rubber price will have certain rebound momentum. The actual domestic tire demand is still poor, and the semi - steel tire operating rate continues to decline. Currently, the price of natural rubber is still higher than that of synthetic rubber, and the tire substitution demand still supports butadiene rubber. The upstream butadiene raw material price may be supported by downstream replenishment demand in the short term, but due to good production profits, high port inventory, and increasing supply pressure later, butadiene still has downward pressure later. Supply and demand are weak, but the cost side and substitute spreads still provide support, and prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The downstream demand for pure benzene remains weak, with high inventory pressure in PA6 and MDI, dragging down the low operation rates of caprolactam and aniline, and styrene is also undergoing centralized maintenance. The domestic pure benzene operation rate has further declined, and port inventory has decreased again, but there is still pressure from South Korea's shipments to China, and the pure benzene processing fee remains under pressure [2]. - Styrene maintenance has increased, the operation rate has significantly declined, and port inventory has continued to fall, but the port basis has weakened, reflecting downstream pressure. The operation rates of PS and ABS remain weak, and the finished - product inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics persists, with a generally weak fundamental situation [2]. - The market is concerned about the possible subsequent shutdown of US ethane - cracked ethylene - to - styrene plants, and attention should be paid to China's tariff policy on US ethane. The signal of the easing of the China - US tariff war on April 22 may support the market [2]. Summary by Directory EB& Pure Phenyl Difference Structure and Related Spreads - Analyzes EB's main contract trend and basis, EB main contract basis, the difference between the first - and third - month styrene contracts, the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, styrene's spot import profit, the price difference between FOB US Gulf and FOB South Korea for pure benzene, and China's pure benzene spot import profit [6][9][10] EB& Pure Benzene Operation and Inventory - Covers the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports, the pure benzene operation rate, the inventory of styrene in East China ports, the styrene operation rate, the commercial inventory of styrene in East China, and the styrene factory inventory [22][24][27] Downstream Operation and Production Profit - Examines the operation rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [35][42][43] Pure Benzene Downstream Production Profit - Analyzes the production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 conventional spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [45][50][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the PVC industry, the overall production volume is expected to increase slightly this week due to the resumption of some maintenance devices, but the planned maintenance in the later period will increase, and the production volume of the ethylene - process may be less than expected. The export volume is expected to increase slightly. The apparent demand this week is less than expected, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The profit of the chlor - alkali complex is oscillating weakly, and the export profit has improved slightly. The basis has strengthened oscillatingly, and the 5 - 9 spread can be considered for a short - position configuration. The upstream is reluctant to cut production, the middle - stream traders are cautious, and the downstream start - up is increasing but the apparent demand is poor [6][9][10]. - For the caustic soda industry, the production volume has increased slightly this week, the export volume is relatively stable, the apparent demand is better than expected, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The price of caustic soda has weakened, the profit of the chlor - alkali complex has decreased, and the export profit has strengthened. The upstream is under pressure, the middle - stream traders are cautious, and the downstream demand is poor [97][100][101]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC Market 3.1.1 Spot Market - PVC production: This week's total production is 46.75 million tons, with ethylene - process production at 12.10 million tons and calcium - carbide process production at 34.65 million tons. Next week, the total production is expected to be 45.72 million tons, with ethylene - process production at 10.17 million tons and calcium - carbide process production at 35.54 million tons. The import volume is 1.50 million tons per week on average, and the export volume is 5.00 million tons per week on average, with a slight expected increase in exports [6]. - Apparent demand: This week's apparent demand is 43.43 million tons, less than expected. Next week, it is estimated to be 45.63 million tons [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory this week is 90.74 million tons, with a decrease of 0.18 million tons. If calculated based on the current production volume and apparent demand, it is expected to decrease slightly next week [6]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of East China calcium - carbide process has strengthened from - 189 to - 169 this week, and the basis of South China calcium - carbide process has strengthened from - 39 to - 19. The 05 basis has strengthened oscillatingly [9]. - Spread: The 5 - 9 spread has decreased from - 135 to - 141, and the 5 - 9 spread can be considered for a short - position configuration [9]. 3.1.3 Industry Chain Profit - Production profit: The profit of calcium - carbide production in Shaanxi has decreased from - 254 to - 258, and in Inner Mongolia, it has decreased from 268 to 264. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has decreased from - 127 to - 235. The export profit has improved slightly, with the FOB Tianjin relative export profit increasing from 5 to 12, the theoretical export profit to India increasing from 287 to 297, and the theoretical export profit to Southeast Asia increasing from 167 to 207 [9]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Market 3.2.1 Spot Market - Caustic soda production: This week's total production is 79.48 million tons, with an increase of 0.17 million tons. Next week, it is expected to be 80.66 million tons, and the week after next, it is expected to be 81.40 million tons [97]. - Apparent demand: This week's apparent demand is 75.57 million tons, better than expected. Next week, it is estimated to be about 77.5 million tons [97]. - Inventory: The total inventory (in terms of 100% purity) this week is 26.11 million tons, with a decrease of 0.67 million tons, and it is expected to continue to decrease next week [97]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - Basis: The 32% caustic soda basis for the 01 contract has decreased from 57 to 33, and the 05 contract basis has increased from 123 to 140. The 5 - 9 spread is recommended to be on the sidelines [100]. 3.2.3 Industry Chain Profit - Production profit: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has decreased from - 235 to - 276, and the export profit has strengthened [100].