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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (stock code: 2015.HK) [1][4][5] Core Views - Li Auto achieved a revenue of 144.46 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%, but net profit decreased by 31.37% to 8.03 billion yuan [4][6] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 44.27 billion yuan, up 6.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.52 billion yuan, down 37.74% year-on-year [4] - The company delivered 500,500 vehicles in 2024, a 33.10% increase year-on-year, with Q4 deliveries reaching 158,700 units, a 20.40% increase year-on-year [4][5] - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles decreased by 13.48% year-on-year to 276,800 yuan in 2024, primarily due to the increased sales of lower-priced models [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2025E: Revenue of 186.90 billion yuan, net profit of 11.49 billion yuan, EPS of 5.41 yuan [6][8] - 2026E: Revenue of 235.39 billion yuan, net profit of 15.40 billion yuan, EPS of 7.26 yuan [6][8] - 2027E: Revenue of 276.45 billion yuan, net profit of 19.11 billion yuan, EPS of 9.01 yuan [6][8] - Key Financial Ratios: - 2024: Gross margin at 20.53%, net profit margin at 5.56% [8] - 2025E: Gross margin expected to decrease to 19.86% [8] - 2024 R&D expense ratio at 7.66%, with a focus on maintaining cost control [4][6] Strategic Initiatives - The launch of new electric models, including the i8 and i6, is expected to enhance market competitiveness and drive sales growth [4][5] - The company is expanding its charging infrastructure, with plans to increase the number of charging stations to 4,000 by the end of 2025 [4][5] - Li Auto is focusing on international market expansion, establishing a presence in Central Asia and planning to enter markets in the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (stock code: 2015.HK) [1] Core Views - Li Auto achieved a revenue of 144.46 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%, but net profit decreased by 31.37% to 8.03 billion yuan, with an EPS of 4.03 yuan [4] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 44.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.09%, and a net profit of 3.52 billion yuan, down 37.74% year-on-year but up 25.18% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company delivered 500,500 vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33.10%, with Q4 deliveries reaching 158,700 units, up 20.40% year-on-year [4] - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles decreased by 13.48% year-on-year to 276,800 yuan in 2024, with Q4 ASP at 268,700 yuan, down 12.29% year-on-year [4] - The company expects Q1 2025 deliveries to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 15.7% [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are as follows: - 2025E Revenue: 186.90 billion yuan, Net Profit: 11.49 billion yuan, EPS: 5.41 yuan - 2026E Revenue: 235.39 billion yuan, Net Profit: 15.40 billion yuan, EPS: 7.26 yuan - 2027E Revenue: 276.45 billion yuan, Net Profit: 19.11 billion yuan, EPS: 9.01 yuan [6][8] - The company’s gross margin for vehicle sales in 2024 was 19.8%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [4] - R&D expense ratio for 2024 was 7.66%, a decrease of 0.88 percentage points year-on-year [4] Strategic Initiatives - The launch of new electric models, including the i8 SUV in July and the i6 later in the year, aims to enhance market presence [4] - Upgrades in intelligent driving technology and expansion of charging infrastructure are expected to boost sales [4] - The company is focusing on international market expansion, establishing a luxury brand image in Central Asia and planning to enter markets in the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [17]. Core Views - The company has a clear rhythm in electric vehicle production and is accelerating iterations in intelligent driving technology. The L series is set for a significant upgrade in 2025, focusing on intelligent driving hardware enhancements [11][10]. - The company is expected to launch two new electric SUV models, i8 and i6, in the second half of 2025, with a more mature market entry compared to previous models [11]. - The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to be a low point for profitability due to a decrease in delivery volumes and increased discounts, but the second half of 2025 may exceed market expectations with the new model launches [11]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 442.7 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, while the net profit for the same period was 35.2 billion CNY, reflecting a decline of 31.4% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 144.46 billion CNY in 2024 to 271.34 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.6% [6][14]. - Net profit is expected to recover from 80.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 232 billion CNY by 2027, indicating a significant rebound in profitability [6][14]. Key Financial Metrics - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 21.5% by 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve to 8.6% [14]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 11.3% in 2024 to 18.9% in 2027, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [14]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 27.6 in 2024 to 9.6 by 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [14]. Delivery and Production Insights - The company reported a Q4 2024 delivery volume of 159,000 units, which was slightly below previous guidance but showed a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [9]. - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to see a significant increase in delivery volumes, with expectations of 88,000 to 93,000 units, driven by promotional strategies [11].

撰 文 / 张霖郁 设 计 / 赵昊然 2025年2月13日，春节假期后的第二周，李斌自己到北京和任少卿的智能驾驶团队开了一场内部 会，期间他在群里发了1000个红包。 "估计上万元了"，一位了解该沟通会的汽车行业人士告诉汽车商业评论。 会议地点在北京中关村的融科资讯中心，这里是蔚来北京智驾团队的办公地。 这栋写字楼恐怕是全北京市值最高的楼，里面挤满了全球高科技企业，比如苹果、微软、AMD、 英伟达……更出名的是DeepSeek，梁文锋的公司也在这里，此外，还有刚入驻的华为。 有人开玩笑，大家都是邻居，利于相互挖人，换了公司还不用换地方。 可以预测的是，接下来一年，智能驾驶将出现惨烈竞争，尤其对合资品牌来说，他们需要更多的智 驾人才，这些竞争背后是人员流动以及企业付出的更高成本。另一方面，对消费者来说，获得了 智驾平权。同时，智驾解决方案供应商或将进入存亡期，头部将形成聚拢效应。 李斌当天下午先去办公区附近体验了最新的泊车功能，之后两点全员会议开始，共持续了不到三小 时。全程李斌是唯一发言人，任少卿在现场。 蔚来的智驾团队目前超过1000人，主要分布在北京和上海。内部人士告诉汽车商业评论，任少卿大 部分时间在 ...

文丨赵宇 窦亚娟 曾兴 编辑丨宋玮 在第一款纯电旗舰车型 MEGA 发布并经历震荡之后，理想在短短两个月时间，启动组织大调整、裁 员，CEO 对内反思 "过度关注销量和竞争"。今天，理想又公布了一个重要变化：今年内不再发布新 的纯电车型。 这一消息是在理想今晚举行的业绩发布会上宣布的。2024 年一季度，理想比去年同期多卖了 2.8 万 辆车，总营收增长了 36.4 % 至 256 亿元，但净利润从 9.3 亿元降到了 5.9 亿元。 2024 年原本是理想的纯电大年。按照其去年年底的规划， 3 月发布 MEGA ，下半年发布 3 款纯电 SUV。其中，M9、M8 将在 2024 年内量产，M7 预计在 2025 年一季度量产。2 月，理想创始人、 CEO 李想信心满满的表示，今年将是理想汽车史无前例的产品大年，到年底，理想将有 4 款增程电 动和 4 款高压纯电车型在售。 以下文章来源于晚点Auto ，作者晚点团队 晚点Auto . 从制造到创造，从不可能到可能。《晚点LatePost》旗下汽车品牌。 先建超充站，再发纯电车。 但变化在三个月内发生。据最新计划，理想纯电 SUV 车型的发布时间将推迟到明年上 ...