中国之所以强硬，是因为中国从第一次特朗普政府的贸易战以来，历经七年推进了相关准 备，核心是推动经济结构转型，打造没有美国也能生存的经济。2018年至今新增出口额超过 1万亿美元，相当于中国每年对美出口额的两倍…… 特朗普政府于美国东部时间14日凌晨0点1分（北京时间下午12点1分）将对中国的追加关税从145%下调 了115%。对800美元以下的小额货物征收120%的关税或每件100美元的关税，也一并降至54%。面对中 国的反制，美国并未再反击，而是退让了。 美国对中国的追加关税目前是10%的基础对等关税税率，再加上之前以打击非法药品为名设定的20%， 总共为30%。 特朗普于4月2日宣布对中国征收34%的对等关税，中国则采取了全面抗争的姿态而非谈判解决。美国将 对等关税提高至84%、125%，中国就以相同水平回应，最终美方对中方的追加关税达到了145%。 中国之所以强硬，是因为中国从第一次特朗普政府的贸易战以来，历经七年推进了相关准备，其核心是 推动经济结构转型，打造没有美国也能生存的经济。 其中一项关键考量是2026年秋的美国中期选举这一"民主制度的最后期限"。尤其是在选举前，美国民众 最为重视的圣诞购物季 ...

Core Viewpoint - The statements made by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee have added uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's policy direction, emphasizing the need for more time and data to accurately assess inflation and economic trends [1][4]. Economic Data Analysis - The April CPI data shows a year-over-year increase of 2.3%, the smallest in four years, but this is significantly influenced by a 1.2% month-over-month decline in food prices, indicating that short-term fluctuations may not be sustainable [3][5]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, remains at a year-over-year growth rate of 2.8%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures in the service sector [3][5]. Federal Reserve's Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates since December, with policymakers' cautious stance closely linked to the Trump administration's tariff policies [4][6]. - Despite the April inflation data, the Fed's logic for maintaining a wait-and-see approach remains intact due to core inflation consistently exceeding the 2% target and the potential lagging effects of tariff policies on prices [4][5]. Tariff Impact and Market Expectations - The recent increase in tariffs by the Trump administration, affecting approximately $250 billion worth of Chinese goods, could lead to higher consumer prices and force companies to adjust pricing strategies, with economists expecting these effects to manifest in the coming months [5][6]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted, with the probability of a cut this year decreasing from 70% to 55%, reflecting a reassessment of tariff risks [5][6]. Divergence within the Federal Reserve - There is a growing divide within the Fed, with some members advocating for patience to fully understand the impact of tariffs, while others express concern over slowing economic growth and favor preemptive rate cuts [6]. - The upcoming economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls and retail sales, are likely to intensify this divergence ahead of the June FOMC meeting [6].

央视网消息：中国人民银行14日发布4月金融数据。数据显示，金融总量增长既"稳"又"实"，广义货币M2增长明显提速，社会融资规模保持较 高水平。 M2增长提速 社会融资规模增速有所抬升 数据显示，4月末广义货币M2余额约325万亿元，同比增长8.0%，保持较高水平。社会融资规模存量约424万亿元，同比增长8.7%，社会融资 规模增速有所抬升，对实体经济的支持力度加大。 专家表示，政府债券发行加快是最主要的拉动因素。 专家表示，今年财政支持力度大、发债节奏快，支持扩内需、宽信用，对社会融资规模形成有力支撑。 信贷依然保持较快增长 有力支持实体经济 数据显示，1到4月，人民币各项贷款增加10.06万亿元，信贷依然保持较快增长。 专家表示，4月末，人民币贷款增速仍明显高于名义经济增速。还原地方债务置换影响后，贷款支持力度实际上比统计数据还要更高。 与此同时，融资成本继续保持历史低位水平。4月企业新发放贷款加权平均利率约3.2%，比上月低约4个基点，个人住房新发放贷款加权平均 利率约3.1%。 4月信贷结构改善 支持经济结构转型 数据显示，4月，普惠小微贷款、制造业中长期贷款分别同比增长11.9%，8.5%，均高于同期 ...

对话资深外贸专家：关税暂缓后如何看待出口后续？ 20250514 摘要 • 中美达成暂时削减关税协议，有助于缓解中国出口、失业及企业倒闭压力， 但仍保留至少 30%关税，未来三个月谈判结果至关重要，若失败美国或继 续加征关税。 • 中国外贸企业通过成本分摊等方式应对 30%关税，实际承担约 15%损失， 多数企业可维持贸易，但利润较低的劳动密集型商品仍面临困难，需积极 开拓新市场。 • 若未来三个月谈判失败，美国可能加征惩罚性关税，总关税或高达 54%甚 至更高，中国外贸将面临巨大压力，需积极寻求解决方案。 • 二季度中国出口增长，销售保持在 5%以上，预计五六月份出口将维持或 略低于四月份水平，实现 3%至 5%的增长，二季度经济增速有望不低于 5%。 • 中国对美贸易顺差巨大，美国要求中国调整贸易结构，关注国内产能过剩 问题，中国需认真对待并采取措施进行结构调整。 • 中国企业应积极开拓新市场，减少对美国市场的依赖，并考虑长期结构调 整，以适应未来的发展需求，同时与国外客户协商价格，维持生产。 • 扩大进口是未来重要措施，但国内消费疲弱限制了效果，需振兴国内消费、 解决居民收入问题、提高收入水平，并落实促 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite increased external uncertainties since April, the domestic economy shows strong resilience, supported by rising social financing and stable foreign trade growth [1]. Financial Data and Trends - In April, the growth rate of social financing increased, with RMB loans growing by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding 8% after adjusting for local debt replacement [1]. - The total value of goods trade imports and exports in the first four months increased by 2.4% year-on-year in RMB terms and 1.3% in USD terms, both accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1]. Credit Structure Improvement - From January to April, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, roughly unchanged from the previous year, with notable improvements in credit structure [3]. - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 34.31 trillion yuan, growing by 11.9% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increased by 8.5% to 14.71 trillion yuan [3]. Economic Structure and Credit Allocation - The evolution of credit structure reflects changes in the economic structure and promotes economic transformation, driven by the need for high-quality development [4]. - The proportion of corporate loans increased from 63% in 2021 to about 68%, while the share of household loans decreased from 37% to about 32%, indicating a shift towards funding for real enterprises [4]. Sector-Specific Loan Trends - The share of small and micro enterprise loans rose from 31% to about 38% of total corporate loans, while large and medium-sized enterprises' share fell from 69% to about 62% [5]. - In terms of industry allocation, loans to the manufacturing sector increased from 5.1% to about 9.3% of all medium to long-term loans, while traditional real estate and construction loans decreased from 15.9% to about 13% [5]. Consumer Spending and Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest that promoting consumption requires top-level design and a long-term development strategy, addressing employment, income, and social security to enhance consumer willingness and capacity [6]. - The focus should be on increasing the supply of high-quality consumer goods, supported by industrial and financial policies [6]. Future Financial Growth Outlook - Following external shocks, a package of policy measures was released on May 7, including interest rate cuts and structural tool optimization, aimed at fostering a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery [8]. - The People's Bank of China has implemented moderately loose monetary policies, with expectations for continued reasonable growth in financial totals [8]. Policy Innovation and Economic Support - Recent policy innovations, particularly in structural re-lending tools, aim to optimize financial resource allocation in line with economic transformation needs [9]. - The alignment of monetary policy with the goals of stimulating consumption and expanding domestic demand is evident in recent adjustments [9].

Group 1: Economic Growth and Financial Support - The financial total is expected to maintain reasonable growth following the introduction of a package of incremental policies in May, which will solidify the foundation for the continuous recovery of the domestic economy [1] - Despite increased external uncertainties since April, the domestic economy shows strong resilience, with social financing scale growth accelerating and RMB loan balance increasing by 7.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The foreign trade growth trend continues, with the total value of goods trade in the first four months increasing by 2.4% year-on-year in RMB terms and 1.3% in USD terms, indicating a recovery in export resilience [1] Group 2: Credit Structure Improvement - From January to April, RMB loans increased by 1.006 trillion yuan, with the balance of inclusive small and micro loans reaching 34.31 trillion yuan, growing by 11.9% year-on-year, and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing at 14.71 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% [2] - The evolution of credit structure reflects economic structural changes, with a notable shift in loan distribution towards real enterprises, as corporate loans increased from 63% to approximately 68% of total loans from 2021 to present [3] - The proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises rose from 31% to about 38%, while loans to large and medium enterprises decreased from 69% to about 62%, indicating a significant impact from inclusive small and micro loan initiatives [3] Group 3: Industry Focus and Policy Direction - Financial institutions have increasingly directed credit resources towards manufacturing and technological innovation, with the proportion of manufacturing loans in total medium to long-term loans rising from 5.1% to approximately 9.3% since 2021 [4] - The focus of macroeconomic policy is shifting towards promoting consumption, with financial policies aimed at supporting high-quality consumer goods supply, while addressing employment, income, and social security issues to enhance consumer willingness and capacity [4][5] - The development of consumer finance aims to expand effective consumer demand and ensure that consumer loans are genuinely used to support consumption, emphasizing a principle of reasonable moderation [5] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Future Outlook - The central bank and other departments released a package of policy measures on May 7, including interest rate cuts and structural tool optimizations, to create a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery [6] - The central bank's recent monetary policy practices have focused on a combination of different policy tools to enhance effectiveness, benefiting various market participants and boosting market expectations and investment confidence [6][7] - Recent structural policy adjustments by the central bank are aligned with the macroeconomic strategy of tapping economic potential and promoting consumption, indicating a clear focus on technology and consumption as key support areas [7]

今年以来，信贷结构持续改善，支持经济结构转型。第一财经从央行获悉，从企业和居民角度看， 2021年至今，企业贷款占比由63%升至约68%，居民贷款占比相应由37%降至约32%，一升一降的背 后，表明信贷资金更多投向了实体企业，居民融资需求下降也与买房投资等更趋理性有关；从行业投 向看，2021年至今，在全部中长期贷款中，制造业占比由5.1%升至约9.3%，消费类行业占比由9.6% 升至约11.2%，而传统的房地产和建筑业占比则由15.9%降至约13%。 ...

今年以来，信贷结构持续改善，支持经济结构转型。从央行获悉，从企业和居民角度看，2021年至今， 企业贷款占比由63%升至约68%，居民贷款占比相应由37%降至约32%，一升一降的背后，表明信贷资 金更多投向了实体企业，居民融资需求下降也与买房投资等更趋理性有关；从行业投向看，2021年至 今，在全部中长期贷款中，制造业占比由5.1%升至约9.3%，消费类行业占比由9.6%升至约11.2%，而传 统的房地产和建筑业占比则由15.9%降至约13%。(第一财经) ...

5月14日，央行发布最新金融数据，4月末，广义货币(M2)余额325.17万亿元，同比增长8%。央行表 示，观察货币政策的效果要结合实体经济实际运行状况综合研判。市场权威专家表示，将金融数据与 GDP等实体经济指标进行对比分析，能进一步显现货币政策的效果，更全面地衡量央行货币政策的支持 力度。比如，M2/GDP，已经从2019年末的197%上升到2024年末的232%，5年时间提升了35个百分点。 该专家表示，将M2增速作为货币政策的观测性指标，有其内在合理性，随着金融深化和经济结构转 型，市场研究表明货币总量与经济增长的相关性在减弱，主要发达经济体也都经历过逐步淡化并放弃盯 住总量指标的过程。(第一财经) ...

Core Insights - The Greek National Bank's report highlights the increasing severity of international trade conditions due to U.S. tariff measures, which pose risks not only to bilateral trade but also to the overall export structure and macroeconomic impact of Greece [1][2] Export Structure and Market Dynamics - Greece's export structure is characterized by high uncertainty, with approximately 60% of exports traditionally directed towards Western Europe and the Balkans, which have shown poor economic performance over the past year and a half [1] - Eastern Europe and the Middle East have provided stable support for Greek exports, accounting for about 75% of export growth [1] - The U.S. market, while not a traditional major market for Greece, is projected to increase its share of Greek exports from 4.5% in 2019 to 5.3% by 2024, contributing 7% to export growth during the same period [1] Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. government's recent tariff measures are expected to alter the positive outlook for Greek exports, as the U.S. absorbs about 20% of EU exports, indirectly affecting Greece's main trading partners like Germany and Italy [2] - The concentration of Greek exports to the U.S. is primarily in the food sector, with significant exports of high-value products such as olives and olive oil, which have reached €1 billion over the past six years [3] - Tariffs will likely harm Greece's price competitiveness in the North American market, forcing exporters to reduce profit margins, cut export volumes, or seek more expensive alternative markets [3] Economic Challenges - Key issues facing the Greek economy include insufficient investment, low productivity, weak international competitiveness, and a high current account deficit, exacerbated by past debt crises and fiscal austerity [4] - The structural weaknesses of the Greek economy are expected to be magnified by U.S. tariffs, complicating the recovery process [4] - The Greek government aims to avoid escalating trade tensions with the U.S. and seeks to align with EU positions, potentially requesting tariff exemptions for certain non-U.S. produced agricultural products [4]