分析人士指出，预算案的取向将对英国经济构成关键影响。一方面，增税有助于稳定债务和市场信心； 另一方面，若政策力度过大，可能进一步削弱已经疲弱的经济增长。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：熊思怡 中新社伦敦11月22日电 (欧阳开宇 刘施岑)在下周英国财政预算案公布前夕，英国企业与消费者趋于谨 慎，多项数据显示英国经济疲软，市场对可能出台的新一轮税收措施的担忧加剧。 标普全球公布的11月份采购经理人指数(PMI)初值显示，英国综合PMI从10月的52.2降至50.5，仅略高于 50荣枯线。标普预计，英国今年第四季度经济增长率或仅为0.1%，与第三季度持平，经济出现下滑的 风险正在上升。标普全球市场财智首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森警告称，这种"暂停"很可能演变 成经济衰退，原因是企业普遍预期预算案或将采取进一步抑制需求的措施。 与此同时，英国国家统计局公布的数据显示，10月份零售销售量出现自5月份以来的首次环比下降，消 费者支出趋弱。 企业方面同样显示出不安情绪。调查显示，为规避可能的税收上涨，企业在11月份普遍搁置投资和招聘 计划，私营部门就业人数下降速度为四个月来最快，商业活动及收费价格涨幅均明显放缓。 市 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - Carnival's shares have increased by 172% over the past three years, reflecting a strong recovery and improved market sentiment [1] - In Q3, Carnival reported record revenue, net yields, and customer deposits, indicating robust demand for cruise travel post-pandemic [2] - The company achieved $2.3 billion in operating income for fiscal Q3 2025, a 4% year-over-year increase, significantly better than the $279 million loss in the same period of 2022 [4] Group 2: Financial Health - Carnival's long-term debt stands at $26.5 billion, but the company is actively working to reduce this debt through refinancing, leading to upgrades from major bond rating agencies [6] - The market capitalization of Carnival is $33.6 billion, with its debt load being nearly 80% of this value, which may raise concerns among investors seeking stronger financial positions [7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The cruise market currently represents a small portion of the global vacation market, with Carnival positioned to capture growth by attracting younger and first-time cruise travelers [3] - The potential for a recession poses risks for Carnival, as discretionary spending cuts could impact revenue and earnings [8]

Core Viewpoint - The current global liquidity crisis is primarily driven by the U.S. government shutdown and the Federal Reserve's uncertain monetary policy, leading to widespread declines in various asset classes, including stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies, while the U.S. dollar index rises above 100 [1][2][7]. Group 1: Causes of Global Liquidity Crisis - The liquidity crisis began with the U.S. government shutdown, which prevented the flow of funds into the market, causing short-term borrowing rates to spike [2][4]. - The Federal Reserve's meeting on October 30 further exacerbated the situation, as Chairman Powell indicated uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts, which led to a loss of market confidence [2][6]. - The failure of the U.S. Senate to pass a funding bill on November 4 intensified market fears, resulting in a significant sell-off across various asset classes [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the government shutdown's resolution, the market initially rebounded; however, the lack of timely economic data and increasing divisions among Federal Reserve officials created further uncertainty [6][7]. - The announcement that the October non-farm payroll data would not be released until December contributed to a decline in the probability of interest rate cuts, with the likelihood dropping to 32% [7][9]. - The market's focus has shifted back to liquidity concerns, with the potential for a more severe downturn if economic data continues to show weakness [10][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The liquidity crisis is expected to end around mid-December, coinciding with the release of significant economic data, including employment reports, which are anticipated to be poor due to the government shutdown's impact [12][15]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to halt its balance sheet reduction by December 1, which may lead to a resumption of asset purchases if economic conditions worsen [13][14]. - The recovery of global liquidity could prompt investment opportunities across various markets, including U.S. stocks, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks, depending on the timing and nature of the economic data released [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent U.S. trade deficit data, highlighting that the significant reduction in the trade deficit is misleading and primarily driven by a sharp decline in imports rather than a surge in exports [2][4][23]. Group 1: Trade Deficit Analysis - The U.S. trade deficit fell by nearly 24% in August, narrowing to $59.6 billion, which is seen as a major news event [2]. - The reduction in the trade deficit is not due to a boom in exports, which only increased by 0.1%, but rather a dramatic 5.1% drop in imports, marking the largest decline in four months [4][7]. - The decline in imports is attributed to businesses halting orders after stockpiling goods in anticipation of rising costs due to tariffs, indicating a potential consumption gap in the future [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The drop in imports is a sign of economic contraction, with economists noting that the actual trade deficit was lower than expected, suggesting a faster-than-anticipated cooling of demand [7][20]. - The decline in capital goods imports, such as computer parts and communication equipment, signals a lack of investment and expansion intentions among businesses, which is critical for manufacturing growth [12][14]. - High tariffs and interest rates, combined with government shutdowns, are discouraging investment in new equipment, leading to a forecasted sharp decline in business investment in the coming quarters [14][20]. Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - The U.S. trade deficit with China has widened to its largest level since April, despite numerous tariffs aimed at reducing this deficit, highlighting the challenges of supply chain reconfiguration [16][18]. - The reduction in imports from Switzerland, particularly in gold, reflects a strategic move by the U.S. government to control capital flows, which may backfire as global demand for gold as a safe haven increases [9][11]. - The complexities of global supply chains are evident, as the costs of sourcing from alternative countries exceed those of direct imports from China, indicating that "decoupling" from China is more challenging than anticipated [18][20]. Group 4: Future Economic Risks - The article outlines four major risks facing the U.S. economy: potential inflation resurgence, a false sense of dollar strength, a rebound in gold imports, and volatility in GDP growth [20][22]. - The anticipated rise in consumer prices due to increased import costs from tariffs could lead to a challenging situation for the Federal Reserve, complicating monetary policy decisions [20][22]. - The overall economic picture suggests that while the trade data may appear favorable on the surface, it masks deeper issues of weak domestic demand and stalled investment, which could lead to significant economic challenges ahead [23].

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant wave of bankruptcies in Germany, driven by high energy costs, ineffective corporate transformations, and the impact of U.S. tariffs, leading to a challenging economic environment not seen in years [1][2]. Group 1: Bankruptcy Trends - Multiple research institutions predict that the number of corporate bankruptcies in Germany may reach a record high this year, with a notable increase in applications for bankruptcy [2][3]. - In August, there were 1,979 bankruptcy applications, marking a 12.2% year-on-year increase, with total creditor claims amounting to €5.4 billion, significantly higher than the previous year [3]. - The German Chamber of Commerce anticipates that the total number of bankruptcies for the year will exceed 22,000, the highest in over a decade [3]. Group 2: Impact on Employment - The ongoing bankruptcy wave is leading to significant job losses, with major companies like DHL, Siemens, Thyssenkrupp, and Bosch announcing substantial layoffs, totaling over 25,000 jobs [3]. - Nearly 30% of surveyed companies expect their business conditions to worsen in the coming months, indicating a deteriorating economic outlook [3]. Group 3: Structural Challenges - The bankruptcy trend reflects long-standing structural issues within the German economy, particularly the heavy reliance on medium-sized enterprises and export markets, which are now facing increased pressure from administrative burdens and external tariff barriers [4]. - The vulnerabilities of the entire industrial chain in global competition are becoming increasingly apparent, as liquidity issues and fragile business models are exposed [4]. Group 4: Government Response - In response to the economic downturn and rising bankruptcies, the German federal government aims to revitalize the economy through spending cuts, bureaucratic reduction, and investment stimulation, although the effectiveness of these policies may take time to manifest [5]. - Economic experts suggest that to return to a stable growth trajectory, Germany must enhance productivity, foster innovation, and increase investment, while also addressing the challenges posed by external trade conditions [5].

美联储古尔斯比：怀疑就业人数增长放缓是否预示着经济衰退。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural economic challenges facing Japan, particularly under the leadership of Prime Minister Sanna Takashi, highlighting the dual pressures of external and internal demand leading to economic recession and increasing wealth disparity in society [1][2][4]. Economic Growth and Recession - Japan's GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.8% in Q3, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024 [1]. - External demand has been negatively impacted by U.S. tariffs, resulting in four consecutive months of declining exports [2]. - Private consumption, which constitutes over half of Japan's economy, slowed significantly from 0.4% in Q2 to 0.1% in Q3 due to rising living costs and stagnant real wages [2]. Inflation and Wage Stagnation - The core consumer price index in Tokyo rose by 2.8% year-on-year in October, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target [2]. - Real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 1.4% in August, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline [3]. M-shaped Society and Wealth Disparity - The article describes Japan's wealth distribution as an "M-shaped society," where the average savings of single individuals in their 20s, 30s, and 50s are significantly higher than the median savings, indicating severe wealth inequality [4][5]. - The disparity in wealth distribution is leading to a collapse of the middle class, as noted by management expert Kenichi Ohmae [5]. Intergenerational Poverty and Low Birth Rates - The M-shaped society is perpetuating intergenerational poverty, as low-income families struggle to provide quality education for their children, leading to a cycle of poverty [7]. - High-educated individuals are opting not to have children due to financial constraints, further exacerbating the low birth rate issue, which negatively impacts domestic demand [8]. Political Response and Limitations - Prime Minister Takashi's approach of "responsible active fiscal policy" aims to restore Abenomics and temporarily freeze fiscal surplus targets, but it risks exacerbating wealth inequality by primarily benefiting high-income earners and large corporations [10][11]. - The article critiques the government's failure to recognize the fundamental structural changes in society, suggesting that without addressing these issues, any policy measures may be ineffective [12].

2025.11.17 本文字数：1722，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 潘寅茹 在外需受到关税影响重创之际，日本三季度内需也表现乏力。内阁府数据显示，持续的通胀和疲软的薪 资增长抑制了家庭支出意愿，消费者态度依然谨慎。 日本总务省的数据显示，日本首都东京10月核心消费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.8%，连续高于日本 央行2%的通胀目标。食品价格上涨仍是拉动日本物价上涨的最主要原因，其中大米类涨幅超40%。 日本农林水产省11月14日发布的最新数据显示，日本市场上一袋5公斤装大米均价涨至4316日元（约合 198元人民币），刷新5月涨价期间创下的4285日元（约合197元人民币）纪录。 据新华社报道，日本内阁府17日发布的初步统计结果显示，日本三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP），剔 除物价变动因素后的实际GDP较上季度减少0.4%，按年率计算下降1.8%。这是自2024年第一季度以 来，日本季度GDP增速首次呈现负增长。内需与外需的同时失速，成为拖累本季度日本经济的主要因 素。 目前，分析师们已普遍降低对日本央行短期内加息的押注。据悉，日本政府最快将于本周公布一项高达 17万亿日元（约合8270亿元人 ...

2025.11. 17 本文字数：1722，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 年末，日本经济拉响警报。 据 新 华 社 报 道 ， 日 本 内 阁 府 17 日 发 布 的 初 步 统 计 结 果 显 示 ， 日 本 三 季 度 实 际 国 内 生 产 总 值 （GDP），剔除物价变动因素后的实际GDP较上季度减少0.4%，按年率计算下降1.8%。这是自 2024年第一季度以来，日本季度GDP增速首次呈现负增长。内需与外需的同时失速，成为拖累本季 度日本经济的主要因素。 目前，分析师们已普遍降低对日本央行短期内加息的押注。据悉，日本政府最快将于本周公布一项高 达17万亿日元（约合8270亿元人民币）的振兴经济计划，以应对经济增长乏力。不过，在分析师看 来，此举将使日本政府债务问题进一步恶化。此外，分析师还担心，一旦四季度日本经济继续增长乏 力，日本经济将再度进入衰退通道。 美国关税冲击 具体数据显示，三季度，日本个人消费环比增幅仅为0.1%；在进出口方面，三季度日本出口增速下 降1.2%，进口增速下降0.1%。此外住房投资继续疲软，与二季度相比下降9.4%。 分析人士将日本三季度经济放缓的主要因 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report from the American Bank Research Institute reveals that 25% of American households are living paycheck to paycheck, indicating a significant warning signal for overall consumer spending power in society [1] - The financial struggles are not limited to a specific class but represent a broader societal issue, with many families facing a precarious balance between income and essential expenses [4][6] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Over 95% of the income for these households is spent on basic survival, leaving little room for discretionary spending such as dining out or saving for emergencies [4] - Inflation has surged, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022, and food prices increasing by 25% compared to pre-pandemic levels [4] Group 3: Social Implications - The phenomenon of "precious poverty" is reshaping consumer behavior, with increased reliance on discount retailers and second-hand goods, while traditional middle-class markers are becoming rare [6] - The generational transmission of financial distress is evident, as younger families struggle with childcare costs while their parents face retirement savings challenges [6] Group 4: Policy Challenges - Government interventions, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, have not effectively mitigated the economic pressures faced by low- and middle-income families, highlighting structural issues in the economy [10] - The rising interest rates aimed at curbing inflation disproportionately affect those with variable-rate debts, exacerbating financial instability among vulnerable households [10] Group 5: Global Context - The financial struggles in the U.S. are mirrored in other countries, with the UK and Germany also reporting significant declines in disposable income and increased energy expenditure [12] - The crisis in consumer spending power may lead to broader economic repercussions, including inventory buildup in retail, reduced manufacturing orders, and a potential recession [12][13]