Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a significant downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs in the non-farm employment data over the past year, leading to a reduction in the overall employment rate by approximately 0.6 percentage points, the largest decline since 2009 [1] - The average monthly addition of non-farm jobs has dropped to 71,000, a decrease of 76,000 from the previously reported figure of 147,000 [1] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, nearing a four-year high, indicating a slowdown in job growth and raising concerns about the health of the U.S. economy [1] Group 2 - Economic experts are warning that the U.S. economy is on the brink of recession, with companies slowing down hiring and facing uncertainty due to trade policies and immigration controls [2] - The current labor market issues are exacerbated by the ongoing transition to artificial intelligence and automation, which is suppressing labor demand [2] - Analysts suggest that the actual economic conditions for many businesses and consumers are worse than what is reflected in nominal GDP and employment statistics [2]

I think the economy is weakening, you know, whether that is on the way to recession or just weakening, I don't know, and that just confirms what we already thought, kind of. And I know that's a big revision. And speaking of kind of what we were going back to with the state of the economy, the difficulty predicting one of the questions people have is what's going on with the consumer right now.They're still spending money. It's a little bit different depending on what income set they're coming from. They sti ...

当地时间9月9日，美国劳工统计局（BLS）发布的年度基准修订初步结果显示，截至今年3月的过去12 个月，美国新增非农就业岗位比此前估计少91.1万个，相当于平均每月少7.6万个。这一下修幅度为20多 年来罕见。此前赞誉美国经济韧性和就业市场强劲的经济学家和市场人士突然意识到美国经济衰退甚至 滞胀风险。 市场对本次数据下修的预期为约70万。在本次数据公布前，美国财长贝森特也预警年度非农就业数据可 能下修多达80万。然而，最终的下修幅度远比市场普遍预期的程度还要糟糕。此前公布的数据显示，8 月美国非农就业人数仅增加2.2万，远低于预期的7万多人，也低于过去3个月平均增长2.9万人。甚至更 早这一趋势就已现端倪，6月的就业数据录得自2022年12月以来的首次月度下降，实际减少了1.3万个就 业岗位。 有分析指出，数据显示美国劳动力市场实际表现明显弱于劳工统计局最初的估计。摩根大通首席执行官 （CEO）杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）表示，这些数据修订证实了美国经济正在放缓、走弱，"我不确定 它仅仅是走弱，还是正在走向衰退"。牛津经济研究院称，"美国经济停滞在上个月（8月）变得更加明 显，还与通货膨胀和失业率高企 ...

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 有色金属日报 2025 年 9 月 10 日星期三 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2510 合约收于 79790 元/吨，涨幅 0.1%，沪铜指数减仓 3280 手至 48.59 万 手。 2.现货：进口货源继续低价出货，沪铜升水继续走低，报升水 60 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 30 元/吨。广东库存 6 连降，持货商本欲挺价出货但下游接受能力一般，现货升水持平昨 日，报升水 40 元/吨。华北由于高铜价抑制消费，现货升贴水下行，报贴水 150 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1.根据美国政府周二公布的初步基准修订数据，截至 3 月的一年间的非农就业人数下修 91.1 万，相当于每月平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current bullish trend in the U.S. stock market, particularly the Nasdaq reaching historical highs, may be nearing its end as underlying economic risks are underestimated by investors [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The Nasdaq 100 index has shown a compound annual growth rate of 14.25% over the past 40 years, significantly outperforming the broader market [1]. - Investors are increasingly reliant on expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, despite recent technical rebounds in the VIX volatility index and widening credit spreads indicating rising underlying risks [1][5]. Structural Risks - Despite healthy private sector balance sheets and no significant decline in corporate earnings, demand has been overdrawn, leading to weakened economic growth momentum [4]. - The labor market is a critical variable, with a historical low of 44.9% probability for unemployed individuals to find new jobs, indicating a potential underestimation of risks associated with job losses [4][5]. Policy Environment - The market's dependence on Federal Reserve easing is concerning, especially if inflation remains high, limiting the scope for rate cuts [5][6]. - Fiscal policy is constrained by high debt levels and interest burdens, reducing the potential for further stimulus [5]. Technical Analysis - The market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with the formation of a market top potentially taking several months [9]. - The performance divergence between cyclical and defensive sectors is notable, with the largest discrepancy in two years observed between TIPS yields and sector performances [7]. Investment Strategy - Monitoring upcoming CPI data is crucial; a higher-than-expected CPI could push the S&P 500 to 6200 points, while a weaker CPI may present buying opportunities at a 4.25% yield on 10-year Treasuries [10]. - Short-term strategies may include hedging with VIX longs and S&P 500 shorts, particularly around key inflation data releases [10].

Group 1 - The high tariff of 39% imposed by the US on Swiss goods is considered a disaster for certain industries in Switzerland [1] - Switzerland faces the highest tariffs from the US among all European countries, significantly impacting its economy [1] - Approximately 10% of Swiss exports to the US are expected to be affected by the tariffs, with the watch and technology sectors being the most impacted [1][2] Group 2 - The strong Swiss franc is exacerbating the situation for Swiss exporters, making their products more expensive [2] - The GDP growth rate of Switzerland in the second quarter has significantly declined compared to the same period last year, indicating economic weakness [2] - Swiss companies are estimated to lose $9.5 billion in revenue and $4 billion in profit due to the tariffs, particularly affecting high-priced product sectors [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September, with the decision hinging on upcoming CPI data, and the potential for a significant cut of either 25 or 50 basis points [1][2] - The U.S. labor market showed disappointing performance in August, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [1][2] - The weak employment data suggests a high probability of economic recession, especially as the three-month average job growth is below 50,000, which historically indicates recession risks [1][2] Group 2 - The sectors most affected by poor employment performance include IT, financial services, manufacturing, and wholesale trade, with a notable impact on high-income white-collar jobs [2] - Despite the downturn, wage growth continues, and labor participation rates have increased, indicating some resilience in the labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to reassess economic risks due to the weak labor market, making employment a more critical focus in their dual mandate [2][3] Group 3 - The upcoming midterm elections in 2026 are anticipated to be heavily influenced by economic conditions, with the economy serving as a key factor in voter sentiment [3][4] - The major economic issues at stake include the "Build Back Better" plan and the tariff war, with their impacts on prices, employment, and income being crucial for electoral outcomes [4][5] - Republican strategies include redistricting efforts to gain an advantage in the House of Representatives, while Democrats face challenges in maintaining their traditional strongholds [5]

Group 1: Labor Market Overview - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August, marking a new high in nearly four years, which is significantly above market expectations [1] - Non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, a sharp decline from the revised 79,000 in July, and well below economists' expectations of 75,000 [1] - The number of permanent job losses increased to 1.915 million in July, indicating a shift from temporary layoffs to long-term structural reductions [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Job growth in August was primarily driven by the healthcare sector, which added 31,000 jobs, although this is below the average monthly increase of 42,000 over the past year [3] - Manufacturing experienced job losses for the fourth consecutive month, shedding 24,000 jobs, largely due to tariff impacts and supply chain restructuring [3] - Federal government employment decreased by 15,000 in August, with a total reduction of 97,000 jobs since January [3] Group 3: Economic Implications - The weak labor market has raised concerns about the economic outlook, with some economists suggesting that the economy is sliding towards recession [1][4] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees rose to $36.53 in August, a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a 3.7% year-over-year increase, although reduced working hours have raised concerns about economic growth [7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in response to the weak employment data, with a potential 25 basis point cut anticipated in the upcoming policy meeting [7] Group 4: Political and Structural Factors - Political factors have influenced economic data, with President Trump dismissing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics over alleged manipulation of employment data [4] - Young graduates face a high unemployment rate of 6.6%, the highest in a decade, indicating that entry-level positions now often require several years of experience [5] - The OECD has downgraded the U.S. economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%, warning that tariffs could push the unemployment rate above 4.4% by early 2026 [11]

非农数据一夜崩盘，特朗普狠狠地扇了自己一个大嘴巴。 美国最新的非农数据公布，8月份的非农就业仅仅增加了2.2万人，远低于预期的7.5万。 数据公布后，美元指数应声下跌，美股先涨后跌再反弹，经历了一轮过山车，华尔街开始交易美联储降息50个基点的可能性。 可降息就能拯救美国经济吗？鲍威尔是否能力挽狂澜？全球财富将迎来怎样的大洗牌？ 美国非农数据的崩盘，其实从上个月就确认了。 8月初，美国劳工统计局公布了7月份的非农数据，直接惊呆了全球资本市场。 7月份非农就业新增7.3万人，远低于市场预期的11万，更夸张的是，5月份和6月份的非农数据也大幅下修。 面对这么惨淡的数据，华尔街马上就把压力甩给了美联储，按照原本的市场预期，美联储9月份会降息25个基点，但这个力度显然救不了美国经济，所以有 分析师认为美联储这次可能会降息50个基点，导致美股盘中又出现了反弹，最终小幅收跌。 那么问题来了，美联储这次降息能救美国经济吗？ 5月份从12.5万下修到了1.9万，6月份是从14.7万下修到了1.4万，这哪里是数据修正，分明是小数点点错了位置。 我们可以把降息分成两种情况来看待。 看到这份数据后，特朗普勃然大怒，说我统治下的美国经 ...

Economic Indicators - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, marking three consecutive months of increases[3] - Non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000[3] - The probability of a US recession has increased, with the Federal Reserve's rate cut probability for September now at 100%[3] Market Performance - COMEX gold prices surged by 3.66% this week, leading global asset performance[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 13 basis points to 4.10%[3] - The Chinese stock market showed resilience, with the ChiNext index rising by 2.7%[3] Fund Flows - Domestic capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $3.031 billion, while foreign capital outflow was $1.019 billion[3] - Global funds saw significant inflows into developed market equities, with US equities receiving $7.11 billion[3] Valuation Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the Shanghai Composite Index has risen to the 42nd percentile historically[3] - The S&P 500's risk-adjusted return percentile increased from 44% to 58%[3] Risk Sentiment - The options market indicates a belief in a solid market bottom for the CSI 300, with a decrease in put-call ratios suggesting improved sentiment[3] - The implied volatility for the CSI 300 has shown a consistent pattern, indicating limited downside risk but cautious optimism for upward movement[3]