Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent easing of global trade tensions has significantly reduced the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a decline in gold prices [1][3] - Gold prices fell for two consecutive days, with a notable drop of approximately 0.55%, closing at $3368.35 per ounce, and approaching the psychological level of $3350 [1][2] - Optimistic market sentiment regarding trade agreements between the US and Japan, as well as potential agreements with the EU, has contributed to a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields, further pressuring gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - The upcoming US durable goods orders data is expected to provide critical insights into the future trajectory of gold prices, with strong data likely to reinforce economic recovery expectations and exert downward pressure on gold [4] - Geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchasing trends, and fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate are anticipated to have a long-term impact on gold prices [4] - Key dates to watch include the Federal Reserve's meeting on July 30, which may influence inflation outlooks, and the finalization of US-EU trade agreement details before the August 1 tariff deadline [4] Group 3 - Current market conditions suggest a bullish trend for gold, with potential upward movement towards the $3400 mark, despite recent price corrections [5] - The recent dip to $3350 was viewed as a mid-term adjustment, with expectations for a rebound and new upward opportunities following this correction [5] - Investors are advised to monitor resistance levels around $3395/$3400, with a possibility of breaking through to $3410 if market momentum remains strong [5]

你有没有发现，美国的利息又一次没有降？在这么高的利率下，很多企业和投资者早已按捺不住，开始转移资产，纷纷抢滩美国。原本，降息就是为了刺激 经济增长，可美联储硬生生顶住了压力，不降反升。这背后的深层次原因，是什么让美联储选择这么做？ 先从大背景看，美联储的利率政策本身并不是一场单纯的经济调整，而是一种深刻的全球博弈。美国的利率水平，尤其是在2023年持续上升的情况下，吸引 了大量外资流入，尤其是来自中国、欧洲等地区的资本。这并非因为美国经济本身的韧性有多强，而是全球资本在面对不确定性时的避风港效应。美联储无 疑是在通过高利率吸引资本，为美国经济提供资金流动，同时借此进行全球资源的收割。 但这样的局面，也并非没有弊端。高利率带来的不仅仅是资金流入，更多的是资金成本的上升。美国国内的企业，尤其是中小型企业，将面临巨大的资金压 力。在这种高息环境下，不少企业不得不调整扩张计划，或者选择削减成本。而对于普通消费者来说，高利率意味着贷款成本增加，房贷、车贷、信用卡利 息的负担将进一步加重，这对于美国本土的消费市场无疑是一种沉重的打击。 但美联储并没有表现出降息的迹象，相反，还表现得很硬气。这背后不单单是对抗通胀那么简单， ...

周四，美国总统特朗普罕见地亲自走访了美联储总部，和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一起视察正在进行翻修的 大楼。两人都戴着白色的安全帽，站在高高的脚手架上，四周满是混凝土和钢筋，整个氛围显得微妙且复 杂。一方面，这似乎是一场公开的"展示"，然而另一面，仍然隐藏着他们之间未解的权力博弈。 几个月前，特朗普曾扬言要解雇鲍威尔，这一威胁在当时引起了广泛关注。但今天，特朗普的态度有了明显 的变化。他公开表示没有意图解雇鲍威尔，尽管如此，他依旧通过言辞施加压力，要求美联储降息。面对媒 体的提问，特朗普显得比以往温和了许多。"没有压力，"他说，"我们希望你知道，鲍威尔的任期很快就要结 束了。我相信他会做出正确的决定。" 尽管特朗普对翻修预算提出质疑，但他更为关心的依然是美联储的利率政策。"我们希望能够降低利率，也希 望看到美联储大楼尽快竣工。"他说道。他进一步补充道："更重要的是，美联储必须降低利率。"特朗普在这 段话中借机表达了对鲍威尔的持续不满，强调当前的高利率对普通美国家庭造成了不利影响。 有趣的是，特朗普在现场表现出了明显的个人情绪。他回忆起自己作为地产大亨的往事，说到"回到建筑工地 的感觉真好"，并开玩笑表示自己可以为 ...

当地时间24日下午，美国总统特朗普造访美联储，考察美联储耗巨资的建设项目。这一行程打破惯例，使其成为将近20年来，首次正式造访美联储的美国总 统。此举是特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔施压的升级。 特朗普头戴白色安全帽，两人在施工现场的钻机轰鸣中针锋相对，为这场罕见交锋增添戏剧性。 这场历史性的访问发生在美联储总部办公大楼。这项始于2022年的工程预计2027年完工，2028年3月启用，预算从19亿美元增至25亿美元。这项翻修工程最 近成为特朗普批评鲍威尔的焦点所在。 在参观过程中，两人的争论主要集中于项目的耗资数额。特朗普声称翻修工程的成本已达31亿美元，还向鲍威尔展示了关于美联储总部建筑物翻修成本的纸 质文件。鲍威尔当场反驳，"我还没听任何人说过有这个数字"，并冷静指出特朗普误将五年前完工的另一栋政府大楼的成本计入。 特朗普对此只回应道，"我们会去核实。"现场气氛剑拔弩张。 ▲当地时间2025年7月24日，特朗普造访美联储，拿出纸质文件与鲍威尔核算账目 图据IC photo 访问中，特朗普重申对美联储利率政策的不满，要求鲍威尔将基准利率下调至少3个百分点，称可为美国节省"数千亿"美元的债务利息，更是戏称鲍威尔 为 ...

来源：金都财神A 【消息面】 周四金价在全球贸易乐观情绪和强劲经济数据的双重压力下，连续两日下跌，盘中一度逼近3350美元的心理关口，收报3368.35美元，跌幅约 0.55%。市场对美国与日本、欧盟贸易协议的乐观预期削弱了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，而美国劳动力市场数据的意外向好进一步推高美元和 美债收益率，给金价带来显著下行压力。 与此同时，特朗普总统对美联储的罕见访问以及市场对美联储利率政策的密切关注，为黄金市场增添了更多不确定性。 【黄金行情走势简析】 1，黄金昨日走势空头较强，亚盘黄金上涨3393.4美元转空大幅下行，晚间黄金跌至3351.2美元触底反弹，收在3368美元，日线连续2个交易日收阴 线，运行在10日均线附近，KDJ指标死叉，附图拐头向下，MACD指标红色多头动能缩量，日线走势相对偏空。 2，2小时，黄金早间小幅上涨，当前运行在3370美元附近，KDJ指标严重超卖后，形成低位金叉，附图拐头向上，MACD指标快慢线运行在0轴下 方，绿色空头动能缩量，短线走势相对偏多。由于日线走势偏空，黄金日内操作倾向上涨做空单为主，上方关注2小时60日均线3383美元压力。下 方关注昨日低点3350美元的支 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in initial jobless claims for six weeks indicates resilience in the U.S. labor market, leading traders to reduce interest rate cut bets [1][3] Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - Initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, below the expected 226,000 and the previous week's 221,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April [1] - The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 224,500, the lowest in nearly three months [9] - Continuing claims remained high at 1.955 million, indicating structural pressures in the job market despite the lack of large-scale layoffs [1][6] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the jobless claims data, traders further reduced bets on interest rate cuts, anticipating fewer than two cuts this year [3] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year yield increasing by over 4 basis points [3] - The S&P 500 index remained nearly flat, hovering near historical highs during the earnings season [3] Group 3: Employment Market Analysis - Despite no significant layoffs, the job market faces structural pressures, with over 1.9 million individuals continuously claiming unemployment benefits for nine consecutive weeks [6] - The high number of continuing claims is particularly concentrated in the "Deep Tristate" area, which has seen a rise in claims since December 2021, potentially increasing the unemployment rate [7] - Economists predict a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% in the upcoming July employment report, with expectations of slowed job growth [7][11] Group 4: Federal Reserve Perspectives - There are differing views within the Federal Reserve regarding the employment market, with some officials asserting it remains robust while others express concerns about its marginal state [11]

晚间，美股三大指数涨跌不一，截至发稿，道指飘绿，纳指与标普500指数红盘。值得注意的是，特斯 拉崩跌超8%，不过，特朗普却表示，希望马斯克的企业能够蓬勃发展。 个股方面，特斯拉跳水大跌超8%，此前，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在财报电话会议中坦言，受美 国电动车税收抵免政策取消与关税冲击的影响，特斯拉或许接下来将经历几个"艰难季度"。 中概股方面，多数股票出现回调，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌超1%，个股方面，哔哩哔哩跌超6%，小马 智行、新东方、网易跌超3%。 黄金方面，现货黄金跌超0.5%，COMEX黄金跌逾0.6%。 特朗普发声 今晚，特朗普刷屏。 美国总统特朗普发帖称："每个人都在说，我会通过取消（或者至少减少）埃隆从美国政府那里获得的 大量补贴来摧毁他的公司。这并非事实！我希望埃隆以及我们国家内的所有企业都能蓬勃发展，事实 上，要达到前所未有的繁荣程度！他们做得越好，美国就会发展得越好，这对我们所有人都是好事。我 们每天都在创造新的纪录，而我希望这种局面能够一直保持下去！" 此外，根据白宫最新发布的总统每日公开行程，特朗普将于当地时间周四16点造访美联储，此行正值外 界对美联储大楼翻新工程的批评声浪日益高 ...

Group 1 - Silver T+D prices rose on July 23, closing at 9432 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.13%, with a daily high of 9486 yuan/kg and a low of 9341 yuan/kg, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1] - The market's risk aversion has decreased as the U.S. reached agreements with more trade partners, contributing to the upward movement in silver prices [1] - The silver T+D market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with resistance levels identified at 9450-9478 and support levels at 9361-9367 [3] Group 2 - President Trump continues to criticize the Federal Reserve, but appears to have stepped back from plans to dismiss Chairman Powell, who shows no intention of resigning [2] - The White House is focusing on a $2.5 billion renovation project for the Federal Reserve, which has significantly exceeded its budget [2] - There is an expectation that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will maintain interest rates at the upcoming policy meeting, as Powell and colleagues want to assess the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation before making further moves [2]

北京时间7月22日深夜，全球金融市场迎来重要时刻。美联储主席鲍威尔发表关键讲话，中国资产表现强劲，多项因素交织影响市场走向。 美联储主席重磅表态稳定市场预期 市场层面，美股三大指数震荡分化表现不一。纳指盘初一度跳水跌超1%，截至北京时间23：10，跌幅收窄至0.44%。道指涨0.1%，标普500指数跌0.1%。中 国资产逆势走强成为亮点，纳斯达克中国金龙指数直线拉升，现涨1.3%。 三倍做多富时中国ETF大涨超3%表现突出。中概股方面呈现全面上涨态势，大全新能源大涨超16%领涨。蔚来涨超9%，百度、小鹏汽车涨超3%。拼多多、 唯品会涨超2%，多只个股实现显著涨幅。 掉期市场显示，美联储下周降息的可能性几乎为零。目前交易员们的定价押注美联储今年剩余时间将总共降息46个基点。这一水平与上周五相比几乎没有变 化。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为41.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为57.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.5%。 7月22日晚间，美联储主席鲍威尔在银行监管会议上发表开幕致辞。他明确表示，美国大型银行需要保证资本充足，有效管理风险。大型银行要能自由地进 行相互竞争，与非银行金融公司竞争，与其他司法管辖区 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, as reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect, the game between economies has intensified, and market concerns have resurfaced. Trump's efforts to pressure Powell continue, which on one hand intensifies market unease and on the other hand loosens the expectation that the Fed will maintain high - interest rates. Under factors such as safe - haven demand and improved liquidity expectations, precious metals have risen strongly. In the future, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies may lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and precious metals are expected to remain in an upward - biased pattern [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals market: During the day, precious metals consolidated horizontally and gave back some of yesterday's gains. London gold is trading around $3389, and London silver is around $38.9. Driven by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.64% at 784.84 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 1.56% at 9393 yuan/kg [3] - Dollar index: The dollar index fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading around 97.865 [4] - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose slightly and is currently trading around 4.39% [5] - RMB exchange rate: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate continued to consolidate at a high level and is currently trading around 7.175 [6] Important Information - Tariff trends: The EU is exploring broader potential counter - measures against US tariffs, with negotiation as the priority; US Treasury Secretary is more concerned about high - quality transactions; 19% of US tariffs on Indonesia may take effect before August 1st [7] - Fed turmoil: US Republican Congressman Luna sent a letter to the Department of Justice accusing Powell of perjury; the Fed added a video tour of the headquarters renovation project on its website [7] - Fed observation: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 41.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.2% [7] Logic Analysis - With the approaching of reciprocal tariff implementation, market concerns have increased. Trump's pressure on the Fed has made the expectation of continuous high - interest rates waver. Precious metals have risen strongly due to safe - haven and liquidity expectations. In the future, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies may cause inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and precious metals are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [8][9][10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider continuing to hold long positions [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [13] Data Reference - Dollar index and precious metals trends: Presented the trends of the dollar index against London gold and London silver [15][16] - Real yields and precious metals trends: Showed the trends of real yields against London gold and London silver [17][18][21] - Domestic and foreign futures trends: Displayed the trends of domestic and foreign gold and silver futures [20][22] - Futures - spot trends: Presented the trends of gold and silver futures - spot differences [24][25] - Domestic - foreign price differences: Showed the domestic - foreign price differences of gold and silver [28][30] - Gold - silver ratio: Presented the gold - silver ratios of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex [36][37] - ETF holdings: Displayed the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF [39][40] - Futures positions: Showed the futures positions of gold and silver [41][42] - Futures inventories: Presented the futures inventories of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver [43][45] - Trading volumes: Showed the trading volumes of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver [46][47] - TD data: Included gold and silver TD deferred fees, and the delivery volumes of gold and silver TD [50][51][57] - Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates: Presented the relationships among nominal interest rates, inflation expectations, real interest rates, and US Treasury yields [55]