Market Overview - The average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper for the week ending January 16, 2026, ranged from 101,855 to 103,915 CNY/ton, showing a peak and subsequent decline during the week [2][14] - LME inventory changed by 0.63 million tons to 143.6 thousand tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory changed by 3.30 million tons to 213.5 thousand tons [2][14] - Domestic social inventory (excluding bonded zones) changed by 2.75 million tons to 320.9 thousand tons, and bonded zone inventory changed by 0.12 million tons to 80 thousand tons [2][14] - Comex inventory increased by 20.7 thousand short tons to 538.7 thousand short tons [2][14] Macroeconomic Insights - U.S. President Trump expressed a desire for Hassett to remain in his current position rather than move to the Federal Reserve, making former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair [3][15] - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson stated that interest rates are aligned with neutral levels and the current policy stance is "well-positioned," with a projected economic growth of 2% in the short term [3][15] - Fed Governor Bowman indicated that current monetary policy remains moderately restrictive and adjustments may be necessary if employment conditions do not improve [3][15] Mining Sector - The SMM import copper concentrate index reported -46.53 USD/dry ton, down 1.12 USD from the previous period [5][16] - In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [5][17] - The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile is experiencing a strike, with labor negotiations at a standstill, affecting production [5][17] Smelting and Import Dynamics - Yangshan copper premium continued to decline, with average bill of lading transaction prices at 41 USD/ton, down 4.2 USD week-on-week [6][16] - As of January 16, 2026, the market is experiencing significant divergence between buyers and sellers, with limited actual transactions due to high copper prices [6][16] Recycling and Scrap Copper - Copper prices fluctuated widely, with a recorded increase of 310 CNY/ton, but Guangdong bright copper prices fell by 100 CNY to 89,500 CNY/ton [7][18] - The recycled copper raw material market remains relatively firm, but downstream enterprises face dual pressures of raw material sourcing difficulties and weak sales [7][18] Consumption Trends - The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 57.47%, a week-on-week increase of 9.65 percentage points [8][19] - The operating rate for copper wire and cable enterprises was 55.99%, slightly down by 0.59 percentage points week-on-week [8][19] - The U.S. administration announced a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors and related products starting January 15, which may impact demand for non-ferrous metals, including copper [8][19] Strategy Outlook - The current outlook for copper is neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate between 99,500 CNY/ton and 125,000 CNY/ton due to high prices and weak downstream demand [10][20]

2026.01. 17 本文字数：1998，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 下一届美联储主席人选之争在周五再生变数。美国总统特朗普暗示，他或许希望留任白宫国家经济委 员会主任哈西特（Kevin Hassett），让其继续担任现职。 特朗普此番表态后，预测市场平台Kalshi将凯文·哈西特出任美联储主席的概率从此前的35%下调至 15%。而前美联储理事凯文·沃什的当选概率则从44%升至 58%。与此同时，另一家预测平台 Polymarket的数据显示，沃什的支持率由44%攀升至60%，哈西特的支持率则从 36%降至16%。 特朗普是在周五出席一场聚焦农村医疗问题的活动中，对白宫国家经济委员会主任哈西特作出上述评 价。此前，哈西特刚刚做客一家美国媒体，参与了一场内容广泛的访谈节目。 "我看到凯文也在现场，你今天在电视上的表现太棒了。说实话，我其实更希望你留在现在的岗位 上。哈西特真的很优秀。"特朗普说道。"我在想，'等一下，如果我把他调走 。'那样我就会失去你 这个得力助手。这是我非常担心的一点，所以我必须好好跟你说声谢谢。" "我们不想失去他，就让我们静观其变吧。"特朗普对着自己的办公厅主任怀尔 ...

下一届美联储主席人选之争在周五再生变数。美国总统特朗普暗示，他或许希望留任白宫国家经济委员会主任哈西特（Kevin Hassett），让其继续担任现 职。 特朗普此番表态后，预测市场平台Kalshi将凯文·哈西特出任美联储主席的概率从此前的35%下调至 15%。而前美联储理事凯文·沃什的当选概率则从44%升至 58%。与此同时，另一家预测平台Polymarket的数据显示，沃什的支持率由44%攀升至60%，哈西特的支持率则从 36%降至16%。 市场反应剧烈 随后情况发生了变化。当时报道称，哈西特的候选资格正遭到特朗普亲信的反对，这一消息似乎是沃什支持率迎头赶上的关键原因。反对声浪源于外界担忧 哈西特与特朗普的关系过于密切。 前景如何 第一财经记者注意到，尽管美国司法部已对美联储主席鲍威尔启动刑事调查，市场对美联储今年利率政策走向的预期并未发生太大变化，一方面是因为鲍威 尔对相关指控的回应毫无妥协之意，另一方面或许是12月消费者物价指数CPI与生产者物价指数PPI均显示通胀压力未见缓解。 联邦基金利率期货数据显示，投资者预计到今年年底美联储将累计降息54个基点，这意味着两次25个基点的降息已被市场完全消化，尽 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in domestic zinc prices, driven by macroeconomic factors and market dynamics [1][2][3] Group 2 - On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the main zinc contract (2603) opened at 25,120 CNY/ton, reached a high of 25,255 CNY/ton, and closed at 24,750 CNY/ton, down 275 CNY, or 1.10% [1] - The trading volume for the main zinc contract decreased by 133,743 hands to 368,615 hands, while open interest fell by 698 hands to 142,274 hands [1] - The latest price for London zinc was reported at 3,257 USD, down 56.5 USD [1] Group 3 - The ccmn comprehensive zinc price reported a decline, with 0 zinc averaging 24,850 CNY/ton, down 610 CNY, and 1 zinc averaging 24,760 CNY/ton, down 620 CNY [1] - In Guangdong, the 0 zinc price ranged from 24,500 to 24,800 CNY/ton, averaging 24,650 CNY, also down 610 CNY [1] Group 4 - The macroeconomic context includes a decrease in initial jobless claims in the U.S. to 198,000, below market expectations, indicating a resilient labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve's likelihood of maintaining interest rates during the upcoming meeting has risen to approximately 95%, with expectations for the next rate cut pushed to June [2] Group 5 - The domestic central bank has lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points, while the State Grid's investment for the 14th Five-Year Plan reached a record high of 4 trillion CNY, a 40% increase from the previous plan [2] - The non-ferrous metals market has seen a broad decline, with tin and nickel leading the drop, which has negatively impacted zinc prices [2][3] Group 6 - The LME's decision to not accept certain brand warehouse receipts has sparked speculative trading, leading to a temporary increase in zinc prices [3] - However, the actual impact on the market is limited due to low inventory levels of high-purity zinc in LME warehouses [3] - The overall trading atmosphere remains subdued, with only essential purchases occurring, indicating a lack of strong demand [3]

从技术面来看，今日迎来周五收官，短线依旧重点关注4580-4625的震荡区间，其中4580是日内关键支 撑位，4561则为多头短期防守线；在大周期看涨的基调下，重点看点在于今日能否突破4625阻力位，实 现行情的向上延伸。 昨日日线收出锤头阴线，明确验证了上方压力的有效性，这是多头动能衰减、空头开始发力的关键信 号。 当前技术结构进一步转弱：1小时与4小时布林带同步收口，价格已有效跌破4小时中轨支撑，且近期高 点呈现逐步下移态势。压力位下移至4612-4625区域，而下方4585-4580成为日内关键支撑区间。唯有下 破4580，才能确认打开进一步下行空间，目标可看至4550。 即时阻力位出现在1月14日创下的4643美元的历史高点，随后是上升楔形的上边界，约为4660美元。突 破这一重叠阻力区将使金价对升至4700美元水平。 周五(1月16日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格震荡走弱，目前交投于4596.50美元/盎司附近，现货黄金在近期 盘内价格线上持续波动交易，试图获得新的多头动能，以帮助其在近期主导波动后恢复盈利浪潮。金价 在周初走出一波亮眼上扬后，周中便陷入高位整理，整体呈现冲高后的修正格局。 美国总统唐纳德 ...

【要闻速递】 周四，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，上周初请失业金人数意外下降9000人，经季节性调整后降至19.8万 人，远低于经济学家预期的21.5万人。这一数据提振美元指数升至六周新高99.49，收于99.35，涨幅 0.28%。美元走强令以美元计价的黄金对海外买家更昂贵，压制了黄金需求。 摘要今日周五(1月16日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1029.71元/克，较前一交易日下跌4.05元，跌幅 0.40%，日内呈现震荡下行走势。当日开盘价报1033.91元/克，盘中最高触及1034.82元/克，最低下探至 1028.84元/克。 值得注意的是，DRW Trading策略师Lou Brien警告，美国就业数据的"出生-死亡模型"可能存在缺陷，或 高估实际增长，未来年度修订版或揭示劳动力市场潜在疲软。这为黄金提供了潜在反转机会，但短期内 美元强势仍是金价下滑的主因。 今日周五(1月16日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1029.71元/克，较前一交易日下跌4.05元，跌幅 0.40%，日内呈现震荡下行走势。当日开盘价报1033.91元/克，盘中最高触及1034.82元/克，最低下探至 1028.84元/克。 【 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The stainless - steel futures price is expected to adjust strongly, with the price range between 14,200 - 15,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 14,415 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 490 yuan/ton; the 02 - 03 contract price difference is - 5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,915 lots, a decrease of 4,552 lots; the main contract position is 145,444 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 46,118 tons, a decrease of 413 tons [2] 现货市场 (Spot Market) - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 14,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton; the market price of 304 scrap stainless steel in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of stainless steel is 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 150,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,600 yuan/ton; the average price of 7 - 10% ferronickel nationwide is 1,030 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 20 yuan/nickel point [2] - China's monthly chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 产业情况 (Industry Situation) - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 540,500 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 下游情况 (Downstream Situation) - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 534,567,000 square meters, an increase of 43,953,100 square meters [2] - The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, an increase of 2,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, an increase of 700 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2] 行业消息 (Industry News) - In November in the US, retail sales unexpectedly strengthened with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption; energy cost increases pushed the US PPI in November to rebound to 3% year - on - year, with the core PPI month - on - month lower than expected; US existing home sales in December were the strongest since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and house price growth was the weakest in two and a half years [2] - In 2026, Fed voter Kashkari supported Powell and advocated keeping interest rates unchanged in January; voter Paulson maintained a cautious stance; 2025 voter Goolsbee emphasized the importance of independence in combating inflation; Fed Governor Milan found a new reason for interest - rate cuts: the Trump administration's deregulation [2] - China's foreign trade accelerated its recovery in December. Exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a record high, rare - earth quotas increased by 32% year - on - year, and annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, while coal imports fell by the largest margin in a decade [2] 观点总结 (Viewpoint Summary) - On the raw material side, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic ferronickel plants is tightening. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year. In the case of raw material supply contraction, ferronickel production will face pressure to reduce output [2] - On the supply side, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved. Although it has bid farewell to the traditional peak demand season, the expected decline in production is actually limited, and supply pressure still exists [2] - On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually turning to the off - season, and the stainless - steel export volume is showing a downward trend. The impact of previous export squeezes is starting to be felt. Market procurement willingness is low, and overall inquiries and transactions are average. However, there is also not much inventory in the market, so the national social inventory of stainless steel maintains a seasonal slight decline [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will undergo a strong short - term adjustment, and attention should be paid to the support of MA10 [3][4] - The Philippines has entered the rainy season, leading to a downward trend in nickel ore imports. Indonesia's plan to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year has raised market concerns about raw material supply shortages, but the long - term impact depends on the transmission process [3] - On the smelting side, Indonesia's nickel iron production remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. China has large refined nickel production capacity, and with the recent rebound in nickel prices and improved profits, the production of refined nickel is expected to rise again [3] - On the demand side, the cost of nickel iron for stainless steel has decreased, improving steel mill profits and leading to expected high production. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, contributing a small increase in demand for ternary batteries [3] Group 3: Summary according to the Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 146,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5,810 yuan/ton. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 18,785 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,185 dollars/ton [3] - The 02 - 03 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 72,182 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,730 lots [3] - The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 101,498 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 8,357 lots. LME nickel inventory is 284,658 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 510 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 46,650 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,106 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 13,296 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 702 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 41,972 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,700 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 150,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3,600 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 149,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3,300 yuan/ton [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton. The basis of the NI main contract is 3,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,210 yuan/ton [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 198.76 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.11 dollars/ton [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 333.95 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 134.33 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,319.77 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.26 million tons [3] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 72.18 dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 14.84 dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, with no week - on - week change [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly production of nickel iron is 2.21 million metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 million metal tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, with an increase of 2,900.84 tons. The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 176.17 million tons, with a decrease of 3.83 million tons [3] - The weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 89.54 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.97 million tons. The weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel in stock is 54.05 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.33 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - In the US, retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. Energy cost increases pushed the US PPI in November to rebound to 3% year - on - year, and the core PPI month - on - month was lower than expected. US existing home sales in December were the strongest since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and the housing price increase was the weakest in two and a half years [3] - Some Fed officials in 2026 support maintaining the interest rate in January, while others hold a cautious stance. A Fed governor has found a new reason for interest rate cuts [3] - China's foreign trade has accelerated its recovery. In December, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a new high, and rare earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year. Annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, while coal imports had the largest decline in a decade [3]

1月15日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0064，上调56点。升值至2023年5月18日以来最高！ 越来越多期权投资者押注 美联储今年一整年都将维持利率不变 美联储1月维持利率不变的概率为95% CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月累计降 息25个基点的概率为26%，维持利率不变的概率为72.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.2%。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 专注于期权的交易员正在逐步排除美联储年内降息的预期，转而将投注转向美联储全年维持利率不变的 情景。这一主题至少从上周五开始浮现。当时最新的美国就业数据显示，失业率意外走低。按市场定价 衡量，这几乎抹去了美联储在本月政策会议上降息的可能性，也促使越来越多的交易员把对降息时间的 预期进一步向后推迟。劳动力市场趋于稳定，使得决策者去年实施了三次、每次25个基点的降息 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月15日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0064，上调56点。升值至2023年5月18日以来最高！ 越来越多期权投资者押注 美联储今年一整年都将维持利率不变 专注于期权的交易员正在逐步排除美联储年内降息的预期，转而将投注转向美联储全年维持利率不变的 情景。这一主题至少从上周五开始浮现。当时最新的美国就业数据显示，失业率意外走低。按市场定价 衡量，这几乎抹去了美联储在本月政策会议上降息的可能性，也促使越来越多的交易员把对降息时间的 预期进一步向后推迟。劳动力市场趋于稳定，使得决策者去年实施了三次、每次25个基点的降息之后， 没有太多继续降息的理由，尤其是在通胀仍高于美联储目标的情况下。 美联储1月维持利率不变的概率为95% CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月累计降 息25个基点的概率为26%，维持利率不变的概率为72.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.2%。 责任编辑：郭建 CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月累计降 息25个基点的 ...