Core Insights - The crypto market experienced a downturn as traders reduced exposure ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's policy speech, with Bitcoin dropping to approximately $111,856, a 3% decline [1] - The global crypto market cap decreased by 3.2% to $3.8 trillion, indicating a cautious sentiment following a brief rebound [1] - Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies also faced significant declines, with Ethereum losing 4% to $4,012 and other notable drops in various altcoins [2] Federal Reserve Context - Powell's upcoming remarks are highly anticipated as they will provide insights into the Fed's stance on interest rates, especially after the recent rate cut of 0.25% to a range of 4.00%–4.25% [3] - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed key economic reports, making Powell's speech crucial for market direction [3] - The market is particularly focused on how Powell will balance the dual mandate of full employment and price stability, with inflation remaining above 2% for nearly five years [4] Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - There is a notable increase in short positions among large traders, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [5] - On-chain data reveals significant short activity, with one trader holding $98 million in shorts across various cryptocurrencies [5] - Despite the current cautious sentiment, corrections in the market often set the stage for potential breakout phases, with traders looking for resilient assets [6]

Core Viewpoint - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being primarily based on real interest rates to being centered around central bank purchases, reflecting a trend towards decentralization and heightened demand for safe-haven assets [1] Macroeconomic Messages - In the context of high interest rates and global restructuring, the demand for gold is increasing, particularly in China, where the central bank has resumed gold purchases for ten consecutive months [1] - The passage of Trump's significant legislation may exacerbate the U.S. debt issue, leading to cracks in the dollar's monetary credibility and highlighting gold's de-dollarization attributes [1] - Geopolitical risks continue to drive market demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to short-term fluctuations in gold prices [1] Institutional Perspectives - The logic driving the current rise in gold prices remains intact, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and market sentiment being short-term influencing factors [1] - Recent U.S. labor market data shows unexpected weakness, with non-farm employment significantly below expectations and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in October are around 90%, with attention on upcoming non-farm payroll data [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Derivatives Daily Report [2] - Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Institute: Commodity Research Institute [1] - Researcher: Wang Luchen CFA [2] - Contact Information: Shanghai: 021 - 65789219; Beijing: 010 - 68569781; Email: wangluchen_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Review Precious Metals Market - London Gold: Reached a new high of $3,819.81, currently trading around $3,808 [3] - London Silver: Reached a new high of $47.174 since 2011, currently trading around $46.88 [3] - Shanghai Gold: Reached a new high of 867 yuan, closing up 1.35% at 866.52 yuan/gram [3] - Shanghai Silver: Reached a new high of 11,008 yuan, closing up 3.92% at 10,939 yuan/kilogram [3] Other Markets - Dollar Index: Slightly lower, currently trading around 98 [4] - 10 - year US Treasury Yield: Declined, currently trading around 4.145% [5] - RMB Exchange Rate: Opened and closed higher against the US dollar, currently trading around 7.12 [6] Group 3: Important Information US Macroeconomic Data - August Core PCE Price Index: Annual rate was 2.9%, in line with expectations; monthly rate was 0.2%, in line with expectations [7] - August Personal Spending: Monthly rate was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.5% [7] - September University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index: Final value was 55.1, lower than the expected 55.4 [7] - September One - year Inflation Rate Expectation: Final value was 4.7%, lower than the expected 4.8% [7] Trump Administration Movements - Federal Government Funding: Congress has not reached a consensus on fiscal appropriation. If no agreement is reached by September 30, some government agencies may shut down [7] - Trump's Statements: On the 27th, Trump said if the government has to shut down, then let it shut down. He will meet with four congressional leaders on Monday and attend a meeting with senior military generals on Tuesday [7] Federal Reserve Views - Richmond Fed President Barkin: Upcoming data will determine whether the Fed should further cut interest rates [8] - Fed Governor Bowman: Strongly supports the Fed only holding Treasury bonds and believes it is appropriate to ignore the one - time impact of tariffs [10] FedWatch - October: The probability of maintaining interest rates is 10.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.3% [10] - December: The probability of maintaining interest rates is 2.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 32.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 64.9% [10] Geopolitical Conflicts - Trump on Ukraine: On the 27th, according to the Wall Street Journal, Trump is open to relaxing restrictions on Ukraine's use of US - made long - range weapons to strike targets in Russia, but no specific actions were promised [10] Group 4: Logical Analysis - The US PCE data on Friday night was in line with market expectations, reducing the obstacles for another rate cut in October, leading to a decline in the dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield [11] - The US government faces a shutdown crisis, which may affect the release of subsequent non - farm and CPI reports and increase market uncertainty [11] - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the potential escalation of the Russia - Ukraine situation, have pushed up market risk - aversion sentiment [11] - Multiple factors suggest that precious metals are expected to continue their strong performance. However, with the approaching National Day holiday in China, it is advisable to reduce positions at high prices to lock in profits [11] Group 5: Trading Strategies Unilateral Trading - Before the holiday, take profits at high prices and hold light positions during the holiday [12] Arbitrage - Wait and see [13] Options - Buy deep out - of - the - money call options or collar call options to retain the possibility of profit during the holiday [13] Group 6: Data Reference Dollar Index and Precious Metals Trends - Charts show the historical trends of the dollar index against London Gold and London Silver [15][17] Real Yield and Precious Metals Trends - Charts show the historical trends of real yields against London Gold and London Silver [19][22] Domestic and Foreign Futures Trends - Charts show the historical trends of domestic and foreign gold and silver futures [26] Futures and Spot Trends - Charts show the historical trends of gold and silver futures and spot prices [28][29] Domestic - Foreign Price Differences - Charts show the historical trends of domestic gold and silver futures premiums [32][34] Gold - Silver Ratio - Charts show the historical trends of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex gold - silver ratios [41][43] ETF Holdings - Charts show the historical trends of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF holdings [45][46] Futures Open Interest - Charts show the historical trends of gold and silver futures open interest [48][49] Futures Inventories - Charts show the historical trends of Shanghai gold and silver futures inventories [50][51] Trading Volume - Charts show the historical trends of Shanghai gold and silver futures trading volume [52][53] TD Data - Charts show the historical trends of gold and silver TD deferred fees and delivery volumes [55][58][61] Treasury Yield and Breakeven Inflation Rate - Charts show the historical trends of nominal interest rates, inflation expectations, real interest rates, and US Treasury yields [59]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various economic indicators and market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with a focus on upcoming U.S. labor market data that could impact gold's trajectory [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have shown resilience, with a recent increase to approximately $3788.86 per ounce, reflecting a 0.5% rise, despite a strong dollar supported by positive U.S. economic data [1]. - The market is closely monitoring key labor market indicators, including JOLTS job openings and the non-farm payroll report, which are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and, consequently, gold prices [2][3]. - The overall outlook for gold remains positive due to strong central bank demand and concerns over U.S. debt and persistent inflation, which are expected to provide a support base for gold prices [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The technical analysis indicates that gold has experienced a strong upward trend, with a six-week consecutive increase, although there are risks of a pullback as it approaches the $3800 psychological level [3][5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest a focus on selling during price rebounds around $3785-$3788 and buying on dips near $3750-$3752, with specific stop-loss levels set to manage risk [6][5]. - The market dynamics show a mixed signal across different time frames, indicating a need for careful entry points and risk management in trading strategies [5][6].

Market Performance - On September 26, the Shanghai gold futures contract reported a price of 862.50 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.88% from the previous day [1][2] - The opening price for the day was 857.70 CNY per gram, with a high of 865.28 CNY and a low of 857.38 CNY [1][2] Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on interest rate policies, indicating ongoing internal divisions regarding the need for further rate cuts [3] - Recent economic data showed an increase in U.S. personal consumption expenditures and GDP growth, leading to a reduced necessity for rate cuts by the Fed [4] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for September was recorded at 50.2, remaining above the growth threshold, while the Eurozone's PMI showed a decline [4] Fiscal and Monetary Conditions - The U.S. banking system's reserves fell below $3 trillion for the first time since January 1, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [5] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for August was reported at $344.79 billion, driven by increased spending and weaker corporate tax revenues [5] - The rising fiscal deficit and national debt, now at $37 trillion, continue to support precious metals [5] Political Developments - Significant political events have heightened global sensitivity, with the U.S. imposing new tariffs on pharmaceutical products and other goods, potentially benefiting gold in the long term [6] Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Precious metals, particularly silver, have seen notable price increases, driven by rising leasing rates in the silver market [7] - Short-term fluctuations in precious metals are influenced by the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields, with recent liquidity releases leading to recoveries in gold, silver, and equities [7] - Long-term support for precious metals remains strong due to global debt and geopolitical factors, although caution is advised for short-term trading volatility [7]

Core Insights - The pre-market futures are rising ahead of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The PCE Index numbers for August were in line with expectations, showing a month-over-month increase of +0.3% and a year-over-year increase of +2.7% [2][5] - Personal Income and Spending for August exceeded consensus estimates, with Personal Income at +0.4% and Personal Spending at +0.6% [2][3] Economic Indicators - "Real" Spending, adjusted for inflation, increased by +0.3% in August, indicating consumer strength but still below the year-to-date high of +0.7% [3] - Core PCE month-over-month decreased to +0.2%, while year-over-year core PCE remained at +2.9%, slightly below the previous high of +2.95% [4][5] Implications for Monetary Policy - The current PCE data suggests that while inflation is present, it is not out of control, which may influence the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates [6][9] - The Fed is unlikely to implement significant rate cuts, as it views the current rate of 4.00-4.25% as mildly restrictive, aiming for a target inflation rate of 2% [7] Market Expectations - The stock market is expected to react positively to the PCE report, with traders optimistic about the economic indicators [1][9] - A final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey is anticipated, with preliminary results showing a decline from previous months but still above earlier lows [8]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold market is experiencing a stagnant performance, with prices fluctuating around $3742 per ounce, unable to maintain the mild upward trend from the previous trading day due to strong U.S. macroeconomic data and mixed expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policy [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite external pressure from a strengthening dollar, gold prices are constrained by multiple factors, including cautious market sentiment ahead of the key U.S. inflation data, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, and expectations of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Recent global economic uncertainties, such as trade policy adjustments and escalating regional tensions, have enhanced gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset, limiting its price decline [2] Group 2: U.S. Economic Data - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the second quarter GDP annual growth rate to 3.8%, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.3%, indicating strong economic resilience [3] - Durable goods orders in August increased by 2.9%, reversing the previous month's decline and exceeding market expectations, while initial jobless claims also saw a decrease [3] - Divergent views among Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation pressures and monetary policy tightening are complicating the policy outlook, with current market pricing indicating a less than 90% probability of a rate cut in October and around 60% for December [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, gold prices are at a critical juncture, with key support levels between $3720 and $3715; a break below this range could trigger technical selling and push prices down to $3650 or even $3600 [4] - On the upside, gold faces resistance near $3753-$3754; a breakthrough could lead to a challenge of the historical high of $3790 set earlier in the week, and sustaining above the $3800 level would bolster confidence in a long-term upward trend for gold [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For precious metals, in the short - term, gold is weak while silver is strong, and in the long - term, they are expected to rise step - by - step. The reasons include short - term hedging factors such as concerns about the Fed's independence and increased stagflation risks in the US economy; geopolitical fluctuations in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East; the Fed's interest rate cuts and market expectations of further cuts; and the impact of the CRB commodity index and RMB exchange rate on the price [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.01%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 2.27% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term hedging: Trade agreements are reached in batches, but concerns about the Fed's independence resurface; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are being fulfilled. Hedging attribute: Geopolitical fluctuations in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The attempt by Trump to fire Fed Governor Cook and Cook's lawsuit against Trump for over - stepping his authority to remove her have raised concerns about the Fed's independence. Monetary attribute: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. Market expectations are that the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in October remains around 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year is still about 2 times. Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold showed different changes; domestic prices of Shanghai gold and gold T + D increased; various bases, spreads, and ratios also changed; positions in Comex gold, Shanghai gold, and gold TD had different trends; inventories in LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai gold also changed [2]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [5]. - **Funds and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [6]. - **Data Summary**: International prices of Comex silver and London silver increased; domestic prices of Shanghai silver and silver T + D also rose; bases and spreads changed; positions in Comex silver, Shanghai silver, and silver TD had different trends; inventories in LBMA, Comex, Shanghai silver, and silver in the Shanghai Gold Exchange changed, and the total explicit inventory increased slightly [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: Federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased slightly. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. Various bond spreads, inflation indicators, and economic growth indicators showed different changes [8][10]. - **Risk Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 16.79%, and the VIX index increased by 6.62% [11]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index increased by 1.46% [11]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectations**: Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in different periods from 2025 to 2027 are presented in the table [12].

Report Investment Rating - Gold investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoint - The medium - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations have intensified, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1] Other Key Points - Powell pointed out in a speech this week that the policy interest rate is still slightly restrictive and emphasized flexible adjustment based on data and economic prospects. Fed officials have a cautious attitude and are divided on subsequent interest rate cuts [1] - Attention should be paid to the US weekly initial jobless claims tonight, the PCE inflation data on Friday, and the progress of resolving the US government shutdown [1] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rate has been too high for too long and that the US will enter an easing cycle. Powell should have signaled a 100 - 150 basis - point interest rate cut. FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of interest rate cuts, while San Francisco Fed President Daly believes that further rate cuts may be needed [2] - As of September 19, global gold ETF holdings increased at the fastest pace in three years, with a total gold - holding volume of 3779.4 tons, reaching the highest level since August 2022. The net inflows in Q1 and Q2 this year were 226.6 tons and 170.5 tons respectively, far exceeding the same period last year [2] - As of September 19, the US's SPDR Gold Shares had the largest annual inflow of gold among global gold ETFs, with an annual increase in gold demand of 122.1 tons and a cumulative holding of about 994.4 tons. China's Huaan Yifu Gold ETF also had a significant inflow, with an annual increase in demand of 28.2 tons and a cumulative holding of about 74.7 tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current market conditions indicate a strong performance in precious metals, particularly gold, driven by expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Data - On September 24, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 860.00 CNY per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 1.03% with a trading volume of 285,621 lots and an open interest of 274,765 lots [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 853.15 CNY per gram, showing a discount of 6.85 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the policy interest rate remains slightly restrictive, allowing the Fed to better respond to potential economic developments [1]. - The market anticipates a high probability of interest rate cuts, with an 89.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 75.3% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The preliminary September PMI for the U.S. services sector was reported at 53.9, slightly below expectations, while the manufacturing PMI was at 52, also below prior values [1]. - The latest PMI data suggests that the U.S. economy shows some resilience, which may alleviate concerns about an economic slowdown [3]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Analysts interpret Powell's remarks as potentially opening the door for further rate cuts, maintaining high expectations for U.S. liquidity easing [3]. - Despite the risks of stagflation and geopolitical conflicts, the long-term value of precious metals remains strong, with a continued inclination towards gold in global asset allocation [3].