张尧浠：美联储决议来袭、金价仍有望再探3500美元 上交易日周二(5月6日)：国际黄金如期继续反弹拉升强势收涨，继续走出雷同于4月8日收取止跌倒垂形态后的连续反弹攀升行情，同时也暗示本周有望再探 3500美元或新高的可能。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3335.38美元/盎司，即8点时段先行录得日内低点3323.33美元后，则再度回升反弹，虽自10点时段触及3387美元回撤37美金至 3350美元，但就此多头再度发力，持续反弹走强，延续至美盘尾收盘时段录得日内高点3434.74美元，最终收于3430.35美元，日振幅111.41美元，收涨94.97 美元，涨幅2.85%。 影响上，因美国可能对进口药品征收关税，亚洲买家节后重返黄金市场，推动金价早盘拉升，虽有所遇阻回撤，但看涨买盘仍在，另外，印度武装部队发 动"辛杜尔行动"，对巴基斯坦多个地点进行攻击，再加上有消息称，如果谈判失败，欧盟将对1000亿欧元的美国商品征收关税，并且，美国3月贸易逆差扩 大至创纪录的1405亿美元等，助力金价持续走强拉升，冲击3400美元上方，并持稳收线。 展望今日周三(5月7日)：国际黄金受到今日凌晨印巴局势陡然升级的影响，小幅高开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of Bank Indonesia indicates that in the United States, not only could economic growth slow down, but inflation may also rise, impacting the monetary policy outlook of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Economic growth in the U.S. is at risk of slowing down [1] - Inflation in the U.S. may experience an upward trend [1] - These factors could significantly influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the volatility of precious metal prices has increased, prompting banks to issue risk warnings to investors regarding precious metal investments [1][2][4] - Construction Bank has repeatedly issued similar warnings throughout the year, indicating a significant rise in market risk associated with precious metals [4][6] - Several banks have raised the minimum investment thresholds for gold accumulation business, thereby increasing the barriers for individual investors [8] Group 2 - On April 14, the spot gold price reached a new historical high of $3,245 per ounce, reflecting a continuous rise in international gold prices [9] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from $3,300 to $3,700 per ounce, marking a 12% increase, which is the most aggressive adjustment by the firm this year [10] - The World Gold Council reported an increase in global central bank gold reserves by 24 tons in February, driven by concerns over U.S. economic growth and rising inflation [11]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but indicates expectations for a Fed rate cut in May or June due to anticipated economic slowdown [10]. Core Insights - The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, excluding China, does not prevent a slowdown in US economic growth and inflation [4][10]. - The average effective tariff rate has increased by approximately 21 percentage points from the beginning of the year, raising concerns about trade uncertainty and its impact on growth [4][6]. - A surge in non-China imports is expected, which may dampen growth in Q2 [4][9]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The baseline 10% tariff remains in place against all countries, with significant increases for many [6]. - New tariffs of 105% on Chinese goods are in addition to existing tariffs, contributing to a high effective tariff rate [6]. - Sector-specific tariffs on autos, aluminum, and steel are still enforced, with new tariffs anticipated on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [6]. Economic Forecast - The report anticipates a slowdown in growth, leading to potential Fed policy rate cuts of 125 basis points this year [10]. - The dynamics of the 90-day tariff pause may lead to a temporary surge in imports, affecting Q2 growth negatively [9]. - Consumer spending may initially strengthen in Q2 but is expected to slow down in Q3 due to ongoing uncertainty [9].

市场分析：市场对美联储降息次数的定价过多 金十数据4月8日讯，贝莱德在一份报告中说，货币市场对美联储多次降息的预期过高，忽视了通胀上升 的风险。它表示："我们倾向于美联储今年降息4至5次，各25个基点的市场定价。"贝莱德预计，随着即 将到来的关税推高通胀，全球的借贷成本将高于疫情前。"我们认为，美国新一波关税的计划和其他国 家的反应强化了这一点，即我们将处于一个利率和长期债券收益率仍高于大流行前的世界。"世界上一 些地区的关税和宽松的财政政策可能会推高通胀。 ...