集运指数（欧线）观点： 10空单持有；逢高酌情加仓 国泰君安期货研究所 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 日期：2025年6月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 01 核心观点：10空单持有；逢高酌情加仓 | | 过去一周，集运指数偏弱震荡，主力2508合约周一至周四处在2000~2200点盘整。周五2508增仓下跌，最终收盘于1890点。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 欧线即期运费 | 欧线基本面 | 美线及宏观事件 | 盘面交易逻辑及策略建议 | | 7月第一周马士基、PA、MSC推涨幅度均值400美元 | 7月已无待定航次，周均运力30.6万TEU/周，环 | | | | /FEU。 | 比6月上涨3.4%（或1万TUE/周）。具体而言，7月上 | 6月下旬美西主流船司报价暂稳在 | | | | 旬（wk27、wk28）平均30.1万TEU/周，7月下旬 | 2500~30 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest data on EC futures contracts, shipping indices, and market news. It shows the price trends of different EC futures contracts, the changes in shipping indices, and the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on the shipping industry. The report also mentions the current situation of downstream cargo space bookings and the price increase announcements of shipping companies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices**: EC2506 closed at 1898.0 with a -0.20% change, EC2508 at 2092.0 with a 2.65% change, EC2510 at 1427.9 with a 0.83% change, EC2512 at 1595.6 with a -0.96% change, EC2602 at 1430.2 with a -0.09% change, and EC2604 at 1243.8 with a 0.27% change [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each contract vary, with EC2508 having the highest trading volume of 75737 and an open interest of 42767, showing a decrease of 1784 in open interest [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads between different contracts show fluctuations. For example, the spread between EC2506 - 2508 was -194.0, and it has changed compared to previous periods [2]. 3.2 Shipping Indices - **SCFIS**: Updated on 2025/6/9, it was 162281, showing a 29.53% increase from the previous period, with an expected 0.46% change in the next period [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated on 2025/6/13, it was 1844, a 10.62% increase from the previous period, with an expected 5.04% change in the next period [2]. - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated on 2025/6/13, it was 1488.87, a 6.57% increase from the previous period, with an expected 1.56% change in the next period [2]. - **NCFI (European Line)**: Updated on 2025/6/13, it was 1307.92, a 16.40% increase from the previous period, with an expected 5.25% change in the next period [2]. - **TCI (European Line)**: Updated on 2025/6/17, it was 869.91, showing no change from the previous period, with an expected 2.08% change in the next period [2]. 3.3 Shipping Capacity and Booking Situation - **Shipping Capacity**: In June and July 2025, the average weekly shipping capacity is 29.7 and 29.3 million TEU respectively. The capacity is neutral from the second half of June to the first half of July and is relatively high in the second half of July [2]. - **Booking Situation**: Downstream customers are currently booking cargo space for the second half of June (week 24 - 25). The lowest price for this period is 2700 - 2800 US dollars from MSK, and the average price is about 2950 US dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market. Shipping companies have announced price increases for July, with an average price of about 3800 US dollars, equivalent to about 2700 points on the futures market [2]. 3.4 Market News - **Israel - Iran Conflict**: On June 18, Iran launched supersonic missiles at Israel. The conflict has led to a decrease in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The shipping industry is concerned, and some shipping companies are avoiding passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It is expected that the shipping cost through the Strait of Hormuz will increase [2].

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 当日行情： 现货方面，航司对 6 月线上报价较为平稳，显示 6 月涨价落地成色尚可,目前 大柜报集中在 2760~3300 美元区间，马士基欧基港 7 月初报价上涨至 3400 美元， HPL 大柜开舱价在 4345 美元左右，本周达飞进一步提涨 300 美元至 4645 美元， 较月末调涨 1045 美元~1710 美元，调涨幅度较大，观察其落地成色及其他航司会 否跟涨。考虑目前欧洲出口需求韧性较强，运力供给保持平稳，且报价和箱量都 有所企稳，旺季涨价短期难被证伪，涨价或有望得到基本面支撑逐步落地，若 6 月价格企稳，则远月旺季 08 合约中枢也应将上移、目前位置或存低估，而 10 月 作为传统淡季关注高空机会。 二、行业要闻 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021 ...

| | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/17 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基美 | 昨日成交量 | 作目寄合量 | | 持仓变动 | | | EC2506 | | 1934.3 | -0.19 | -681.5 | 1661 | | 5204 | -238 | | | EC2508 | | 2030.0 | -1.84 | -777.2 | 65871 | | 43658 | -1186 | | | EC2510 | | 1414.7 | -214 | -161.9 | 17666 | | 29238 | 328 | | | EC2512 | | 1611.2 | -1.39 | -358.4 | 2908 | | 6332 | -(54 | | | EC2602 | | 1453.6 | -1.30 | -200.8 | 754 | | 3131 | 84 | | | EC2604 | | 1273.7 | -1.12 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The EC2506 contract's final delivery settlement price may be close to 1900 points due to shipping schedule delays and container rejections in June. The EC2508 contract is characterized by strong current conditions but weak expectations. It is recommended to approach it with a volatile mindset (1900 - 2300 points). The strategy is to hold short positions for the 10 contract [12][14]. Summary by Related Content 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2506 closed at 1,934.3 with a -1.06% daily change, EC2508 at 2,030.0 (-4.04%), and EC2510 at 1,414.7 (-3.22%). The trading volume and open interest also varied, with EC2508 having the highest trading volume of 65,871 and EC2506 having the highest open interest of 5,204 [1]. - **Freight Index**: On June 16, 2025, the SCFIS European route index was 1,697.63 points (weekly increase of 4.6%), and the US - West route was 2,908.68 points (weekly increase of 33.1%). The SCFI European route was $1,844/TEU (bi - weekly increase of 10.6%), and the US - West route was $4,120/FEU (bi - weekly decrease of 26.5%) [1]. - **Spot Freight**: Different carriers' spot freight rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam and Shanghai - Antwerp routes varied, with prices ranging from $1,700 - $3,610 for 40'GP and $1,717 - $2,555 for 20'GP [1]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 98.15, and the US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.19 [1]. 2. Shipping Capacity - **Weekly Shipping Capacity**: There are two scenarios for China - Europe base weekly shipping capacity, with or without considering pending voyages. The data shows fluctuations in shipping capacity contributed by different alliances and carriers over different time periods [5][11]. - **Monthly Average Weekly Shipping Capacity**: Similar to the weekly data, there are two scenarios for monthly average weekly shipping capacity. The shipping capacity shows differences between 2024 and 2025 and varies by month [8][10]. - **June - August Shipping Schedule**: The shipping schedules of various alliances and carriers from June to August 2025 are provided, excluding pending voyages [6]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Geopolitical News**: Iran hopes to ease hostilities with Israel, and Trump's actions regarding trade agreements and the call for evacuation from Tehran are reported, which may have an impact on market sentiment [12][15]. - **Market Performance**: The container shipping index was weakly volatile. The main 2508 contract closed at 2030 points (down 4%), and the secondary main 2510 contract closed at 1414.7 points (down 3%). The previous week's speculation on the impact of Middle - East geopolitical tensions on the European route had limited actual effects [12]. - **SCFIS Index Forecast**: The SCFIS index on June 16 was lower than expected. It is expected to be around 1980 points on June 23 and may rebound to 2000 - 2050 points on June 30. The 2506 contract's delivery settlement price is expected to be close to 1900 points [12]. - **Shipping Company's Price Announcement**: CMA CGM announced price increases for early July, with a proposed price of $2250/TEU and $4100/FEU [12]. - **Market Fundamentals**: Since mid - June, with the increase in FAK prices, long - term contracts or index - linked contracts have become more attractive. Some shipowners are offering special prices at the end of June to build up the rejection rate. The weekly average shipping capacity in July is 30.6 million TEU (excluding CMA CGM's pending voyages in week 30). In August, if pending voyages are not considered, the weekly average shipping capacity is 29.8 million TEU/week; if considered, it rises to 31.3 million TEU [13]. - **US Route Freight**: US - West freight rates will continue to decline in late June, with a further increase in the decline rate. It is expected that the mainstream shipping companies' US - West quotes will fall below $3000/FEU. The US - East freight rate decline is relatively small, and it may fall to around $5500/FEU in the short term. Although there is an obvious increase in FOB bookings in the first and second weeks of July in the US - East, the pressure to stop the decline in freight rates is still high [13]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15].

运力安排:2025年6月、7月周均运力分别在29.7、29.3万TEU。6月下半月-7月上，运力中性,7月下半月运力偏多。 | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/16 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | | EC2506 | | 1937.9 | -0.21 | -685.1 | 632 | | 5442 | -916 | | | EC2508 | | 2068.0 | 4.20 | -815.2 | 127644 | | 44844 | -168 | | | EC2510 | | 1445.6 | 4.72 | -192.8 | 40857 | | 28910 | 1749 | | | EC2512 | | 1633.9 | 2.02 | -381.1 | 9787 | | 6396 | 281 | | | EC2602 | | 1472.8 | 2.07 | -2 ...

2025年6月4日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 欧元区5月制造业PMN初值49.4，预期49.3，前值49; 欧元区5月服务业PMW初值48.9，预期50.3，前值50.1。欧元区5月综合PMWI值49.5. 预期50.7. 前值50.4。欧元区5月Sentix投资者信心指数 -8.1，预期 -11.5，前值 -19.5。 5月财新中国制造业采购经理指数 (PMI) 录得48.3, 较4月下降2.1个百分点，2024年10月来首次跌至临界点以下。 美国5月Markit制造业PMW值52.3，创三个月新高，预期49.9，前值50.2; 服务业PMM初值52.3，创下两个月新高，预期51, 前值50.8; 综合PMI初值 52.1,预期50.3, 前值50.6。 中心 美法院裁定特政府越权，宏观情绪上或有提振，但现货市场挺价上仍 较为疲软,中美贸易战的缓和势必在90天会产生抢运的情况,需要 关注本次法院裁定后的最终结果。综上述,我们认为,一需要关注 90天现货运价区间，二是关税政策缓和下终端需求的反馈，三是裁 定的最终结果。 6月3日主力合约2508收盘2100.2，涨幅为0.76%，成交量8.64万 手,持仓量 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided documents. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - EC futures contracts show different price movements and trading volumes. For example, EC2508 had a 9.31% increase in price with a trading volume of 131,155 and an open interest increase of 2,813 [2]. - The month - to - month spreads of EC futures contracts also vary. For instance, the EC2506 - 2508 spread was - 323.0, with a day - on - day change of - 146.5 and a week - on - week change of 50.9 [2]. Shipping Indexes - Multiple shipping indexes are reported with their update frequencies, release dates, and changes. The Télat index decreased by 1.44% compared to the previous period, while the FBX11 index increased by 2.57% [2]. Capacity Arrangement - In June 2025, the weekly average shipping capacity is 297,300 TEU, with weekly capacities of 290,000, 290,000, 310,000, and 290,000 TEU respectively [2]. Recent Quotes on the European Line - In June, the average price in the first half - month is around $2,500 (equivalent to 1,770 points in the converted price). The MSK opening price is $2,100, and the Shanghai - Rotterdam price has risen to $2,383 [3]. News - On May 29, a US federal court blocked Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff from taking effect, ruling that it was an overstep of power. The Trump administration can appeal this decision [4]. - On May 30, the US White House submitted an Israel - supported cease - fire proposal to Hamas, aiming for a 60 - day cease - fire in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office denied reaching a cease - fire agreement [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2506 closely follows the spot freight rate and fluctuates within a range. The EC2508 may experience wide - range fluctuations (1900 - 2400 points) due to the shipping companies' price hikes in late June and July and the subsequent freight rate decline after the peak season, and it is recommended to wait and see. The EC2510 may be anchored to the lowest price of the year, and there are medium - to - long - term opportunities to short at high prices. The strategy is to hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread and pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 2510 contract at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of EC2506, EC2508, and EC2510 were 1,808.0, 2,131.0, and 1,392.4 respectively, with daily increases of 1.07%, 6.34%, and 0.90%. The trading volumes were 12,398, 131,155, and 20,291, and the open interests were 12,716, 46,578, and 24,224, with changes of - 3,230, 2,813, and 1,075 respectively [1]. - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 1,247.05, down 1.4% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1,719.79, up 18.9% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was 1,317, up 14.1% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was 3,275, up 6.0% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight**: The freight rates for 40'GP and 20'GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam or Antwerp of different carriers in June and July ranged from $1,358 - $3,260 for 40'GP and $1,467 - $2,305 for 20'GP [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.33, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.19 [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Market Sentiment**: The container shipping index was strong. CMA CGM's price increase announcements for late June and July, along with the US court's "halt" of tariffs, boosted market sentiment. The short - selling funds had previously shorted based on the under - expected rush of exports on the US route and the delivery logic [14]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: In the 23rd week, the mainstream shipping companies' FAK freight rates were revised to the range of $2,200 - $2,600/FEU, with an average of around $2,500/FEU, equivalent to about 1,750 points on the SCFIS index. Maersk's opening rate in the 24th week was $2,100/FEU, a slight decrease of $100/FEU compared to the previous period. COSCO's Shanghai rate in the 24th week was $2,800/FEU, up $200/FEU. There are still expectations for OA Alliance to announce price increases in the second half of June, with the expected price range of $3,000 - $3,500/FEU, and CMA CGM's expected price increase for July is around $4,100 - $4,200/FEU [14]. - **Capacity**: In the second half of June, the average capacity changed little but was more evenly distributed. In July, the weekly average capacity remained around 300,000 TEU/week after adjustments. On the US route, the weekly average capacity in June increased by 20% compared to May, and new routes were opened [15][17]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) was 0, indicating a neutral trend [19].

新华财经上海5月29日电（葛佳明） 5月29日，集运指数（欧线）主力合约大幅拉升，盘中一度涨超 9%，最高触及2189点。 海通期货研究所航运组负责人雷悦表示，集运指数的大幅拉升与中远海运（COSCO）公布的第24周现 货报价上涨有关，中远海运将40英尺的大柜的价格从2500美元提涨到2700美元，预计东方海外 （OOCL）也会同步跟进，现在整体6月上旬的涨价落地情况比较好，现货货量稳定，运力供给中性。 "目前集运期货指数的主要交易锚点其一是美线抢运的旺季共振，其二是欧线自身旺季周期的涨价高 度，前者叙事已经基本坍塌，所以现在更多回归欧线自身基本面。"雷悦认为，短期看，现阶段现货运 价相对稳定并保有上升可能的情况，盘面仍有反弹机会，但长期来看，需要关注船司挺价落地情况，以 及美线抢运规模，整体而言对美线抢运规模以及集运指数走势不持乐观预期。 从美线抢运规模看，根据统计，各航司从美线调配至欧线的运力累计接近20万TEU，但在第21周之后运 力有所减少。在"抢运"背景下，部分运力或将重新调配回美线。 但部分分析师对于美线抢运规模不持乐观预期，从高频运力数据显示，预计上海—北欧航线5月周均运 力环比有所下降。虽然6 ...