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集运早报-20251210
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 01:50
集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持会 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 EC2602 | | 1664.7 1619.8 | -0.31% 0.28% | -155.6 -110.7 | 451 19042 | | 3283 30/13 | -111 -753 | | | EC2604 | | 1073.6 | -0.38% | 435.5 | 2762 | | 19378 | -235 | | | EC2606 | | 1219.1 | 0.15% | 290.0 | 444 | | 2335 | 133 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1379.9 | 1.76% | 129.2 | 138 | | 1574 | -24 | | | EC2610 | | 1019.3 | -0.87% | 489.8 | 308 | | 4201 ...
集运日报:SCFIS小幅上涨,主力合约震荡上行,已建议轻仓试多,关注春节前出货行情,运价并无明显波动-20251209
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 06:42
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - SCFIS has a slight increase, and the main contract fluctuates upward. It is recommended to take a small - position trial long and pay attention to the pre - Spring Festival shipping market. The freight rate shows no obvious fluctuations [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a small position or wait and see [3]. - After the decline of optimistic sentiment and intense long - short game, SCFIS rises slightly, and the closing prices on the market show mixed trends. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Freight Index - On December 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 960.51 points, up 1.2% from the previous period [2]. - On December 5, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [2]. - On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1397.63 points, down 5.5 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1400 USD/TEU, down 0.28% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1550 USD/FEU, down 5.02% from the previous period [2]. - On December 5, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - The preliminary value of the euro - zone's manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6) [2]. - In October, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [3]. Main Contract Information - On December 8, the main contract 2602 closed at 1615.3, up 0.07%, with a trading volume of 19,300 lots and an open interest of 31,500 lots, a decrease of 749 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounds after a decline, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slows down. Risk - takers are recommended to take a small - position trial long in the main contract. When the market dips slightly, it is not recommended to add positions or hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position try [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back before making further decisions [4]. - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical News - On December 7, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the first phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement was basically completed. Israel would ensure the return of the remains of the last detainee and promote the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire, aiming at the disarmament of Hamas and the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip. Hamas member Basem Naim said that Hamas still adhered to the "right to resist" but was willing to discuss disarmament within the framework of promoting the establishment of a Palestinian state and proposed long - term cease - fire negotiations of 5 to 10 years [5].
建信期货集运指数日报-20251209
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 02:31
Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Report Date: December 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index has slightly rebounded this week, and shipping companies have announced price increases, boosting market sentiment. The possibility that Contract 02 is overvalued cannot be easily verified in the short - term, and the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is low. Attention should be paid to the possibility that the April contract in the off - season is overvalued due to the impact, and the positive spread trading opportunity between 02 and 04 should be noted [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The SCFIS index has slightly rebounded this week, and major shipping companies such as Maersk, HPL, and Premier Alliance have announced price increases, which may boost the market's expectation of price increases before the Spring Festival. There may be an incentive game for the pre - Spring Festival shipping rush. It's hard to prove whether Contract 02 is overvalued in the short - term, and short - selling is not cost - effective. Attention should be paid to the possibility that the April contract in the off - season is overvalued, and the positive spread trading opportunity between 02 and 04 [8] 3.2 Industry News - **China's Export Container Shipping Market**: From December 1 to December 5, the market remained stable. The comprehensive index slightly declined due to different supply - demand fundamentals and price fluctuations in ocean routes. China's November official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing industry [9] - **European Routes**: The eurozone's October unemployment rate was 6.4%, slightly higher than the previous value, showing weak economic recovery momentum. Transport demand was relatively stable this week, and market freight rates slightly declined. On December 5, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1400/TEU, a 0.3% decrease from the previous period [9] - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was basically in sync with European routes, with a slightly better supply - demand situation. The spot booking price slightly increased. On December 5, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2300/TEU, a 3.0% increase from the previous period [9] - **North American Routes**: The US November ADP employment decreased by 32,000, and the ISM manufacturing PMI index dropped to 48.2, indicating poor economic recovery prospects. Transport demand growth was weak this week, and the spot booking price declined. On December 5, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $1550/FEU and $2315/FEU respectively, down 5.0% and 4.7% from the previous period [10] - **Other News**: Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced PSS increases for some routes. There were also political and military news related to the Middle East and Israel, as well as news about Maersk's possible resumption of Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation and Israeli political events [10] 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices** - **SCFIS Index**: On December 8, 2025, the SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) was 1509.1, up 25.45 (1.7%) from December 1; the SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) was 960.51, up 11.74 (1.2%) from December 1 [12] - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market** - **Trading Data on December 8**: For different contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, etc., details of opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change are provided [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts** - Multiple charts are presented, including those related to container shipping spot prices, container shipping index (European routes) futures trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates [13][18][19][23]
集运日报:班轮公司宣涨1月运价盘面偏强震荡,已建议轻仓试多,关注春节前出货行情,运价并无明显波动-20251208
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 06:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - Maersk's announcement to raise freight rates in January boosts the bullish sentiment of long - positions, and the futures market shows a strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On December 1st, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 948.77 points, down 14.4% from the previous period [2] - On December 5th, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 962.38 points, down 1.05% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 967.55 points, down 5.57% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [2] - On December 5th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1397.63 points, down 5.5 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1400 USD/TEU, down 0.28% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1550 USD/FEU, down 5.02% from the previous period [2] - On December 5th, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1114.89 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1447.56 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 878.1 points, down 0.4% from the previous period [2] PMI Data - In October, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [3] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Sentix Investor Confidence Index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a predicted value of - 8.5 [2] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3] Futures Market - On December 5th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1609.9, with a gain of 4.04%, a trading volume of 37,300 lots, and an open interest of 32,200 lots, a decrease of 2007 lots from the previous day [3] - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounds after a pull - back, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slows down. Risk - takers are advised to try a light - position long on the main contract. When the market dips slightly, it is not recommended to add positions or hold losses, and stop - loss should be set [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try a light - position [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]
集运日报:班轮公司宣涨1月运价,盘面偏强震荡,已建议轻仓试多,关注春节前出货行情,运价并无明显波动。-20251208
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 02:41
2025年12月8日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) | 短期策略: 主力合约回撤反弹,远月合约波动放缓,风险偏好者已 | | --- | | 建议主力合约轻仓试多,盘面小幅跳水,不建议继续补仓,不建议 | | 扛单,设置好止损。 | | 套利策略:国际局势动荡背景下,各合约仍保持季节性逻辑,波动 | | 较大,建议暂时观望或轻仓尝试。 | | 长期策略:各合约已建议冲高止盈,等待回调企稳后,在判断后续 | | 方向 | | 跌涨停板:2508-2606合约调整为18%。 | | 我司保证金:2508-2606合约调整为28%。 | | 日内开仓限制: 2508-2606所有合约为100手。 | 财联社12月4日电,以色列国防军当地时间3日发布声明称,当天早些时候,巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动(哈马斯)武装组织在加沙地带拉法地区公然 违反停火协议,武装人员袭击了正在当地部署的以色列军队,造成5名士兵受伤。声明指出,作为回应,以军在情报部门的指引下,在加沙地带南部 对一名哈马斯成员实施了空袭。声明强调,以军部队仍按照停火协议部署,并将继续采取行动,消除任何直接威胁。(央视新闻) 班轮公司宣涨1月运价,盘面偏强震荡,已建议 ...
集运指数(欧线)观点:震荡市-20251207
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-07 07:45
集运指数(欧线)观点: 震荡市 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0015892 日期:2025年12月7日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 01 本周集运指数(欧线)观点总结:震荡市 12月周均运力32.1万TEU/周,空班数量4艘,与上周保持一致。 1月(12月29日-2月1日)待定航次维持3艘、空班数量维持1艘不变;Gemini 联盟官网船期显示,在1月新添一艘航次,由代名"MDV ELECTRA"号执行,始发港 挂靠宁波、上海,其中上海 ETD为 1 月 22 日。目前船名及其大小尚未完全落实(船期表中暂时记作12000TEU),故周均运力从32.2上修至32.7万TEU/周(未计入3 艘待定航次运力)。需要注意的是:中远AEU3 2025年51周~2026年3周船期延误较多(实际延误一周),边际上会利于船司推涨1月上旬运费、但也给1下旬市场带来 压力。整体而言,1月周均运力达32.7万TEU/周,运力水平不 ...
永安期货集运早报-20251205
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 05:17
ગઢ | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 EC2512 | | 昨日收篇价 1649.1 | 涨 -0.24% | 基差 -165.5 | 昨日成交量 270 | | 昨日持命量 3731 | 持仓变动 -82 | | | EC2602 | | 1585.0 | 2.92% | -101.4 | 27304 | | 34222 | -786 | | | EC2604 | | 1090.1 | 0.65% | 393.6 | 2881 | | 19129 | 132 | | | EC2606 | | 1255.1 | 0.05% | 228.6 | 178 | | 2141 | -26 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1385.6 | 0.40% | 98.1 | 125 | | 1549 | -28 | | | EC2610 | | 1040.2 | -0.19% | 443.5 | 297 | | 3961 | 72 ...
建信期货集运指数日报-20251204
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 01:57
1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: December 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index declined again this week, indicating that the price increase in late November was not fully implemented, and the price increase by shipping companies in the first half of December was also below expectations. Maersk's aggressive pricing strategy may suppress the price - raising space of other airlines, and there is a possibility that other airlines will cut prices to attract cargo following Maersk. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the market may engage in incentive - based competition for the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. It's hard to prove whether the EC2602 contract is overvalued in the short term, and the cost - effectiveness of shorting is not high. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the off - season April contract being overvalued and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Spot Market**: The SCFIS index declined again this week. Shipping companies' price increases in the first half of December were below expectations. Maersk's quotes were the most aggressive, suppressing other airlines' price - raising space. There is a possibility of other airlines following Maersk to cut prices. The market may have incentive - based competition for the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. It's difficult to determine the over - valuation of the EC2602 contract in the short term, and the short - selling cost - effectiveness is low. Attention should be paid to the over - valuation possibility of the April contract and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8]. 4.2行业要闻 - **Overall Market**: From November 24 to 28, the China Export Container Shipping Market was generally stable, with different routes showing differentiated trends. The comprehensive index increased slightly. The Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index on November 28 was 1403.13 points, a 0.7% increase from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: The eurozone's November composite PMI was 52.4. The service industry PMI was 53.1, the best in a year and a half, while the manufacturing PMI was 49.7, lower than expected. Transport demand was stable, and spot market booking prices rebounded after continuous declines. The Shanghai - Europe basic port market freight rate on November 28 was $1404/TEU, a 2.7% increase from the previous period [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market trend was in sync with European routes, and market freight rates stopped falling and rebounded. The Shanghai - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate on November 28 was $2232/TEU, an 8.6% increase from the previous period [10]. - **North American Routes**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased, but the number of continued claims was rising. Transport demand was stable, and market freight rates showed a differentiated trend. The Shanghai - US West and US East basic port market freight rates on November 28 were $1632/FEU and $2428/FEU respectively, with a - 0.8% and 1.8% change from the previous period [10]. - **Other News**: Maersk's statement on resuming Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation was inconsistent. There were developments in the Israeli - Palestinian issue, including Netanyahu's pardon application, Hamas's threat to end the cease - fire, and military operations by the Israeli Defense Forces [10]. 4.3数据概览 4.3.1集运现货价格 - **European Routes**: The SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) on December 1, 2025, was 1483.65 points, a - 9.5% decrease from November 24 [12]. - **US West Routes**: The SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) on December 1, 2025, was 948.77 points, a - 14.4% decrease from November 24 [12]. 4.3.2集运指数(欧线)期货行情 - The report shows the trading data of container shipping European line futures contracts on December 3, 2025, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for different contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, etc [6]. 4.3.3航运相关数据走势图 - The report provides multiple charts related to shipping data, including European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][20].
集运日报:回撤或已到位主力合约连续反弹已建议轻仓试多关注春节前出货行情运价并无明显波动-20251203
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 07:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The retracement may be in place, and the main contract has rebounded continuously. It is recommended to take a small - position long in the main contract and focus on the pre - Spring Festival shipping market. The freight rate has no obvious fluctuation. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is suggested to participate with a small position [2][4] - With the interweaving of long and short information such as some liner companies' price increase announcements and the decline of the latest SCFIS index, the contracts rise and fall differently. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index Information - On December 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 948.77 points, down 14.4% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [3] - On November 28, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [3] 3.2 Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [4] - In the US in October, the S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [4] - In the eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Sentix investor confidence index was expected to be - 8.5, with the previous value of - 9.2 [3] 3.3 Contract Information - On December 2, the main contract 2602 closed at 1534.2, with a gain of 2.16%, a trading volume of 24,700 lots, and an open interest of 36,300 lots, a decrease of 1882 lots from the previous day [4] 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - **Short - term strategy**: For risk - preference investors, it is recommended to take a small - position long in the main contract. When the market dips slightly, do not add more positions, do not hold losses, and set stop - losses [5] - **Arbitrage strategy**: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a small position [5] - **Long - term strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises to a high level, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5] 3.5 Other Information - Some liner companies have announced price increases for late December, but the latest SCFIS index is declining, with long and short information intertwined, and the contracts rise and fall differently [4] - The Iran - Israel situation: Iran is seeking to restore its military potential and re - arm regional forces to confront Israel, including restoring the military capabilities of the Houthi armed forces and smuggling weapons to the West Bank for attacks on Israel [6] - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for these contracts is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]
集运早报-20251203
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 02:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC2512 contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are对标 to the second - half of December's cabin space, and the price is expected to be stable with a slight increase. - The EC2602 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot market in the short - term, and there is a chance for a higher price if the peak season is realized. Reasons include the late Chinese New Year, strong cargo volume on the European route this year, and the contract covering a period with a potential seasonal price peak. - The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2512 closed at 1633.6 with a - 0.19% change; EC2602 at 1534.2 with a 2.719% change; EC2604 at 1072.1 with a - 0.55% change; EC2606 at 1233.2 with a - 0.31% change; EC2608 at 1374.9 with a 1.30% change; EC2610 at 1032.6 with a - 0.06% change [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For example, EC2512 - 2504 was 561.5, EC2512 - 2602 was 99.4, and EC2502 - 2604 was 462.1, with corresponding changes compared to previous days and weeks [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Indexes**: The spot price (per point) on December 1, 2025, was 1483.65, down 9.50% from the previous period. SCF on November 28, 2025, was 1404 dollars/TEU, up 2.71%; CCFI was 1449.34 points, up 1.14%; NCFI was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% [2]. - **European Route Spot Situation**: In December, the early - month price increase failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the disk. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2200 dollars, and the current central price is 2270 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points. Some shipping companies adjusted prices, and it is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for January's cabin space in early December. On Tuesday, MSK's opening price for Week 51 was 2400 dollars, up 200 dollars from the previous week, equivalent to 1660 points [4]. Related News - On November 26, the mediators of the Gaza cease - fire agreed to stop violations and implement the second phase of the agreement. - On November 29, Lebanon's Hezbollah said it would retaliate against Israel for the attack on its senior commander [5].