Core Viewpoint - The Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack indicates that monetary policy is currently at a good level, allowing for a pause in interest rate cuts to assess the impact of the previous cumulative 75 basis points reduction on the economy [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - Hammack emphasizes the primary goal of bringing inflation back to target levels [1] - The economic data received by policymakers shows that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-on-year in November [1] - Hammack expresses a cautious approach, stating that she will not overemphasize any single economic report and intends to observe broader economic conditions before the next meeting [1]

清华大学国家金融研究院院长、清华大学五道口金融学院副院长田轩： 我国降准、降息尚有一定空间 "十五五"后，我国货币政策有哪些发力空间？田轩表示，步入"十五五"，中国货币政策在"稳增长、调 结构、促改革、防风险、惠民生"总体框架下有多重发力空间，可从多个维度展开。首先，总量调控工 具精准化运用。在"适度宽松"基调下，根据经济修复节奏和通胀水平，灵活运用降准、公开市场操作等 工具，保持流动性合理充裕。我国降息尚有一定空间，能降低金融机构资金成本、引导实体融资利率下 行，还能为银行体系提供长期资金。 其次，结构性工具深度与广度拓展。在现有基础上，聚焦国家重大战略和薄弱环节，如加大对科技创新 等领域定向支持，通过提高额度等方式增强政策直达性和精准性，探索将新兴产业和重点项目纳入支持 范围。 此外，跨周期与逆周期调节协同强化。"十五五"需平衡中长期目标与短期波动，货币政策要增强前瞻性 和灵活性，立足当前逆周期调节，着眼长远跨周期设计，营造平稳货币金融环境。 同时，为激励商业银行信贷投放、避免资金"空转"，田轩建议，明年人民银行可升级现有结构性工具， 强化激励约束与精准滴灌：提高对科技型中小企业等信贷支持，按"硬科技"指 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the report industry investment rating information 2. Core View of the Report - The significance of whether the Fed will cut interest rates below the neutral rate to the US Treasury and precious metals markets is analyzed, and four scenarios are proposed, with scenarios two and three having a relatively high probability [2] - Monetary policy may become the focus of China's incremental policies in 2026 [2] - Upstream price indicators have further rebounded [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - After the Fed cut interest rates to the 3.5 - 3.75% range, this round has cumulatively cut interest rates by 175BP. The key to future interest rate cuts lies in whether to cut below the neutral rate. Four scenarios are analyzed, and the impacts on the US Treasury and precious metals markets are different. Scenarios two and three are more likely [2][10][11] - The central economic work conference's requirements imply that fiscal policy in 2026 may maintain the ratios of total fiscal expenditure/GDP and general public budget revenue/GDP stable. With limited decline space for real - estate - related revenue, monetary policy may be the focus of incremental policies [2][13] - This week, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.09% week - on - week and 24.08% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key vegetables decreased by 0.30% week - on - week and increased by 17.61% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 0.70% week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.20%. The domestic cement price index increased by 0.44% week - on - week; the Nanhua iron ore index increased by 0.92% on average week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons decreased by 2.32% week - on - week; the rebar inventory index decreased by 7.54% week - on - week. The production material price index increased by 0.10% week - on - week and decreased by 1.76% year - on - year. Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 3.10% and 3.42% on average week - on - week respectively. The LME copper spot price increased by 0.41% on average week - on - week; the aluminum spot price increased by 0.20% on average week - on - week, and the copper - gold ratio decreased by 1.87% week - on - week. From December 1 - 18 this year, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 293,000 square meters, compared with about 498,000 square meters per day in December 2024 [2] 3.2 High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The document provides multiple charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macro - economic indicators, such as the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export value year - on - year, and the relationship between the production material price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [29][33][37] 3.3 Important High - frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - The document provides multiple charts showing important high - frequency indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan, such as the US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rate, and the US initial jobless claims and unemployment rate [97][102][108] 3.4 Seasonal Trend of High - frequency Data - The document provides multiple charts showing the seasonal trends of high - frequency data, such as the daily average production of crude steel (decade) and the production material price index [112][121][127] 3.5 High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The document provides charts showing the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [166][167]

展望未来，分析警告不应过度解读单月通胀数据的疲软。部分领域的价格压力，例如商品通胀，可能在后续月份出现小幅回升。与此同时，当前显示疲软的 住房价格数据也存在后续修正或改变的可能性。 有观点指出，美联储的政策制定者或将更为关注即将发布的十二月通胀数据，以此来更全面地评估物价变化的真实趋势。尽管十一月数据显示出通胀放缓的 迹象，但其影响可能相对有限。分析认为，核心通胀指标的意外下行部分受到技术性及时间相关因素的干扰，并不完全代表整体通胀压力得到普遍缓解。 最新公布的美国十一月消费者价格指数数据一度提振市场情绪，整体与核心通胀指标均低于预期，进一步强化了市场关于明年美联储可能降息的判断。然 而，华尔街机构分析认为，这份报告可能不足以在短期内实质性改变货币政策的走向。 具体来看，住房相关成本的涨幅显著低于长期趋势，这对整体指数构成了明显拖累。这一现象可能部分归因于十月数据统计的技术性因素，也可能与十一月 价格采集的时间点较晚有关。分析人士提醒，相关数据处理方法尚未完全明确，这意味着未来几个月的通胀数据仍存在发生波动的可能性。 除了消费者价格指数，市场也密切关注美联储更为重视的个人消费支出价格指数。初步估算显示，近两个 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, the entire curve of US Treasury yields declined slightly by 3 - 5bp. Although inflation and employment data are favorable for the bond market, the decline in interest rates is not significant. This is because the market doubts the validity of the data from October and November, and the expected change in the interest - rate cut path is small [2][11]. - The Bank of Japan raised the policy rate to 0.75%, but the yen continued to weaken. The "limited hawkish" stance of the Bank of Japan is due to the need to balance multiple pressures. As the yen approaches the "intervention level", the actions of the Japanese Ministry of Finance may affect the pricing of US Treasuries and the stock market [3][12]. - The US employment situation shows that the labor market has not changed significantly, with employers reluctant to increase recruitment significantly but not initiating large - scale layoffs. The economic growth momentum is weakening, and inflation is showing a downward trend [21][22][24]. - In the asset market, German medium - and long - term bonds and Japanese bonds rose; the global equity market was highly differentiated; black - series and chemical commodities strengthened, while grains and digital assets were under pressure; most global foreign exchange markets declined, with only the Russian ruble supported [26][27][28][29]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 US Treasury Yield Review - **Yield Changes**: From December 12 to December 19, 2025, the yields of 1 - month, 1 - year, 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year US Treasuries decreased by 5bp, 3bp, 4bp, 5bp, 3bp, and 3bp respectively, reaching 3.71%, 3.51%, 3.48%, 3.70%, 4.16%, and 4.82% [2][11]. - **Reasons for the Limited Decline**: The market doubts the validity of the data from October and November, and the expected change in the interest - rate cut path is small [2][11]. - **Japanese Interest - Rate Hike Impact**: The Bank of Japan raised the policy rate to 0.75%, but the yen continued to weaken. As the yen approaches the "intervention level", the actions of the Japanese Ministry of Finance may affect the pricing of US Treasuries and the stock market [3][12]. - **Auction Results**: On December 17, the auction of 20 - year US Treasuries was robust, with a winning bid rate of 4.798%, a bid - to - cover ratio of 2.67 times (higher than the previous value of 2.41 times), and a tail spread of - 2.500 (higher than the previous value of - 0.200) [17]. 3.2 US Macroeconomic Indicator Review - **Employment**: In November, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 64,000, higher than the forecast of 50,000 and the previous value of - 105,000. The unemployment rate was 4.6%, higher than the forecast of 4.5% and the previous value of 4.4%. The average hourly wage growth rate was 0.1% month - on - month, lower than the forecast of 0.3% and the previous value of 0.4%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of December 13 decreased to 224,000 [21]. - **Business Index**: In December, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 51.8, lower than the forecast of 52.0 and the previous value of 52.2; the service PMI was 52.9, lower than the forecast of 54.0 and the previous value of 54.1, hitting a six - month low. The US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was - 10.2, lower than the forecast of 2.5 and the previous value of - 1.7 [4][22][24]. - **Inflation**: In November, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the previous value of 3.0% and the forecast of 3.1%. Some officials believe that there is a large space for the Fed to cut interest rates [4][22][24]. - **Housing Market**: In November, the annualized total of existing home sales in the US was 4.13 million units, with a median price of $409,200, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The housing market showed a significant differentiation, with low - priced housing sales under pressure and the high - end market relatively strong [24]. 3.3 Major Asset Review - **Bonds**: German medium - and long - term bonds and Japanese bonds rose. The yields of German 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, and 30 - year bonds increased by 1bp, 3bp, 4bp, and 6bp respectively. The yields of Japanese 1 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - year bonds increased by 1.4bp, 0.7bp, 1.6bp, 2.4bp, and 1.6bp respectively [26]. - **Equities**: The global market was highly differentiated. The Vietnam VN30, UK FTSE 100, and France CAC40 rose by 3.55%, 2.57%, and 1.03% respectively, while the South Korea Composite Index, Japan's Nikkei 225, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell by 3.52%, 2.61%, and 1.10% respectively [27]. - **Commodities**: Black - series and chemical commodities strengthened, while grains and digital assets were under pressure. The coke index, coking coal index, and soda ash index rose by 9.82%, 9.11%, and 4.53% respectively, while CBOT wheat, CBOT soybeans, and Bitcoin fell by 3.68%, 2.55%, and 2.37% respectively [28]. - **Foreign Exchange**: Most global foreign exchange markets declined, with only the Russian ruble supported. The ruble rose by 0.35%, while the South Korean won, euro, and British pound fell by 0.62%, 0.37%, and 0.33% respectively [29]. 3.4 Market Tracking The report provides multiple charts, including the latest target - rate expectations of FED WATCH, the simulated trends of the US dollar, US stocks, US Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin this week, the auction panel of US Treasuries, and the yield curves of US Treasuries, Japanese bonds, and German bonds, etc., to track the market situation [13][14][17].

Group 1 - The report highlights an increase in market attention towards monetary policy, with a slight recovery in market sentiment as funding rates continue to decline [2][8] - The report discusses two main questions: whether the recent drop in funding prices below a key level indicates a potential for further monetary easing, and how the market is currently pricing in expectations for loose monetary policy [2][8] - Historical data suggests that when the DR001 rate breaks below its long-term range, it often signals a change in monetary policy, as seen in late 2021 when a similar drop preceded a rate cut [3][9] Group 2 - The report notes that while the market has begun to price in expectations for loose monetary policy, the adjustments have been cautious and moderate, primarily following the decline in funding prices [5][23] - Recent trends show that the yield spreads between various government bonds and funding rates have reached annual highs, particularly for the one-year bonds, although they remain in the lower quartile over a longer time frame [5][16] - The report indicates that the average yield decline for one-year and ten-year government bonds is approximately 72 basis points, while the average decline across all maturities is about 76 basis points, compared to a two-year cumulative reduction of 62 basis points in OMO rates, LPR, and loan rates [18][26] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the recent drop in funding prices reflects the central bank's supportive stance towards liquidity at year-end, with historical precedents suggesting that such a break could trigger a rate cut in the following quarter [25][28] - It is noted that while the market's response to these changes has been moderate, there remains a certain safety margin between interest rates and funding prices, which could influence short-term rates if a policy adjustment occurs [25][28] - The report concludes that structural supply and demand concerns for long-term bonds persist, indicating that the current easing in short-term rates may not directly lead to a decline in long-term rates, with the potential for yield spreads to widen further [28][32]

美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰周五重申，由于通胀已降温，且货币政策需要抵消就业市场风险，美联储应降息。 现货白银价格盘中突破67美元/盎司 今天凌晨，现货白银价格突破67美元/盎司，再创历史新高，日内涨2.38%。纽约期银日内涨幅达3.00%。 KCM Trade首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示："较温和的通胀数据对黄金和白银来说有点像'双刃剑'，它有助于证明美联储'鸽'派 轨迹的合理性，但也意味着它们作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力有所下降。" 本周黄金价格在历史高位附近震荡运行，市场对黄金价格走势的预期依旧乐观，高盛预计2026年金价将涨至4900美元/盎司。 "就业市场正在放缓，如果继续沿着这个方向发展，而我们未能充分调整政策加以遏制，到2027年我们将陷入困境。"米兰说。 米兰是美联储内部最坚定支持降息的官员之一。在上周的美联储会议上，他投下反对票，主张降息50个基点，而大多数同僚倾向 于更小幅的25个基点降息。他的美联储任期将于1月31日结束。 截至发稿，纽约期银收涨3.34%，报67.395美元/盎司，本周累计上涨8.55%。现货白银价格收涨2.26%，报67.04美元/盎司。 沃勒在美联储主席面试中表现 ...

当然，哈塞特和特朗普的观点在当下并不被大多数美联储官员和经济学家接纳。许多美联储官员仍在担 心美国物价压力仍过高，甚至有些官员反对进一步降息，因为持续存在的高物价压力以及对特朗普关税 政策可能推高物价的担忧仍未消除。 特朗普显然并不受这些反对声音的影响，反而一再声称美国的通货膨胀已不再是令人担忧的问题，并且 一直在极力推动降息。上周三，他还在公开讲话中吹嘘称："我正在降低那些高昂的物价，而且速度很 快。" 12月21日，美东时间周五（12月19日），白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特公开表示，美国总统特朗普称美国 通胀水平较低的观点是正确的，尽管数据、公众舆论以及大多数经济学家都对此观点持不同看法。 美联储现任主席鲍威尔的任期即将于明年5月结束，而哈塞特就是目前最有望成为下届美联储主席的热 门人选之一。在特朗普可能即将公布他对下任美联储主席的提名人选之际，哈塞特的表态可能将着重表 明，他与特朗普在货币政策问题上持相同的宽松立场。 美国通胀实际已低于美联储目标？ 就在上周四，美国政府报告称，美国11月消费者价格指数（CPI）较上年同期上涨2.7%，尽管这一数字 低于9月份报告的3%，也低于市场预期，但也仍然高于美联储2% ...

Group 1 - The silver market is currently experiencing a structural shortage and a surge in industrial demand, which are the main drivers for its price increase, with analysts projecting silver prices to reach between $75 and $80 [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained interest rates and raised some economic growth and inflation forecasts, signaling a potential end to further rate cuts, although uncertainty remains high [1] - The Bank of Japan has raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, but this move did not significantly boost the yen as it was largely anticipated by the market [1] Group 2 - Silver prices have recorded a high point around $67.00, which may limit further upward movement; however, a strong breakout above this level could trigger bullish trading [2] - The $65.40-$65.35 area is currently providing support for the psychological level of $65.00, with critical support at approximately $64.75; a decisive break below this could lead to technical selling and deeper corrections [2] - If silver prices decline, they may test levels below $64.00, potentially reaching the intermediate support at $63.35, passing through the $63.00 mark [2]

上周，特朗普在接受《华尔街日报》采访时透露，他倾向于选择前美联储理事凯文·沃什或白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特担任主席。更令人瞩 目的是，他直言下一任美联储主席应该在利率设定上与他进行磋商，这明显打破了历任总统不干预利率决策的惯例。特朗普认为，他是 一个"聪明的声音"，应该被倾听。 据了解，目前进入最终候选名单的有三人：白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特、前美联储理事凯文·沃什以及现任美联储理事克里斯·沃勒。虽然 这三人都主张利率应低于当前水平，但似乎没有人明确表示愿意将利率降至特朗普所要求的"危机水平"。 特朗普周三与沃勒进行了会面。沃勒虽然是现任美联储官员中较早提出降息建议的人，但他同时也是美联储独立性的坚定拥护者。华尔 街见闻此前报道，沃勒曾公开表示，鉴于就业市场放缓且通胀受控，美联储仍有50至100个基点的降息空间，但他强调应采取稳健渐进的 方式，在经济增长和通胀控制之间寻求平衡。 美国总统特朗普近期就下一任美联储主席人选发表了一系列引人关注的言论，其核心在于强调新任主席必须是"大幅降息"的支持者。这 一公开表态，不仅再次展现了他对现有货币政策的不满，更引发了关于总统是否意图干预美联储独立性的广泛讨论。 在全国讲话中 ...