金价再创新高，众声喧哗，但问题只有一个——2026年还值得买入吗，还是该撤退观望，这不是玄学， 是历史给出的试卷，而我们得交出答案， 1980年的那一跌，是教科书级别的警示金价从850美元直坠到440美元，跌去近半壁江山，这不是偶然， 而是货币政策与政治风险交织的合谋，那一年沃尔克上台，利率像火箭一样窜到天上，实际收益率飙 升，黄金这种不生息的东西，立刻从投资者心头跌落，机构抛售，美元吸金，避险情绪消退，金价被按 在地上摩擦，短期断崖，随后进入长达数十年的阴跌期，这是因果，不是运气， 回过头看，那场熊市的长期根源在于美国经济的回春，通胀被压下，股市走牛，美元强势，资本找到了 更有回报的去处，黄金只能做储备和饰品的角色，科技革命的浪潮把资金吸走，90年代末甚至出现央行 联合抛售，金价跌到多年低点，这说明一个简单而残酷的事实当风险偏好回升，避险资产被边缘化，黄 金就会被冷落， 2008年又一次给人当头棒喝，金融体系恐慌时，最令人大跌眼镜的是——连黄金都被卖了，机构为了流 动性，抛售一切可变现的资产，金价短期下挫近三成，随后美联储放水，如同注入补药，黄金又被唤回 市场怀抱，这是一出先抛售以渡难关，后因货币放松而获救 ...

全球资本市场的总开关，在2026年1月被卡住了。 比如他希望美联储下调基准利率下调至3%。意思是还得再降至少50个基点才能维持当前的平衡。 但是根据芝商所的数据，市场普遍都觉得，美联储在1月29日可能并不会对利率有所调整——这大概是鲍威尔最后能做的事情了。 因为鲍威尔和整个FOMC，基本上已经没有操作空间。一边是无论如何解决不了的通胀。一边是依然在失速的美国经济。 大家好，我是孙少睡，这是我的第487篇时评。 美联储1月的议息会议马上就要开了，但是核心议题却并不是接下来的货币政策。所有人目前都只有一个疑问——将要上台的这个人，到底是不是特朗普 的傀儡。 货币政策可以再讨论，但接班人是谁，他将要怎么做，这个已经没办法等待了。 目前最热门的人选是贝莱德公司的高管里克·里德尔。他没有央行从业经验，只是在华尔街混了几十年。当然他管理的资产足够庞大，他的观点也和特朗 普的足够契合。 1月22日公布的美联储最青睐的通胀指标——11月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%。实话实说是符合预期的，但这也不影响远远没有达到 2%的目标。 鲍威尔团队也不想因为降息被人贴上像通胀投降的标签。 美国12月非农就业只新增 ...

美联储：为期两天的FOMC货币政策会议开幕。 ...

2026年开年以来，欧元在全球汇市展现强势上行态势，兑美元持续冲高并逼近关键整数关口，成为非美 货币中表现亮眼的品种。这一走势核心源于欧元区通胀的韧性表现夯实欧央行维稳立场，叠加美欧货币 政策分化加剧、美元指数弱势走低形成的外部托底，不过欧元区经济复苏分化、关键阻力位博弈及美联 储政策不确定性，仍限制欧元单边上行空间，整体呈强势震荡格局。 欧元区通胀数据的超预期表现，成为欧元走强的核心内在动力。最新通胀数据显示，欧元区整体通胀率 回升且高于市场预期，能源价格涨幅扩大成为主要推手，核心通胀率保持稳定，服务业通胀虽有回落但 整体走势符合预期，通胀层面的韧性超出市场预估。 通胀的稳定表现直接夯实了欧洲央行的政策维稳立场，2026年降息预期彻底消散。尽管欧央行此前小幅 下调存款利率，但行长拉加德明确表态当前政策处于"良好位置"，会议纪要也显示委员对通胀风险存在 分歧，核心聚焦服务业通胀与工资增长变化。市场普遍预期欧央行2026年将维持利率稳定，部分机构甚 至预判2027年存在加息可能，政策的稳定性为欧元提供了坚实支撑。 美欧货币政策的分化格局，成为驱动欧元兑美元上行的关键外部因素。当前市场对美联储2026年实施多 次 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The People's Bank of China's "Three - Target System" monetary policy framework aims to maintain exchange rate stability, price stability, and promote economic growth. In 2026, the implementation of monetary policy and liquidity injection methods are restricted, and the central bank needs to balance the degree of easing [6]. - The adjustment of the real estate market and debt resolution have led to an endogenous contraction of credit financing demand. The goal of monetary policy has shifted to preventing the spread of real estate market risks and local debt risks, and a "moderately loose" orientation has been established [2][29]. - In 2026, open - market net purchases of treasury bonds and reserve requirement ratio cuts may be considered as liquidity injection tools. It is expected that there may be one 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026 if the net interest margin of commercial banks stabilizes, and the third and fourth quarters may be good time windows. There may be 1 - 2 comprehensive interest rate cuts, each with a 10BP reduction [3][34]. - In the stock market in 2026, high - tech sectors such as semiconductors and commercial aviation under the logic of self - controllability, as well as cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals, are expected to perform well [37]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the TL contract has recovered. Attention should be paid to the hedging opportunities at the ultra - long end. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish in the medium term, and strategies such as hedging on rallies, seizing opportunities to go long on inter - period spreads, and seizing opportunities for positive spreads are recommended [39][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 The People's Bank of China's "Three - Target System" Monetary Policy Analysis Framework - **Evolution of the Monetary Policy Framework**: The long - term goals of the People's Bank of China's monetary policy are to maintain the basic stability of the exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, keep prices stable, and promote economic growth. There is a reverse relationship between "full employment" and "price stability". In 2026, the implementation of monetary policy and liquidity injection methods are restricted due to multiple factors [6]. - **Evolution from "Quantity" to "Price" and the Establishment of a Modern Regulatory Mechanism**: The People's Bank of China has explored the path of market - oriented reform from "quantity" to "price" for more than thirty years. The current operation target is the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate. The central bank uses two types of tools for "quantity" injection to affect the price regulation of the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate and ultimately achieve long - term monetary policy goals. Since September 2024, the central bank has been exploring the construction of a modern central bank system [11][14]. 3.2 Real Estate Market Adjustment and Debt Resolution, Endogenous Contraction of Credit Financing Demand - **International Experience**: There is a cyclical cycle between monetary easing and the real estate market in major economies. Japan's economic decline after the signing of the "Plaza Accord" in the 1980s is a typical example [16]. - **Domestic Situation**: In 2015, China's monetary easing and exchange rate reform supported the real estate market and economic growth, but also led to the intensification of real estate market bubbles and the rise of local government implicit debt. Since 2022, due to the tightening of real estate regulation policies and the impact of the COVID - 19 pandemic, the real estate market has entered a deep - seated adjustment, and residents and enterprises are accelerating deleveraging. The central government has taken over local debt risks, and the goal of monetary policy has shifted to preventing risk spread, with a "moderately loose" orientation [21][24][29]. - **Forecast of Credit Financing Demand**: Endogenous credit financing demand is expected to be weak for a long time, and government bond financing will support the stock of social financing. It is estimated that the average monthly year - on - year growth rate of loan balances will be 6.1% in 2026, a further decline of 0.8 percentage points compared with 2025, and the average monthly year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing will be 8.0%, a decline of 0.6 percentage points compared with 2025 [30]. 3.3 The People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Choices - **Liquidity Injection**: Open - market net purchases of treasury bonds and reserve requirement ratio cuts may be considered as liquidity injection tools in 2026. It is expected that there may be one 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026 if the net interest margin of commercial banks stabilizes, and the third and fourth quarters may be good time windows [34]. - **Interest Rate Policy**: The main constraint on the central bank's interest rate cuts is the net interest margin of commercial banks. It is expected that there may be 1 - 2 comprehensive interest rate cuts, each with a 10BP reduction, after the net interest margin stabilizes [36]. - **Stock Market Outlook**: In 2026, high - tech sectors such as semiconductors and commercial aviation under the logic of self - controllability, as well as cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals, are expected to perform well [37]. 3.4 Treasury Bond Futures Market Tracking and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Last week, the TL contract of the treasury bond futures market recovered significantly. The market showed a characteristic of a stronger long - end and a relatively stable short - end, with the yield curve flattening. The net long positions of private funds, foreign investors, and wealth management subsidiaries increased [39]. - **Market Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the hedging opportunities at the ultra - long end. The short - end contracts are more resilient, and the volatility will focus on the ultra - long - end TL contract. The 30 - 10 spread provides arbitrage opportunities, and the effectiveness of basis arbitrage strategies has increased. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish in the medium term, and strategies such as hedging on rallies, seizing opportunities to go long on inter - period spreads, and seizing opportunities for positive spreads are recommended [39][40][42].

但今年货币政策可能不需要"踩太大的油门"。 "2026年是加大逆周期调节、扩大内需非常好的时点，也是非常关键的一年，因为经济已经有一个复苏 向上的势头，政策应该再往前迈一步。"日前，在中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）2025年第四季度宏观政 策报告发布会上，CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌提出，2026年我们 要更多倚重货币政策来扩大内需，激发经济复苏的内生动力。 不过，当前关于宽货币政策力度的分歧依然存在。中国金融四十人研究院执行院长郭凯认为，基于今年 对海外需求、固定资产投资、居民消费，以及政策支持力度等方面较乐观的预期，加上降息的制约因素 较多，今年货币政策可能不需要"踩太大的油门"。 扩内需应更多倚重货币政策 在此背景下，他建议，当前经济复苏需要从"政府主导"转向"政府主导+市场自发力量"双轮驱动，货币 政策在其中的作用尤为关键。对于财政政策，张斌认为，财政政策应该从结构上进一步优化，除以旧换 新等方向外，更多地"把钱花在老百姓想花钱都解决不了的事情上"。 CF40成员、北京大学国家发展研究院院长黄益平认为，当前，除了供强需弱进而扩内需的压力，缓解 低通胀压力同样迫切。从国际 ...

在俄乌冲突爆发三年后，通胀率和欧洲央行的关键利率已回落至2%——经济学家们正在研究未来如何 避免类似的误判。 纳科夫和加西比发现，标准的宏观经济模型难以解释自2022年以来观察到的通胀飙升，以及企业调整价 格的频率。 智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行(ECB)的一项研究显示，如果一个相对有限的价格冲击波及一个紧密联系 的企业网络，就可能引发大规模的通胀浪潮。 欧洲央行经济学家安东·纳科夫和巴塞罗那国际经济学研究中心研究员米歇尔·加西比在周二写道，这是 因为冲击会沿着供应链产生连锁反应，一家企业的产出成本，即为另一家企业的投入成本。 他们指出："当冲击规模较大时，这些级联效应会不成比例地扩大。一次重大冲击，例如生产率大幅下 降或全球大宗商品价格持续飙升，可能掀起一场波及整个经济的浪潮。" 这一研究结果有助于解释，为何在俄乌冲突导致能源成本飙升后，欧元区通胀率一度攀升至10%以上。 欧洲央行官员当时低估了其对消费者价格的影响，现在也承认自身的反应过于迟缓。 因此，他们构建了一个包含近40个部门的"详细经济模型"，各部门之间通过符合现实的投入产出关系相 连接。该模型重现了价格的跃升以及异常快速的价格调整速度。 研究得出 ...

2026 年 01 月 26 日 行业周报 看好/维持 银行 银行 银行周报（0119-0125）：总量货币政策仍有空间，结构性货币政 策先行落地 ◼ 走势比较 (10%) (2%) 6% 14% 22% 30% 25/1/27 25/4/9 25/6/20 25/8/31 25/11/11 26/1/22 ◼ 推荐公司及评级 | 工商银行 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 农业银行 | 增持 | | 杭州银行 | 买入 | | 江苏银行 | 买入 | 相关研究报告 <<江苏银行 2025 年三季度点评：盈 利能力提升，资产规模稳增>>-- 2025-12-07 证券分析师：夏芈卬 电话：010-88695119 E-MAIL：xiama@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523030003 研究助理：王子钦 ◼ 子行业评级 | 国 有 大 型 银 | 看好 | | --- | --- | | 行Ⅱ | | | 全 国 性 股 份 | 看好 | | 制银行Ⅱ | | | 区域性银行 | 看好 | E-MAIL：wangziqin@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S119012 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emphasis on relying more on monetary policy to expand domestic demand rather than fiscal policy is highlighted, as monetary policy can effectively influence individual behaviors and market dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Domestic Demand - Zhang Bin, a senior researcher at CF40, argues that expanding domestic demand through fiscal spending is limited by practical constraints, such as the need for homeowner consent for projects like elevator installations in old residential buildings [3]. - The report indicates that from 2018 to 2021, the average mortgage interest rate in China was 5.5%, while the average growth rate of second-hand housing prices was 4.1%, resulting in a net cost of home buying at 1.4%, which was lower than the average rental yield of 2.2% [3]. - In contrast, from 2022 to 2025, the average mortgage interest rate is projected to drop to 3.9%, with second-hand housing prices expected to decline at an annual rate of -4.8%, leading to a net cost of home buying rising to 8.7%, making buying less attractive compared to renting [3]. Group 2: Impact of Interest Rates - Lowering interest rates can reduce the cost gap between buying and renting, thereby increasing residents' willingness to purchase homes [4]. - Monetary policy is seen as a more sustainable approach to expanding domestic demand by improving expectations and optimizing the budget constraints and incentives for both corporate investments and consumer spending [4]. - The key to achieving these changes lies in the central bank's firm stance on inflation targets and significantly lowering policy interest rates, which can enhance market confidence and influence economic behavior [4].

行业涨跌榜 | 库号 证券代码 | | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [区间首日] 2026-01-19 | | | | | | ［区间尾日］2026-01-24 | | | | | | 单位 % ↑ | | | 1 | : 801780.SI | 银行(申万) | | -2.6979 | | 2 | 801770.SI | 通信(申万) | | -2.1196 | | 3 801790.SI | | 非银金融(申万) | | -1.4536 | 申万一级行业中，建筑材料、石油石化、钢铁涨幅靠前，银行、通信、非银金融、食品饮料跌幅靠前。 上周市场回顾 关键词：权益市场多数上涨 上周权益市场分化，上证指数上涨0.8%，深证指数上涨1.1%，沪深300下跌0.6%，创业板指下跌0.3%， 科创50上涨2.6%。 债市上涨，10年国债收益率收于1.83%左右，下行约1.3bp，7年国债收益下行2.2bp左右，1年国债收益 率上行约4.0bp，3年期中债企业债收益率下行约1.5bp。 | 成号 证券代码 | | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌 ...