Demand - New housing transactions continue to rise, with a week-on-week increase of 10% in the 20 cities monitored, although year-on-year figures show a decline of 16% [12][30] - In first-tier cities, new housing transaction area increased by 3% week-on-week, with Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen seeing increases of 49%, 7%, and 2% respectively, while Shanghai experienced a decline of 19% [12][21] - Second-tier cities saw a week-on-week increase of 13% in new housing transactions, while third-tier cities increased by 12% [12][19] Production - Industrial production remains stable, with the rebar operating rate holding steady at 42.3% and PTA operating rate slightly decreasing by 2.4 percentage points to 80.9% [47][61] - The operating rate for automotive tires has turned positive, supported by the "trade-in" subsidy policy, which is expected to bolster production in the short term [47][61] Investment - Rebar apparent consumption has shown weakness, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% to 2.19 million tons, and rebar prices fell by 0.2% to 3223.6 points [61][61] - Cement prices have decreased by 0.6% to 115.0 points, with a slight decline in cement shipping rates and an increase in cement inventory ratio [61][71] Trade - Port container throughput has decreased by 0.7% week-on-week, while the CCFI composite index rose by 8.0%, with significant increases in freight rates for the US West and European routes [73][81] - The CICFI composite index increased slightly by 0.5%, indicating a rise in import shipping prices [73][81] Prices - Agricultural product prices have shown weakness, with the wholesale price index declining by 0.3%, while pork and egg prices also fell slightly [85][89] - International crude oil prices have surged, with Brent crude rising by 8.9% week-on-week, driven by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand increases [91][96] Interest Rate Bonds - The upcoming issuance plan for special bonds in July exceeds 500 billion yuan, with a total of 6,956 billion yuan in bonds to be issued next week [104][109] - As of June 20, the cumulative issuance progress for new special bonds stands at 38.4%, with a total of 16,904 billion yuan issued this year [109][113]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a proactive macroeconomic policy, particularly through the implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, to address the uncertainties arising from the changing external environment and to ensure high-quality economic development [1]. PART.01: Reasons for Implementing Moderately Loose Monetary Policy - Global economic growth is slowing, with increased uncertainty due to rising trade protectionism. The IMF has revised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, and the WTO has cut the global trade growth forecast from 3.2% to 1.7% [2]. - The slowdown in global trade is primarily attributed to the U.S. government's tariff and trade policies, which have raised trade costs and inflation pressures, leading to reduced investment and economic growth [2]. - China's economy is highly integrated into the global market, with a trade dependence of 72.4% as of April 2025, and external shocks from global trade slowdowns are impacting China's foreign trade growth [2]. PART.02: Understanding Moderately Loose Monetary Policy - Monetary policy focuses on total demand management and counter-cyclical adjustments. It aims to restore balance between total demand and supply, ensuring price stability and economic growth [6]. - Moderately loose monetary policy involves dynamic adjustments based on macroeconomic and financial market changes, utilizing various tools to lower financing costs and stimulate demand [7]. - The policy framework includes five stances: loose, moderately loose, stable, moderately tight, and tight, with adjustments made according to economic conditions [8]. PART.03: Implementing Moderately Loose Monetary Policy - The implementation of moderately loose monetary policy has shown effectiveness in promoting economic growth and managing total demand [10]. - Key measures include lowering policy interest rates and maintaining reasonable growth in money and credit, with significant reductions in loan rates for enterprises and individuals [11]. - The People's Bank of China has introduced ten monetary policy measures to enhance support for the real economy, focusing on total, price, and structural aspects to ensure effective policy transmission and support for key sectors [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted two rounds of buyout reverse repurchase operations within the same month, indicating a proactive approach to manage liquidity and stabilize market expectations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Buyout Reverse Repo Operations - The PBOC initiated a buyout reverse repo operation of 400 billion yuan with a six-month term on June 16, following a 1 trillion yuan operation at the beginning of the month [1]. - This marks the first time the PBOC has utilized this tool twice in one month, reflecting a strategic move to enhance liquidity management [1]. Group 2: Signals from the Operations - The operations in June coincide with the maturity of 500 billion yuan of three-month and 700 billion yuan of six-month buyout reverse repos, leading to a net injection of 200 billion yuan by mid-June [2]. - The timing of these operations suggests an intention to guide market expectations and bolster confidence, as they were announced earlier than usual [2]. Group 3: Impacts of the Operations - The increase in mid-term liquidity through these operations is expected to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, especially during a period of significant government bond issuance and peak maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [3]. - The PBOC's actions signal a commitment to using various monetary policy tools to support credit availability for enterprises and households, thereby reducing financing costs in the real economy [3][4].

Group 1: Historical Policy Financial Instruments - Historical policy financial instruments were introduced during counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize the economy and enhance local investment capabilities, characterized by their ability to leverage social funds into long-term infrastructure investments, low costs, and rapid deployment [1][7][8] - The Special Construction Bonds, created in 2015 to address domestic economic downturn pressures, helped alleviate local expenditure pressures and meet funding needs for key projects, becoming a crucial tool for stabilizing growth in infrastructure [9][15] - In 2022, the Policy Development Financial Instruments were launched to actively expand effective investment, with a rapid implementation timeline that allowed for quick project initiation and support for infrastructure investment growth [21][27] Group 2: New Policy Financial Instruments - The new policy financial instruments are expected to focus on technology innovation, consumption, and foreign trade, with a market-oriented mechanism to address fiscal shortfalls and support key project capital needs [31][36] - Recent meetings in various regions indicate a proactive approach to deploying these new financial tools, with local governments emphasizing the importance of leveraging these instruments to stimulate effective investment [33][35] - The operational model for the new instruments will likely continue to involve policy banks leading the initiatives, with the central bank providing funding support through structural monetary policy tools [36]

Economic Performance - China's economy has shown strong resilience and vitality in 2023, with key indicators such as the service production index and retail sales of consumer goods growing by 5.9% and 5% year-on-year respectively from January to May, indicating an acceleration compared to the first quarter [1] - In May, the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4%, marking a 1.3 percentage point increase from April [1] - The service production index also saw a year-on-year growth of 6.2% in May, up by 0.2 percentage points from April [1] Policy Impact - The implementation of supportive consumption policies has significantly boosted consumer spending, with May's retail sales growth exceeding market expectations [2] - The macroeconomic policies have been described as proactive and effective, enhancing consumption vitality and driving production growth [2] - The government has a robust policy toolbox to dynamically adjust macroeconomic policies in response to changing conditions, ensuring continued support for economic stability [2] Future Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission is focused on improving the policy toolbox for stabilizing employment and the economy, which is seen as a catalyst for economic growth and structural optimization [3] - Expectations for further monetary easing and fiscal measures to support consumption, particularly in the context of trade-in policies, are anticipated in the second half of the year [3] - There is a consensus that growth-stabilizing policies will remain strong, with an emphasis on accelerating government bond issuance and ensuring liquidity in the market [3][4]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking the first time the tool has been used twice in a month [1] - The reverse repurchase operation is aimed at enhancing liquidity management and cross-period adjustment capabilities within one year [1] - A total of 20 billion yuan in net reverse repurchase operations is expected to be implemented by June 16, following the maturity of 5 billion yuan in three-month and 7 billion yuan in six-month reverse repos [1] Group 2 - The increase in reverse repurchase operations in June follows a 1 trillion yuan reduction in reserve requirements in May, aimed at maintaining ample liquidity amid high government bond issuance and peak periods for bank interbank certificates of deposit [2] - The long-term liquidity supply exceeding 1 trillion yuan in May effectively countered the pressure from government bond net payments, which reached a record high of 910.2 billion yuan [2] - The policy signals a continued emphasis on quantity-based monetary policy tools to support credit expansion and enhance counter-cyclical adjustments [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a significant increase in liquidity operations through a buyout reverse repurchase agreement, indicating a proactive approach to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system amid high demand due to upcoming financial obligations [3][4]. Group 1: Liquidity Operations - On June 16, the PBOC will conduct a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 400 billion yuan with a six-month term, marking the second such announcement within a month [1][3]. - The PBOC has been active in reverse repurchase operations for nine consecutive months, with amounts ranging from 500 billion to 1.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in the timing of disclosures from month-end to earlier announcements [3][4]. - The liquidity demand in June is heightened due to a record 4.2 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit maturing, with significant amounts due in the first half of the month [3][4]. Group 2: Market Impact and Policy Signals - The increase in buyout reverse repurchase operations is aimed at stabilizing the banking system's liquidity during a peak period of government bond issuance and maturing interbank certificates [4]. - The PBOC's actions signal a commitment to using quantitative monetary policy tools to support credit expansion and enhance counter-cyclical adjustments [4]. - Recent data shows that overnight funding rates have stabilized around 1.4%, with the seven-day funding rate between 1.5% and 1.65%, indicating a controlled liquidity environment [5]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts expect that the liquidity fluctuations at the end of the quarter will be manageable, with the PBOC likely to continue utilizing various monetary policy tools to ensure reasonable liquidity across different maturities [5]. - The anticipated government bond issuance pressure in June is expected to be lower than in May, suggesting a balanced approach to managing liquidity and maturing monetary policy tools [5].

业内专家表示，考虑到6月全月共有1.2万亿元买断式逆回购到期，全月将实现买断式逆回购净投放。 6月初，中国人民银行公告开展1万亿元3个月期买断式逆回购操作，为保持全月总体流动性充裕营造良 好基础。此举也打破了以往月末公告当月相关操作数据的惯例，让市场吃下定心丸。 "本次买断式逆回购操作后，6月将实现5000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购净投放，以及3000亿元6个月期买 断式逆回购净回笼，共计2000亿元资金净投放。"中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，预计6月政府债发行 压力或低于5月，但考虑到既要对冲政府债发行压力，又要兼顾货币工具到期续作，预计6月中期借贷便 利（MLF）也可能延续净投放。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青也表示，在5月人民银行降准释放约10000亿元长期流动性基础上，6月买 断式逆回购加量，继续加大中期流动性投放，一方面有助于在政府债券持续大规模发行以及近月银行同 业存单到期规模处于"高峰期"阶段，保持银行体系流动性持续处于充裕状态，控制资金面波动；另一方 面，这也释放了数量型货币政策工具持续加力的政策信号，有助于推动宽信用进程，强化逆周期调节。 最后，买断式逆回购操作从月末披露到提前发布，显示货币政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a buyback reverse repurchase operation of 400 billion yuan to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, indicating a proactive approach to monetary policy amid significant government bond issuance and high maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On June 16, the PBOC will conduct a buyback reverse repurchase operation of 400 billion yuan with a six-month term [1] - In June, the PBOC has already announced two buyback reverse repurchase operations totaling 10,000 billion yuan for three months and 4,000 billion yuan for six months, with additional maturities of 5,000 billion yuan and 7,000 billion yuan respectively [1] - This results in a net injection of 200 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations by June 16 [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The increase in reverse repurchase operations is aimed at ensuring liquidity in the banking system during a peak period of interbank certificate maturities and large-scale government bond issuance [1] - The actions signal a commitment to using quantitative monetary policy tools to support credit expansion and enhance counter-cyclical adjustments [1] - The transparency of monetary policy operations has improved, which is expected to better guide and stabilize market expectations [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on June 16, with a term of 6 months, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - Earlier in June, the PBOC announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation for 3 months, establishing a solid foundation for overall liquidity throughout the month [1] - By June 16, the PBOC will implement a net injection of 200 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, considering the maturity of 5 trillion yuan in 3-month and 7 trillion yuan in 6-month reverse repos [1] Group 2 - Experts indicate that June is a critical period for liquidity assessment, with high demand for liquidity from financial institutions due to the large-scale maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [2] - The PBOC is expected to continue using various liquidity management tools, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), to ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system [2] - This approach is crucial for increasing the availability of credit to enterprises and households, as well as reducing financing costs for the real economy [2]