（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，9月29日纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.26%报97.94，非美货币多数上涨，欧元兑美元涨0.24%报 1.1728，英镑兑美元涨0.24%报1.3432，澳元兑美元涨0.46%报0.6577，美元兑日元跌0.60%报148.6100， 美元兑加元跌0.22%报1.3913，美元兑瑞郎跌0.07%报0.7977。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB/USD exchange rate are primarily influenced by the rebound of the US dollar index, with a general trend of "first suppressed, then rising" observed in the RMB exchange rate this year, indicating a stable long-term outlook despite short-term volatility [1][4][5]. Exchange Rate Fluctuations - On September 29, the RMB/USD central parity rate was reported at 7.1089, an increase of 63 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB experienced slight depreciation in the third week of September, with the onshore RMB closing at 7.1219 on September 24, down 86 points from the previous day [2]. - The dollar index saw a significant rise, reaching a two-week high of 98.6044, contributing to the RMB's depreciation [2]. Influencing Factors - The depreciation of the RMB is attributed to the strong performance of the US dollar, driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's comments on inflation and employment risks, which have tempered market expectations for aggressive rate cuts [2][3]. - Seasonal demand for foreign exchange, particularly for cross-border payments and personal expenses related to studying and traveling abroad, has increased the demand for USD [3]. - The RMB's strength is supported by China's economic recovery and improved prospects for technological innovation, alongside a reduction in trade tensions with the US [4][5]. Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the short-term fluctuations in the RMB will not alter its long-term stability at a reasonable equilibrium level, despite the presence of both positive and negative factors affecting the exchange rate [4][5]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to enhance market resilience and stabilize expectations to prevent excessive fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate against the USD are primarily driven by a temporary rebound in the USD index, with a general trend of appreciation observed throughout the year, despite short-term volatility [3][4][7]. Exchange Rate Trends - As of September 29, the RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.1089, an increase of 63 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. - In the third week of September, the RMB showed slight depreciation, closing at 7.1219 against the USD on September 24, down 86 points from the previous day [4]. - The RMB's depreciation is attributed to a significant rise in the USD index, which reached a two-week high of 98.6044 on September 25 [4]. Influencing Factors - The current "strong dollar, weak RMB" scenario is a result of multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts and seasonal demand for USD due to upcoming holidays and corporate needs [5][6]. - The RMB's appreciation earlier in the year was supported by favorable internal and external factors, with experts predicting that short-term fluctuations will not alter the RMB's long-term stability at a reasonable equilibrium level [7][8]. Economic Context - The depreciation of the USD by 10% over the first nine months of the year reflects a significant decline in its credibility, influenced by various economic pressures [7]. - China's economic recovery and improved prospects for technological innovation have contributed to a reassessment of Chinese assets, further supporting the RMB [8]. - The People's Bank of China has emphasized the need to maintain the RMB's stability in the foreign exchange market, aiming to prevent excessive fluctuations [8].

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a historic high of $3,800 per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of 45% this year, the largest annual gain since 1979 [1] - The upcoming National Day holiday in China is expected to boost gold consumption, prompting several jewelry brands to raise their prices [1] Gold Price Trends - The international gold price has surpassed 1,100 yuan per gram for domestic brands, with major jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang announcing price increases [3][4] - Chow Tai Fook plans to raise its "one-price" gold product prices starting in October, with potential increases of 30% to 40% for popular items [3] - Other brands, including Chow Sang Sang and Bao Lan, are also adjusting their prices, with increases ranging from 100 to 500 yuan depending on the product [4] Market Dynamics - SPDR has significantly increased its gold holdings, with a total of 1,005.72 tons as of late September, reflecting a strong inflow of capital into the gold market [5] - Bank of America reported a record inflow of $17.6 billion into the gold market over the past four weeks, indicating heightened investor interest [5][6] Future Outlook - Analysts from Deutsche Bank have raised their gold price forecast for 2026 to $4,000 per ounce, while Barclays suggests that gold is not overvalued compared to the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [8] - The decline of the dollar by 9.7% since the beginning of 2025 has contributed to the rising value of gold, as concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and trade war prospects persist [8]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened, with inflation expectations declining [1][12] - Offshore dollar liquidity tightened overall, while the domestic interbank funding situation remained balanced [1][17] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with major indices' volatility also declining [2][31] - Trading heat in sectors such as electronics, automotive, consumer services, real estate, textiles, and communications remains above the 80th percentile [2][24] - The volatility of the communication sector remains above the 80th historical percentile [2][31] Institutional Research - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, communications, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverages, with mechanical, transportation, banking, and consumer services sectors seeing a month-on-month increase in research heat [3][42] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have adjusted net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026, with increases in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, consumer services, chemicals, machinery, and automotive [4][49] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 has increased [4][49] - The net profit forecasts for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 indices for 2025 and 2026 have been raised, while the CSI 500 index has seen downward adjustments [4][49] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing to show net selling but at a slower pace [5][31] - In the top 10 active stocks, the ratio of buy/sell totals in sectors like electronics, electric vehicles, and automotive has increased, while it has decreased in non-bank, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous sectors [5][31] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity is approaching the highest point since July 2020, with a net purchase of 26.48 billion yuan last week [6][35] - The main net purchases in margin financing were in electronics, communications, and electric vehicle sectors, while net sales were seen in non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and non-bank sectors [6][35] Active Equity Fund Positions - Active equity funds have reduced their positions, primarily increasing allocations in media, computing, and machinery sectors while decreasing in communications, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverages [8][45] - The correlation between active equity funds and mid/small-cap growth and small-cap value has increased [8][45] - New fund establishment sizes have decreased, with active funds seeing a rebound while passive funds have declined [8][50]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate are influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, the dynamics of China-U.S. trade negotiations, and the resilience of the Chinese economy under tariff pressures [1][5]. Exchange Rate Fluctuations - As of September 29, the RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.1089, an increase of 63 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB has shown a pattern of narrow fluctuations, with the offshore RMB reaching around 7.08 in early September before dropping below 7.14 the following week [1]. - The recent depreciation of the RMB is attributed to a temporary rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which rose to a two-week high of 98.6044 on September 25 [2]. Internal and External Factors - The "strong dollar, weak RMB" trend is a result of multiple converging factors, including the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts and seasonal demand for foreign currency [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's recent comments on inflation and employment risks have tempered market expectations for significant rate cuts, providing temporary support for the dollar [2][3]. Economic Recovery and Trade Relations - The RMB's overall trend this year has been one of appreciation, driven by both internal recovery and external factors, with experts predicting that short-term fluctuations will not alter the long-term stability of the RMB [4][5]. - Positive developments in China-U.S. trade negotiations have contributed to a more stable outlook for the RMB, as the People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining the currency's stability at a reasonable equilibrium level [5].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Author: Long Aoming from Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price showed a high - level oscillation after surging. The price of New York gold rose from $3,700 to $3,800, and the corresponding main contract price of Shanghai gold futures rose from 830 yuan to 860 yuan. In the short term, the simultaneous rise of the gold price, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index was likely due to geopolitical tensions. The U.S. continuously pressuring Russia accelerated the upward movement of the gold price. Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the gold price has been on an upward trend, breaking through the oscillation range since the second quarter with an accelerating upward momentum. After a short - term correction around the Fed's interest - rate meeting on September 18, the gold price reached a new high, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. With China approaching the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, attention should be paid to overseas market fluctuations [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Trend - The report provides a graph showing the relationship between the COMEX gold futures closing price and the U.S. dollar index, but no specific textual description of the weekly trend other than the price changes of gold is given [7]. 3.1.2 Index Percentage Changes | Index | September 26 | September 19 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,789.80 | $3,719.40 | 1.89% | | COMEX Silver | $46.37 | $43.37 | 6.92% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 856.06 yuan | 830.56 yuan | 3.07% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 10,632.00 yuan | 9,971.00 yuan | 6.63% | | U.S. Dollar Index | 98.20 | 97.65 | 0.56% | | U.S. Dollar against Off - shore RMB | 7.14 | 7.12 | 0.32% | | 10 - year U.S. Treasury Real Yield | 1.82 | 1.75 | 0.07 | | S&P 500 | 6,643.70 | 6,664.36 | - 0.31% | | U.S. Crude Oil Continuous | $65.19 | $62.72 | 3.94% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 81.74 | 85.77 | - 4.70% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 80.52 | 83.30 | - 3.34% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,005.72 | 994.56 | 11.16 | | iShare Gold ETF | 478.90 | 474.47 | 4.43 | [8] 3.2 Accelerated Upward Movement of Gold Price - Last week, the gold price showed a high - level oscillation after surging. In the short term, the simultaneous rise of the gold price, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index was likely due to the intensification of geopolitical situations, which increased market risk - aversion demand. The decline of the U.S. stock market last week reduced market risk appetite, increased risk - aversion demand, and was favorable for the gold price [10][12]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to September 23 data, compared with the previous week, long positions changed by 6,030 contracts, short positions changed by 5,691 contracts, and net long positions changed by 339 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to precious - metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness. Last week, the gold ETF holdings increased significantly. Both gold and silver rose significantly last week, with silver rising sharply, and the gold - silver ratio declined rapidly. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded significantly last week, and the 10 - 2 yield spread widened. With the start of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the market's expectation for the U.S. economy improved [14][16][19] 3.4 Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the short - term and medium - to - long - term trends of the gold price and reminding of overseas market fluctuations during the holiday [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The log market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The spot price of mainstream delivery products has changed slightly, the port inventory has decreased overall, the futures market has shown narrow - range fluctuations, and the freight and exchange rate have also changed [4][6][20] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of September 21, there were 27 ships departing from New Zealand in September, with 22 bound for the Chinese mainland and 5 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea with load reduction. It is expected that about 15 ships will arrive in September and 12 in October, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.41 million cubic meters in September [5] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 19, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 20,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 600 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,600 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 700 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.1408 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 2,900 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 476,900 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 12,000 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 290,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 30,900 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 146,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 8,300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0546 million cubic meters, a decrease of 24,300 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13] 3.3 Market Trend - As of September 26, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 808.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.2% increase from the previous week. The futures market showed narrow - range fluctuations this week, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. This week, the monthly spread tended to narrow, with the 11 - 01 monthly spread at - 11.5 yuan per cubic meter, the 11 - 03 monthly spread at - 16.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 01 - 03 monthly spread at - 5 yuan per cubic meter [20] 3.4 Other - As of the week of September 21, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,266.00 points, an increase of 79 points (+2.9%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 832 points, a 2.1% increase from the previous week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,114.52 points, a 7.0% decrease from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated upwards. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.134, a 0.30% week - on - week increase, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 2.5% to 1.720 [6][61]

Core Viewpoint - The advantages of gold as a credit asset are becoming increasingly prominent against the backdrop of excessive issuance of U.S. government bonds, with gold prices nearing $3,800 per ounce, raising concerns about its future trajectory [1] Group 1: Evolution of Gold's Monetary Attributes - Historically, gold has served as a crucial support for currency circulation, providing stability and credibility to the monetary system, but its monetary attributes are gradually weakening [4][2] - The transition from a gold-backed currency system to a fiat currency system has occurred in two key phases: the classical gold standard and the Bretton Woods system, which linked currencies to gold at a fixed rate [2] - The collapse of the Bretton Woods system marked the liberation of gold prices from fixed exchange rates, leading to a floating exchange rate system and an era of credit currency [2] Group 2: Changes in Gold's Demand and Supply Dynamics - Gold's investment demand has shown strong growth, increasing from 991 tons in 2021 to 1,182 tons in 2024, with gold ETFs transitioning from negative to positive contributions [4][6] - The demand for gold jewelry and technology applications has also been significant, with gold consumption in jewelry manufacturing decreasing from 2,247 tons in 2021 to 2,012 tons in 2024, while technological demand remains stable [6] - The supply of gold has not kept pace with demand, with total demand rising from 4,026 tons in 2021 to 4,606 tons in 2024, while gold mine production only increased from 3,573 tons to 3,673 tons during the same period [7] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Gold's Safe-Haven Demand - Geopolitical tensions have heightened the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with military conflicts leading to inflationary pressures that typically drive up gold prices [11] - The inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar index and gold prices has been evident, with the dollar index declining from 108.6 in January to 98.2 in August, while gold prices rose by 23.9% during the same period [8][10] - Central banks, particularly in developing countries, have been increasing their gold reserves, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to raise their gold reserves in the next 12 months, up from 81% the previous year [13] Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The future trajectory of gold prices is primarily influenced by geopolitical developments and the sustainability of U.S. debt, with two potential scenarios: stabilization or further escalation of tensions [20][21] - If geopolitical tensions ease and U.S. debt issues are managed, gold prices may stabilize or face downward pressure, as current prices are significantly above production costs [21] - Conversely, if geopolitical conflicts intensify and U.S. debt issues worsen, gold's safe-haven attributes may become more pronounced, leading to further price increases [21]

1美元兑换149.44日元，低于前一交易日的149.89日元；1美元兑换0.7975瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的 0.8004瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3937加元，低于前一交易日的1.3943加元；1美元兑换9.4041瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.4766瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华社） 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.41%，在汇市尾市收于98.152。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1704美元，高于前一交易日的1.1653美元；1英镑兑换1.3410美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3335美元。 新华财经纽约9月26日电美元指数26日下跌。 ...