Group 1 - Global market tension has increased due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs, impacting investor sentiment [1] - Major European stock indices experienced declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.61% to 23787.45 points, France's CAC40 down 0.75% to 7696.27 points, and Italy's MIB down 0.80% to 39622.11 points [2][3] - The US stock market was closed for a public holiday, while the dollar index fell by 0.22% to 96.965, reflecting concerns over trade negotiations [2][3] Group 2 - India announced plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US due to the impact of US tariffs on Indian automotive exports [4] - Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett advised selling stocks after the S&P 500 index reached a historical high, citing risks associated with the recently passed "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill [5] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, signed by President Trump, extends tax cuts and is expected to provide a short-term economic boost but poses long-term risks of high deficits [5] Group 3 - Significant capital outflows were observed in US mid-cap stocks, totaling $5.7 billion, marking the largest outflow since July 2023 [6] - The financial sector attracted $1.6 billion in inflows, the largest since January [6] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its interest rate stance, with a probability of over 95% for no change in July and about 70% for a rate cut in September [6] Group 4 - The cryptocurrency market experienced a downturn, with Bitcoin dropping over 1% and Ethereum nearly 3% [7][8] - Approximately 90,000 liquidations occurred in the cryptocurrency market within 24 hours, amounting to $219 million, with the largest single liquidation on Binance-BTC valued at $2.72 million [9][10] Group 5 - Central banks are urged to monitor the vulnerabilities introduced by payment innovations, particularly regarding stablecoins and their potential impact on monetary trust and sovereignty [11] - The US Senate passed significant stablecoin legislation aimed at regulating dollar-pegged stablecoins, addressing concerns over their rapid rise and potential risks to financial stability [11][12]

Core Points - India has announced retaliatory tariffs against the United States, amounting to $725 million, in response to U.S. tariffs on automobiles and auto parts [1][3] - The U.S. tariffs, which are 25%, are expected to impact Indian exports valued at $2.89 billion [1][3] - India has reserved the right to suspend concessions or other obligations due to the adverse effects of U.S. measures on its trade [1][4] Summary by Sections Retaliatory Tariffs - India plans to impose tariffs equivalent to the total amount of U.S. tariffs, which is $725 million [1][4] - The notification to the WTO indicates that India will suspend its obligations under the Safeguards Agreement [3][4] - The U.S. tariffs on imported passenger cars and light trucks, effective since May 3, 2025, are considered safeguards by India [3][5] Trade Negotiations - The deadline for U.S.-India trade negotiations is approaching, with a 90-day pause on tariffs ending on July 9 [6] - Key points of contention include India's reluctance to open its agricultural and dairy markets [6][7] - The agricultural sector constitutes 16% of India's $3.9 trillion economy, making it a sensitive area for negotiations [6] Market Access - The U.S. is urging India to allow imports of various products, including dairy, poultry, and grains, while India remains cautious about opening its markets [7] - India is willing to provide greater market access for certain products like dried fruits and apples but is hesitant regarding corn, soybeans, wheat, and dairy [7]

据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间3日表示，将于4日开始向贸易伙伴发函，设定单边 关税税率，并称各国将从8月1日起开始支付新的关税。 今年4月初，特朗普政府推出了所谓的对等关税，对几乎所有贸易伙伴加征关税，具体税率依 据各国对美逆差而不等。 由于对等关税引发金融市场巨震，特朗普不得不采取缓和措施，将各国对等关税税率全部临时 下调至10%，期限为90天。美国在此期间和各国进行贸易谈判。 特朗普设定的贸易谈判最后期限为7月9日（下周三），他本周二表示，不考虑延长关税宽限 期。 特朗普周四对记者表示，大约"10到12封"通知函将在周五发出，接下来的几天还会陆续发出更 多。 "到9号就会全部发出，"特朗普说。"这些关税将从10%、20%到60%、70%不等。" 特朗普还称，新的关税将于8月1日生效。他说： "8月1日起，美国就将开始收到关税收入。" 据估算，如果7月9日美国将所有"对等关税"提高至威胁中的水平，美国进口商品的平均关税将 从特朗普上任前的约3%跃升至约20%，这将进一步加大美国经济面临的通胀与增长压力。 目前为止，特朗普政府已宣布与英国和越南达成协议。 在周四被问及是否还有更多协议时，特朗普表示：" ...

【环球时报驻美国、日本特约记者 萧达 潘小多 环球时报记者 李迅典 韩雯】美国总统特朗普表示，美 政府7月4日起将向尚未与美方达成关税协议的国家发出通知，告知这些国家将被征收的新税率。他称， 新税率将介于10%至70%之间，从8月1日起实施。这一消息立即在全球市场引发警惕。彭博社称，如果 实施，这将比特朗普4月2日宣布的所谓"对等关税"税率（最高为50%）更高，增加美国经济的通胀风 险。美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）称，50%的关税在4月曾导致美国股市陷入熊市区域，美国债券和美 元被大幅抛售，70%的关税将更超这一水平。美国股市和债券市场4日因独立日休市。日本学者分析 称，70%的税率将使对美出口变得几乎不可能，并抹去日本对美国的所有贸易顺差。7月9日是美国暂缓 执行所谓"对等关税"的最后期限。日本前首相鸠山由纪夫3日表示，"日本有一句俗语，哭闹的小孩谁也 对付不了"，用逻辑或者经济理论说服美国政府放弃关税措施是徒劳的。他认为，日本、澳大利亚、韩 国和美国其他盟友将不得不接受美国政策不可逆转的变化，并增强自身对美国的独立性。 和美国达成协议，或者未争取到进一步的豁免期限，韩国所适用的关税税率可能会再提高15个百 ...

Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The US and EU trade negotiations are at a standstill, with a deadline for a "tariff pause" approaching on July 9 [1][2] - EU representatives are seeking a principle-based agreement before the deadline, while also preparing for potential extensions of the tariff pause if no agreement is reached [2][8] - There are internal divisions within the EU regarding the approach to negotiations, with some countries favoring a quick agreement and others advocating for a stronger stance against US tariffs [1][9] Group 2: Automotive Industry Impact - European automotive manufacturers are facing pressure, with stock prices declining significantly amid tariff threats, including a 17% potential tariff on EU agricultural products and a 50% tariff on other goods if negotiations fail [4][8] - Some European governments and car manufacturers are pushing for an investment-based agreement with the US, where increased investment in the US could lead to tariff reductions [2][3] - The EU's second round of countermeasures against US tariffs has been scaled down from €950 billion to €720 billion, indicating a strategic adjustment in response to ongoing negotiations [10] Group 3: Economic Implications - The EU is prepared to take countermeasures to protect its economy if negotiations do not yield favorable results, with the EU Commission President stating that all options are on the table [10] - The potential for a principle-based agreement could maintain the current "truce" status, avoiding new US tariffs, while failure to reach an agreement could lead to the implementation of previously suspended tariffs [10]

Group 1 - India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US due to the impact of US tariffs on Indian automotive exports [1] - The EU is prepared to reach a principle agreement with the US on tariffs before the July 9 deadline, but will take countermeasures if negotiations fail [3] - Japan and the US trade negotiations are at a standstill, with key issues being automotive and agricultural tariffs [3] Group 2 - India and the US are in discussions regarding tariffs, but remain divided on agricultural and dairy products, which India considers "red lines" [4] - India's Finance Minister has emphasized the importance of protecting domestic farmers' interests in trade negotiations with the US [4] - The EU's readiness to defend its economic interests indicates a potential escalation in trade tensions if agreements are not reached [3]

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Strategies - The U.S. is using "reciprocal tariffs" as a negotiation tool to encourage trade partners to increase purchases of American goods and enhance supply chain security[2] - Countries like India, Pakistan, and Switzerland are likely to reach trade agreements with the U.S., while the EU, Japan, and South Korea are still in negotiations[2][21] - The U.S. has clarified its demands in trade negotiations, which will be crucial for reaching agreements by the July 9 deadline[4] Group 2: Trade Deficits and Tariff Rates - The trade deficit with China stands at $295.40 billion, with a proposed reciprocal tariff rate of 34%[5] - The EU has a trade deficit of $235.57 billion, with a proposed tariff rate of 20%[5] - India has a trade deficit of $45.66 billion, with a proposed tariff rate of 26%[24] Group 3: Economic Objectives - The U.S. aims to reduce its trade deficit primarily by increasing exports of energy and agricultural products, which account for about 28% of total exports[8] - The Trump administration seeks to reduce overseas spending and has linked trade policies to military spending commitments from NATO allies[12][13] - Strengthening domestic manufacturing and supply chain resilience is a key goal, especially in critical sectors like semiconductors and medical supplies[16] Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - The uncertainty surrounding "reciprocal tariffs" may decrease, but the Trump administration retains tools like Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs, indicating ongoing trade policy uncertainty[2][30] - Non-U.S. countries are showing a willingness to compromise to reach trade agreements, while those failing to negotiate may face higher tariffs[30]

中国银河证券|CGS 全景东盟双周报（2025 年第 5 期） : "黄金签证"助力制度型开放实践 首席经济学家：章俊 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 "黄金签证"助力制度型开放实践 2025年7月4日 核心观点 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 ☎：010-8092 8096 网: zhangjun_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070003 研究助理 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 全景东盟双周报 刘小逸 网: liuxiaoyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 田冀霖 网: tianjilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 风险提示 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 随着美国"对等关税"90天暂缓期进入最后倒计时(7月9日),东南亚地区 ● 超 30%的平均加征税率生效在即。区域内国家正采取"多线并进"的应对方 案:在贸易端加速"窗口期"出口冲刺,马来西亚单月对美出口额增长超四成; 在外交层面稳步推进对华经贸合作并密集开展对美游说与协商,争取在暂缓 期内签订关税协议,其中,越 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trade agreements between the United States and Vietnam, highlighting the differences in negotiation outcomes with Japan and the implications for U.S. trade policy under Trump [3][4][6]. Group 1: U.S.-Vietnam Trade Agreement - The U.S. has agreed to reduce tariffs on Vietnamese products from 46% to 20%, while imposing a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam to the U.S. Vietnam will maintain zero tariffs on U.S. goods [3][4]. - The agreement reflects a broader strategy by the U.S. to maintain a competitive tariff differential with other countries, with a minimum differential of 8.2% and a maximum of 20% [6][15]. Group 2: U.S.-Japan Trade Negotiations - Japan's negotiations with the U.S. have stalled, with Japan insisting on comprehensive exemptions from tariffs, while the U.S. focuses on specific tariff rates [11][16]. - The U.S. has threatened to impose tariffs as high as 35% on Japanese goods, indicating a tougher stance compared to the agreement with Vietnam [10][24]. - Japan's position as a major investor in the U.S. has not translated into favorable trade terms, as the U.S. perceives Japan as a "spoiled ally" [11][24]. Group 3: Broader Implications for Trade Policy - The article suggests that the U.S. may adopt a phased approach to tariff negotiations, granting exemptions to countries making progress while applying pressure to those lagging behind [21]. - The potential for a trade agreement with India is highlighted, with India facing a 26% tariff and seeking a similar arrangement as Vietnam [18][19]. - The article notes that the U.S. is likely to be more flexible in negotiations with non-allied countries compared to traditional allies like Japan [17][21].

Employment Data - In June 2025, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the forecast of 106,000 and a revised previous value of 144,000[5] - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%[5] - The private sector employment growth was below expectations, while government employment saw a significant increase of 66,000 jobs, primarily in state education positions[6] Wage Growth and Inflation - The month-over-month wage growth for the private sector decreased to 0.2%, below expectations, with a year-over-year growth of 3.7%[6] - Wage growth in the goods-producing sector fell to 0.1%, while the service sector also saw a decline in wage growth, indicating a cooling of core service inflation pressures[6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The resilience in employment data suggests that the Federal Reserve has ample room to maintain its current policy stance, with a high probability of no rate change in July[6] - Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted, with the probability of no rate cut in July rising from 76.2% to 95.3% following the employment data release[6] - The upcoming expiration of the "equivalent tariffs" pause and its economic impact will be crucial for future monetary policy decisions[6] Risks - There is a potential risk of inflation exceeding expectations, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process[29]