尤众元 九方智投旗下九方金融研究所资深宏观研究员 康健 九方智投旗下九方金融研究所金融研究员 2025年5月12日,中美共同发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》,双方承诺将于2025年5月14日前互相取 消91%的关税,并互相暂停24%的关税90天。美国对华平均关税税率将变为约40%,主要包括特朗普上台前 的加权平均关税税率约10%、芬太尼关税20%和对等关税10%。中国进行对等操作,将对美目前平均关税 税率调整为约30%,包括特朗普上台前的加权平均关税税率15%左右、芬太尼反制关税5%左右和对等反 制关税10%。此外,中国暂停或取消自4月2日起针对美国的非关税反制措施,包括对美出口管制的钐、 钆、铽、镝、镥、钪、钇等7类中重稀土和对部分美国企业的制裁等。同时,中美将建立经贸磋商机制,就 经贸领域各自关切事项保持密切沟通,并开展进一步磋商。 中美双方在综合考虑产业、经济、政治等多方面因素的基础上,达成了重要共识,并发表联合声明。这一 成果源于多重因素:产业层面,美国本土产业链重构受阻,高关税导致供应链断裂,拖累GDP近5个百分点;中 国通过"内循环"与"市场多元化"降低对美依赖,2025年1-4月对东盟出口增1 ...

今日（5月14日）12时01分起，我国对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税调整措施开始实施。 有关事项如下： 一、调整《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税的公告》（税委会公告2025年第4号）规定的加征关税税率，由34%调整为10%，在 90天内暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率。 二、停止实施《国务院关税税则委员会关于调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施的公告》（税委会公告2025年第5号）和《国务院关税税则委员会关于 调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施的公告》（税委会公告2025年第6号）规定的加征关税措施。 一图看懂中美关税如何变化 当地时间5月12日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布，双方大幅降低双边关税水平，这一举措符合两国生产者和消费者的期待，也符合两国利益和世界共同 利益。关税是如何变化的，一图看懂。 | 图层市 | | | --- | --- | | 中美关税时间线 | | | 北京时间 5月12日 | | | 中美联合声明 | | | 美方取消了共91%的 中方相应取消了91% | | | 加征关税; | 的反制关税 | | 美方暂停实施24%的 | 中方相应暂停实施24% ...

一、调整《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税的公告》（税委会公告2025年 第4号）规定的加征关税税率， 由34%调整为10%，在90天内暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率。 今日（5月14日）12时01分起，我国对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税调整措施开始实施。 有关事项如 下： 二、停止实施 《国务院关税税则委员会关于调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施的公告》 （税 委会公告2025年第5号）和 《国务院关税税则委员会关于调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施的 公告》 （税委会公告2025年第6号）规定的加征关税措施。 一图看懂中美关税如何变化 商务部新闻发言人表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了 共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应 暂停实施24%的反制关税。这一举措符合两国生产者和消费者的期待，也符合两国利益和世界共同利 益。希望美方以这次会谈为基础，与中方继续相向而行，彻底纠正单边加税的错误做法，不断加强互利 合作，维护中美经贸关系健康、稳定、可持续发展，共同为世界经济注入更多确 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the substantial progress made in the high-level economic talks between China and the U.S., highlighting the potential for China to seize opportunities in the global economic landscape amidst ongoing trade disputes and structural changes in the economy [1][2]. Economic Resilience - The ongoing trade negotiations between China and the U.S. are moving towards a more controllable state, which may alleviate the current trade standstill and positively impact GDP growth in the upcoming quarters [3]. - China has established a robust social and economic foundation to withstand external shocks, with significant room for policy stimulus to stabilize economic growth [4]. - The long-standing advantages of China's industrial chain clusters are expected to help maintain economic stability despite trade tensions [5]. Policy Collaboration and Domestic Demand - There is a need for China to enhance fiscal measures to boost domestic demand, as monetary policy alone may not suffice [6]. - Suggested measures include increasing fiscal deficits, reforming state-owned enterprises to support social security systems, and shifting fiscal spending from infrastructure to social welfare [7][8]. Strategic Opportunities - China aims to enhance the attractiveness of its assets and market competitiveness by implementing the "2030 Major Strategy," which includes increasing domestic demand by 30% and achieving zero tariffs, zero entry restrictions, and zero subsidy limitations for countries outside the U.S. by 2030 [9][10][13]. - The growth in domestic demand is projected to fill the global demand gap created by U.S. trade protectionism, thereby enhancing China's role in global trade and geopolitical stability [12]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes that despite uncertainties in the U.S. economy and its tariff policies, China's proactive measures and potential reforms could position it favorably in the global economic landscape, making it crucial for China to capitalize on this strategic opportunity [14].

简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 宏观方面，国内降息降准等一揽子金融政策落地，叠加中美经贸高层会 谈关税协商取得一定成果，政策面释放积极信号，基本面来看，本年度 国内商业库存去库加速，消费量维持高位或导致本年度后期供需偏紧， 短期棉价受多方利好背景下，短中期棉价维持震荡偏强运行。巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，2024 年巴西棉总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉有一定压力。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束， 并未出现异常天气，今年新疆丰产概率增大，以及国内一二季度抢出口， 消费前置，远期合约有压力。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国 天气值得关注，6 月美国 6.5 万亿美元国债到期，中美贸易谈判显得尤 为重要，若向好的形势发展，美国通胀缓和、国内通缩也得到缓和，美 联储降息概率上升，更加有利于经济发展，所以未来还是要看宏观形势 的发展，逐步认证，从整体上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份， 国内短中期棉花商业库存偏紧有结构性矛盾，短中期看涨，但远期丰产， 限制了棉花上涨的幅度。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：震荡偏强 现货方面：PTA 现货价格+ ...

今天凌晨，她和美国客户约好这两天收到30%的定金后，工厂就会开始生产他们的订单。 中新社义乌5月13日电(柴燕菲董易鑫)"'联合声明'一出，美国客商立马联系我们收定金、恢复之前的订 单，快速生产出货。"5月13日，浙江义乌主营眼镜的商户陈海红告诉记者，她与美国客户反复沟通产品 细节，直到凌晨2点多。 陈海红所说的"联合声明"，指的是5月12日中美双方公布的中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，内容提及美 方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中 方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。 义乌被称为"全球最大的小商品集散中心"，超210万种商品发往全球230多个国家和地区，常驻外商超2 万人。今年4月，在美国滥施关税的背景之下，"卖全球"的义乌成为焦点城市。 "我们有50%的订单来自欧美地区，前段时间涉美订单量几乎降到0%。"做了19年外贸生意的陈海红坦 言，确实受到影响，但是信心比黄金贵，她当时就相信转机很快会出现。 "美国市场对中国商品有依存度，从我们这些年不断增长的订单量就能看出来。这次，和我们合作了很 多年的美国客商还说'风浪都是一时的，一起经历了这些变化，反而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in tariffs on U.S. imports by China, following high-level economic talks between the two nations, indicating a significant step towards reducing trade tensions and fostering cooperation [2][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The Chinese government announced a reduction of the tariff rate on U.S. imports from 34% to 10%, with a temporary suspension of a 24% tariff for 90 days starting from May 14, 2025 [2]. - The U.S. government has committed to canceling a total of 91% of the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, while also modifying the 34% "reciprocal tariff" by suspending 24% for 90 days and retaining 10% [3][4]. Group 2: High-Level Economic Talks - High-level economic talks were held in Geneva, where both sides engaged in constructive dialogue, leading to a joint statement that emphasizes the importance of sustainable and mutually beneficial bilateral trade relations [3][4]. - The talks resulted in a consensus to establish a mechanism for ongoing economic consultations, with representatives from both countries committed to maintaining close communication on trade issues [4]. Group 3: Implications for Bilateral Relations - The reduction of tariffs is seen as a positive development for producers and consumers in both countries, aligning with their interests and contributing to global economic stability [4]. - The article expresses hope that the U.S. will continue to engage positively with China to correct previous unilateral tariff increases and enhance cooperative efforts [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to increased imports from India and relatively high short - term inventory, but the supply is likely to tighten in the long run. The rapeseed meal futures price is oscillating downward, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply relaxation but high long - term uncertainty. The price is in a range - bound oscillation, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil futures (active contract) closed at 9374 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; rapeseed meal futures (active contract) closed at 2487 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan. ICE rapeseed futures (active) closed at 707.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4 Canadian dollars; rapeseed futures (active contract) closed at 5328 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (9 - 1) was 206 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (9 - 1) was 192 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil was 305,440 lots, up 12,513 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal was 637,424 lots, up 60,942 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil was 34,744 lots, up 8,830 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal was - 50,162 lots, down 12,921 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil was 0, down 1,707; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal was 0, down 31,218 [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9380 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2420 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9377.5 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5145.76 yuan/ton, down 49.96 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 2 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was - 67 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8670 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1140 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 780 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total rapeseed import quantity in the current month was 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons; the import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import quantity of rapeseed meal in the current month was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机率: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 30 million tons, unchanged; the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed was 42.51%, up 17.06 percentage points [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: The imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 32 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 16.05 million tons, up 2 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 3.6 million tons, up 2.15 million tons; East China rapeseed oil inventory was 64.9 million tons, down 0.64 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 45.42 million tons, down 0.17 million tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 8 million tons, up 1.2 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 25.7 million tons, up 2.7 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil was 0.72 million tons, down 3.11 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal was 5.01 million tons, down 0.34 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Social consumption: The monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 4235 billion yuan, down 1314 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.95%, up 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 22.95%, up 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 22.17%, up 0.59 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 27.56%, up 0.31 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was down 0.07 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14.47%, down 0.21 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 16.77%, down 0.31 percentage points [2]. Industry News - ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed mixed on Monday, with the benchmark contract down 0.21% due to heavy technical resistance. The 7 - month contract fell 1.5 Canadian dollars to 710.60 Canadian dollars/ton; the 11 - month contract rose 6.2 Canadian dollars to 676.80 Canadian dollars/ton; the 1 - month contract rose 6 Canadian dollars to 684.00 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - South American rapeseed production is gradually being realized, putting continuous pressure on international soybean prices. However, the USDA expects the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season to be 295 million bushels, significantly lower than market expectations, which is bullish for the market [2]. Key Points to Watch - The EPA administrator said that the RVO will be announced within two weeks, and attention should be paid to the demand for US soybean oil for biodiesel [2]. - In China, the import volume of rapeseed in the first quarter decreased, reducing the pressure on the rapeseed oil supply side. After the tariff increase, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed oil has increased significantly, limiting future import volumes [2]. - Monitor the rapeseed开机率 and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions on Monday of MyAgriNet, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,079.00 | -3↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2151176 | -29285↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -10906 | -7552↓ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -23 | -2↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 148997 | -19706↓ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 136 | -2↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,210.00 | +10↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,292 | +10↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,410.00 | +20↑ 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,210. ...

中美经贸高层会谈10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行。12日，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。 来自美国多个行业的人士对此表示欢迎。他们认为，这表明世界上最大的两个经济体正通过平等对话协 商解决分歧、寻求互利共赢，符合两国最佳利益。 ...