美东时间4月2日下午，美国总统特朗普正式宣布酝酿已久的关税新政，核心内容包括对所有国家征收10% 的"基准关税"，以及对部分贸易伙伴征收更高的"个性化对等关税"，即任何一个国家对美国征收多少关 税，美国将以同等力度回敬。 全球股市遭抛售 新政一出，全球资本市场迅速反应，美股首当其冲。4月3日（周四）S&P 500大跌4.84%，创下自2020年 6月11日以来单日最差表现，随后在4月4日（周五）又下跌5.97%，是自2020年3月16日新冠疫情以来表 现最差的交易日。该指数两日跌幅达到10%。 高盛顶级交易员John Flood在周日的客户简报中表示，近期市场可能尚未见底，全球关税升级对GDP增 长、企业盈利和通胀的负面影响刚刚开始显现，市场波动性将持续，指数层面上可能尚未见到近期/中期 低点。不过他表示，高盛数据显示，当市场情绪降至目前极低水平时，未来两周S&P 500有70%概率实现 正回报。 亚太市场也未能幸免。清明节假期过后，恒生指数周一收报19828点，全日跌3021点，跌幅13.2%，创下 自1997年10月28日以来的单日跌幅纪录。而上证指数当日在有"国家队"的支持下，仍收跌7.34%，失守 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the new tariff policy announced by President Trump, which includes a 10% baseline tariff on all countries and higher personalized tariffs on specific trade partners, aiming to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and reshape the global economic order [1][3]. Tariff Policy Details - The new tariff policy includes a 10% baseline tariff effective from April 5, 2023, and personalized tariffs that will take effect on April 9, 2023. Countries like China will face a 34% tariff, while others such as the EU, Vietnam, and Japan will see tariffs ranging from 20% to 49% [1][3]. - The policy is expected to have far-reaching effects on global trade, potentially increasing inflation and slowing economic growth in the U.S. [3]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, global markets reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 dropping 4.84% on April 3 and an additional 5.97% on April 4, marking a total decline of 10% over two days [4]. - The Hang Seng Index fell by 13.2%, marking its largest single-day drop since October 1997, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 7.34% [5]. Economic Outlook - The risk of a U.S. economic recession has increased, with Goldman Sachs raising the probability of recession within the next 12 months from 35% to 45% and predicting a GDP growth of only 0.5% by Q4 2025 [6]. - Morgan Stanley is even more pessimistic, estimating a 60% chance of recession starting in June 2023 [6]. Expert Opinions - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers criticized the tariff policy as potentially the "largest suicidal policy in U.S. history," highlighting the increased uncertainty and risk of recession [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the impact of Trump's tariff suspension announcement on various sectors including energy, precious metals, and stock indices. It suggests short - term trends and future concerns for each sector, with a focus on how the tariff policy, market sentiment, and economic fundamentals interact to influence prices and investment opportunities [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory I.当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The US government will suspend the collection of reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries for 90 days, with a minimum tariff rate of 10% [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Central Peripheral Work Conference emphasized building a community with a shared future with neighboring countries through strategic trust, development integration, stability maintenance, and increased exchanges [7]. - **Industry News**: In March, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.94 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.4% and a month - on - month increase of 40.2%. New energy passenger vehicle retail sales were 991,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 45% [8]. II.外盘每日收益情况 - Various international market indices and commodities showed different trends. For example, the S&P 500 rose 9.52%, the European STOXX 50 fell 3.80%, and ICE Brent crude oil rose 6.65% [8]. III.主要品种早盘评论 1) Financial - **Stock Indices**: Trump's 90 - day tariff suspension on non - retaliatory countries led to a surge in US stocks and A50 futures. Chinese stock indices rebounded strongly, with policies from multiple departments boosting market confidence. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year active bond falling to 1.65%. It is recommended to go long while controlling risks, considering factors like the US tariff suspension and China's economic policies [12]. 2) Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's tariff suspension led to a late - session rebound in international oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to decline, but attention should be paid to the impact on US sanctions [2][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose at night. The short - term trend is bullish, considering factors such as production load and inventory [14]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber continued to decline. The long - term trend is expected to be weak, affected by factors like tariffs and supply - demand [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed a weak and volatile trend. The short - term market will be affected by shocks, and attention should be paid to cost and demand [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures showed a bottom - hitting and rebounding trend. The future trend depends on domestic demand [17]. - **PTA**: PTA prices are expected to remain weak due to insufficient cost support and demand [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to factors like inventory and demand [19]. 3) Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver rebounded. Gold is expected to remain strong, with future trends depending on multiple factors [3][20]. - **Copper**: The price of copper may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by factors such as tariffs and demand [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may also have wide - range short - term fluctuations, with attention on tariffs and other factors [22]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices may be weak and volatile in the short term, considering supply and demand [23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices may fluctuate in the short term, affected by multiple factors [24]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In March, there was an oversupply of lithium carbonate. The price may decline further if production expectations are not revised [25][26]. 4) Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The impact of tariffs on iron ore is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile, with attention on steel mill复产 progress [27]. - **Steel**: The impact of tariffs on steel is not direct. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile, with attention on steel mill复产 and demand [28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The valuation of coking coal and coke may be repaired upwards, with attention on upstream inventory digestion [29]. - **Ferroalloys**: The support for ferroalloys may strengthen, with attention on steel procurement and inventory [30]. 5) Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were weak at night. The short - term trend is affected by factors such as inventory and oil prices [32]. - **Protein Meals**: The price of far - month soybean meal has support, considering factors such as trade disputes and planting area [33]. 6) Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The short - term trend of the container shipping index to Europe is expected to be weak, with attention on shipping company capacity control and price increases [34].

以下文章来源于橡树资本Oaktree Capital ，作者霍华德·马克斯 橡树资本Oaktree Capital . 橡树资本官方公众号 "如果我们执意以确定性作为行动前提，我们将会陷入无所作为的僵局。" 这是橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）在4月9日发布的备忘录中写下的一句话， 字字千钧。 这是他第三次以《无人知晓》（Nobody Knows）为题，书写对时代剧变的回应。从2008年金融危机 到2020年疫情冲击，再到今天围绕贸易、通胀与全球秩序重新洗牌的重大转折，他一如既往承认自己 无法预测未来，但他更强调，正因为"无人知晓"，我们才更必须在不确定性中做出理性的决策。 备忘录的时代背景，是特朗普政府掀起的新一轮贸易风暴。关税加码、供应链重塑、通胀与滞胀的风险 交织其中，让人不禁联想到2008年的系统性崩盘。 霍华德·马克斯并未替这场局势下定结论，而是用极其清晰的结构提出问题：这场变局的链条中，哪些 是我们可以理解的，一般认知有哪些盲点？ 他指出，哪怕某些政策意图本身合理，比如"重建制造业"、"遏制不公平贸易"，但其带来的二阶、三 阶影响却难以控制，包括全球秩序的撕裂、资本信心 ...

2025 年 4 月 10 日星期四 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 铜： | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 18 | | 镍： | | 18 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 19 | | 棕榈油： | | 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 20 | | 棉花： | | 21 | | 白糖： | | 22 | | 苹果： | | 23 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 24 | | 玉米： | | 25 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 27 | 4 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 益率处在相对低位；抛开关税影响，中国经济呈现平稳复苏态势，内需政策有发力空 间，建议保持一定的谨慎。 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.16%报 120.33 元，10 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 109.045 元，5 年 ...

关税可能导致GDP增长和投资下降。 美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利（2026年FOMC票委）：比预期更严重的经济衰退可能会引发新的 前景。 ...

JPMorgan Chase (JPM 0.91%) Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon is one of the most respected voices on Wall Street. Dimon leads the nation's largest bank by assets, and he successfully steered JPMorgan Chase through the great financial crisis without needing a bailout. The company and Wall Street analysts often refer to the company's "fortress" balance sheet, a nod to Dimon's canny risk management. Dimon is also one of the most vocal leaders in banking, and he's never been hesitant to share his thoughts on w ...

一则信号传来。 据最新消息，在收到来自业界大量负面反馈和反对声音后，特朗普政府正在考虑放宽拟对进入美国港口的中国船只 征收的"停靠费"。有消息人士称，美国政府正在考虑的调整包括推迟实施相关计划和制定新的收费结构，目的是降 低停靠美国港口的船队的总成本负担。 据世界航运理事会的数据，"停靠费"一旦实施，将很快覆盖全球约98%的船队。美国贸易代表办公室此前就"停靠 费"提案举行了听证会，超过300个贸易团体和其他利益相关方提交了反对这些费用的意见和证词。 受美国掀起的"关税风暴"影响，市场对美国通胀重燃以及经济衰退的担忧急剧升温。摩根大通基于市场的衰退指标 仪表板模型显示，聚焦小盘股的罗素2000指数目前正在为经济衰退定价，概率高达令人窒息的79%。当地时间4月8 日，华尔街对冲基金大佬、潘兴广场资本创始人比尔·阿克曼再次呼吁美国总统特朗普暂缓"对等关税"。 考虑放宽 4月9日，环球网援引路透社报道，六名消息人士透露，在收到来自业界大量负面反馈和反对声音后，美国特朗普政 府正在考虑放宽拟对进入美国港口的中国船只征收的"停靠费"。 这项名为"停靠费"的举措迅速引发全球海运界的广泛关注和强烈反对。尽管美方声称此举旨在 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that President Trump's tariff policy will initially raise inflation before slowing economic growth, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see approach throughout 2025 [1][2] - The forecast indicates that the U.S. GDP growth will nearly stagnate, with core inflation expected to rise significantly above the Fed's 2% target by the end of the year [1][2] - The Fed's key overnight lending rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, with core PCE inflation projected to increase from 2.8% in February to 3.9% by year-end [1] Group 2 - Actual GDP growth is anticipated to slow to 0.8% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026, with the Fed likely prioritizing inflation control over stimulating economic growth [2] - No interest rate cuts are expected until March 2026, with a potential reduction of the federal funds rate to a range of 2.5% to 2.75% following seven 25 basis point cuts [2] - A recession could alter this outlook, potentially leading to earlier and more significant rate cuts [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is not expected to intervene to support the stock market amid recent sell-offs, with the S&P 500 index potentially needing to drop to 4600 points to find a bottom [3] - The government is not anticipated to provide stimulus measures to counteract the impact of tariffs, as fiscal policy is seen as part of the problem [3] - The weakening of the U.S. "exceptionalism" aura may lead to capital outflows from the U.S., affecting financial markets [3]

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International oil prices dropped significantly, with the May contract of US crude falling 4.07% to $58.23 per barrel and the June contract of Brent crude falling 4.11% to $61.57 per barrel [2] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.83% at $2998.3 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.49% at $29.75 per ounce [3] - London base metals all closed lower, with LME copper down 1.45% at $8588 per ton, LME zinc down 3.51% at $2553 per ton, etc [3] - CBOT agricultural futures contracts all closed higher, with soybean futures up 0.97% at 992.5 cents per bushel, corn futures up 0.97% at 469 cents per bushel, etc [3] - Most domestic commodity futures closed lower at night. Energy - chemicals, black - series, and base metals generally declined, while some agricultural products rose and some fell. Shanghai gold and silver rose [4][50][51] 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - China firmly opposes the US threat to impose an additional 50% tariff on China and will take counter - measures if the US tariff measures are implemented [6] - The US Chamber of Commerce is considering suing the Trump administration to block new tariffs [6] - Shanghai Stock Exchange held a symposium with 10 securities firms, and the firms are optimistic about the development of China's capital market [7] Energy and Chemical Futures - The cost of transporting diesel from the Rhine to inland Europe reached the highest seasonal level since at least 2009 [11] - As of April 7, domestic asphalt social and factory inventories increased slightly [11] - Goldman Sachs expects Brent and WTI crude oil prices to decline in December 2025 and December 2026 [12][53] - Russia's oil exports declined for the second consecutive week [14] Metal Futures - Some European investors are moving gold out of the US due to concerns about US trade policies [16] - In March 2025, China's lithium carbonate production increased, and the expected production in April decreased [16] - In March, global gold ETFs had significant inflows, and the total asset management scale reached a record high [16] Black - series Futures - A silicon - iron factory in Gansu stopped production for maintenance, reducing daily output [18] - Trump signed an executive order to promote the US coal industry [18] - China's 47 - port imported iron ore inventory decreased, while Australian and Brazilian port inventories increased [20] Agricultural Futures - Indonesia will adjust the export tax on crude palm oil to relieve the burden on exporters [22][54] - As of April 6, EU's imports of soybeans and rapeseeds increased, while palm oil imports decreased compared to the same period last year [22] - As of April 8, the port inventory of soybean oil decreased [23] 3. Financial Markets Finance - The Securities Association of China organized securities companies to conduct stress tests in 2025 [25] - In 2024, the securities industry's revenue and net profit increased, and self - operating business was the largest source of income [27] - Two new science - innovation board AI ETFs applied for registration, and the number of science - innovation board ETFs increased [27] - In March, the number of private securities fund products filed reached a new high [27] - Six companies' science - innovation comprehensive index ETF linked funds were established, bringing in incremental funds [27] - Some small and medium - sized banks and private banks in China adjusted deposit and large - deposit certificate interest rates [28] Real Estate - Multiple cities are researching and preparing real - estate market stabilization policies [29] - In March, the trading volume of new and second - hand houses in first - and second - tier cities increased significantly [31] - In the first quarter, the transfer fee of residential land in 300 cities increased, and the average premium rate rose [31] Industry - The "buy - now - get - refund" service for tax - free shopping will be promoted nationwide from April 8 [33] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to accelerate the construction of a new information infrastructure standard system [33] - A new national standard for intelligent household appliances' voice interaction technology will be implemented on September 1, 2025 [34] - The scale of China's liquid - cooled server market is expected to grow rapidly from 2024 - 2029 [34] Overseas - Lawrence Summers believes that US tariff measures may lead to an economic recession and job losses [36] - Trump is promoting the US coal industry [36] - Canada will impose a 25% tariff on US cars [37] - Morgan Stanley lowered its forecast for US GDP growth in 2025 [37] - South Korea will hold early elections on June 3 and announce an additional budget plan [38] 4. International Stock Markets - Most Chinese concept stocks fell, while some rose [43] - Tariffs may cause a nearly 30% price increase for Apple's iPhone 16 Pro Max [44] - Micron Technology will charge additional fees related to tariffs from April 9 [45] - Leapmotor and Hesai Technology reached a strategic cooperation [46] - Porsche's global car deliveries decreased in Q1 2025 [47] - DHL Group will invest 2 billion euros in the life - science and healthcare logistics sector in the next five years [48] - Samsung Electronics' Q1 2025 operating profit slightly decreased, while sales increased [49] 5. Commodities - Most domestic commodity futures closed lower at night, with different trends in different sectors [4][50][51] - Shanghai plans to boost its commodity trade scale by 2027 [51] - The price of rice in Japanese supermarkets has been rising for 13 consecutive weeks [52] - US API crude oil inventory decreased last week [55] - The price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate reached a six - month low [56] - The Baltic Dry Index declined for 11 consecutive days [57] 6. Bonds - The bond market declined, and the central bank increased net investment [58] - The convertible bond index rose, with some bonds rising and some falling [59] - The Ministry of Finance will issue several types of treasury bonds [60] - Jiangsu encourages enterprises to issue innovation - related bonds with government subsidy [61] - Some bonds will be redeemed, and some companies' credit ratings were adjusted [61] 7. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined on Tuesday [62] 8. Upcoming Events - Economic data releases include South Korea's March unemployment rate, Japan's March consumer confidence index, etc [65] - Policy - related events include China's central bank's open - market operations, New Zealand's and India's central bank interest - rate decisions, etc [67]