2025年12月07日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 | 2 | | 工业硅：新疆环保消息发酵，关注实际减产 | 11 | | 多晶硅：预计下周盘面波动放大 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：现实环比走弱叠加预期充分计价，锂价上方承压 | 20 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 07 日 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：镍过剩结构性变化，预计镍价暂稳运行。精炼镍边际转向供需双弱格局，市场普遍预期 隐性补库放缓，耐腐合金需求承压，叠加镍合金端使用镍铁取代镍板的比例有所提高，但前期重心下移挤 压精炼镍利润，不少企业转向硫酸镍生产，精炼镍累库矛盾稍有所缓和，本周全球显性库存小幅微降。这 也将精炼镍过剩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry must innovate products and utilize funds to support the construction of a modern industrial system and the development of new productive forces, facilitating the efficient transformation of technological achievements into real productivity [3][5][16]. Group 1: Current Status of Technology Insurance - As of 2024, technology insurance in China is expected to provide over 90 trillion yuan in insurance coverage for technological innovation activities, with insurance companies investing over 600 billion yuan in technology enterprises [3][5][16]. - The technology insurance system has developed 30 types of products covering various stages of technology enterprises, from research and development to market expansion, although its premium scale remains relatively small compared to traditional property insurance [5][18]. Group 2: Complexity of Technology Insurance - The insurance industry faces challenges in developing technology insurance products due to the unique and complex nature of high-tech enterprises, which often lack historical data for accurate risk assessment and pricing [6][19]. - Different technology sectors, such as biomedicine and artificial intelligence, have varying risk structures, complicating the pricing and assessment of insurance products [6][19]. Group 3: Enhancing Service Capabilities - The insurance industry must improve its infrastructure to address high-risk areas by leveraging data and technology, creating a risk assessment system for technology enterprises [7][20]. - Utilizing blockchain technology can enhance the evaluation of intellectual property and provide authoritative data for insurance claims [8][21]. Group 4: Providing Comprehensive Risk Coverage - Insurance institutions should focus on the entire lifecycle of technology enterprises, offering tailored insurance products for different stages, including research, transformation, and industrialization [9][22]. - A layered and categorized insurance system is necessary to address the specific risks faced by technology enterprises at various stages of development [9][22]. Group 5: Role of Patient Capital - Insurance funds, characterized by their long-term and stable nature, can provide essential capital support for technology innovation, particularly for startups and growing enterprises [10][23]. - Establishing specialized investment funds and engaging in venture capital can help alleviate funding bottlenecks for technology enterprises [10][23]. Group 6: Development of Green Insurance - The insurance industry is encouraged to develop green insurance products to support the transition to a low-carbon economy, aligning with national goals for carbon neutrality [11][24]. - Insurance products related to environmental pollution and renewable energy should be expanded to meet the growing market demand for diverse financial products [11][24]. Group 7: Data Asset and Cybersecurity Insurance - The rise of digitalization necessitates the development of insurance products that protect against data breaches and cyber threats, ensuring the security of data transactions [12][25]. - Insurance companies should integrate risk assessment and response measures into their offerings to enhance data security for enterprises and individuals [12][25]. Group 8: Modern Industrial System and New Productive Forces - Building a modern industrial system and developing new productive forces are key tasks for achieving national goals, requiring the insurance industry to adapt its mechanisms to meet evolving demands [13][26].

Core Insights - Guan Qingyou is a prominent Chinese economist with extensive experience in macroeconomics, financial markets, and energy security, holding key positions in various financial institutions and companies [2] Group 1: Macro Economy and Policy - Guan emphasizes the need for China to reconstruct its competitive advantage through "technological innovation + institutional openness," focusing on investment value in digital economy and green energy sectors [3] - He advocates a dual-driven strategy of "supply-side reform + innovation-driven" to facilitate the transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development in China [3] - His insights on financial reforms, such as registration systems and trading optimizations, provide authoritative interpretations of how these changes empower the real economy [3] Group 2: Financial Market and Investment Strategies - Guan proposes cross-cycle asset allocation strategies that shift the focus from "capital volume determines investment" to "value creation drives purchasing power," offering practical advice for investors regarding opportunities and risks in the US and Chinese stock markets by 2025 [6] - He has developed a "local debt risk pressure testing model" that successfully warned of hidden debt crises in multiple provinces, with recommendations incorporated into national policy documents [6] Group 3: Innovation and Entrepreneurial Spirit - Guan highlights the importance of entrepreneurs as the "core" of economic dynamism, advocating for improved legal environments and property rights to unleash the vitality of micro-entities [6] - He critiques the tendency to "instrumentalize" entrepreneurs and calls for the establishment of mechanisms that allow for innovation tolerance in private enterprises [6] Group 4: Regional Economy and Market Activation - Guan analyzes regional policy dividends and industrial collaboration opportunities, providing suggestions for local governments to cultivate distinctive industrial clusters, particularly in areas like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [6] - He identifies key strategies for unlocking consumer potential in lower-tier cities, such as targeted consumption vouchers and innovations in supply chains and inclusive finance [6] Group 5: International Economic Cooperation - Guan discusses the internationalization of the Renminbi and the underlying logic for global increases in Renminbi asset holdings, offering strategies for enterprises to manage exchange rate risks [6] - He explores how technology standards in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles can serve as new leverage points for China in global governance [6]

人民财讯12月7日电，中国共产党广西壮族自治区委员会关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规 划的建议发布。其中提出，深化财税金融改革。加强财政科学管理，强化财源建设，规范政府非税收入 管理。加强财政资源和预算统筹，强化重大战略任务和基本民生财力保障。加强财政金融联动。推进财 政体制改革，完善转移支付制度，增强基层自主财力。推动地方税制结构优化，精准落实税费优惠政 策。深化零基预算改革，统一预算分配权，强化预算绩效管理，优化财政支出结构，完善国库集中收付 制度，加强财会监督。畅通货币政策传导机制。推动人工智能与金融双向赋能。建立健全与创新相适应 的科技金融体制。鼓励金融机构进行绿色金融创新。持续完善普惠金融标准化产品体系。丰富发展养老 金融产品和服务。优化融资担保体系，完善金融服务实体经济政策。积极发展股权、债券等直接融资， 培育壮大耐心资本，支持上市公司提质。推动地方法人金融机构深化改革、减量提质。推动数字人民币 稳步发展，深化跨境金融创新，扩大人民币跨境使用。 ...

近年来，我国围绕标准体系、激励约束、风险防控等出台多项政策措施，有力引领并推动绿色金融高质 量发展。绿色金融标准体系不断完善，为金融机构创新产品与服务指明方向。结构性支持工具不断优 化，显著提升了金融机构发展绿色金融的积极性，如中国人民银行创设的碳减排支持工具，支持范围从 初期的21家全国性银行扩展至多家外资银行及数十家地方性银行。监管引导不断加强，大大增强了金融 机构的风险管理意识和能力。截至今年上半年，我国绿色贷款余额约42.4万亿元，绿色债券余额超2.2万 亿元，两者规模稳居全球前列，金融对基础设施绿色升级、能源绿色低碳转型、生态保护修复和利用等 领域的支持力度持续加大。 同时也要看到，对标全面绿色转型和碳达峰碳中和等要求，我国绿色金融服务质效有待提升，实践中还 面临一些不足，存在绿色信息披露机制不健全、绿色资产定价体系不完善、绿色金融产品不丰富等问 题。当前和未来一个时期，可从顶层设计与落地实施上共同发力，进一步激发绿色金融发展潜力。 一方面，注重构建多层次、全覆盖的支持体系。加强绿色金融政策与财政政策、产业政策协同，完善转 型金融标准，支持符合国家产业政策导向的企业通过采用先进技术和设备更新实现降碳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the acceleration of building a financial powerhouse, focusing on the development of green finance, technology finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, with a strong push for green low-carbon development [1]. Group 1: Definition and Importance of Green Finance - Green finance refers to financial services that support environmental improvement, climate change response, and efficient resource utilization, particularly in areas like clean energy and green transportation [2]. - The development of green finance is crucial for the systemic transformation of the financial system to support comprehensive green transitions in the economy and society [3]. Group 2: Achievements in Green Finance Standards - Significant progress has been made in establishing a green finance standard system during the 14th Five-Year Plan, including the release of the national standard "Green Finance Terminology" and the "Green Finance Support Project Directory (2025 Edition)" [5]. - Transition finance standards have been developed for industries such as steel and agriculture, with pilot implementations in over 20 provinces [5]. Group 3: Mechanisms and Tools for Green Finance - Green finance integrates ecological factors into resource allocation, utilizing tools like green credit, green bonds, and carbon finance to support green projects [3][4]. - The establishment of a green finance standard system and mandatory environmental information disclosure are key mechanisms for quantifying and pricing environmental externalities [3]. Group 4: Regional Innovations and Practices - The establishment of green finance reform and innovation pilot zones has led to successful local practices, including the development of green finance standards and enhanced policy incentives [7][8]. - Various regions have introduced innovative green financial products, such as "marine climate loans" and "carbon reduction loans," to support traditional industries in their green transitions [9]. Group 5: International Cooperation and Standards - China actively participates in global green finance governance, establishing multilateral cooperation mechanisms and contributing to the development of international sustainable finance standards [14][15]. - The "Belt and Road" initiative incorporates green finance principles to promote sustainable development in partner countries, with significant financial support directed towards clean energy projects [15]. Group 6: Future Directions and Challenges - The future of green finance will focus on deep integration and practical implementation, with an emphasis on expanding the application of existing standards and developing innovative financial products [18]. - There is a need to enhance the transparency of environmental information and establish robust risk management frameworks to support the green transition [10][11].

本报讯(记者吴琼胡明峰)12月4日，高淳农村商业银行与南京雅润茶业有限公司签署《茶园生态资产价 值融资协议》，雅润茶业凭借茶园的空气、水源、生物多样性等"无形生态价值"，成功获得500万元贷 款，执行利率较基准利率下浮50个基点。这标志着全国首个"VEP(特定地域单元生态产品价值核 算)+ESG(环境、社会和治理)"核算及融合评价体系正式落地，高淳发出全国首张茶园生态资产权益证。 "我们以生态资产价值核算结果的30%为上限确定授信额度，既认可了生态资产的抵押价值，又充分考 虑了其波动性风险，属于绿色金融业务创新突破。"江苏农村商业银行副行长芮斌表示，将持续加大对 绿色产业的支持力度，利用物联网等技术监测生态资产状态，积极调整授信政策，强化贷后管理。 "我们长期坚持的绿色投入获得了可衡量、可兑现的市场回报，这让我们更加坚信，绿水青山就是金山 银山。"魏爱华说，这笔贷款将用于茶叶深加工厂房建设、生态茶园智能化改造、茶苗育种研发及"茶旅 融合"新业态拓展，形成生态保护与经济效益的良性循环。 "传统贷款只看厂房、设备等硬抵押物，我们多年的生态投入始终无法转化为融资优势。"雅润茶业总经 理魏爱华说。作为江苏首家茶产业链 ...

Core Viewpoint - The enhancement of China's global pricing power is crucial for its position and competitiveness in the global financial system, impacting resource allocation, rule-making, and strategic initiatives for high-quality development [1]. Group 1: Global Market Dynamics - The world is undergoing unprecedented changes, with geopolitical shifts, technological revolutions, and challenges to the multilateral trade system intertwining [3]. - Historical evidence shows that control over key assets, core technologies, and strategic resources' global pricing power translates into the ability to shape global economic rules and direct international capital flows [3]. Group 2: China's Strategic Positioning - China is committed to high-level opening-up, providing a historical opportunity to enhance its pricing power in the global market [4]. - The development goals of China's capital markets have evolved beyond traditional financing to become a barometer of economic operation and a display of institutional competitiveness [4]. Group 3: Role of Chinese Investment Banks - Chinese investment banks have transitioned from being "channel-type intermediaries" to comprehensive global financial service providers, playing a key role in enhancing global pricing power [6]. - By deeply engaging in the construction of multi-tiered capital markets, Chinese investment banks have significantly broadened direct financing channels for enterprises [6]. Group 4: Cross-Border Financing and Global Influence - Chinese investment banks are expanding their pricing influence globally through active participation in cross-border financing [7]. - The successful IPO of Ningde Times in Hong Kong, facilitated by Chinese investment banks, exemplifies their ability to attract global capital and assert pricing power [7]. Group 5: Contribution to International Standards - Chinese investment banks are transitioning from being "rule acceptors" to "contributors" and "co-builders" of international standards, particularly in green finance [8]. - They are also involved in enhancing international recognition of accounting standards and information disclosure through initiatives like "Shanghai-London Stock Connect" [8]. Group 6: Future Challenges and Strategic Actions - The competition for global pricing power is a long-term battle that requires systematic capability building and strategic determination [10]. - Chinese investment banks must leverage their unique market position to articulate the long-term development logic of the Chinese economy to global investors [12]. Group 7: Talent Development and Industry Growth - The success of strategic initiatives relies heavily on attracting high-quality, international talent with diverse backgrounds [14]. - A strong talent pool is essential for building a world-class investment banking industry in China, enhancing its long-term international competitiveness [14].

Core Viewpoint - The successful launch of the green foreign debt pilot program in Shanghai marks a significant step in enhancing cross-border green finance services and directing global funds to support local low-carbon industries [1] Group 1: Pilot Program Overview - The pilot program allows domestic non-financial enterprises to raise foreign currency funds specifically for green or low-carbon transition projects, with reduced impact on their overall cross-border financing risk-weighted balance [2] - As of November 2025, three key enterprises focusing on the "dual carbon" sector have signed green foreign debt agreements, raising over 300 million RMB for projects in distributed renewable energy, energy storage, and circular economy [1][2] Group 2: Implementation Details - The Shanghai branch of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued guidelines for the pilot program, detailing operational pathways and emphasizing support for non-financial enterprises established for over a year, excluding certain sectors like real estate and local government financing platforms [2] - The program includes incentives for cross-border financing, with a risk conversion factor of 0.5 for green foreign debt, and mandates that funds must be fully returned to China and used exclusively for designated projects [2] Group 3: Financial Institutions' Role - Several financial institutions demonstrated efficient service in the initial phase, with China Bank completing a $15 million green foreign debt registration for a smart supply chain project in one working day [3] - BNP Paribas assisted a distributed solar project in raising $29 million for acquiring photovoltaic assets, while China Construction Bank facilitated a green foreign debt registration for a renewable energy company in under half a day [3] Group 4: Future Prospects - Analysts highlight Shanghai's unique advantage in integrating policy precision, industry advancement, international collaboration, and long-term mechanisms, creating a closed-loop system for green finance [4] - The pilot program is expected to deepen the innovation of "green foreign debt + carbon finance," enhancing the efficiency of global resource allocation to the Yangtze River Delta green industry cluster [5] - The Shanghai branch of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to improve the long-term mechanism of the green foreign debt pilot and innovate cross-border investment and financing policies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "ESG and Corporate Value Growth" summit highlighted the increasing importance of ESG in enhancing corporate value among Chinese listed companies, marking a shift from policy-driven to value-driven ESG development [1][2] Group 1: ESG Development in China - Chinese listed companies recognize the significance of ESG in driving their value growth, with ESG becoming integrated into strategic governance, business processes, and risk management [1] - The transition to a systematic and institutionalized approach in ESG and carbon neutrality policies reflects China's growing role in global climate governance and sustainable development [1] Group 2: ESG Value Ranking - The "Top 50 ESG Value Ranking" was released, based on authoritative data from 2022-2024, emphasizing the core principle of "responsibility builds value, green leads the future" [2] - The selected top 50 companies exhibit strong ESG ratings, solid profitability, and market performance that outpaces major indices, often being industry leaders with notable governance and social responsibility [2] Group 3: Awards and Recognition - Seven annual awards were presented to recognize excellence in ESG, investor relations, and philanthropy, celebrating outstanding companies and individuals in these fields [4] - A white paper titled "Responsibility Drives Value: Research on ESG Ratings and Market Value of Chinese Listed Companies" was released, demonstrating the positive impact of strong ESG performance on corporate market value through various mechanisms [4] Group 4: Technological Advancements in ESG - The launch of the ESG AI platform "Bohang Xiao E" aims to address challenges in substantive issue investigation, report writing, and performance improvement using artificial intelligence, marking a new phase in ESG consulting services [4]