技术上，纽期金、银呈现突破态势，前者站上3400美元，后者逼近年内高点。 策略上，黄金配置、投机多单头寸持有为主。 消息面上，2026年票委、达拉斯联储主席洛根表示，由于劳动力市场稳定、通胀略高于目标以及前景不 明朗，美联储正在密切关注一系列数据，以判断可能需要采取何种应对措施。2025年票委、芝加哥联储 主席古尔斯比表示，在关税政策带来的不确定性消散之后，美联储可以继续降息。俄乌第二轮谈判草草 结束，双方关于止战条件分歧依然巨大。经济数据方面，美国5月ISM制造业PMI回落至48.5，预期 49.5；连续三个月萎缩。美国4月核心PCE物价指数年率2.52%，为去通胀进程启动以来最低，月率小幅 回升至0.12%，为年内次低水平。名义利率回升幅度超盈亏平衡通胀率，实际利率小幅回升对黄金压力 增强。短端美德利差开始走阔对美元支撑增强。 资金面上，金银配置资金同时增持，截至6月3日，SPDR持仓933.07吨（+2.86吨），iShares持仓 14351.82吨（+48.07吨）。金银投机资金同时流出，前者连续6日减持，CME公布5月30日数据，纽期金 总持仓40.88万手（-13818手）；纽期银总持仓14.7 ...

智通财经6月2日电，美联储的LOGAN表示，对于所面临的风险，政策处于良好的状态；关税的潜在风 险是失业率和通胀上升。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market opened higher today, showing a complex trend influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy direction, which remains a key factor [1] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%, with core inflation still above target, leading to a stronger US dollar (currently around 101.98), which pressures gold prices [1] - If the Federal Reserve officials signal a dovish stance in the future, gold prices may receive a boost [1] - Geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and military dynamics in the Yellow Sea, may drive short-term safe-haven demand for gold [3] - However, easing US-China tariffs and expectations of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could weaken market risk appetite, negatively impacting gold prices [3] - The largest gold ETF (SPDR) has shown frequent fluctuations in holdings, indicating significant market divergence [3] - Current gold prices are oscillating between $3280 and $3325, with key support at $3270 and resistance at $3325; a breakout above $3325 could lead to a rise to $3365, while a drop below $3270 may see prices fall to $3260 [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is experiencing price differentiation across different trading markets, influenced by an unclear global economic recovery outlook [4] - Geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions continue to disrupt the market, despite some countries implementing stimulus policies [4] - Industrial demand for silver is supported by its applications in photovoltaic and electronic industries, with steady growth in demand from the solar sector [4] - However, cyclical fluctuations in the electronics sector introduce uncertainty in silver demand [4] - Recent fluctuations in silver ETF holdings reflect investors' wavering confidence in the market [4] - Short-term support for silver prices is around $33 per ounce, with resistance seen at the $33.5-$33.8 per ounce range [6] - The MACD indicator shows signs of balance between bullish and bearish forces, while the RSI indicates a neutral to slightly bullish state [6] - The silver price is within an upward channel on the weekly chart, but faces resistance from previous highs, requiring strong trading volume for a breakout [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy positioning is deemed accurate, and maintaining stable policy interest rates is viewed as a positive decision [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve, represented by Daly, emphasizes the appropriateness of its current policy stance [1] - The decision to keep interest rates stable is highlighted as a proactive measure [1]

美联储可能会尽可能长时间地维持政策不变。因此，今年两次降息是合理的，这已被市场消化。 法国兴业银行美国利率策略主管Subadra Rajappa：债券市场真正关注的是所有不确定性对经济增长的影 响轨迹。 ...

美联储古尔斯比：有时联储不得不采取政治机构不愿意采取的措施。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment has improved significantly, leading to a cautious outlook on gold prices due to various economic factors and policy decisions [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - U.S. Federal Court ruling against Trump's tariff policy has reduced concerns over international trade tensions, resulting in a rise in U.S. stock index futures and a continuation of the downward trend in spot gold [3]. - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes indicate a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with a low probability of a rate cut in June (2.2%) and a higher probability in September (60%), which has made gold bulls wary [3]. - Strong consumer confidence data has bolstered views on the robustness of the U.S. economy, leading to a decrease in pessimism regarding economic conditions and a reduction in gold's safe-haven demand [3]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows gold has formed a pattern of three consecutive bearish candles, indicating a weak short-term outlook, with key support levels at 3243 and 3214 [5]. - On the four-hour chart, gold is in a downtrend, currently in the fifth wave of a decline from 3365, with immediate support levels at 3243 and 3235, and resistance levels at 3280-3290 [7].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 28 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： | 区 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance reflects its desire for clearer insights into fiscal and trade policies and economic responses before making further interest rate adjustments [3][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Cautious Approach - The Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments, recognizing the complexity and uncertainty of the current economic situation [3][6]. - Changes in fiscal policy, trade tensions, and economic data fluctuations can significantly impact interest rate decisions, prompting the Fed to wait for more data before acting [3][4]. Group 2: Market's Rate Cut Expectations - Despite the Fed's cautious stance leading traders to withdraw bets on a rate cut in June, there remains a market expectation for a rate cut before the end of September, with probabilities slightly above 50% [4][5]. - This expectation reflects market concerns about the economic outlook, anticipating that a slowdown in inflation could lead the Fed to adopt a more accommodative policy [4][5]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding inflation and economic conditions is a critical factor influencing the Fed's decision-making process [5][6]. - If inflation slows, the Fed may consider providing more support to the economy through rate cuts; conversely, if inflation remains high, the Fed might keep rates unchanged or even consider further increases [5][6]. - Economic deterioration, such as slowing growth or rising unemployment, could compel the Fed to implement rate cuts or other stimulus measures to stabilize the economy [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Defensive Observation [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short - term, expected to fluctuate upwards [1][5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Temporarily Observation, expected to fluctuate [7] - **Iron Ore**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Expected to fluctuate [1][9] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Cautious trading within a range [1][12] - **Aluminum**: Observation [1][13] - **Nickel**: Observation or shorting on rallies [1][15] - **Tin**: Trading within a range [1][17] - **Gold**: Building long positions on dips after full price corrections [1][19] - **Silver**: Trading within a range [1][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, focus on the 5000 level pressure [1][21] - **Soda Ash**: Observation, expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, temporarily focus on the 2550 level pressure [1][23] - **Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, focus on the 15300 level pressure [1][25] - **Urea**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][28] - **Methanol**: Expected to fluctuate widely, reference range 2200 - 2380 [1][29] - **Plastic**: Expected to fluctuate widely, reference range 6950 - 7350 [1][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to rebound with fluctuations [1][35] - **Apple**: Expected to fluctuate [1][35] - **PTA**: Trading within the range of 4650 - 4900 [1][36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][39] - **Eggs**: Shorting on rallies [1][40] - **Corn**: Trading within the range of 2300 - 2360, long on dips at the lower end of the range [1][41] - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term trading within the range of 2860 - 3000, long on dips after mid - June [1][43] - **Oils and Fats**: Shorting on rallies with caution [1][43] 2. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products. It analyzes the impact of multiple factors such as macro - economy, policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international trade on different futures markets. For most products, the market shows a trend of fluctuation, and the investment strategies mainly include observation, trading within a range, and short - term or long - term trading based on price levels and market trends [1][5][7]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Due to factors like domestic market rotation, weak main - line driving force, and insufficient trading volume, the stock index may fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take a defensive observation stance [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the previous negative factors reached a peak, the bond market began to recover. Although investors are still cautious, it is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short - term [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: With falling apparent demand, rising production, and slowing inventory depletion, and considering low valuation and weakening demand, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by macro - sentiment and coal price decline, although there are factors such as potential production increase of Australian mines and decreasing inventory, the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to observe [7][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both coking coal and coke face supply - demand contradictions. Coking coal is affected by production restrictions, inventory accumulation, and weak demand; coke is affected by reduced demand from steel mills and price cuts. They are expected to fluctuate [9][10][11]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Despite weakening support from fundamentals, the copper price is still expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to factors such as mine - end interference, supply - demand situation, and inventory levels. It is recommended to trade cautiously within a range [12]. - **Aluminum**: With the change in the situation of Guinea's mining licenses, the price of alumina has risen. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand may weaken. It is recommended to observe [13][14]. - **Nickel**: Although the cost is firm, there is a long - term supply surplus. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15][16]. - **Tin**: With factors such as changes in production and consumption, and the impact of tariff policies, the price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, Fed policies, and inflation data, the prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high inventory, weak demand, and the impact of tariffs, although the short - term tariff situation has improved, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to macro - news [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: In June, there may be a situation of weak supply and demand. The medium - term supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand growth is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [25]. - **Rubber**: With slow raw material supply increase in the short - term and weak downstream demand, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [26]. - **Urea**: With high supply, weak agricultural and industrial demand, and increasing inventory, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies [28]. - **Methanol**: With relatively abundant supply and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors such as macro - changes and device maintenance [29][30]. - **Plastic**: With reduced supply due to maintenance and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and other factors [31][32]. - **Soda Ash**: Although the spot price is firm, the futures price is under pressure due to insufficient expected maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to observe [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: Although the global supply - demand is still loose, due to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, the cotton price is expected to rebound with fluctuations [35]. - **Apple**: With stable market transactions and clear fruit - setting and bagging situations, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [35][36]. - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in oil prices and the weakening of supply - demand fundamentals, the price is under short - term pressure and is expected to fluctuate within a range [36][37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short - term, due to the game between supply and demand, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, due to the increase in supply, the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies at resistance levels [39]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the egg price is supported by the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, but the supply is large, and the price is under pressure. In different periods, different investment strategies are recommended [40]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the price is supported by reduced grassroots grain sources. In the long - term, although the supply - demand is tightening, the price increase is limited by substitutes. It is recommended to trade within a range and long on dips [41]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, due to factors such as sufficient supply, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, due to cost increase and weather factors, it is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to trade within a range and long on dips after mid - June [43]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate due to the game of multiple factors. In the long - term, it is expected to decline first and then rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies with caution [43][48].