美联储理事斯蒂芬・米兰于周二接受福克斯商业新闻网采访时表示，他仍主张美联储在今年大幅降息。 米兰称："我倾向于在今年全年降息略超1个百分点。" 他认为当前货币政策对于经济而言过于紧缩，尽管通胀率仍高于2%的目标，但核心物价压力已趋于缓 和。 米兰表示，通胀的基本面企稳，叠加监管负担减轻所推动的强劲经济增长，意味着美联储可以实施降 息，且不会再度引发物价上涨压力。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 美联储理事斯蒂芬・米兰于周二接受福克斯商业新闻网采访时表示，他仍主张美联储在今年大幅降息。 米兰称："我倾向于在今年全年降息略超1个百分点。" 他认为当前货币政策对于经济而言过于紧缩，尽管通胀率仍高于2%的目标，但核心物价压力已趋于缓 和。 米兰表示，通胀的基本面企稳，叠加监管负担减轻所推动的强劲经济增长，意味着美联储可以实施降 息，且不会再度引发物价上涨压力。 ...

美联储理事斯蒂芬・米兰于周二接受福克斯商业新闻网采访时表示，他仍主张美联储在今年大幅降息。 米兰称："我倾向于在今年全年降息略超 1 个百分点。" 他认为当前货币政策对于经济而言过于紧缩， 尽管通胀率仍高于 2% 的目标，但核心物价压力已趋于缓和。 米兰表示，通胀的基本面企稳，叠加监 管负担减轻所推动的强劲经济增长，意味着美联储可以实施降息，且不会再度引发物价上涨压力。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve needs to lower interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, as stated by Stephen Miran, a Trump-appointed director [1] - Miran emphasizes that potential inflation is not a concern and that there is not much strong price pressure observed in the economy, which supports his call for significant rate cuts [1] - He points out that better economic growth in the future does not require higher interest rates, indicating that the rise in long-term yields is partly due to improved growth expectations rather than increased inflation fears [1] Group 2 - Miran expresses anticipation for Kevin Warsh's performance as the next Federal Reserve Chair, following Trump's nomination of Warsh [1] - The market is speculating on a more hawkish balance sheet policy under Warsh's leadership, reflecting a shift in expectations regarding monetary policy [1]

以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 贵金属：短期贵金属巨震，但是年内仍将降息支撑贵金属价格 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4981.85美元/盎司，环比1月23日+35.60美元/盎司，涨幅为0.72%。周内 伦敦白银价格为103.19美元/盎司，环比1月23日+4.19美元/盎司，涨幅为4.23%。 数据方面，美国11月耐用品订单环比初值5.3%，前值-2.1%，预期3.8%。美国美联储FOMC利率决策(下 限)3.5%，前值3.5%，预期3.5%。美国美联储FOMC利率决策(上限)3.75%，前值3.75%，预期3.75%。美 国1月24日当周首次申请失业救济人数20.9万人，前值20万人，预期20.5万人。美国12月PPI同比3%，前 值3%，预期2.8%。 本周美联储议息会议维持联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。在本次决议中，美联储的两 位理事斯蒂芬·米兰和克里斯托弗·沃勒投出了反对票，他们倾向于降息25个基点。周五，特朗普总统宣 布将提名凯文·沃什担任下届美联储主席。沃什在美联储任职期间一贯对通胀保持警惕，经常支持更高 利率。但去年他转而呼应特朗普观点，认为利率可以大幅降低。 华鑫证券近 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - The short-term volatility in precious metals is expected, but interest rate cuts within the year will support prices [1][2] - Gold price reached $4981.85 per ounce, up $35.60 from January 23, with a 0.72% increase [1] - Silver price was $103.19 per ounce, increasing by $4.19, a rise of 4.23% [1] Group 2: Copper - LME copper closed at $13440 per ton, up $460 from January 23, marking a 3.54% increase [3] - Domestic copper inventory is decreasing, indicating potential price strength [3][4] - SHFE copper closed at 103170 yuan per ton, up 2120 yuan, a 2.10% increase [3] Group 3: Aluminum - Domestic aluminum price was 24640 yuan per ton, up 510 yuan from January 23 [4] - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 11550 tons, while domestic inventory increased by 19718 tons [4][5] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, but demand is showing signs of weakness [5] Group 4: Tin - Domestic refined tin price was 423630 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan, a decrease of 0.03% [6] - Both supply and demand are weak, with production likely to decline as the Chinese New Year approaches [6] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony prices remain supported due to tight supply conditions [7] - Domestic antimony ingot price was 160000 yuan per ton, unchanged from January 23 [7] Group 6: Investment Ratings - The gold industry is rated "recommended" due to the Fed's interest rate cut cycle [8] - The copper industry is also rated "recommended" as copper mines remain tight [9] - The aluminum industry maintains a "recommended" rating due to rigid supply [10] - Tin and antimony industries are rated "recommended" as supply tightness supports prices [10] Group 7: Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the gold sector include Zhongjin Gold (600489), Shandong Gold (600547), and others [11] - In the copper sector, recommended stocks include Zijin Mining (601899) and others [11] - Recommended stocks in the aluminum sector include Shenhuo Co. (000933) and others [11] - In the antimony sector, recommended stocks include Hunan Gold (002155) and others [11] - In the tin sector, recommended stocks include Xiyang Co. (000960) and others [11]

Core Viewpoint - International gold and silver prices experienced a significant rebound after a recent sharp decline, with gold prices briefly exceeding $4850 per ounce and silver prices surpassing $85 per ounce before retreating [1][3] Price Movements - On February 3, gold prices peaked at $4855 per ounce and silver at $85.65 per ounce, but both fell back to around $4800 and $81 per ounce, respectively, by the time of reporting [3] - The recent price drop was described as an "epic" decline, with gold falling over 20% from a historical high of $5594 to a low of $4403, and silver dropping over 40% from $121 to $71 [3] Market Analysis - The rebound in gold and silver prices is attributed to both technical corrections and fundamental support, including ongoing central bank gold purchases and strong industrial demand for silver [4] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026 remain unchanged, contributing to a downward trend in interest rates [4] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to avoid speculation, maintain rational asset allocation, and strictly control risks, including limiting investment amounts and avoiding high-leverage products [4] - It is recommended to engage in transactions through banks and reputable gold shops, and to set reasonable profit and loss thresholds [4]

2026 年 2 月 3 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1008.58 | 1008.600 | 24425 | 24832 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1163.36 | 1161.420 | 27254 | 27941 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | -154.78 | -152.820 | -2829 | -3109 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | -13.30% | -13.16% | -10.38% | -11.13% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 78938 | 178401 | 156344 | 252527 | | | | 成交量 | 2 ...

《华盛顿邮报》报道了特朗普首次在苜蓿草俱乐部发表讲话的情况。现场的听众中有不少特朗普的敌 人，其中包括摩根大通的首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（特朗普正对其银行提起诉讼）、大卫·鲁宾斯坦（曾被 特朗普免去肯尼迪表演艺术中心主席职务），以及即将卸任的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（他也正面临 特朗普政府的调查）。有参与者转述特朗普的话说：这里有这么多我讨厌的人。（不过）我还是喜欢你 们大多数人。 在这场讲话中，特朗普还讲了一些笑话，但反响却有些冷淡，现场的气氛也多次陷入沉 默。他在演讲中提到，自己可能会提前结束，因为他得去看看入侵格陵兰岛的行动，随后才笑着承认这 只是个玩笑。我们不会入侵格陵兰岛，我们会买下它。特朗普打趣道，我从来没打算让格陵兰岛成为第 51个州。我想让加拿大成为第51个州，格陵兰岛当第52个州，委内瑞拉可以是第53个。 特朗普还提到 了自己提名的下一任美联储主席凯文·沃什，他幽默地说：如果他不降息，我就把他告到裤子都不剩。 停顿片刻后，特朗普补充道，我开玩笑的。当记者事后问到这些言论时，特朗普回应说，这是吐槽，这 是喜剧之夜。不过，他也坦言自己确实希望沃什能降息。 《华盛顿邮报》指出，历任美国总统中，不少人都 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周一（2月2日）触底反弹维持震荡走势，开盘价4807.56美元/盎司，最高价4884.84美元/盎司，最低价 4402.16美元/盎司，收盘价4620.09美元/盎司。 消息面： 标普全球市场财智首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson就美国1月制造业PMI表示，工厂产出录得自2022年5月以 来最大涨幅，但销售增长持续疲软。过去三个月的调查显示，工厂生产超出销售的程度已达到2009年初全球金 融危机以来的最高水平。这种极不寻常的状况显然难以为继，除非未来几个月需求显著改善，否则生产将放 缓，并可能对就业产生连锁影响。销售和订单簿增长乏力普遍被归因于客户对高价格的抵制，而高价往往又被 指与关税有关，同时经济前景不确定性上升也在加剧这一状况。对未来一年业务增长的预期仍保持相对韧性， 企业预计需求将有所改善，部分得益于利率下调、进口竞争减弱以及更多政府支持。政治不确定性仍是拖累企 业信心的关键因素。 评论称，美国工厂活动1月实现一年以来首次增长，新订单大幅反弹，但制造业仍未完全走出困境，进口关税 推高了原材料价格，并对供应链造成压力。ISM制造业PMI上月回升至52.6，12个月来首次 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector is experiencing significant adjustments, with COMEX gold prices dropping below 4500 due to market concerns over monetary policy tightening following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair who favors a "rate cut + balance sheet reduction" approach [1] Market Dynamics - Recent price surges in gold led to profit-taking, with London gold prices nearing 5600 USD/ounce, prompting CME to raise futures margin requirements, which further pressured short-term leveraged funds [1] - The market is currently sensitive to negative news, resulting in a sharp adjustment driven by emotional and trading structure responses [1] Future Outlook - In the short term, after the release of concentrated selling pressure, there may be a rebound and recovery window due to overselling [2] - Long-term expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts remain stable, with CME FedWatch indicating a forecast of two rate cuts this year, suggesting that financial support for gold prices is intact [2] - Geopolitical tensions, including the situation in Iran, U.S. claims over Greenland, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to elevate risk and support demand for gold as a safe haven [2] - The logic supporting gold prices remains valid, driven by the "Federal Reserve rate cut cycle + increasing global uncertainty + trends of de-dollarization" [2] - Investors are encouraged to monitor investment opportunities in gold ETFs such as Guotai (518800) and gold stock ETFs (517400) [2]