地缘方面，美军持续在中东威胁伊朗，伊朗方面强硬表态；美国威胁对古巴进行石油贸易的国家加征关 税；俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫表示泽连斯基寻求的停火对俄罗斯来说是不可接受的。 美国至1月24日当周初请失业金人数20.9万人，前值21万，预期20.5万。美国11月贸易帐-568亿美元，前 值-292亿美元，预期-405亿美元。美国11月工厂订单月率2.7%，前值-1.2%，预期1.6%。美国11月批发 销售月率1.3%，前值-0.40%。数据整体偏弱。 美国国会参议院在程序性投票中未能推进已获众议院通过的政府拨款法案，美国联邦政府再次面临部 分"停摆"的危机。美国数个联邦部门的运转资金将于1月30日耗尽。美国参议院共和党领袖图恩表示距 离达成避免政府停摆的协议更近一步。根据最新协议，国土安全部将获得临时拨款。希望众议院能重返 谈判桌，帮助避免政府停摆。 芝商所上调部分黄金期货保证金比例黄金合约的新保证金比例高于此前5%水平，约为名义价值的6%。 新标准将于当地时间1月30日收盘后生效。 周五（1月30日）亚洲早盘，黄金期货短线回落，沪金主力合约日内下跌超3.00%，现报1175.34元/克， 今日沪金主力开盘1246.00 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Fixed Income**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [6][7]. - **Equity Index**: The volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [13][14]. - **Base Metals and Building Materials**: Most products are expected to show weak or volatile trends, with some opportunities for long - positions on dips, but investors should pay attention to position management [15][17][20]. - **Energy**: Crude oil and fuel oil are expected to have upward space due to geopolitical risks, and long - position opportunities should be focused on [26][27][28]. - **Chemicals**: Most chemical products are expected to show volatile trends, with some having upward potential, and investors should pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [32][46][47]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. Some are expected to be strong, some weak, and investment strategies vary accordingly [72][80][84]. 3. Summary by Categories Fixed Income - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 354 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 143.8 billion yuan. Due to the relatively low yield, economic recovery, and improved risk appetite, treasury bond futures are expected to face pressure [5][6]. Equity Index - **Stock Index Futures**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. Considering the low domestic asset valuation, economic resilience, and increased market sentiment, the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to rise [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose significantly. In 2025, global gold demand reached a record high. Given the complex trade - financial environment and central bank purchases, gold has allocation value, but recent speculation has increased, and market volatility is expected to widen [11][13]. Base Metals and Building Materials - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. In the medium - term, the price is dominated by supply - demand. With weak demand in the real estate industry and over - capacity, the price may continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The demand is at a low level, and the supply is increasing, with inventory at a high level. Technically, there are signs of stabilization, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities on dips [17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The supply of coking coal may decrease during the Spring Festival, and the demand for coke is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [20]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost is stable. The overall supply is still loose, but the short - term surplus has decreased. Investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels [22][23]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to geopolitical tensions. Speculators increased their net long positions, and the number of active oil rigs increased slightly. Geopolitical risks are expected to remain high, and there is upward space for crude oil [24][26]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly, following the trend of crude oil. The supply in Singapore is tightening, and the price is expected to continue to rise [28]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The PP and LLDPE markets showed different trends. The polyolefin market is expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation, and the price may rise in the short - term due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and production line maintenance [30][32]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The price is supported by the increase in butadiene prices and high device operation rates, but limited by weak demand. It is expected to oscillate strongly [34][35]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The supply is decreasing, and the cost is supported. The demand is expected to be stable to weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to oscillate widely [36][38]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell slightly. Although it is in the traditional off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong oscillation. In the medium - term, supply - demand may improve, but demand uncertainty should be noted [39][41]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea futures rose slightly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, driven by export demand and cost support [42][45]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - term profit are stable, the start - up rate is declining, and there is support from market sentiment and crude oil. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [46]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The processing fee is at an average level, the inventory is low, the supply is stable, and the demand is seasonally weak. It is expected to oscillate within a range [47][48]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures showed a mixed trend. The overseas device maintenance is increasing, and the cost is supported, but the domestic coal - based device start - up is rising, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [49]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a high level, the sales are improving, and the inventory is low. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate [50][51]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle chip futures rose. The production load is decreasing, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts during the Spring Festival. The export is increasing, and it is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [52]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The supply is loose, the inventory is increasing slightly, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be stable and weak before the festival [53][54]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass futures rose. The supply - demand pattern is loose, the inventory is high, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to oscillate before the festival [55]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose slightly. The supply is high, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate before the festival, but caution is needed [56][57]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The inventory is increasing, the downstream demand is weak, and there is a lack of new orders. It is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [58]. Agricultural Products - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is at a high level, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. There is support for the price, but short - term volatility may increase [59][60]. - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The global copper concentrate supply is tight, but the demand is suppressed by high prices. The inventory is increasing. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing up [61][62]. - **Aluminum**: On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell. The alumina market has an oversupply, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is inelastic. High prices suppress demand, and inventory is increasing. Caution is needed when chasing up [63][64][65]. - **Zinc**: On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. Although the price has moved up, there is a possibility of a high - level correction [66][67]. - **Lead**: On the previous trading day, lead futures fell. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [68][69]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, tin futures fell. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, but risk control is needed [69]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell. The macro environment is complex, the cost is rising, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [70]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing quickly, and the supply is relatively loose. There may be long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - cost support levels, and long - position exit opportunities for soybean oil when the price rises [71][72]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. The export is increasing, and the production is decreasing. There may be long - position opportunities after a correction [73][75]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell slightly. The import policy has changed, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is decreasing, while that of rapeseed oil is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [76][77]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell. The USDA supply - demand report is favorable, and the domestic supply is expected to be tight in the future. It is recommended to go long in batches after a correction [78][80][81]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, sugar futures showed a mixed trend. India's sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic supply is under pressure. It is advisable to go short in batches after a rebound [82][84][85]. - **Apples**: On the previous trading day, apple futures rebounded slightly. The inventory is at a low level, and the production has decreased. The price is expected to be strong in the medium - to long - term, and long - position operations can be considered after a correction [86][87][88]. - **Hogs**: On the previous trading day, hog futures fell. The supply is under pressure in the first quarter, and it is advisable to wait and see [89]. - **Eggs**: On the previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is at a high level, and it is advisable to take profit on previous long - position spreads [91]. - **Corn and Starch**: On the previous trading day, corn futures rose slightly, and starch futures were flat. The supply - demand of corn is basically balanced, and starch may follow the corn market [92][93]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is decreasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is entering the pre - festival end. The cost is rising, and the overall supply - demand is expected to be loose, but cost support is strengthening [95][96].

截至2026年1月30日，美元指数延续弱势震荡态势，1月28日大跌0.95%报96.17，创下2022年2月以来的 逾四年新低，后续小幅整理维持在96.20附近。兑主要非美货币普遍承压，美元兑人民币汇率中间价报 7.12左右，在岸与离岸市场波动幅度收窄；兑日元汇率逼近129的均衡合理区间，日元走强态势明显； 兑加元汇率跌破1.35关口，最新报1.3504，日内微涨0.12%，凸显美元整体弱势格局。开年以来，美元 指数累计下跌超2.3%，延续2025年下半年以来的下行趋势，市场对美元的看空情绪持续升温。 美联储的独立性正遭遇前所未有的冲击，成为影响美元走势的隐性风险。鲍威尔在记者会上直言，正在 审理的最高法院案件可能是"美联储113年历史上最重要的法律案件"，并公开建议继任者"与美国政治划 清界限"。近期美国政府针对美联储办公大楼翻修项目展开的刑事调查，被广泛解读为政治报复，核心 分歧之一是美联储未按白宫意愿加速降息。此外，美国总统特朗普已高调预告将尽快宣布下一任美联储 主席人选，支持降息的美联储理事沃勒获提名，市场解读为未来政策可能更贴近白宫诉求，若独立性受 损，美联储或被迫在通胀未受控的前提下过早宽松，重蹈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the global risk asset market, particularly focusing on the surge in demand for precious metals and the performance of the Huabao ETF amid geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical risks have led to a significant drop in global risk assets, prompting some investors to take profits, which has resulted in a sharp decline in gold and silver prices [1]. - Despite the market downturn, the Huabao ETF saw a net subscription of 142 million units, indicating a counter-trend investment in the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. - The demand for non-ferrous metals is supported by macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's ongoing easing policies, rising geopolitical uncertainties, and concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt and deficits [3]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to maintain a high profitability state for an extended period, driven by new demand from emerging industries such as renewable energy, AI, and aerospace [4]. - Domestic non-ferrous metal companies are valued lower compared to their international counterparts, despite having similar growth potential and core competitiveness [4]. - The industry is experiencing a significant output gap due to a long-term contraction in capital expenditures since 2011, which continues to support prices and highlight the strategic value of these metals [3]. Group 3: Performance Indicators - As of January 28, 2025, 24 out of 60 listed companies covered by the non-ferrous ETF have released earnings forecasts, with 21 companies expected to be profitable, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3]. - The Huabao ETF covers a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the overall sector's performance effectively [5].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple resource-related LOF funds have announced a collective suspension of trading due to significant price premiums and market volatility, signaling potential risks to investors [5][6]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Market Reactions - Several LOF products, including the oil LOF funds, experienced a strong performance with multiple funds hitting the daily limit up, reflecting high premium rates [1][2]. - The WTI crude oil futures reached $65.002 per barrel, marking a 2.83% increase and the highest level since September 2025, contributing to the bullish sentiment in the market [4]. Group 2: Suspension and Limit Adjustments - Starting January 30, 2026, several funds, including the Huazhong Oil Fund LOF and others, will suspend trading until 10:30 AM due to significant price deviations from net asset values [5][6]. - The Huazhong Oil Fund LOF has reduced the daily purchase limit from 100 yuan to 2 yuan, while other funds have similarly tightened their subscription limits to manage inflows [4][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment - Analysts attribute the high premiums in oil LOF funds to tight QDII quotas, low subscription limits, and a surge in investor interest driven by international oil prices and risk aversion [4]. - The overall market sentiment remains strong for commodities, supported by factors such as inflation expectations and demand recovery, indicating continued upward momentum in the short term [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical risks have led to a significant drop in global risk assets, yet there is a notable increase in investment in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in the Huabao ETF, which saw a net subscription of 142 million units despite a market downturn [1][9]. Group 1: Macro Factors - The Federal Reserve is still in a rate-cutting cycle, creating a loose monetary environment [3][11]. - Rising geopolitical uncertainties are increasing demand for safe-haven assets [3][11]. - Concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt and deficits are prompting central banks worldwide to reduce U.S. Treasury holdings and increase gold reserves, leading to a diversification of reserve systems [3][11]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Emerging industries such as renewable energy, AI, and aerospace are continuously driving demand for non-ferrous metals [3][11]. - Capital expenditures for major non-ferrous metal types peaked in 2011 and have since entered a prolonged contraction phase, resulting in a significant output gap in the industry [3][11]. - Supply constraints persist, providing price support and highlighting the strategic value and scarcity of these metals [3][11]. Group 3: Performance Outlook - As of January 28, among the 60 listed companies covered by the non-ferrous ETF, 24 have released earnings forecasts for 2025, with 21 expected to be profitable, indicating a positive outlook for nearly 90% of the companies [3][11]. - The high profitability of the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to continue for an extended period, with the sector gradually gaining growth attributes and deserving of a value reassessment [4][12]. - Domestic non-ferrous metal companies are valued lower compared to their overseas counterparts, despite having comparable growth potential and core competitiveness [4][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Huabao ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of non-ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the entire sector's beta performance [5][13]. - It is recommended to allocate 10%-20% of investment portfolios to the non-ferrous metals sector to benefit from price increases while diversifying risk [4][12].

首先讲讲黄金。黄金的长周期走势，核心由其金融属性与信用风险主导，目前显然仍处于大的上行周期中。从各国央行数据来看，自2023年至今，全球央行 持续增持黄金，且毫无降温迹象。尤其是中国央行，截至去年年底已连续14个月增持黄金。事实上，中国央行或许是最擅长配置黄金的央行，跟随其节奏往 往不会出错，因此从长周期视角来看，黄金的上行趋势仍未完待续。 此外，抛售美国国债的交易似乎再度启动。近期，丹麦养老金发言人表示计划于1月底清仓美国国债；尽管其清仓规模不大，但随后瑞典最大养老基金也宣 布清仓，规模约70亿美元至80亿美元。该基金管理着超过300万瑞典人的养老金，其决策绝非一时冲动，而是基于对未来长期趋势的判断所做出的转向。 目前来看，特朗普作为美国总统，前期将对格陵兰岛的诉求升级为关税威胁及其他相关威胁，而欧洲方面则以抛售所持巨额美债作为回应。数据显示，欧洲 八国当前持有的美债规模约接近2万亿美元，占海外投资者持有总量的比例较高，约为五分之一左右。 数据来源：Wind，数据截至2026年1月 大家可能也关注到了近期的一些重大事件，在此我们稍作分享与点评。美国总统近期对格陵兰岛的态度出现大幅反转：前期表态强硬，后续则放 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a significant rise, supported by geopolitical tensions, monetary easing, and a global trend towards de-dollarization, with the current market dynamics favoring gold as a strategic asset [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 29, the gold ETF (518800) rose by 5.49% [1]. - London gold prices approached $5,600 per ounce, while silver prices briefly surpassed $120 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% with a 10:2 voting ratio, which aligns with market expectations [2]. - Despite the Fed's decision supporting the dollar, there are concerns regarding the potential risks to the Fed's independence and the clarity of its interest rate policy [2]. Group 3: Supporting Factors for Gold Prices - Key drivers for gold prices include ongoing geopolitical conflicts (e.g., tensions in Iran, Greenland sovereignty disputes, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict), which enhance gold's safe-haven premium [3]. - The trend of global central banks purchasing gold and the acceleration of de-dollarization processes provide structural support for gold prices [3]. - From a supply-demand perspective, global gold reserves are projected to last until 2032 at current extraction rates, with resource-exporting countries tightening mineral export restrictions, increasing gold's strategic value [3]. Group 4: Industrial Demand - The demand for industrial gold is expected to grow due to advancements in AI and high-tech industries, while the photovoltaic sector's increased silver consumption strengthens the correlation between gold and silver [3]. Group 5: Market Indicators - The current RSI indicator for international spot gold is at a high level, and the volatility index has reached a near ten-year peak, indicating potential short-term market correction pressures [3]. - Investors are encouraged to monitor the gold ETF (518800) for suitable investment opportunities [3].

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, dropping over $400 before recovering nearly half of the loss, with a maximum intraday drop of 5.7% [1][17] - The spot gold price approached $5600 but fell to $5105.83 before rebounding to around $5317, reflecting a 1.8% decrease at the time of reporting [1] - The volatility in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking by investors after recent highs, with gold up 6.5% for the week and 23% for the month [17] Group 2: Factors Influencing Precious Metals - The rise in precious metals is supported by dual factors: escalating geopolitical risks increasing global risk aversion and a deepening trend of "de-dollarization" raising doubts about the dollar's credibility [4] - Industrial metals and oil sectors are also gaining momentum due to a recovery in manufacturing and steady demand from green technology [4] Group 3: Silver Market Movements - Silver prices fell from a historical high of $121.67 to $106.80, with a maximum intraday drop of 8.5%, before recovering to around $114, reflecting a 2.3% decrease [6] Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Reactions - Investor sentiment is mixed, with some expressing frustration over recent losses in gold investments, highlighting the emotional impact of market fluctuations [5][13] - The demand for gold remains strong, with significant interest from both cryptocurrency companies and central banks, indicating a sustained appetite for gold as a safe-haven asset [17]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-30 去美元化交易加速，⾦银同步刷新历史 ⾼位 贵⾦属延续极端强势。美元⾛弱、主权债与法币信任受损、地缘与政策不 确定性叠加，去美元化交易进⼊加速阶段。⻩⾦突破5500美元关⼝，⽩银 同步创历史新⾼，⾦强银更强的结构维持，但⾼位波动与流动性约束开始 显性化。（以上新闻和数据均来⾃彭博终端） 黄金观点：去美元化交易主导，黄金进入加速再定价阶段。 逻辑：美元指数持续回落、日债与欧美主权债波动放大，推动资金从 债券与法币体系向黄金迁移。市场对美联储独立性、财政扩张与政策 工具有效性的担忧强化，黄金作为"最终结算资产"的配置需求快速 放大。短期内，趋势资金与被动配置共振，推动价格连续突破关键整 数位，但银行资产负债表约束抬升波动率。（以上新闻和数据均来自 彭博终端） 展望：中期上行逻辑未改，但短期超买信号显著，需关注高位震荡与 阶段性回撤风险。若美元弱势延续，黄金仍具顺趋势配置价值。 白银观点：白银弹性释放加速。 逻辑： 在黄金强势定价框架下，白银补涨属性与流动性驱动凸显。 工业与金融双重属性叠加，资金在金价持续创新高背景下向 ...