特朗普再次将目标瞄准了美联储。 作为总统，他关注经济增长，也希望美联储的货币政策，能够迎合他的目标。 美联储理事会的席位，成为特朗普施压的重要阵地。 他的目标是什么？他能否成功地让美联储做出他想要的改变？ 特朗普与美联储的关系，一直以来就不太友好。 自2016年竞选总统以来，特朗普便公开批评美联储的货币政策。 他认为，美联储过于保守，经济复苏的步伐太慢，尤其是在他提出的一系列税务改革和贸易政策的背景下，希望美联储能够采取更为宽松的货币政策。 2018年，特朗普更是公开指责美联储加息太快，影响了股市表现，并且对美国经济的长远发展造成负面影响。 他的言辞直白、批评猛烈，直言美联储没有看到经济增长的潜力，也没有认识到低利率对促进就业的重要性。 这些话语映射出特朗普对于美联储决策的深刻不满，尤其是他不喜欢美联储主席鲍威尔的政策。 随着2020年的选举临近，特朗普在经济政策方面变得愈加激进。 他的目标依然是推动美联储放松货币政策，继续采取降息的手段刺激美国经济，尤其是在面对新冠疫情带来的经济衰退时，特朗普坚持认为降低利率能够快 速恢复经济活力。 面对鲍威尔的坚持不降息，特朗普的施压手段显得更加明显。 特朗普要求美联储理 ...

8月25日，据媒体报道，在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储年度研讨会期间，来自世界各国的央行官 员担心，如果全球最具影响力的央行屈服于政治压力，将为其他国家的政治干预开创危险先例。 特朗普公开施压美联储主席鲍威尔辞职，并试图驱逐理事库克（Lisa Cook），这种做法已经引起国际 央行界的高度关注。欧洲央行决策者Olli Rehn表示： "对美联储出于政治动机的攻击会在精神上波及世界其他地区，包括欧洲"。 报道指出，特朗普对美联储的施压并非孤例，日本、拉脱维亚等多国央行都面临类似政治压力。 分析人士指出，如果美联储的独立性受到损害，可能引发金融市场重大动荡，投资者将要求持有美债获 得更高风险溢价，并重新评估美债作为全球金融体系命脉的地位。各国央行已开始为这种冲击做准备， 提醒银行关注美元敞口。 全球央行官员力挺鲍威尔 报道称，在杰克逊霍尔会议期间，国际央行界展现出对美联储独立性的坚定支持。当鲍威尔登台演讲 时，与会者起立鼓掌表达支持。 据接受媒体采访的十几位各国央行官员透露，美联储因失去独立性而削弱抗通胀能力的情形，被视为对 全球央行地位和经济稳定的直接威胁。德国央行行长、欧洲央行管委会成员Joachim Na ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve, particularly targeting its board members, which could fundamentally reshape the structure and independence of the Fed [1][3][4]. Group 1: Security and Atmosphere at Jackson Hole - This year's Jackson Hole symposium saw heightened security measures, contrasting sharply with previous years, indicating the tense atmosphere surrounding the Federal Reserve [2][4]. - Law enforcement presence included federal police and local sheriff's deputies, reflecting the seriousness of the situation [2]. Group 2: Trump's Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump's pressure has escalated from targeting Fed Chair Powell to directly threatening board member Lisa Cook, indicating a more aggressive stance [3][4]. - Trump has publicly stated that if Cook does not resign due to mortgage fraud allegations, he will fire her, showcasing his intent to influence the Fed's decision-making [2][3]. Group 3: Potential Restructuring of the Federal Reserve - If Trump secures two more nominations to the Fed's board, he would gain a majority, potentially allowing him to reshape the Fed's structure significantly [1][3]. - A key strategy could involve dismissing the 12 regional bank presidents, which would undermine the independence established since the Fed's inception in 1913 [1][5]. Group 4: Historical Context and Implications - Historical lessons from the 1970s highlight the dangers of political pressure on the Fed, which led to policy mistakes and severe inflation, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence [8]. - If investor confidence in the Fed's data-driven decision-making erodes due to political influence, it could negatively impact borrowing costs and currency stability [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating pressure from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve, particularly targeting its board members, which highlights the challenges faced by the central bank in maintaining its independence and decision-making integrity [1][4][7]. Group 1: Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump's pressure has shifted from solely criticizing Chairman Powell to directly threatening board member Lisa Cook, indicating a more aggressive stance [2][4]. - The atmosphere at the Jackson Hole conference was tense, with increased security measures reflecting the heightened scrutiny on the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 2: Potential Restructuring of the Federal Reserve - Trump has appointed two members to the seven-member Federal Reserve Board and aims to secure a majority by nominating two more, which could fundamentally reshape the Fed's structure [3][4]. - If Trump gains a majority, he may also attempt to dismiss the presidents of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, undermining the independence established since the Fed's inception in 1913 [5][6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Implications - Historical lessons from the 1970s indicate that political pressure on the Fed can lead to policy mistakes and economic turmoil, raising concerns about the potential erosion of market confidence in the Fed's data-driven decision-making [7].

普尔特此前多次对鲍威尔表示不满，近期则频繁在社交媒体发文攻击库克。美国司法部已宣布将启动对库克的调查。上 周五，特朗普再次发文威胁，如果库克不主动辞职，他将开除库克。 库克则发表声明，拒绝因"霸凌"而辞职。她表示自己准备好接受关于其财务历史的任何问询，目前正在收集相关信息以 应对合法质询。 拉加德的这番表态正是在特朗普有意"洗牌"美联储理事会的背景之下。特朗普不断公开批评美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威 尔，要求美联储立刻降息，甚至对鲍威尔发起诉讼威胁。虽然表明自己不会在鲍威尔任期结束前将其免职，但特朗普开 始提前物色美联储新主席人选，以加大对鲍威尔施压。鲍威尔任期将于2026年5月结束。 上周，特朗普还开始对前总统约瑟夫·拜登任命的美联储理事莉萨·库克发难，要求库克辞职。特朗普对库克的施压源于 特朗普盟友、美国联邦住房金融局局长比尔·普尔特对库克的指控。 普尔特指控库克在2021年申请贷款时，先后将在密歇根州和佐治亚州的两处房产都申报为主要居所。根据美国的贷款规 定，主要居所比次要居所和投资房产的贷款条件更宽松。普尔特指责库克伪造银行文件和房产记录以获得更宽松的贷款 条件。除此之外，普尔特还指责库克没有依法披露所有收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Jackson Hole symposium highlighted the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, with internal disagreements on the appropriateness of potential interest rate cuts amid rising inflation and a weakening labor market [1][2][3]. Economic Dilemma: Inflation and Employment - Policymakers are grappling with high inflation rates above the 2% target and signs of labor market weakness, creating conflicting signals that complicate decision-making [2]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted the difficulty of navigating these contradictory signals during a transformative period [2]. - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve is increasing, particularly from former President Donald Trump, who has been vocal about pushing for interest rate cuts [2][3]. Interest Rate Path: Rate Cut Expectations and Internal Disagreements - Jerome Powell's speech indicated a potential for interest rate cuts at the upcoming September meeting, but consensus among policymakers is lacking compared to previous years [3]. - Recent data shows inflation stagnating above the Fed's target, while labor market indicators present a mixed picture, leading to growing divisions among policymakers [3]. - The potential for dissenting votes at the September meeting is heightened, especially with upcoming nominations to fill vacancies on the Fed's board [3]. Pressure on Independence: Maintaining Federal Reserve Autonomy - The Federal Reserve is under scrutiny from the White House, with discussions about political pressures permeating informal interactions at the symposium [4]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is viewed as crucial for achieving its dual mandate of price stability and full employment [5][6]. New Policy Framework: Returning to Fundamental Goals - Powell introduced a new policy framework aimed at guiding policymakers in achieving inflation and employment targets, moving away from previous focuses on low inflation challenges [5]. - The emphasis on maintaining the Fed's independence is seen as essential for effectively addressing inflation and unemployment [5][6]. Global Impact: Ripple Effects of Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decisions have far-reaching implications beyond the U.S., influencing global economic conditions [6]. - Following Powell's remarks, the euro appreciated against the dollar, indicating potential downward pressure on inflation in the Eurozone [6].

克利夫兰联储主席贝丝・哈玛克（Beth Hammack）上周五接受CNBC采访时表示，她支持库克："我了 解莉萨·库克，她是一位杰出的经济学家，为人正直。我认为，美联储维持货币政策独立性至关重要， 这样我们才能为美国民众带来良好的经济成果。" 最新事态发展引发了华尔街对美联储独立性的担忧。特朗普一直是鲍威尔的直言不讳的批评者，他曾嘲 讽鲍威尔调整利率"动作太慢"，还指责鲍威尔"政治化"。 尽管特朗普表示，在鲍威尔2026年5月主席任期结束前，"不太可能"解雇他，但他已开始考虑多位继任 者人选。就在上周，他还威胁要允许推进一起针对鲍威尔的"重大诉讼"，同时再次要求美联储降息。 一直秉持严格"数据依赖型"立场的美联储，自去年12月以来始终维持利率稳定。 本周，在指控出现后，特朗普还施压库克辞职。他上周五甚至表示，若库克不主动离职，就会将其解 雇。这番言论发布后，预测平台Kalshi上"库克今年卸任美联储理事"的概率大幅飙升，从当天早些时候 的约21%升至30%以上。 前波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦（Eric Rosengren）认为，无论是库克本人还是政府，在做出决定前 都需要更多信息。 当被问及美联储理事莉萨 ...

综合下来这就变的十分的矛盾，那么这一波特朗普能赌赢嘛？ 美联储提前泄密，华尔街收到风声，降息存在变数？特朗普要赌输了 怀俄明州的杰克逊霍尔小镇，全球的央行领导人都会集结在这里，开一个决定全球经济命脉的大会。 美联储主席鲍威尔即将在这里的央行年会上发声，而市场却提前嗅到了火药味，原本被特朗普"钦点"的9月降息，突然悬了。华尔街的投行机构们就好像 收到了风声一般，开始迅速的调整仓位，快速降低9月份美联储降息的概率。 而特朗普呢，一方面想让美联储尽快降息，为自己的执政增加助力，好在中期选举的时候别出意外，另外一方面又想用强劲的经济数据来彰显自己的执政 能力。 降息梦碎：从"板上钉钉"到"鹰派惊雷" 8月18日在美联储主席鲍威尔参加杰克逊霍尔之前，华尔街的大型投行发布了一些振聋发聩的研究报告： 汇丰认为：鲍威尔可能很难再说出"很鸽"的话，因为现在既有通胀压力，又有就业放缓，出现点类似"滞胀"的味道。如果这时候太放松，风险更大。 美国银行认为，鲍威尔完全有理由"按兵不动"，在杰克逊霍尔上保持谨慎，不想被市场绑架。 花旗银行认为，其美元持仓指标已从小幅空头变为零，暗示当前投资者没有明显的净多空倾向。 7月底，市场对9月降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's sudden shift from a hawkish stance to a dovish one, particularly in the context of interest rate cuts, has raised questions about the underlying factors influencing this change, including economic data and political pressure from the White House [1][3][5]. Economic Data - The July non-farm payroll data revealed only 73,000 new jobs, significantly below the expected 115,000, with the unemployment rate rising from 4% to 4.2% [5][10]. - The average new jobs over the past three months dropped to 35,000, indicating a near stagnation in the economy [10]. Political Pressure - President Trump has consistently applied pressure on the Federal Reserve, including public statements and the recent nomination of Stephen Moore, a known supporter, to the Board of Governors [7][8][15]. - The timing of Trump's actions, including the dismissal of the Labor Department's statistics chief, suggests a strategic move to create a scapegoat while increasing pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates [13][15]. Market Reaction - Following Powell's hints at a potential rate cut, major stock indices surged: the Dow Jones increased by 1.89%, Nasdaq by 1.88%, and S&P 500 by 1.52% [5][20]. - The probability of a rate cut jumped from 80% to 91.5%, indicating strong market expectations for a policy shift [5]. Implications for China - The Fed's potential rate cuts could lead to a narrowing of interest rate differentials between the U.S. and China, providing opportunities for capital inflow into Chinese markets [17][20]. - Chinese stock markets reacted positively, with significant gains in indices such as the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext, highlighting the attractiveness of Chinese equities to international investors [20][22]. Strategic Positioning - The Fed's policy shift reflects deeper structural issues within the U.S. economy, including a staggering national debt of $41 trillion and rising interest costs, which necessitate a move towards lower rates [28][31]. - China's resilience during this period, characterized by a robust manufacturing base and stable political environment, positions it favorably to capitalize on the changing global financial landscape [31][32][33].

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump raises concerns about the independence of monetary policy, with possible implications for inflation, fiscal stability, the dollar's status, and market performance [1] Group 1: Potential Impacts of a New Fed Chair - Increased risk of stagflation due to potential policy shifts [1] - Heightened fiscal concerns as a result of a politically influenced Fed [1] - Weakened dollar and capital flight if the Fed's independence is compromised [1] - Possible market turmoil leading to simultaneous declines in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar [1] Group 2: Candidates for Fed Chair - Main candidates include Waller, Hassett, and Walsh, with Milan emerging as a potential dark horse due to his dovish stance and advocacy for reduced Fed independence [1] - Other candidates consist of current Fed officials like Bowman, Jefferson, and Logan, as well as financial institution representatives and former government economists [1] Group 3: Candidate Statements - Waller emphasizes the need for the Fed to focus on its work rather than presidential comments, suggesting a 25 basis point rate cut in July is reasonable [2] - Hassett acknowledges the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence while also advocating for a reassessment of interest rate paths [2] - Walsh supports the idea of a rate cut and expresses willingness to lead the Fed if called upon by the President [2]