Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a collective increase in the first half of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.76%, while the North Stock 50 Index outperformed with a remarkable increase of 39.45% [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3444.43 points, up 0.59% on June 30, 2025, with a total trading volume of 63.7 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the second half of 2024 [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index saw smaller gains of 0.48% and 0.53%, respectively, while the North Stock 50 Index had a significant increase of 39.45% [1][2]. - The average A-share price increased by 11.99%, rising from 19.69 yuan to 22.05 yuan, indicating a strong market performance compared to the major indices [2]. Market Structure - The performance of small and mid-cap growth stocks was notably better than large-cap blue chips, with the CSI 2000 Index rising by 15.24% and the CSI 1000 Index by 6.69% [2]. - The STAR Market's composite index increased by 9.93%, but the STAR 50 Index only rose by 1.46%, indicating that large-cap stocks may have dragged down overall performance [2]. Outlook for the Second Half - CITIC Securities predicts that the synchronization of the US and Chinese economic and policy cycles will lead to macroeconomic resilience, favoring growth-oriented stocks in the second half of the year [3]. - Core assets are expected to show significant relative profitability and operational resilience, with a potential revaluation of A-share assets in Hong Kong, which could act as a "blue-chip engine" [3]. - The reform of public fund management is anticipated to shift institutional investors' focus towards core company pricing rather than chasing industry trends, leading to a gradual return to leading companies with pricing power [3].

□本报记者王辉 头部私募仓位高企 顺时投资权益投资总监易小斌认为，近期，部分外部因素的积极变化为A股运行提供了有利环境，但起 决定性作用的仍然是内部因素。这些因素包括：市场自2024年10月高点以来的累计调整时间已超8个 月，技术面面临突破；国内政策密集出台，直接刺激了券商、金融科技等板块爆发；市场资金面充裕， 核聚变、稳定币、固态电池等热点不断涌现，有效维系了市场人气。易小斌判断，这些内外部积极因素 的中期延续性较强，有利因素不断积聚，预计将推动行情持续发展。 融智投资基金经理夏风光从宏观周期角度分析称，下半年全球主要经济体货币政策的"潜在共振"是关键 变量，美联储重启降息进程的可能性正在增大，这将为国内货币和财政政策打开空间。夏风光表 示："流动性环境的进一步改善叠加经济回暖，有望进一步推升本轮A股的阶段性趋势行情。" 来自第三方机构私募排排网的最新监测数据显示，截至6月20日，全市场股票私募机构的平均仓位水平 为74.62%，较前一周小幅上升0.37个百分点，这一数值处于今年以来的中等偏高水平。在具体仓位上， 54.31%股票私募机构仓位处于重仓或满仓(仓位大于八成)水平，24.41%股票私募仓位处于中 ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a continuous increase in the first three days of the week, with a notable retreat on Friday, resulting in major indices closing with significant upper shadows [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.91% for the week, closing at 3424.23 points, down from a high of 3462.75 points [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index, ChiNext Index, Sci-Tech Innovation 50, and North Star 50 increased by 4.24%, 5.71%, 3.17%, and 6.84% respectively over the week [1] External Influences - The market opened lower on Monday due to U.S. airstrikes on ISIS nuclear facilities but rebounded unexpectedly [1] - News of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran boosted market risk appetite, leading to further gains on Tuesday [1] - A subsequent statement from U.S. President Trump regarding potential military conflict between Israel and Iran contributed to a slight market pullback on Thursday [1] Sector Performance - On Wednesday, brokerage stocks surged due to favorable news, contributing to the overall market rise [1] - On Friday, the banking sector faced a significant decline, impacting the Shanghai Composite Index, while other major indices showed slight increases [1] - The Shanghai Banking Index had risen for nine consecutive weeks prior to the recent downturn, indicating a strong performance before the correction [1] Industrial Profit Trends - From January to May, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises fell by 1.1% year-on-year, a decline from a 1.4% increase in the previous period [2] - In May alone, profits dropped by 9.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 3.0% increase in April [2] - This decline in industrial profits is expected to exert pressure on most stocks, including banking shares [2] Market Outlook - Investor demand for year-end accounting is likely to have subsided, leading to reduced volatility in individual stocks or sectors [2] - External disturbances appear to have stabilized, with increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, suggesting a supportive external environment for A-shares [2] - The outlook for the second half of the year indicates that the upward potential for A-shares is likely greater than the downside risk [2]

Market Overview - The CSI A500 Index (000510) rose by 0.08% as of June 27, 2025, with notable increases in stocks such as Longxin Technology (688047) up 15.19%, Huatian Technology (002185) up 10.06%, and Weining Health (300253) up 9.03% [1] - The A500 ETF Fund (512050) showed a trading volume of 33.51 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 20.12%, indicating active market participation [1] - Over the past year, the A500 ETF Fund has averaged a daily trading volume of 35.70 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [1] Industry Insights - Investment opportunities in the second half of the year include: 1. Pharmaceutical and defense industries driven by overseas expansion logic 2. TMT sector benefiting from sustained high demand and reduced trading congestion 3. Banking sector opportunities supported by regulatory measures encouraging insurance capital entry and a low-interest-rate environment [2] - The A500 ETF Fund has seen net inflows in 4 out of the last 5 trading days, totaling 9.02 billion yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 1.80 billion yuan [2] Top Holdings - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 Index are: 1. Kweichow Moutai (600519) - 4.28% 2. CATL (300750) - 2.96% 3. Ping An Insurance (601318) - 2.46% 4. China Merchants Bank (600036) - 2.37% 5. Midea Group (000333) - 1.71% 6. Yangtze Power (600900) - 1.51% 7. Industrial Bank (601166) - 1.39% 8. Zijin Mining (601899) - 1.32% 9. Eastmoney Information (300059) - 1.26% 10. BYD (002594) - 1.51% - The top ten stocks account for a total of 21.21% of the index [2][4]

二是各国家和地区陆续出台稳定币监管政策，非银金融板块表现亮眼。稳定币对跨境交易结算具有较高 的便利性，同时也可用作新型储备货币，对一个国家的金融市场高水平对外开放意义非凡。在A股市场 缺乏热点题材的当下，其成为资金重点流入的板块，但是稳定币作为交易媒介取代美元的道路仍较为遥 远，市场不宜过分追高。 三是中东地缘冲突告一段落，从此前几日黄金等大宗商品的表现来看，市场并未积极计价尾部风险。因 此，停战结果可能并未超过市场预期，对A股影响有限。 从政策面看，中信建投期货金融衍生品分析师孟庆姝表示， 2024年9月24日至今，各项经济、金融相关 政策持续出台，其中较大部分为总量型政策，如《中华人民共和国民营经济促进法》《推动公募基金高 质量发展行动方案》等，这类政策对经济、金融领域的改善是长效性、持续性的。目前，靠前发布的此 类政策已完成初步传导，其效果逐步显现，如民营、中小企业利润增速扩大，CPI服务分项增速扩大， 鸿鹄基金投资入市等。 本周A股回升明显，各股指表现偏强，股指期货各品种均有明显涨幅。分析人士认为，国内政策和海外 多因素共同作用推动了A股的本轮上涨。 据孟庆姝介绍，5月初中国人民银行实行"降息降准"， ...

A股开盘，上证指数涨0.06%，深证成指涨0.27%，创业板指涨0.54%。 ...

Group 1 - The market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3461 points, while sectors like communication equipment, cultural media, tourism, and electronic components performed well, whereas chemical pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, beauty care, and biological products lagged [1] - Long-term capital inflow is accelerating, with a steady increase in ETF size and continuous inflow of insurance funds, providing significant support to the market [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June, but uncertainty remains regarding the path of potential rate cuts, which could significantly boost global risk appetite if clear signals are released [1] Group 2 - The three major indices in the market experienced a collective pullback, but the Shanghai Composite Index remains above the 5-day moving average, indicating a stabilizing upward trend [2] - With ongoing policies aimed at stabilizing growth, steady progress in infrastructure investment, and effective consumer stimulus policies, the macroeconomic recovery trend is becoming clearer [2] - The likelihood of a systemic large-scale adjustment in the market is relatively low due to enhanced policy support for stable capital market operations and reasonable liquidity [2]

Group 1 - The recent surge in A-shares is primarily driven by the approval of a "virtual asset trading license" by Guotai Junan International, allowing direct trading of cryptocurrencies on their platform, which has significantly boosted market confidence [1] - The market experienced a sharp decline after the initial surge, highlighting the challenges of timing short-term market movements despite a generally positive long-term outlook for value investors [1][2] - Economic data has shown resilience despite initial pessimism following the US-China trade conflict, with export figures remaining strong and consumer policies supporting stability [4][5] Group 2 - The current economic environment is characterized by a downward trend in fundamentals, yet there are structural opportunities in certain sectors, particularly in technology, which is seen as a growth driver [6][7] - The concept of technological advancement is emphasized as a key factor in economic growth, with significant breakthroughs in areas like artificial intelligence and nuclear fusion indicating a potential for recovery and prosperity [8] - The market is experiencing a rotation phenomenon, where sector performance varies significantly, reflecting a shift from a bear market to a bull market, with indices showing upward movement amidst this rotation [9][10] Group 3 - Financial stocks have played a crucial role in driving the index above key resistance levels, supported by a macro backdrop of declining interest rates, while technology stocks are also showing signs of recovery [11] - The current market environment is described as both optimistic and challenging for investors, with the need for a disciplined approach to avoid the pitfalls of chasing trends during periods of volatility [11]

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年6月25日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 内外利好，股指延续上涨 市场回顾 今日股指放量上涨，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨1.44%。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨1881.59亿元。 期指均放量上涨。 重要资讯 1. 央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，从支持增强消费能力、扩大消费领 域金融供给、挖掘释放居民消费潜力、促进提升消费供给效能、优化消费环境和政策支撑保障等六个方面提 出19项重点举措。《意见》明确，设立服务消费与养老再贷款，额度5000亿元。健全投资和融资相协调的资 本市场功能，推动中长期资金入市，促进资本市场稳定发展。 2. 以色列和伊朗同意全面停火！伊朗最高国家安全委员会发表声明，宣布与"以色列及其支持者"停火。 核心观点 昨日收盘后央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，文件中明确设立额度5000 亿元的服务消费与养老再贷款。再加上以色列和伊朗同意全面停火。内外双重利好下今日股指再度放量大 涨。从期指算术平均基差来看，各期指均贴水 ...

据CCTV国际时讯援引路透社报道，一名伊朗高级官员向路透社证实，伊朗已接受卡塔尔参与调解、美国提出的与以色列停火方案。就在早些时 候，美国总统特朗普宣布以色列和伊朗将分阶段全面停火。这个消息一出，在全球市场或将激起千层浪，对A股也势必产生深远影响。 2、避险资产也将面临回调压力。黄金、军工等冲突受益板块此前因市场恐慌情绪被推高，随着局势缓和，获利资金或加速离场。投资者需警惕前 期涨幅过高的避险个股出现技术性回调风险； 简单说，如果伊以真的停火，短期或有以下影响： 1、中东作为全球能源核心枢纽，其局势变化直接牵动大宗商品市场与全球供应链神经。若伊以停火落地，最直接的影响将体现在能源领域。霍尔 木兹海峡封锁风险大幅降低，国际油价短期暴涨预期随之消退。对A股而言，航空、交运等成本敏感型行业将率先受益，尤其是燃油成本下降直 接转化为企业利润，有望推动相关板块估值修复； 3、从更宏观的视角看，全球供应链有望迎来修复。此前因地缘冲突引发的运输中断、成本攀升等问题，将逐步得到缓解，A 股出口导向型企业的 经营压力随之减轻。同时，北向资金因避险情绪产生的大幅波动也将趋于平稳，为市场注入稳定性。 据中国基金报消息，美联储理事克 ...