降息是不是意味着美联储听命于美国总统了？不能这么认为，美国近期的就业数据太拉垮了，即便不考虑政治因素也确实该降息了。 然而，美联储在未来的日子里怕是很难守住"独立性"原则了，特朗普正打算逐步"接手"美联储，而且已经完成了第一步。 9月15日，美国国会通过了对新的美联储理事米兰的任命投票，后者担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席这一联邦政府行政职务的情况下成为美联储理事。这在美 联储的历史上是极其罕见的。 不过，降息幅度只有25个基点，这可远远达不到特朗普的心理预期，他早就喊话要降100个基点，至少也要来个50，才能把经济和股市炒热，为自己政绩加 分。 结果联邦公开市场委员会投票时，只有他亲自任命的新理事米兰支持50个基点降息，其余11票一边倒地选了25，这不是"打脸"，但也绝对不是什么"送礼"。 这说明，美联储的决策还是以经济数据为锚点，没被政治风向牵着鼻子走，特朗普可以喊破喉咙，但真正拍板的那群人，显然更怕经济出乱子，也更在意美 元的全球信誉。 美联储向全球宣布降息，特朗普这次虽胜犹败，他没想到美联储会这样团结。 随着美联储主席鲍威尔的一声"下午好"，美联储在周三的会议上如期降息25基点，强调就业市场的下行风险是此次 ...

来源：谭浩俊财经视角 美联储降息了。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间17日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金 利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次 降息后再次降息。消息一出，投资者开始评估美联储利率决定和预测，美股闻风而动。与此同时，美联 储能否维持其独立性再次引发外界担忧。 降息未消除特朗普的不满情绪 美国总统特朗普在降息问题上，与美联储、特别是美联储主席鲍威尔之间的矛盾，已经到了水火不容的 程度，用"不共戴天"来形容，也未必过分。如果美联储是政府机构，鲍威尔可能已经被特朗普撤换几次 了，其他美联储成员，大多也会被特朗普换个遍。 苦于美联储的独立性相对较强，撤换美联储主席，可不是一件容易的事。因此，对特朗普来说，也是心 有余而力不足。有关撤换鲍威尔的狠话，也不知讲了多少遍，可鲍威尔仍然稳稳地坐在美联储主席的位 置上。 那么，这一次的降息，能否缓和鲍威尔与特朗普的关系呢？特朗普是否满意这次降息呢？很显然，这次 降息对特朗普来说，不满情绪仍然占据明显上风。且不说这次降息是特朗普多次狠话后的"成果"，单是 25个基点的降 ...

文 | 听云霭 编辑 | 听云霭 2025 年 9 月 18 日凌晨两点，对于全球金融界来说，是一个不寻常的时刻。 美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔准时出现在全球记者的镜头前，他说出了那句让唐纳德・特朗普心心念念的话：下调联邦基准利率25 个基点。 资料参考：2025-09-18证券时报——凌晨！美联储宣布：降息25个基点！鲍威尔重磅发声！ 1.美联储降息 降息这件事，我们之前也见过不少次，但这一次却完全不一样。 今年以来，在美国的经济领域，一直有一个巨大的争论，那就是美联储到底要不要降息。 从 9 月 18 日凌晨开始，全球金融行业的投资大佬们几乎都不约而同地发出了相同的感叹：美联储所谓的尊严，所谓神圣不可侵犯的独立性，在这一刻正式 幻灭。 以鲍威尔为代表的传统老派技术型官员，他们有着理工男的风格，始终坚持不降息。 他们觉得美国现在通胀还没散去，物价还很贵，降息根本没有理由，谁降息谁就是美国老百姓的罪人。 而另一派呢，就是以特朗普为代表的白宫西翼政客群体。 前几天，特朗普骂得都上头了，他说在自己的领导之下，美国经济这么好，随便来个人都能干得比鲍威尔出色。 这俩加起来都 150 多岁的人了，为啥骂得这么不留情面呢？ ...

期间，特朗普从骂人到威胁，招数用尽，最后只能往美联储理事会塞自己人。 时隔9个月，美联储终于宣布降息25个基点。说实话，这次降息对我们影响还是挺大的。 但在说影响之前，想先跟大家聊一些有意思的事情，包括发生的一场"闹剧"。 其实，特朗普从一上任开始，就嚷嚷着想要降息。 这也很好理解，就是想通过降息拉动股市和制造业，毕竟特朗普刚上任，刚好能帮他攒点政绩、撑撑场面。 但鲍威尔偏偏没有给这个面子，对特朗普的要求视而不见，硬是顶住了特朗普九个月的压力。 直到压力越来越大，鲍威尔才在9月松口降息。 特朗普这么执着，一方面确实需要政策来装点门面，另一方面，恐怕也是觉得鲍威尔太不給面子。 特朗普上任前的2024年底，鲍威尔配合拜登哐哐降了100个基点，等他上台，反而按兵不动。换谁心里都不舒服。 但鲍威尔坚持不轻易降息，也有他的理由。 一是经济情况不允许。 24年底的通胀已经回落，而且就业市场也相对稳定，有一定的降息空间。 而到了25年，通胀开始反弹，加上特朗普挑起贸易战，通胀抬头、失业也在上升。 照理说通胀时期企业往往扩大生产，就业应该会改善。 但如今却形成了一个非常矛盾的局面—"低增长、高通胀"的滞胀格局。 这时候如果大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut, reflecting its "survival wisdom" under political pressure from the White House, particularly from Trump, who has remained unusually silent on the matter [1][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was passed with a surprising 11-1 vote, showcasing unexpected unity within the institution despite external pressures [2][10]. - Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management decision," indicating that the Fed believes its policies have been on the right track this year [6][19]. - The recent adjustment comes amid a backdrop of significant downward revisions in non-farm employment data, with a reduction of 910,000 jobs, highlighting the economic challenges faced [7][19]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The meeting was described as a "showdown" between the Federal Reserve and the White House, with Powell managing to maintain internal unity despite the political climate [9][10]. - The vote reflected a temporary victory for the Fed's independence, as the majority of members supported the rate cut despite potential pressures from Trump [10][12]. - The only dissenting vote came from a newly appointed member who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, indicating ongoing divisions within the Fed [11][13]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The rate cut is seen as a preventive measure to safeguard economic growth before a potential recession, with Powell acknowledging signs of a weakening job market [18][19]. - Historical precedents for preventive rate cuts have led to varied outcomes, including soft landings, recessions, and high inflation, raising questions about the current economic trajectory [21][26]. - Analysts express concerns that the current economic issues stem from rising costs rather than insufficient demand, suggesting that excessive monetary easing could exacerbate inflation [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% was anticipated, but the market reaction was unexpected, with the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rising sharply after a brief dip, while gold experienced significant selling pressure [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Fed's Actions - Fed Chairman Powell labeled the rate cut as a "risk management" move, indicating that the motivation was not due to an existing recession but rather to hedge against future uncertainties [3][5]. - Despite the rate cut, Powell acknowledged rising risks in the labor market, with both labor supply and hiring demand declining sharply, creating a "peculiar balance" [5]. - Inflation and unemployment rates, which typically move in opposite directions, have both shown upward trends recently, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5][8]. Group 2: Fed's Forecasts and Political Pressures - On the same day as the rate cut, the Fed raised its GDP growth forecasts for the next three years while lowering unemployment rate predictions for the next two years, highlighting internal contradictions in its outlook [7][8]. - Political pressure from the White House is increasingly influencing Fed decisions, as evidenced by the dissenting vote from newly appointed board member Milan, who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [10][12]. - The market's trust in the Fed's independence is eroding, with concerns that the Fed's future policy may lean more towards government preferences due to ongoing political pressures [14][15]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Liquidity Concerns - The market has accepted predictions of one to two more rate cuts this year, but largely ignored the Fed's long-term projections, reflecting skepticism about the Fed's future policy direction [17]. - A more pressing concern is the tightening liquidity in the banking system, as indicated by the overnight financing rates in the repo market exceeding the Fed's policy rate ceiling, signaling potential financial instability [20][22]. - The ongoing reduction of the Fed's balance sheet is drawing liquidity from the market, which could lead to a situation where the Fed may need to reverse course and expand its balance sheet again, signaling a stronger easing than the rate cut itself [22][24].

在凤凰湾区财经论坛2025前夕，上海交通大学上海高级金融学院实践教授胡捷表示，美联储的独立性源 于历史经验，且已法律化。美国总统虽然可以通过提名（美联储）理事和（美联储）主席来达到将个人 意志施加给美联储的目的，但其影响力是有限的。 ...

此前，联邦法院已作出裁决，认为特朗普总统试图解雇库克的行为可能违法。值得注意的是，在美联储长达一个多世纪的历史中，从未出现过在任总统罢免 现任理事的情况，这使本案显得尤为特殊。库克是由民主党籍前总统拜登提名的美联储理事，她已多次公开表示不会屈服于政治压力而辞职。 由于联邦上诉法院驳回了罢免请求，共和党主导的特朗普政府转而向最高法院寻求支持。分析人士指出，这既是特朗普试图重组美联储领导层的举措，也可 能对美联储的独立性产生深远影响。库克的代理律师阿贝·洛厄尔强调，他的当事人将继续履行参议院确认的职责。 与此同时，参议院共和党人已批准特朗普提名的斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事。回溯到8月25日，特朗普首次尝试解雇库克，但这一决定在上周遭到联邦法官 否决，库克得以恢复原职。 特朗普政府指控库克在2021年申请抵押贷款时存在不实申报，称其将两处房产都标注为主要住所以获得更有利的贷款条件。但库克坚决否认这些指控，且目 前并未面临任何刑事起诉。美联社获取的文件显示，库克在贷款申请中明确将亚特兰大公寓标注为度假屋，这与政府的指控存在明显出入。 特朗普政府近日向美国最高法院提交紧急申请，要求撤销美联储理事莉萨·库克的职务。这一行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut, reflecting its "survival wisdom" under political pressure from the White House, particularly from Trump, who has remained unusually silent on this decision [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was passed with a surprising 11-1 vote, showcasing unexpected unity within the institution despite external pressures [1][7]. - The rate cut is characterized as a "preemptive cut" aimed at managing risks before a potential economic downturn occurs [14][18]. - Powell's statements during the announcement emphasized that the rate cut was a "risk management decision" and downplayed expectations for rapid adjustments to interest rates [6][18]. Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - Recent adjustments to employment data, with a downward revision of 911,000 jobs, indicate a weakening labor market, prompting the Fed's decision to cut rates to prevent further economic decline [6][10]. - Historical precedents of preemptive rate cuts have led to varied outcomes, including soft landings, recessions, and high inflation, raising questions about the potential consequences of the current cut [15][17]. - The current economic environment is marked by persistent inflation pressures, particularly in the service sector, complicating the Fed's decision to lower rates [17][23]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, gold prices initially surged to a historical high before retreating, indicating market reactions to the Fed's signals [18][24]. - The dollar index fell to its lowest point since February 2022 but began to recover after Powell's remarks, suggesting a complex market response to the Fed's actions [18][23]. - Analysts predict that the 10-year Treasury yield will stabilize around 4.4% in the coming years, with the Fed expected to gradually lower the federal funds rate [23].

北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储重启降息，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%～4.25%。 这是今年美联储首次采取降息措施。美联储本次降息的核心依据在于美国经济数据整体呈现疲弱态势、 通胀压力有所缓解，而就业市场动能的减弱，更是进一步强化了前期市场的降息预期，使得本次利率调 整完全在市场预料之内。 9月美联储议息会议前后，金融市场出现了"买预期、卖事实"的现象。在美联储9月议息会议正式宣布降 息之前，市场对降息的预期极为强烈，并普遍将降息视为重大利多消息。但随着降息的正式落地，市场 情绪迅速转向。美国三大股指冲高回落，呈现出典型的"利多出尽"特征。美元指数呈现V形走势，背后 的核心原因在于美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上谨慎偏"鸽"的表态，这让市场清醒认识到，美联储并 未传递出"大幅宽松"的明确信号，后续政策仍将保持谨慎。对当前市场而言，接下来更核心的问题是： 在美国就业市场持续低迷、通胀黏性未完全消退，且白宫不断施加政策压力的背景下，美联储接下来如 何把控降息节奏和降息幅度？ 从政治维度看，当前政治层面的不确定性虽对降息节奏构成潜在影响，但短期难以扭转"渐进调整"的政 策主线。若美联储独立性受到 ...