5月19日，国家统计局发布的房价数据显示，2025年4月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比持平或略降，同比降幅均持续收 窄。4月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比由上月上涨0.1%转为持平。其中，北京和上海分别上涨0.1%和0.5%，广州和深圳分别下降 0.2%和0.1%。二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比持平，与上月相同。三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.2%，降幅与上月相同。 4月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比由上月上涨0.2%转为下降0.2%。其中上海上涨0.1%，广州持平，北京和深圳分别下降0.6%和0.3%。 二、三线城市二手住宅销售价格环比均下降0.4%，降幅比上月分别扩大0.2个和0.1个百分点。（国家统计局网站） ｜点评｜ "稳楼市"政策效应逐渐减弱，加上关税影响，一些购房人可能推迟买房计划，整体而言，4月楼市出现了弱复苏的迹象。尽管此前在政 策支持下，市场预期有所改善，但从销售层面来看，房地产市场依然延续了以价换量的行情，其中二手房市场的表现尤为明显。部分地区取消 了二手房限售，场内供应增加，或也在短期内对市场形成了冲击。 点击上图 ▲立即加入 4月全国规上工业增加值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange is hosting the 2025 Global Investor Conference from May 19 to 20, showcasing the investment value of Chinese assets and the A-share market [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The conference will feature keynote speeches, roundtable discussions, and company roadshows, aimed at promoting high-level openness to the outside world [1] - This event has been held annually since 2020, serving as a bridge for communication and mutual learning between domestic and foreign markets [1] - This year's conference is unprecedented in scale, attracting over 400 domestic and foreign guests and involving more than 100 investment institutions [1] Group 2: Participation and Significance - Several CEOs, investment heads, and investment directors from foreign institutions will attend in person, marking the largest scale and highest specifications in the event's history [1] - The conference is taking place against the backdrop of a new phase in the revaluation of Chinese asset values, indicating significant interest from global investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience of Chinese assets amidst global economic changes and tariff disputes, highlighting the strong recovery of domestic indices and the positive impact of policy measures on market stability [1][3][16]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Market Recovery - The recent tariff disputes have significantly affected market expectations, leading to substantial declines in global stock indices, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping over 17% and the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 7% on April 7, 2025 [3]. - Following the announcement of supportive measures from regulatory bodies, including large-scale fund injections and stock buybacks, domestic indices have recovered to previous lows by May 12, 2025 [3][4]. - The recent progress in US-China trade talks, including a joint statement on reducing bilateral tariffs, is expected to further enhance the valuation of Chinese assets [3][16]. Group 2: Sector Performance and Technological Advancements - High-growth technology sectors, represented by indices such as DeepSeek and humanoid robots, have shown remarkable performance this year, with significant innovations attracting global attention [8]. - The success of Chinese films and cultural IPs in the global market indicates a growing recognition of Chinese cultural brands, further enhancing the investment landscape [8]. Group 3: Valuation Comparisons - Current valuations of Chinese assets are at historically low levels compared to US markets, with the Hang Seng Technology Index PE at 24.7, while the Nasdaq Index PE is at 41.4 [11][13]. - The divergence in valuations suggests a potential for convergence, as domestic policy expectations improve and technological advancements continue [11][16]. Group 4: Public Fund Reforms - The public fund industry is undergoing significant reforms aimed at enhancing the alignment of interests between funds and investors, transitioning from a focus on scale to value creation [14]. - These reforms are expected to stabilize the capital market and transform the Chinese stock market from a trading market to a more structured allocation market [14][16]. Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - The combination of robust policy support, technological breakthroughs, and public fund reforms is creating a favorable environment for investment opportunities in the Chinese equity market [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant rebound in Chinese assets, particularly in the stock market, driven by increased foreign investment and positive economic indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since May, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index have shown notable rebounds [1]. - Chinese stock ETFs listed in the U.S. have experienced substantial net inflows, indicating growing investor interest [1][3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Morgan Stanley reports that U.S. hedge funds have increased their holdings in Chinese stocks, suggesting a renewed interest in the Chinese market [5][6]. - In the week from May 6 to May 9, northbound capital saw a net inflow of 12.9 billion yuan, while flexible foreign capital had a net inflow of 5.9 billion yuan [5]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Major asset management firms, including BlackRock and Allianz, have expressed optimism about Chinese assets, citing multiple favorable factors that enhance their attractiveness [7][8]. - BlackRock's chief economist for China noted that recent economic data and policy measures are likely to boost investor confidence in Chinese assets [7]. - Allianz's research head emphasized the relative attractiveness of A-shares compared to RMB bonds, advocating for a continued overweight in equities [8].

5月12日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布，全球资本市场应声上涨。在笔者看来，随着中美经 贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，来自政策、基本面以及市场预期的三重共振将推动中国资产价值重估进入 新阶段。 其一，政策组合拳助力提升中国资产应对外部环境急剧变化的能力。 在5月7日国新办举行的新闻发布会上，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证监会三部门负责 人宣布一揽子重磅政策，涉及降准降息，推动中长期资金入市，支持科技创新、提振消费、房地产等重 点领域，释放出稳市场稳预期的强信号。同日，《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》发布，旨在形 成"回报增—资金进—市场稳"的良性循环，进一步优化资本市场生态。 "当前，我国经济回稳向好的态势不断巩固，各有关方面对外部冲击做了政策应对的充分准备，这不仅 为充满不确定性的世界经济注入更多确定性，也为我国资本市场稳定运行创造了坚实的基础和条 件。"证监会主席吴清表示。 在多重挑战之下，这套"宏观调控+微观改革+制度创新"的政策组合，既构建起中国资产抵御外部冲击 的防火墙，更将培育出价值重估的肥沃土壤。 其二，基本面韧性强化中国资产价值重估逻辑。 今年以来，大模型、低空经济、机器人、具 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Kweichow Moutai [2][10][16] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai is expected to significantly benefit from the revaluation of Chinese assets due to economic transformation, a favorable policy environment, low valuations compared to global markets, and increased capital inflows [3][4][13][14] - The company is viewed as a core asset with enhanced configuration attractiveness, supported by strategic holdings from state-owned funds and increasing public fund investments [4][14] - Kweichow Moutai demonstrates strong performance across economic cycles, with a stable growth trajectory and high dividend payouts, reinforcing shareholder returns [5][15][16] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow from Rmb 174.144 billion and Rmb 89.335 billion in 2024 to Rmb 228.087 billion and Rmb 120.373 billion by 2027, respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4% for revenue and 15.2% for net profit from 2019 to 2024 [5][11][15] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain above 91%, with a net profit margin around 50% and return on equity (ROE) around 30% [5][11][15] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to Rmb 76, Rmb 84, and Rmb 93, respectively, with a target price set at Rmb 1,972 [6][16] Market Position and Valuation - Kweichow Moutai's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 22, significantly lower than its historical average, indicating potential for valuation recovery [6][16] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 75% for 2024, providing a solid return cushion for investors [6][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Kweichow Moutai [2][10][16] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai is expected to significantly benefit from the revaluation of Chinese assets due to economic transformation, a favorable policy environment, low valuations compared to global markets, and increased capital inflows [3][4][13][14] - The company is viewed as a core asset with enhanced attractiveness for investment, supported by strong strategic holdings from state-owned funds and increasing public fund allocations [4][14] - Kweichow Moutai demonstrates strong performance stability across economic cycles, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4% for revenue and 15.2% for net profit from 2019 to 2024, alongside high dividend payouts [5][15][16] Financial Summary - Current price is Rmb1,591 with a target price of Rmb1,972, reflecting a potential upside [2][16] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are Rmb190,868 million, Rmb208,285 million, and Rmb228,087 million respectively, with net profit estimates of Rmb98,561 million, Rmb108,443 million, and Rmb120,373 million [2][11][15] - The company maintains a gross profit margin (GPM) of around 92% and a return on equity (ROE) of approximately 36% [5][11][15] Investment Thesis - The investment thesis highlights the company's high dividend payout ratio of 75% and a dividend yield of 3.5%, providing a solid return cushion [16] - The management's confidence is further demonstrated by share repurchases totaling Rmb3.039 billion, supporting the stock price [16] - The report adjusts the earnings forecast and target price due to a decrease in growth guidance from 15% to 9% for 2025, with a revised PE ratio of 26 times for 2025 [16]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock market experienced a significant rally on May 2, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rising by 1.22% and the Hang Seng Tech Index surging by 3%, marking the largest single-day gain in nearly three months [1] - Chinese concept stocks saw explosive growth in after-hours trading, with the three-times leveraged FTSE China 50 ETF (YINN) soaring nearly 7%, and major companies like XPeng, Li Auto, and Alibaba all rising over 4% [1][2] - The insurance sector also saw strong performance, with major players like China Life and New China Life leading the gains, driven by high dividend yields and favorable policy developments [3][4] Group 2: XPeng Motors Performance - XPeng Motors reported a record monthly delivery of 35,045 vehicles in April, a staggering year-on-year increase of 273% and a month-on-month rise of 6% [2] - The success of XPeng's models, particularly the MONA M03 and P7+, has significantly contributed to its market position, with the MONA M03 achieving over 100,000 deliveries in just eight months [2] - XPeng's growth is attributed to its competitive pricing and advanced technology, positioning it favorably against rivals like Tesla [2] Group 3: Insurance Sector Dynamics - The insurance sector's rally is characterized by a dual focus on high dividends and policy benefits, with companies like China Life offering a dividend yield of 6.2%, which is significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [3] - Recent regulatory guidance has encouraged insurance companies to increase their equity investments, suggesting a potential influx of capital into the stock market [3][4] - The insurance industry is viewed as a safe haven for foreign capital, especially in light of geopolitical risks and the need for stable growth assets [4] Group 4: Gold Sector Decline - In contrast to the stock market rally, gold stocks experienced a sharp decline, with companies like Tongguan Gold and Shandong Gold dropping over 4% due to fluctuations in international gold prices [5][6] - The recent volatility in gold prices, influenced by U.S. economic data and geopolitical developments, has led to a reassessment of gold as a safe-haven asset [6] - Funds are shifting from gold to riskier assets, as evidenced by the overall positive performance of the Asia-Pacific stock markets [6] Group 5: Foreign Investment Trends - The influx of foreign capital into Chinese assets is gaining momentum, with significant net inflows into the Chinese stock market reported [7][8] - Major international banks have upgraded their ratings for Chinese stocks, citing improved government policies and corporate earnings as key factors [7][8] - The current valuation of Chinese stocks is seen as attractive compared to global counterparts, with the Hang Seng Index trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 9 times [8]

Core Viewpoint - Central Huijin Company has increased its holdings in ETFs and plans to continue doing so, aiming to act similarly to a stabilizing fund to boost market confidence and valuation recovery, aligning with recent policy benefits released by the CSRC to guide long-term capital into A-share assets and enhance capital market valuations [1][2] Group 1: Central Huijin's Actions - Central Huijin's recent ETF purchases are intended to restore market confidence and support valuation recovery, acting as a marginal source of funds for A-share governance and shareholder return improvements [1] - The increase in ETF holdings is expected to inject liquidity and confidence into the market, sending a clear signal of commitment to maintaining stable capital market operations [1][2] Group 2: Historical Context and Market Stability - Historically, Central Huijin has intervened during market volatility, such as during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2011 European debt crisis, but the current context involves more complex global trade conflicts and domestic economic restructuring [2] - Central Huijin has become a key stabilizing force in the A-share market, indicating a shift towards a more normalized market stabilization mechanism [2] Group 3: Policy Synergy and Market Impact - The increase in holdings by Central Huijin, combined with recent favorable policies from the CSRC, forms a "policy combination punch" that is expected to have multiple impacts on the A-share market [2] - This collaborative policy effort is likely to attract more long-term capital into A-share assets through ETFs, enhancing market liquidity and supporting valuation recovery [2] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The consensus is that the revaluation of Chinese assets is underway, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing independent performance compared to global markets [3] - Looking ahead to Q2, the implementation of proactive fiscal policies and the advancement of AI technologies are expected to support corporate earnings, with A-shares likely to continue their steady recovery despite external uncertainties [3] - Long-term prospects suggest a potential transition from a "structural bull" market to a "full bull" market, contingent on effective macroeconomic policies to stimulate domestic demand [3]

Market Overview - After the Spring Festival and during the Two Sessions, the TMT sector led by Deepseek has initiated a "revaluation of Chinese assets" trend, supported by a relatively stable RMB exchange rate and positive policy expectations[1] - The A-share and Hong Kong technology sectors currently exhibit a high risk appetite, although adjustments have been observed since mid-March due to uncertainties surrounding the new round of "reciprocal tariffs" from the US and concerns over AI "computing power bubbles"[1] - In March, the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, and ChiNext Index recorded gains of +0.45%, -0.07%, and -3.07%, respectively[1] Policy and Economic Outlook - The 2025 Two Sessions emphasized expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption as primary objectives, with a focus on addressing low domestic inflation and external uncertainties[2] - The "Consumption Promotion Action Plan" issued on March 16 aims to enhance consumer capacity and stabilize the stock market, with expectations for new capital market policies to accelerate implementation[2] - The central bank reiterated the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts based on economic conditions[2] Investment Recommendations - Focus on large consumption and cyclical industries in Q2, particularly those showing signs of recovery or strong performance[3] - Continue to monitor defensive sectors such as banking and dividend stocks due to external uncertainties[4] - The long-term trend for AI remains positive, with significant investment from major domestic companies, presenting potential short-term investment opportunities during market corrections[5] Selected Stock Portfolio - The recommended portfolio includes stocks from various sectors: China Mobile, Hongri Da, Lu Wei Optoelectronics, Sinovac Biotech, and others, covering telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and non-bank financials[5]