怎么量化利差损风险？如何给保险估值？ ——保险基本面梳理107 长江证券研究所非银研究小组 2025-06-19 %% %% %% %% 分析师 吴一凡 分析师 谢宇尘 SAC执业证书编号：S0490519080007 SAC执业证书编号：S0490521020001 SFC执业证书编号：BUV596 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 •证券研究报告• 评级 看好 维持 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 如何判断利差损风险？ 02 如何给估值？ 目录 %% research.95579.com 3 research.95579.com 1 01 如何判断利差损风险？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 01 上市头部负债成本正在改善 2024年负债成本在上升吗？ ➢ 上市险企可以使用价值敏感性数据测算打平收益率，代表负债成本。 ➢ 2024年，国寿、太保、新华新单负债成本分别同比改善53bp、52bp和94bp。 ➢ 结论：上市险企新单负债成本正在改善。 测算新单负债成本 测算存量负债成本 2017H 2017 2018H 2018 2019H ...

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory body has issued guidelines to insurance companies to ensure sustainable dividend levels for participating insurance products, preventing excessive competition that could harm the industry's long-term health [1][2][3]. Regulatory Guidelines - The recent regulatory opinion emphasizes that insurance companies must carefully determine annual dividend levels based on actual asset-liability and investment income situations, avoiding arbitrary increases that lead to "involution" competition [1][2]. - Six specific scenarios have been outlined where insurance companies must justify the necessity, reasonableness, and sustainability of proposed dividend levels before implementation [3]. Industry Context - In a low-interest-rate environment, participating insurance products have become a focal point for insurance companies, but the sales difficulty and competition remain high [2]. - The regulatory opinion aims to prevent short-term consumer attraction through inflated dividends, which poses long-term sustainability challenges for products [2]. Financial Metrics - The average financial investment return for the past three years in the life insurance sector is 3.20%, which serves as a benchmark for evaluating proposed dividend levels [3]. - The regulatory body will enhance data monitoring and impose penalties for non-compliance, including regulatory interviews and score deductions [3]. Cost Management - The regulatory opinion continues the trend of reducing liability costs to mitigate interest rate risk, with previous adjustments allowing for lower guaranteed rates on universal insurance products [4]. - Major companies have already begun to lower the dividend realization rates for participating insurance products since last year, with specific caps set for different company sizes [4]. Future Projections - The average monthly pressure on the predetermined interest rate research value is approximately 4 basis points, with expectations of further declines in the coming months [6]. - A recent product launch by a joint venture life insurance company has introduced a participating product with a predetermined interest rate of 1.5%, marking a significant shift in the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformation of China Ping An from a traditional insurance provider to a comprehensive financial and healthcare service provider, driven by the integration of "comprehensive finance + healthcare and elderly care" solutions to meet the evolving needs of customers throughout their life cycle [1][21][46]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Since May, many insurance companies have begun to phase out old products in preparation for the launch of products with lower preset interest rates [2]. - The yield on the 10-year government bond, a key benchmark for insurance returns, has been on a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of 88 basis points in 2024 and dropping below 1.6% in 2025 [3]. - This trend has put continuous pressure on the yields of fixed-income assets, making it difficult for the insurance industry to effectively cover liability costs [4]. Group 2: Company Strategy - China Ping An recognized the need for transformation in the life insurance sector as it entered a challenging phase, moving away from reliance on interest rate spreads and adopting a new growth model [7][11]. - The company has been proactive in reforming its business model since 2019, focusing on restructuring its development logic to align with changing market demands [13][14]. - The number of insurance agents has declined significantly since 2019, with over 6 million agents lost by 2024, leading to a continuous drop in new premium income [16][17]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The demand for healthcare services is expected to surge in 2025, driven by reforms in medical insurance payment systems, highlighting the need for high-quality medical services [31]. - In the first quarter of 2025, health insurance premium income reached 378.2 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.85%, indicating a strong market potential [32]. - China Ping An has developed a comprehensive healthcare ecosystem, integrating various services to meet diverse medical and health management needs [34][37]. Group 4: Financial Performance - China Ping An's health management platform, Ping An Good Doctor, has achieved significant growth, with a revenue of 1.06 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.8% [36]. - The company has maintained a stable dividend policy, with cumulative cash dividends exceeding 400 billion yuan by the end of 2024, and a dividend per share of 2.55 yuan, showcasing its commitment to shareholder returns [55][56]. - The company's operating profit and cash flow support its robust dividend policy, emphasizing its focus on long-term value creation for shareholders [56][57].

Core Insights - The Chinese insurance industry is transitioning towards high-quality development by 2025, focusing on modern "ecological services" rather than traditional "risk compensation" [2] - The implementation of new policies is driving changes in the industry, including the rise of floating income products, enhanced service models, and significant technological advancements [2] Market Trends - The recent reduction in deposit rates has led to increased interest in savings-type insurance products, which are seen as attractive alternatives for asset allocation [3][4] - Approximately 57% of consumers are now using insurance for wealth management, making it the second-largest investment channel after bank wealth management [3][4] Consumer Behavior - Nearly 30% of consumers have increased their investment in savings insurance, with the highest growth seen in the 41-50 age group [4] - The demand for savings-type life insurance is driven by low-risk preferences and the need for stable returns in a declining interest rate environment [4][5] Product Characteristics - Savings-type insurance combines insurance and savings functions, including products like annuities and increasing death benefit life insurance [5][6] - Key differences between savings insurance and bank deposits include product nature, return structure, liquidity, and risk coverage [5][6] Industry Impact - The ongoing decline in deposit rates is expected to boost short-term sales of savings-type insurance products, but it also increases the long-term risk of interest rate spread losses for insurance companies [7][8] - Regulatory measures have been introduced to adjust the maximum guaranteed interest rates for various insurance products, linking them to market interest rates [8][9] Consumer Guidance - Consumers are advised to carefully evaluate their needs and risk tolerance before purchasing savings-type insurance, as these products require long-term commitment and may involve penalties for early withdrawal [10] - Understanding the differences between guaranteed and actual returns, as well as the complexities of product terms, is crucial for informed decision-making [10]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in mainstream bank deposit rates has led to a surge in interest for savings-type insurance products, which offer both protection and value appreciation [2][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - Bank deposit rates have entered a "1" era, with significant reductions observed in recent months, marking the seventh cut by major state-owned banks since September 2022 [3][4]. - In the first quarter of this year, nearly 40% of new life insurance products launched were dividend-type and universal-type products, indicating a shift in consumer preference [12]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - A report indicates that nearly 30% of consumers increased their investment in savings insurance in 2024, with the 41-50 age group showing an 18% increase in new insurance purchases, becoming the main force in this trend [8][12]. - The growth of savings-type insurance is attributed to its unique "dual protection" feature, appealing to consumers seeking both safety for their principal and inflation protection [6][8]. Group 3: Insurance Industry Performance - The original insurance premium income in China's insurance industry has shown consistent growth over the past three years, with a projected income of approximately 5.7 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 11.15% year-on-year increase [5][11]. - Life insurance premium income is expected to reach 3.19 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 15.45% increase compared to the previous year [5]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - To mitigate the risk of interest rate spread losses, regulatory authorities have lowered the upper limit of the predetermined interest rate for life insurance products and established a dynamic adjustment mechanism linked to market rates [10][11]. - The upper limit for new ordinary life insurance products is set at 2.5%, while for dividend-type products, it is 2%, and for universal-type products, it is 1.5% [11]. Group 5: Product Development - The insurance industry is increasingly focusing on floating yield products, with dividend insurance becoming a mainstream offering. In the first quarter, nearly 40% of new life insurance products were dividend-type and universal-type [12][13]. - Major insurance companies are planning to enhance their offerings of dividend-type products, with executives expressing confidence in delivering returns that exceed market averages [12][14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the downward adjustment of deposit rates in China has led to a significant increase in life insurance premium income, with life insurance premium income reaching 3.19 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 15.45%, surpassing the overall industry growth rate [3][4] - The attractiveness of savings-type life insurance products has increased as the value preservation and appreciation attributes of bank deposits have weakened, making insurance products a "safe haven" for residents' savings [3][4] - The low interest rate environment presents a double-edged sword for the insurance industry, benefiting short-term sales of savings insurance but increasing the risk of interest spread losses in the long term [3][4] Group 2 - Insurance companies are changing their product strategies by increasing the supply of floating income products, with nearly 40% of life insurance being dividend and universal products in the first quarter of this year [4] - The industry is expected to shift from "savings replacement" to a focus on "risk protection + long-term financial planning," emphasizing the risk protection function of products [4] - Insurance companies are gradually transitioning to risk management services, which may become less sensitive to interest rate fluctuations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in deposit interest rates since April 2022 has significantly increased the attractiveness of savings-type life insurance products, leading to continuous growth in life insurance premium income in China, with accelerating growth rates observed since 2022 [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Deposit Rate Changes - The People's Bank of China established a market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit rates, leading to multiple reductions in deposit rates by major banks since September 2022, with the latest adjustments bringing one-year fixed deposit rates below 1% [2][4]. - As of May 20, 2023, the seventh reduction in deposit rates was implemented, with significant cuts in both current and fixed deposit rates across major banks [2]. Life Insurance Premium Growth - Life insurance premium income has shown consistent growth since 2022, with the industry achieving approximately 5.7 trillion yuan in original insurance premium income in 2024, reflecting an 11.15% year-on-year increase, while life insurance specifically saw a 15.45% increase [4][5]. - The demand for savings-type life insurance products has surged due to the declining deposit rates, as consumers seek stable long-term returns amidst low-risk preferences [5][6]. Product Strategy Adjustments - Insurance companies are shifting their product strategies to focus on floating yield products, such as dividend and universal life insurance, to mitigate the impact of declining interest rates and reduce reliance on traditional fixed-income products [12][13]. - The introduction of over 170 new life insurance products in the first quarter of the year, with a significant proportion being floating yield products, indicates a strategic pivot in response to the low interest rate environment [11][12]. Risk Management Focus - The insurance industry is gradually transitioning from a model focused on premium growth to one centered on risk management services, which are less sensitive to interest rate fluctuations [14][15]. - This transformation aims to enhance the risk management capabilities of insurance products, encouraging consumers to view insurance as a tool for risk management rather than merely a savings alternative [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility in the market, particularly focusing on the recent fluctuations in the stock of ZhongAn Online, which surged by 30% before experiencing a significant drop of around 15% the following day. This highlights the unpredictable nature of hot investment topics like stablecoins and the impact of market sentiment on stock performance [1]. Market Updates - The market experienced a downturn, reversing the gains from the previous day, with no significant news apart from the announcement regarding the upcoming Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai, scheduled for June 18-19, 2025, where major financial policies are expected to be announced [3][20]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose over 10% since the last Lujiazui Forum, indicating a positive market response to previous policy announcements [3]. Policy Directions from Previous Forums - Key policy directions from the last year's forum included: 1. Reforming the sales system and promoting the integration of reporting and operations in the banking and insurance sectors, leading to a significant decrease in marketing costs and an increase in new business value for insurance companies [7][8]. 2. Adjusting the pricing mechanism for insurance products to mitigate risks associated with interest rate differentials, with a notable increase in dividend insurance premiums for the first time in five years [8]. 3. Exploring pilot investments of insurance funds in gold contracts, which has been implemented this year [9]. Financial Regulatory Insights - The central bank emphasized the need for quality over quantity in financial institution growth, leading to a shift in focus from scale to shareholder returns and dividend ratios [11]. - The introduction of new measures for M1 statistics and the establishment of a primary policy interest rate through the 7-day reverse repurchase rate have been implemented [12]. - The central bank's commitment to maintaining currency stability has resulted in a strong performance of the RMB against the USD, with a significant reduction in the trade deficit [14]. Anticipated Developments - Expectations for the upcoming forum include updates on previously mentioned policies and new initiatives such as: 1. Expansion of pilot programs for long-term insurance fund investments, which could become a core source of capital for the stock market [20]. 2. A potential decrease in preset interest rates for insurance products, with a focus on the implementation of pricing mechanisms [20]. 3. Monitoring the progress of bank and insurance institution asset management product disclosure regulations, which are crucial for the development of bank wealth management [20]. 4. Continued attention on the merger of rural commercial banks and the implications for the banking sector [20]. 5. The impact of new regulations on IPO financing for technology companies and the implementation of merger and acquisition rules [20].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is facing significant challenges due to the decline in LPR and bank deposit rates, necessitating a shift from a "spread-dependent" model to a "three-spread balance" approach to mitigate interest spread loss risks [1][2][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Impact - The decline in interest rates is a critical factor affecting the insurance industry, particularly life insurance, as it compresses new investment income [1] - The upper limit of the preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has decreased from 4.025% to 2.5%, with a substantial number of high preset rate policies still in force [1] - The insurance industry must prevent interest spread loss risks to maintain operational stability and avoid systemic risks [1] Group 2: Three-Spread Balance Model - The key to risk management in the new market environment is constructing a "three-spread balance" profit model, focusing on interest spread, mortality spread, and expense spread [2] - Insurers need to transition from high-guarantee products to "low-guarantee + high-floating" products to stabilize interest spreads [2] - Dynamic pricing mechanisms linked to government bond yields or LPR should be introduced to mitigate cost-locking risks [2] Group 3: Enhancing Mortality and Expense Spreads - Increasing contributions from mortality and expense spreads is essential for insurers in a low-interest-rate environment [3] - Insurers should enhance the sales of health and term life insurance products and optimize pricing assumptions using more accurate mortality and annuity tables [3] - Cost control measures must be strictly implemented, including organizational optimization and digital transformation to reduce operational costs [3] Group 4: Opportunities in Challenges - The low-interest-rate environment presents both challenges and opportunities for insurers to reshape competitive advantages [3] - Insurers must abandon the "scale-first" development model and focus on product innovation, asset allocation optimization, and expense management to achieve sustainable development [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and bank deposit rates is expected to lead to a significant decrease in insurance product preset rates in the third quarter of this year, prompting insurance companies to adapt their strategies for stable operations in a low-interest environment [1][2][3]. Rate Adjustment Expectations - The insurance industry is closely monitoring market interest rate changes due to the establishment of a mechanism linking insurance product preset rates to market rates. The likelihood of preset rate reductions in the third quarter is considered high [2]. - The maximum preset rate for newly filed ordinary insurance products will be capped at 2.5% starting September 1, 2024, with further reductions for dividend and universal insurance products [2]. - The preset rate research values for ordinary life insurance products were reported at 2.34% and 2.13% on January 10 and April 21, respectively, indicating a downward trend [3]. Industry Response to Rate Changes - Insurance companies are actively promoting product sales while preparing new products to mitigate the impact of potential preset rate reductions. This proactive approach aims to enhance sales conversion rates before any price increases or yield decreases occur [4]. - In the first quarter of this year, the total insurance premium income for life insurance companies was approximately 1.66 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, with life insurance premiums decreasing by nearly 1% [4]. Future Outlook - Expectations for further reductions in preset rates are rising, leading insurance companies to strengthen their sales efforts. Despite fluctuations in market rates, demand for protection products, particularly health insurance, remains stable [5]. - To address the narrowing profit margins in the life insurance sector, companies are encouraged to focus on developing floating yield insurance and innovative non-interest-sensitive products [5][6].