Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming "central bank super week," highlighting the anticipated interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England, with a focus on the potential for rate cuts due to economic conditions [3]. Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold a monetary policy meeting on September 16-17, with market expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [5][6]. - Recent data shows a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 0.4% in August, indicating persistent inflation, while weekly jobless claims have increased to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years [5]. - Analysts predict that the Fed will prioritize labor market weakness over inflation concerns, with expectations of three rate cuts this year, starting in September [6][7]. - The Fed's approach is characterized as gradual, with a focus on assessing the impacts of tariffs and fiscal policies on inflation and labor supply [7]. Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate of 0.5% during its meeting on September 19, despite recent trade agreements with the U.S. [8][9]. - Political uncertainty following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may influence the Bank's future monetary policy decisions [8]. - Market expectations for a rate hike in October have decreased, with a high probability (98%) that the BOJ will keep rates unchanged [9]. Bank of England - The Bank of England's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was contentious, reflecting concerns over medium-term inflation pressures [9][10]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including unemployment rates and CPI, will provide further insights into the UK's economic health and the Bank's policy direction [10]. - The BOE's deputy governor indicated that while current rates may not be at neutral levels, further easing could risk reversing policy direction later [10]. Bank of Canada - The Bank of Canada is anticipated to resume rate cuts on September 17, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, driven by rising unemployment and GDP contraction [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that the Bank will adopt a cautious approach, potentially cutting rates twice in the coming months due to economic pressures [11].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing increased activity as it enters a seasonal sales peak, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut due to signs of a weak labor market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of September 15, spot gold is trading around $3628 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.26% last week, closing at $3643.21 per ounce, just below the peak of $3674 earlier in the week [2]. - Analysts remain bullish on gold, with some institutions predicting prices could rise above $3900 per ounce in the future [3]. - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for gold prices, with expectations of a dovish signal potentially pushing prices higher [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold shows a consolidation phase, with key support levels at $3600 and $3500. A drop below these levels could indicate a shift in market sentiment [4][6]. - Current trading ranges are identified between $3615 and $3660, with expectations of limited movement until the Federal Reserve's decision [6]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest buying on dips around $3620 and selling on rebounds near $3657-3660, with strict stop-loss measures recommended [6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The labor market's weakness is reinforcing expectations for a rate cut, which is expected to lower real interest rates and diminish the dollar's appeal, further supporting gold's value [3]. - The upcoming release of key economic data, including U.S. retail sales, is also crucial for market sentiment and gold price movements [2].

Report Title - Research on precious metals futures including gold and silver [1] Core View - The report focuses on the price, trading volume, position, ETF holdings, inventory, spreads, and trend strength of gold and silver futures, as well as related macro and industry news [1][2][5] Key Points by Section 1. Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Price**: - Gold: Shanghai Gold 2510 closed at 834.22 with a daily increase of 0.41%, and its night - session closed at 834.00 with a 0.39% increase; Comex Gold 2510 closed at 3680.70 with a 0.20% increase; London Gold Spot closed at 3642.37 with a 0.30% increase [2] - Silver: Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 10035 with a 2.42% increase, and its night - session closed at 10051.00 with a 1.22% increase; Comex Silver 2510 closed at 42.680 with a 1.46% increase; London Silver Spot closed at 42.165 with a 1.56% increase [2] - **Trading Volume and Position**: - Gold: Shanghai Gold 2510 contract trading volume was 170,217, an increase of 4,857 from the previous day, and the position was 109,267, a decrease of 5,156; Comex Gold 2510 trading volume was 147,566, a decrease of 59,573, and the position was 385,713, an increase of 230 [2] - Silver: Shanghai Silver 2510 trading volume was 628,438, an increase of 326,453, and the position was 219,328, an increase of 15,985; Comex Silver 2510 trading volume was 70,339, an increase of 11,255, and the position was 133,690, unchanged [2] - **ETF Holdings**: - SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 974.80, a decrease of 3; SLV Silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) were 15,059.74, a decrease of 8 [2] - **Inventory**: - Gold: Shanghai Gold inventory was 52,950 kg, an increase of 2,799; Comex Gold inventory (the day before yesterday) was 38,912,305 troy ounces, unchanged [2] - Silver: Shanghai Silver inventory was 1,246,569 kg, an increase of 6382; Comex Silver inventory (the day before yesterday) was 524,513,404 troy ounces, an increase of 1,384,668 [2] - **Spreads**: - Gold: The spread between Gold T + D and AU251 was - 3.88, unchanged; the cost of the spread arbitrage of buying December and selling June of Shanghai Gold was 4.77, a decrease of 0.87; the spread between Gold T + D and London Gold was 449.67, a decrease of 5.61 [2] - Silver: The spread between Silver T + D and AG2510 was 26, an increase of 14; the cost of the spread arbitrage of buying December and selling June of Shanghai Silver was 73.41, a decrease of 11.3; the spread between Silver T + D and London Silver was 5,155, a decrease of 973 [2] - **Exchange Rates**: - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.12, a decrease of 0.01%; the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1.17, unchanged; the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen was 147.86, an increase of 0.05; the exchange rate of the British pound against the US dollar was 1.21, unchanged [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - China and the US held talks on economic and trade issues in Spain, emphasizing the importance of equality and mutual benefit [2][4] - China's Ministry of Commerce launched an anti - discrimination investigation into US measures in the integrated circuit field [6] - China's new social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, new loans were 590 billion yuan, the new lending rate for enterprises remained at a historical low, and the M2 - M1 gap hit a four - year low [6] - Multiple central banks, including the Fed, Canada, the UK, and Japan, will announce interest rate decisions [6] - US consumer confidence hit a four - month low, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut this week [6] - The US government is facing a "shutdown" crisis [6] - The UK and the US will sign a "breakthrough" technology agreement [6] 3. Trend Strength - Gold trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view; silver trend strength is also 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. and China began discussions in Madrid on September 14, focusing on unilateral tariffs, export controls, and issues related to TikTok [1] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on September 15 to discuss the national economic performance for August [1] - The People's Bank of China reported that in the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the total social financing increased by 26.56 trillion yuan [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported simulation chips from the U.S. and initiated an anti-discrimination investigation regarding U.S. measures in the integrated circuit sector [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a work plan for the automotive industry, aiming for annual vehicle sales of approximately 32.3 million units by 2025, with new energy vehicle sales targeted at around 15.5 million units [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 18 [3] Group 4 - Huibo Yuntong announced a share transfer agreement to acquire a total of 32.0875% of Baode Computing for a total transaction price of 1.444 billion yuan [4] - Jushen Co. reported a stock price fluctuation exceeding 20% over three consecutive trading days, with plans to reduce repurchased shares [4] - Dashi Intelligent signed a project contract worth 23.869 million yuan for a smart project with Xiaomi, representing 0.75% of the company's audited revenue for 2024 [5] - Colin Electric plans to raise no more than 1.5 billion yuan through a private placement to supplement working capital [5] - Wanda Information's shareholder Harmony Health Insurance plans to reduce its stake by up to 4.32189 million shares, accounting for 3% of the total share capital [5] - Yongyue Technology's actual controller is under bail pending trial for alleged information disclosure violations, but the company's operations remain normal [5] Group 5 - CITIC Securities highlighted that the current market trend is largely related to overseas expansion, suggesting a focus on resources, new productive forces, and global exposure in investment strategies [6]

全球金融市场即将迎来一个"央行超级周"， 一场密集的利率决策风暴将在约36小时内席卷全球。 从美联储到日本央行，多家主要央行将相继公布利率决议，其政策走向将为全球经济的最后季度定下基调，并直接影响着全球半数交易最活跃的货币。 备受瞩目的焦点是美联储， 市场普遍预期其将宣布自特朗普第二任期以来的首次降息。 在美联储做出决定前， 周二公布的美国零售销售数据将是最后的重要参考。 经济学家预测8月零售额增长0.3%。在劳动力市场不稳和物价上涨的背景下，消费 者的持续消费能力存有疑问。 此外，周四的失业救济申请数据将揭示上周的就业数据跳升是暂时现象还是市场持续恶化的前兆。 长期以来，白宫一直敦促降低借贷成本，而美联储主席鲍威尔则对关税驱动的通胀保持警惕。 然而，近期劳动力市场的疲软迹象，为降息亮起了绿灯，多数经 济学家预计降息幅度为25个基点。 紧随其后，加拿大央行也预计将采取降息行动。而英格兰银行在8月出现罕见的三方意见分歧后，此次可能维持利率不变。周期的尾声将由日本央行画上句 号，该行虽有紧缩倾向，但预计短期内不会采取行动。 这些决策将对占全球经济总量五分之二的经济体产生影响，包括七国集团（G7）中的四个国家。 对 ...

Market Events Overview - The People's Bank of China will have a total of 12,645 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing next week, with specific maturities throughout the week [1] - A total of 47 companies will have lock-up shares released next week, amounting to 3.073 billion shares with a total market value of 79.75 billion yuan based on the closing price on September 12 [2] - Four new stocks are set to be issued next week, with a total of approximately 413 million shares expected to raise 7.645 billion yuan [2] Economic Data Releases - Key economic indicators to be released include China's August retail sales, industrial output, and fixed asset investment data on September 15 [1] - The global payment share of the Chinese yuan in August will be announced on September 18 [2] - Various international economic data will be released throughout the week, including the U.S. retail sales and unemployment rate, as well as the Eurozone inflation data [3][4] Central Bank Decisions - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with market focus shifting to future rate paths and economic forecasts [3][4] - Other central banks, including those of Indonesia, Canada, Brazil, and the UK, will also announce their rate decisions, with varying expectations based on recent inflation data [4] Legislative and Regulatory Developments - New housing rental regulations in China will take effect on September 15, aimed at improving contract management and clarifying responsibilities [5] - The "Rural Road Regulations" will also come into effect on September 15, establishing a comprehensive system for rural road management [5] - The Hong Kong Legislative Council has passed a bill allowing electronic display of driver's licenses, effective September 15 [6]

全球金融市场即将迎来一个"央行超级周"，一场密集的利率决策风暴将在约36小时内席卷全球。从美联 储到日本央行，多家主要央行将相继公布利率决议，其政策走向将为全球经济的最后季度定下基调，并 直接影响着全球半数交易最活跃的货币。 备受瞩目的焦点是美联储，市场普遍预期其将宣布自特朗普第二任期以来的首次降息。长期以来，白宫 一直敦促降低借贷成本，而美联储主席鲍威尔则对关税驱动的通胀保持警惕。然而，近期劳动力市场的 疲软迹象，为降息亮起了绿灯，多数经济学家预计降息幅度为25个基点。 紧随其后，加拿大央行也预计将采取降息行动。而英格兰银行在8月出现罕见的三方意见分歧后，此次 可能维持利率不变。周期的尾声将由日本央行画上句号，该行虽有紧缩倾向，但预计短期内不会采取行 动。 这些决策将对占全球经济总量五分之二的经济体产生影响，包括七国集团（G7）中的四个国家。对于 投资者和交易员而言，这无疑将是一段需要高度关注的紧张时期，市场波动性可能显著加剧。 焦点：美联储降息与白宫的博弈 本周最核心的事件无疑是美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的利率决议。市场经济学家普遍预测，美 联储将宣布降息25个基点。 这一决定是在复杂的背景下做出 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Senate plans to hold a full vote on September 15 regarding Trump's nomination of Stephen Milan to the Federal Reserve Board [1] - If confirmed, Milan will join the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee and participate in future interest rate decision votes [1]

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇9月12日｜美国参议院为美联储理事提名人米兰参加下周的美联储会议敞开大门，根据共和党领 袖制定的参议院时间表，下一步是参议院全体成员投票确认其提名，投票定于下周一晚间（北京时间周 二早晨）举行。议员们将首先进行程序性投票，如果获得批准，将为共和党占多数的参议院确认米兰的 任命扫清道路。美联储将于当地时间下周二开始为期两天的会议，周三就利率决议进行投票。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行(ECB)周四维持基准利率不变，并释放出鹰派信号，促使市场交易员押注 其降息周期或已结束。这一转变推动欧元汇率反弹，并引发欧债，尤其是短端债券的显著抛售。 周四决议公布后，欧元兑美元一度上涨0.4%至1.1739美元；德国两年期国债收益率最多上升5个基点至 接近2%，创下4月以来新高。Mizuho EMEA宏观策略主管Jordan Rochester表示："今天是欧洲央行鹰派 的日子，我不会去逆势做空。" 在此次利率决议前，货币市场仍预计2026年年中可能还有一次25个基点的降息，但在欧洲央行释放鹰派 立场后，交易员已将全年维持利率不变作为主要预期。目前，市场隐含概率显示，明年中前再降息一次 的可能性已从60%以上骤降至不足50%。 Aviva Investors利率主管Ed Hutchings指出："如果欧洲央行已经触及终点利率，2026年将更值得关注， 投资者甚至会开始思考下一次加息何时出现。" 目前，欧洲央行已将关键存款利率从2024年中4%的峰值降至当前2%。此次是连续第二次维持利率不 变。央行最新预测显示，2025年通胀均值为2.1%，2026年为1.7%，2027年为1 ...