Report Date - The report is dated July 30, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend short, oscillatory, oscillatory long, and trend long views for different futures varieties such as zinc, crude oil, and fuel oil [4] - Based on quantitative indicators, there are bearish, oscillatory, and bullish views for different futures varieties such as corn, palm oil, and Shanghai copper [5] - A series of macro - economic events and policies are expected to impact the market, including Sino - US economic and trade talks, IMF's economic outlook adjustments, and US political statements [8][9] Summary by Categories Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Focus on the support of the 5 - day moving average. If not broken, the trend continues. A - shares rose on Tuesday, and the market style rotates. Pay attention to the movement of stop - profit funds [11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term prices are suppressed by the 5 - day moving average. Consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration using treasury bond futures. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting's stance on inflation [12] Black (Steel and Minerals) - **Steel and Minerals**: Central anti - involution policies increase the expectation of boosting inflation through the supply side. Currently in the seasonal off - season, the market shows off - season strength. Demand may weaken seasonally, but the spot - futures arbitrage is active. Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel prices are expected to rebound in the short - term but with limited space, and oscillate in the medium - term [13][14] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may enter a high - level oscillatory stage. Coal mine production is strictly checked, and steel mills' profits are good. However, there is a possibility of a decline in steel mills' molten iron production, and imported Mongolian coal may put pressure on prices [16] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese may weaken marginally. Short - term operation requires intraday trading skills, and it is not recommended to chase highs or lows [17] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, short on rallies and stop loss flexibly if the positive feedback returns. For glass, close long positions at low levels and then wait and see. The supply - demand pattern of soda ash has not improved significantly, and glass needs to digest speculative inventory [18][19] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at high levels due to weak downstream demand in the off - season. Alumina prices are in a high - volatility stage, and short - term policy influence is expected to be short - lived. Supply - demand is expected to be loose [21] - **Shanghai Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase while downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices will oscillate downward [22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side disruptions have limited impact, and the market is expected to oscillate without further news of production cuts [23] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of leading manufacturers is uncertain, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. The market is expected to oscillate, and the core issue is the resumption of production of leading manufacturers [24] - **Polysilicon**: The market is trading based on policy expectations, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The upside space of the futures price depends on actual policies and warehouse receipt generation [25][26] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Prices are oscillating under pressure. Long - term short positions on rallies are recommended. Global and US cotton production and ending stocks are expected to increase, and overall demand is weaker than last year [28][29] - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar imports. The market is expected to oscillate under pressure, and the international sugar market is expected to have a surplus [31][32] - **Eggs**: Entering the seasonal rising stage, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the short 09 and long 01 spread [35] - **Apples**: Light - position positive spreads are recommended. Pay attention to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [36] - **Corn**: Prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Policy support strengthens the price floor, but wheat substitution and imported corn may suppress prices [36][37] - **Red Dates**: It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation in the production area and weather changes [38][39] - **Pigs**: Short - term supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 1/3 - 5 spread [40] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market may shift to a supply - surplus pattern. In the short - term, prices may rebound due to concerns about sanctions on Russia. Long - term factors include Sino - US trade negotiations and the realization of peak - season demand [42] - **Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. The market is affected by the peak power - generation demand in the Middle East, weak shipping, and crude oil's diversion of fuel oil demand [43] - **Plastics**: The supply - demand situation is weak. The market may oscillate weakly after a short - term emotional rebound. It is recommended to be cautious about callbacks [44] - **Rubber**: Short - term prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. It is recommended to observe the supply of raw materials and market sentiment [45] - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly, following the overall commodity market. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [46] - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are relatively healthy. If there are warehouse receipts, the spot and futures market may be strong in the short - term [47] - **Asphalt**: It follows crude oil prices. The fundamentals are in the off - season, and production is expected to decrease in August, leading to inventory reduction [48][49] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. Wait for short - selling opportunities. PX supply - demand is stable, PTA supply contracts slightly, and ethylene glycol imports are expected to increase [50] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the medium - to long - term. Prices are likely to fall [51] - **Paper Pulp**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly with limited amplitude. Observe port inventory reduction and spot trading improvement [52] - **Logs**: The spot price is raised, and the futures price follows. Be cautious about chasing highs and pay attention to the basis [52] - **Urea**: Maintain a bullish view as the improvement in low - price spot trading affects the futures market [53]

Group 1: Company Performance - Novo Nordisk's stock price opened significantly lower, dropping over 21% as of the report time, while Eli Lilly's stock fell nearly 6% [6][8]. - Novo Nordisk revised its full-year sales and profit guidance downwards, citing weak growth expectations for its flagship weight loss drug Wegovy in the critical U.S. market [9]. Group 2: Financial Forecasts - The company now expects sales growth (at constant exchange rates) to be between 8% and 14%, down from a previous target of 13% to 21%. Operating profit growth is now projected at 10% to 16%, compared to earlier expectations of 21% and 24% [9]. - The downward revision is attributed to competition faced by Wegovy and its sister diabetes drug Ozempic, as well as the presence of cheaper generic versions of Wegovy in the U.S. market [9]. Group 3: Management Changes - Novo Nordisk announced that Maziar Mike Doustdar will replace Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen as the new CEO, following Jorgensen's unexpected removal in May [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading agreements are reached in batches, the risk - aversion demand continues to decline, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases. Strong employment and inflation suppress the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and slightly weaker. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.24%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.33% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreements reduce risk - aversion demand, and the US economic stagflation risk and strong employment and inflation suppress interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Risk - aversion**: Sino - US trade talks and US - EU agreement reduce trade risks [1]. - **Monetary**: The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this month. The market expects the next Fed rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under upward pressure [1]. - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the weak RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - **Data**: Various gold - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, etc. are provided. For example, Comex gold main contract closed at $3314.00 per ounce, down 0.73% from the previous day [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of Shanghai gold among futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [4]. - **Fund and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again, and the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [4]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [5]. - **Data**: Various silver - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc. are provided. For example, Comex silver main contract closed at $38.33 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous day [5]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of Shanghai silver among futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **US Monetary Policy**: Federal fund target rate upper limit, discount rate, reserve balance interest rate, etc. have changed. The Fed's total assets are $67089.39 billion, down $16.72 billion from the previous period [7]. - **Inflation Data**: US inflation data such as CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, etc. show certain changes. For example, the year - on - year CPI is 2.70%, up 0.30 percentage points from the previous period [9]. - **Economic Growth**: US economic growth data such as GDP, unemployment rate, non - farm employment, etc. are presented. GDP's annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, down 1.00 percentage points from the previous period [9]. - **Other Data**: Data on various aspects such as international trade, central bank gold reserves, and risk - aversion and commodity - related indexes are provided [9][10]. - **Interest Rate Expectation**: The latest Fed interest rate expectations based on the CME FedWatch tool are given, showing the probability distribution of different interest - rate ranges at different meeting dates from 2025 to 2026 [11].

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特朗普宣布达成贸易协议！本周利率决议落地！更多主流品种如何分析？TTPS交易学长正在直播，立 即观看！ 相关链接 黄金行情讲解中 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent trade agreements between the US and Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, highlighting the reduction of tariffs and Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in key industries [51][52] - The article notes that developed markets have generally seen an increase, with the Nikkei 225 rising by 4.1% and the S&P 500 by 1.5% [4][80] - The article mentions the fluctuations in commodity prices, with WTI crude oil decreasing by 3.2% to $65.2 per barrel, while coking coal prices surged by 36.0% to 1259 yuan per ton [37][38] Group 2 - The article reports that the US Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in July, below the expected 52.7, indicating ongoing disruptions in US industrial production due to tariffs [66][81] - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates during its July meeting, aligning with market expectations as inflation returned to target levels [69][81] - The article highlights the mixed performance of emerging market 10-year government bond yields, with Turkey's yield rising significantly by 177.5 basis points to 31.6% [20]

贵金属周报 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月28日 南华期货贵金属周报：倒V反转 剧烈波动 【盘面回顾】上周贵金属市场整体冲高回落，呈现倒V走势。COMEX黄金非商业多头持仓在截至7月22日当 周激增，以及美国黄金白银ETF的大量流入，引发价格在前半周激涨，其背景可能是受美国贸易关税谈判于8 月1日截止日前的不确定性，以及美联储方面，政府对美联储干预促使美联储独立性原则下的鹰向鸽转变预 期，此外周初日本执政联盟在参议院选举中遭遇历史性失败。 然而周三起盘面逆转，贵金属掉头直下。一方 面，美国关税贸易战趋缓提升市场风险偏好，提振美股走高并短期压制贵金属价格，特朗普通过社交媒体宣 布美国与日本达成贸易协议，对日关税税率为15%及日本5500亿美元对美投资；媒体称欧美接近达成协议、 美将对欧盟征15%关税。 另一方面，国内反内卷政策下，大宗商品与股市普涨，引发资金从传统避险资金流 出，国内黄金ETF于上周持续流出。 接下来市场焦点聚焦于周四美联储FOMC会议，以及周内周四美7月PCE 数据、周五美非农就业报告。 【资金与库存】长线基金持仓看， ...

Key Points Summary 1. This Week's Key Focus - From July 27th to 30th, Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden [2][3] - On July 30th at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the initial value of the US Q2 GDP [2][10] - On July 31st at 02:00, the Fed will announce its interest - rate decision, expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged [2][13] - On July 31st at 09:30, China will release July's official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI [2][14] - On July 31st at 20:30, the US will release the June PCE price index [2][18] - On August 1st at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July non - farm payrolls report [2][23] 2. This Week's Hotspot Preview July 28th - The third round of China - US economic and trade talks is held. The outcome may impact relevant futures prices, with August 12th being the deadline for the suspension of additional tariffs [3] July 29th - The US Conference Board will release the July consumer confidence index at 22:00. An index higher than the previous value (expected 95.9, previous 93) will help non - ferrous metal futures rise but suppress gold and silver futures [4] July 30th - Germany will release the initial value of Q2 GDP at 16:00. An expected quarter - on - quarter rate of - 0.1% (previous 0.4%) may slightly suppress non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures but help gold and silver futures [6] - The Eurozone will release the initial value of Q2 GDP at 17:00. Expected quarter - on - quarter rate of 0% (previous 0.6%) and year - on - year rate of 1.2% (previous 1.5%) may have a similar impact as Germany's data [7] - The Eurozone will release July's economic and industrial景气指数 at 17:00, with expected values of 94.8 (previous 94) and - 11 (previous - 12) respectively [8] - The US ADP will release the change in July ADP employment at 20:15. An expected increase of 75,000 (previous - 33,000) will help non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [9] - The US will release the initial value of Q2 GDP at 20:30. An expected annualized quarter - on - quarter rate of 2.5% (previous - 0.5%) will have a similar impact as the ADP employment data [10] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest - rate decision and monetary policy report at 21:45, expected to keep the overnight lending rate at 2.75% [11] - The US EIA will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 25th at 22:30. A continued decline (previous 3.169 million barrels) will help crude oil and related commodity futures [12] July 31st - The Fed will announce its interest - rate decision at 02:00, and Fed Chair Powell will hold a press conference at 02:30. Focus on the press - conference content and its impact on the futures market [13] - China will release July's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI at 09:30, with expected values of 49.7 (same as previous) and 50.5 (same as previous) respectively [14] - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest - rate decision and outlook report at 11:00, and Governor Ueda will hold a press conference at 14:30, expected to keep the benchmark rate at 0.5% [15] - The Eurozone will release the June unemployment rate at 17:00, expected to be 6.3% (same as previous) [16] - The US will release June's personal spending and income at 20:30. Expected monthly rates of 0.4% (previous - 0.1%) for personal consumption expenditure and 0.2% (previous - 0.4%) for personal income may suppress gold and silver futures but help industrial futures other than gold and silver [17] - The US will release the June PCE price index at 20:30, with expected annual rates of 2.5% (previous 2.3%) for PCE and 2.7% (same as previous) for core PCE [18] - The US will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26th at 20:30. An expected number of 215,000 (previous 217,000) may suppress gold and silver futures but help non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures [19] August 1st - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for July will be released at 9:45. An expected value of 50.5 (previous 50.4) slightly lower than the previous value may slightly suppress industrial product futures and stock index futures but help treasury bond futures [20] - The Eurozone will release the July CPI initial value at 17:00. Expected annual rates of 1.9% (previous 2.0%) for the harmonized CPI and 2.3% (previous 2.4%) for the core harmonized CPI [22] - The US will release the July non - farm payrolls report at 20:30. Expected seasonally - adjusted new non - farm jobs of 110,000 (previous 147,000), an unemployment rate of 4.2% (previous 4.1%), and an average hourly wage annual rate of 3.8% (previous 3.7%). Fewer new jobs than the previous value will help gold and silver futures but suppress other commodity futures [23] - The US ISM will release the July manufacturing PMI at 22:00. An expected value of 49.5 (previous 49) slightly higher than the previous value will slightly help non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [24]

Group 1 - China will hold a political bureau meeting at the end of July to determine the policy tone for the second half of the year [2] - The official manufacturing PMI for July will be released on July 31, with June's PMI at 49.7%, showing a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2] - A total of 54 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, amounting to 3.385 billion shares, with a total market value of 102.679 billion yuan based on the latest closing price [2] Group 2 - Three new stocks will be issued in the A-share market next week, including Tianfu Long on the Shanghai main board, Youli Intelligent on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and Guangdong Jianke on the ChiNext [3] - Over 40% of S&P 500 companies will report earnings next week, with significant attention on tech stocks such as Apple, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Qualcomm, which may lead to market volatility [4]

Group 1 - China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold trade talks with the US from July 27 to 30 in Sweden [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report on July 31, with June's manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The new round of retail fuel price adjustments will take effect on July 29, with domestic gasoline and diesel prices down by 225 yuan and 215 yuan per ton compared to the end of last year, respectively [1] Group 2 - A total of 54 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, amounting to 3.385 billion shares with a total market value of 102.679 billion yuan based on the latest closing price [2] - Three new stocks will be issued next week, including Tianfu Long on the Shanghai main board, Youli Intelligent on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and Guangdong Jianke on the ChiNext [2] - Major US tech companies, including Microsoft and Meta, will report their latest earnings on July 30, while Apple and Amazon will do so on July 31 [2]