Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The rush shipment may lead to short - term high freight rates. The EC2602 contract is likely to rise and hard to fall. For the EC2604 contract, the actual rush shipment situation needs attention, with short - term upward sentiment being strong but the actual scale of rush shipment may be limited. There may be opportunities to short EC2604 on rallies. The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for far - month contracts, but due to recent geopolitical tensions, far - month contracts may still fluctuate in the short term, and the overall strategy is to short EC2610 on rallies. [3] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures Contracts - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1729.8, up 1.40% with a basis of 66.0. The trading volume was 11327 and the open interest was 17703, a decrease of 2305. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1144.5, down 1.62% with a basis of 651.3. The trading volume was 13495 and the open interest was 29021, an increase of 1247. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1425.8, up 0.76% with a basis of 370.0. The trading volume was 447 and the open interest was 2505, an increase of 29. - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1525.7, down 0.11% with a basis of 270.1. The trading volume was 75 and the open interest was 1215, an increase of 15. - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1102.2, down 0.27% with a basis of 693.6. The trading volume was 777 and the open interest was 6662, an increase of 43. [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2502 - 2604: The spread was 585.3, with a day - on - day increase of 42.6. - EC2504 - 2606: The spread was - 281.3, with a day - on - day decrease of 29.6. [2] Spot Market - SCEIS (European Line): Updated weekly on Mondays. On January 5, 2026, it was 1795.83 points, up 3.05% from the previous period. - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly. On January 9, 2026, it was 1719 dollars/TEU, up 1.772% from the previous period. [2] European Line Spot Freight Rates - Week 2: MSK opened at 2500 dollars, Hamburg at 2600 dollars (+100). PA had some price drops, OA had price increases. The central price was 2860 dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market. - Week 3: MSK's opening price increased by 100 dollars. Other alliances had small price drops. PA was at 2600 dollars (YML's one route was 2400 dollars), and PA was in the range of 2800 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures market. - Week 4: MSK's opening price increased by 100 dollars. Most other shipping companies had not adjusted prices for the time being. [4] Group 4: News Summary - On January 11, the Israeli military was reported to plan a new round of strikes on the Gaza Strip in March 2026, aiming to expand control. - On January 11, sources said the Israeli military had no intention to attack Iran currently, but was on defensive alert. - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance adjusted the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be lowered from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate will be cancelled. [5]

近日，伊朗因物价上涨和货币贬值爆发示威活动，多地发生骚乱，造成人员伤亡。美国总统特朗普在多个场 合称美国"正密切关注"伊朗局势，威胁或对伊朗进行"严厉打击"。伊朗最高国家安全委员会1月9日发表声明 说，在美国和以色列策划和控制下，此次抗议活动演变为对国家安全的破坏。特朗普近期言论表明，美以正 联手策划，使伊朗人民生活陷入动荡。 【环球网报道 记者 李梓瑜】据路透社当地时间11日报道，三名以色列消息人士透露，以色列对美国可能干 涉伊朗当前局势保持高度警惕，但并未阐释"以色列保持高度警惕"的实际含义。 美国《纽约时报》1月10日援引匿名美国官员的话报道称，特朗普近日已听取关于军事打击伊朗方案的汇 报。他尚未做出最终决定，但正认真考虑授权美军发动军事打击。此外，特朗普10日在社交媒体上发文，再 次威胁干涉伊朗局势，称美国随时准备提供"帮助"。伊朗军方当天表示，将捍卫国家利益，保护战略基础设 施和公共财产，并敦促伊朗人民团结起来"挫败敌人的阴谋"。 报道提到，一名以色列消息人士称，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡和美国国务卿鲁比奥当地时间10日通电话，讨论 了美国干涉伊朗局势的可能性。一名美国官员证实双方通话，但未透露通话内容。 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月9日 【行情分析】 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落2.0个百分点至25.4%，较去年同期高了1.3个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减 幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。本周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥 青开工环比下跌3个百分点至17%，受到资金和天气制约。本周，华东地区主力炼厂间歇停产，其出 货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少20.05%至21.03万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比 上升，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。美国突袭委内瑞拉并逮捕马杜罗引发地缘政治局势动荡， 与影响国内原油不同，委内瑞拉重油是国内地炼重要的低价原料，而此次美国军事袭击之下，委内 瑞拉稀释沥青贴水幅度预计缩小，委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，特朗普称委内瑞拉将 向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，美国能源部长赖特宣称，美国将"无限期"地控制委内瑞拉石 油销售，这将影响国内沥青的生产和成本，关注国内炼厂原料短缺情况。下周华东主力炼厂间歇复 ...

市场普遍预计，美国 12 月新增非农就业岗位规模约为 6 万个，失业率或由 4.6% 小幅回落至 4.5%。该 数据被视为衡量美国劳动力市场韧性的关键窗口，也将为美联储后续政策节奏提供新的参考依据。目前 利率市场仍认为年内存在进一步降息空间，但节奏与时点高度依赖后续数据表现。在非农结果明朗之 前，资产定价整体偏向防御思路，区间交易特征较为明显。 除宏观数据外，地缘政治局势依然是影响市场风险偏好的重要背景因素。围绕能源、贸易以及地区安全 的多重摩擦，使避险需求在结构层面持续存在。尽管相关不确定性尚未在短期内引发剧烈波动，但对黄 金等避险资产形成中长期托底，对市场情绪构成支撑。 UNforex 1 月 9 日讯（分析师 Simon）在关键宏观数据发布窗口临近之际，全球市场整体进入降速运行 状态。美元维持本周以来的强势格局，主要资产价格更多围绕既有区间整理，黄金则在高位震荡中暂未 给出明确方向信号。随着美国 12 月非农就业报告即将公布，市场对美联储政策路径的重新定价明显升 温，观望情绪同步抬升。 周五欧洲时段开盘前，黄金价格围绕 4470 美元上方运行，盘中短暂回落后迅速获得买盘承接，整体仍 处于近期形成的震荡区 ...

Group 1 - The global financial market is maintaining a cautious stance ahead of key macroeconomic data releases, with the dollar strengthening and asset prices fluctuating within critical ranges [1][2] - Gold prices are oscillating around the $4470 mark, showing resilience despite a lack of effective breakthroughs, supported by a loose Federal Reserve policy and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] - The market is generally reducing directional trading intentions before the non-farm payroll data release, with the dollar's performance being a key limiting factor for gold's upward movement [1][2] Group 2 - The dollar remains relatively strong ahead of the non-farm payroll report, bolstered by better-than-expected U.S. trade data and initial jobless claims, leading to increased demand for the dollar [2] - The market anticipates approximately 60,000 new jobs in the December non-farm payroll report, with the unemployment rate expected to slightly decrease from 4.6% to 4.5%, which will be crucial for assessing the resilience of the U.S. labor market [2] - Geopolitical tensions surrounding energy, trade, and regional security continue to influence risk appetite, providing structural support for safe-haven assets like gold [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability in the market [1] - Silver: ★☆★, with the market in a relatively balanced state and poor operability, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious metals declined today. The US ADP employment increase in December was slightly lower than expected but better than the previous value, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was better than expected and the previous value. The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits, contract trading margin ratios, and price limit ranges for silver futures [1]. - Global geopolitical turmoil continues at the beginning of the year, and market sentiment leads to sharp volatility. Precious metals are testing resistance at previous highs. Consider participating in a breakout or waiting for volatility to decline before re - entering the market. Tonight, focus on the US weekly initial jobless claims data [1] 3. Other Key Information from the Report - The US Secretary of State will meet with Denmark next week to discuss Greenland issues [2] - Trump believes that the military budget in 2027 should be $1.5 trillion instead of $1 trillion [2] - China's gold reserves at the end of December were reported at 74.15 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces compared to the previous month, marking the 14th consecutive month of gold purchases [2]

【冠通期货研究报告】 山东地区主流市场价维持在3070元/吨，沥青03合约基差下跌至-90元/吨，处于中性偏低水 平。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 发布日期：2026年1月7日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落3.9个百分点至27.4%，较去年同期低了2.0个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减 幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数稳定，其中道路沥 青开工环比持平于20%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，东北地区低硫沥青高价成交不畅，炼厂出货遇 阻，其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少3.22%至26.31万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货 比环比下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。美国突袭委内瑞拉并逮捕马杜罗引发地缘政治局势 动荡，与影响国内原油不同，委内瑞拉重油是国内地炼重要的低价原料，而此次美国军事袭击之下， 委内瑞拉稀释沥青贴水幅度预计缩小，委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，特朗普称委内瑞 拉将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，这将影响国内沥青的生产和成本，关 ...

市场消息：美国在北大西洋靠近与俄罗斯有关联的油轮附近进行侦察飞行。 ...

原油技术面分析：原油从日线图级别看，油价触及54.80附近即入震荡，K线收较大实体阴线，均线系统压制油价，空头排列，中期客观趋势方向向下。当下 原油主客观趋势方向一直向下，依据主次交替规律，原油中期走势维持下行节奏不变。原油短线(1H)走势持续走高至58.50附近，油价突破前期下行最近一 个低点，短线下行走势被突破。当下原油主客观趋势方向一致向上。动能上，MACD指标在零轴上方高位运行，多头动能占优势。预计日内原油走势节奏仍 将维持上行为主。综合来看，原油今日操作思路上贺博生建议以回踩低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期关注59.5-60.5一线阻力，下方短期关注55.5-54.5一 线支撑。 面临亏损你必须知道的事： 操作上战略上要藐视市场，战术上要重视市场，对于目前的行情仍要保持清醒，市场没有永远的多头也没有永远空头，短线做波动，中线做波段，长线做趋 势，我们在不断的寻找可重复赢利的再现交易。对于交易而言必须要明确多空信号，果断进场，交易要趋向于第一种走势，堤防于第二走势，如果错了就要 注意第三种走势，金海踏浪、赢在节奏！黄金原油市场是一个智者的游戏，勇者的乐园，踏准节奏，波段操作，安全第一，控制风险，稳定赚 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - From December 22 to January 4, foreign and domestic precious metals showed mixed performance, with silver outperforming gold and the gold - silver ratio continuing to decline. The year - end correction in precious metals was driven by capital behavior, market panic, and CME's margin hike, leading to profit - taking and a long - position stampede. In the short term, geopolitical events, upcoming PMI, and non - farm payroll data may affect precious metal prices. The medium - to - long - term logic remains unchanged, but overall volatility may increase [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View - **Price Performance**: From December 22 to January 4, COMEX gold futures fell 1.03% to $4341.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 7.08% to $72.27 per ounce. Domestically, Shanghai gold futures fell 0.27% to 977.56 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 11.92% to 17,074 yuan per kilogram [4]. - **Economic Data**: The Q3 2025 US GDP growth rate reached 4.3%, far exceeding market expectations and hitting a two - year high. However, due to the previous government shutdown, the market is cautious about the reliability and comparability of these data [4][21]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: In the December FOMC meeting, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there were three dissenting votes. The market expects the near - term rate - cut pace to slow or pause, while the policy path in H2 2026 depends on economic data and the new Fed chair's policy stance [4][23]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The US shows a diplomatic negotiation attitude on the Ukraine issue but takes military action in Venezuela, which seriously impacts international relations. Geopolitical instability is a major factor affecting precious metal prices [4][25]. 3.2 Macro - **GDP Growth**: The Q3 2025 US GDP growth rate was 4.3%, with a total GDP of $7.79 trillion. Personal consumption, exports, and government spending contributed to growth, while non - residential fixed investment slowed, residential investment decreased, and private inventory investment dragged down growth [21]. - **Market Attitude**: Despite the strong GDP data, the market is cautious due to the previous government shutdown causing a data vacuum [21]. 3.3 Interest Rate Cut Expectations - **FOMC Meeting**: In December, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but three members opposed it. The change in wording in the policy statement indicates a higher threshold for future rate cuts [23]. - **Dot - Plot Projection**: The median projection in the dot - plot shows only one rate cut in 2026. Fed Chair Powell said the current policy rate is in the "neutral" range [23]. - **Political Uncertainty**: Powell's term ends in May 2026. Some potential successors may support more aggressive rate cuts, leading to a split in market expectations [23]. 3.4 Geopolitics - **Ukraine Issue**: Trump and Zelensky reached about 95% consensus on a "20 - point peace plan" but the territorial issue remains unresolved. The US and Russia have formed a working group [25]. - **Venezuela Situation**: The US launched an air strike on Caracas on January 3, which was strongly opposed by the international community. The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on this [25]. - **Greenland Claim**: Trump's claim to Greenland has drawn strong protests from Denmark [25].