广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 正文 美联储 2026 年 1 月 27-28 日举行议息会议 ， FOMC 官员投票保持联邦基金利率在 3.5%-3.75% ，这 是自 2025 年 9 月重启降息后的第一次暂停。理事沃勒和米兰投反对票，倾向于在此次会议上降息 25 个基 点。本次议息会议决议在市场预期之内，相对更为重要的信息是：（ 1 ）美联储对后续货币政策路径的表 态；（ 2 ）美联储对就业市场和通胀的评估。 2022 年 3 月、 5 月、 6 月、 7 月、 9 月、 11 月、 12 月以及 2023 年 2 月、 3 月、 5 月、 7 月美 联储先后十一次上调基准利率。其中 2022 年 3 月加息幅度为 25bp ， 5 月为 50bp ， 6 月 -11 月每次 加息 75bp ， 12 月为 50bp ， 2023 年 2 月、 3 月、 5 月、 7 月为 25bp ； 6 月为首次暂停加息， 9 月为第二次暂停， 11 月为第三次暂停， 12 月为第四次暂停， 2024 年 1 月为第五次暂停， 3 月为第六 次暂停， 5 ...

摘要今日周四(1月29日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1229.91元/克，较前一交易日上涨1.73元，涨幅 1.66%，日内呈现强势冲高走势。当日开盘价报1209.23元/克，盘中最高触及1248.62元/克，最低下探至 1208.99元/克。 今日周四(1月29日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1229.91元/克，较前一交易日上涨1.73元，涨幅 1.66%，日内呈现强势冲高走势。当日开盘价报1209.23元/克，盘中最高触及1248.62元/克，最低下探至 1208.99元/克。 【要闻速递】 杰弗里.冈拉克，这位DoubleLine Capital的首席执行官以及被誉为"新债王"的投资者，在最近的一次采 访中表达了他对当前美联储政策的看法。他预计，在鲍威尔主席任期的剩余时间内，美联储将维持利率 不变，因为经济前景正在变得更加平衡。这一观点反映了他对美国经济和货币政策走向的深入分析。 考虑到鲍威尔作为主席仅剩下两次政策会议，冈拉克似乎对鲍威尔在任期间不会再有降息持有较为确定 的预期。他认为鲍威尔正在为美联储的双重目标——物价稳定和最大就业——之间的矛盾缓和铺路。 此外，冈拉克还重申了他对国际敞口的偏好， ...

当地时间1月28日，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，建议下一届美联储主席与美国政治"划清界限"。 当天早些时候，美联储公布最新一期货币政策会议纪要，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变。随后，美联储主席鲍威尔就该决定 举行发布会，并就美国当前经济状况及美联储下任主席等问题接受记者提问。 会议纪要显示，现有指标表明，就业增长仍处于低位，失业率已显现出趋于稳定的迹象。通胀水平仍处于较高水平。委员会致力于实现最大就业和长期通 胀率达到2%的目标。经济前景的不确定性仍然很高。委员会密切关注其双重使命面临的风险。为支持其目标，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间继续 维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。 具体表决细节显示，美联储以10票赞成、2票反对的结果，决定将基准利率维持在3.5%至3.75%区间。美联储理事沃勒以及米兰投下反对票，主张降息25 个基点。 在此次利率政策出台前，市场普遍预期美联储将在本周政策会议上维持利率不变，此前该机构已在2025下半年连续三次降息。 美联储主席鲍威尔在发布会表示，美国失业率已出现一些企稳迹象，劳动力市场在逐渐走软后可能正在趋于稳定，招聘、职位空缺和工资增长几乎没有变 化；消 ...

Group 1 - Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, predicts that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged during Jerome Powell's remaining term, expressing a more balanced view on the economic outlook [1] - The Federal Reserve has kept the overnight lending rate unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, indicating that economic activity is expanding at a steady pace and that the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization [1] - Gundlach believes that the interest rate cuts under Powell have reached a bottom, with the current benchmark rate successfully returning to a "balanced range" near the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield [1] Group 2 - Gundlach asserts that maintaining the current policy will be the main theme in the upcoming meetings before Powell's term ends in 2026, advocating for a 30% to 40% allocation in unhedged international stocks due to potential benefits from local currencies appreciating against the dollar [3] - Major investment banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have differing views on the likelihood of interest rate cuts, with JPMorgan's chief economist suggesting no cuts in 2026, while Goldman Sachs has delayed its forecast for rate cuts to mid-2026 [3][4] - Goldman Sachs expects two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in June and September 2026, arguing that while rates need to remain stable in the short term, there is room for minor adjustments as economic growth picks up and inflation cools [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights the steady growth in the semiconductor industry, with companies like Anji Technology and Guanggang Gas benefiting from the ongoing expansion cycle [14][15] - Anji Technology anticipates a revenue of 2.505 billion yuan for 2025, representing a 37% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 795 million yuan, up 49% [14] - Guanggang Gas projects a revenue of 2.424 billion yuan for 2025, also reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 286 million yuan [15] Semiconductor Industry Overview - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a robust upturn, driven by high demand for DRAM and NAND chips, leading to significant price increases [15] - The report notes that the global semiconductor industry is entering a new capital expansion phase, with major players planning substantial capacity increases [14][15] Company-Specific Insights - Anji Technology's CMP polishing liquid market share is steadily increasing, with functional wet chemicals seeing rapid growth, contributing to high annual performance [14] - Guanggang Gas is benefiting from the high demand in the semiconductor industry, with existing projects and new ones coming online, leading to consistent quarterly revenue growth [15] Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, with Anji Technology poised to benefit from new capacity releases in downstream sectors [14] - Guanggang Gas is also well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing expansion in the semiconductor market, with numerous potential projects on the horizon [15]

北京时间周四（28日）凌晨，美联储公布1月利率决议。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以10-2的方式 决定维持利率区间在3.50%-3.75%不变，两张反对票来源于美联储理事沃勒和米兰，他们提出降息25个 基点。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，当前的经济增长前景相较去年有所改善，委员会将继续根据最新出炉的经济数 据，逐次会议作出降息相关决策，并为美联储坚持独立性辩护。当前，美联储正应对外界对美国总统特 朗普干预其中立独立性的诸多质疑，同时静待新任领导层的产生。 美联储肯定经济表现 美联储决议声明称，现有指标显示，经济活动正以稳健步伐扩张。就业岗位新增数量保持低位，失业率 呈现出一定企稳迹象，通胀水平仍处于偏高状态。 值得重点关注的是，声明中删除了此前提及的 "委员会认为劳动力市场走弱的风险高于通胀高企风 险"的表述。这一调整意味着，美联储官员认为其实现低通胀和充分就业的双重目标正逐步趋于平衡， 因此货币政策将采取更为审慎的观望态度。 鲍威尔在新闻发布会伊始表示，美国经济开年根基稳固。"美国经济去年以稳健步伐扩张，2026 年开局 根基稳固。尽管就业岗位新增数量持续处于低位，但失业率已显现一定企稳迹象，通胀水平仍处于偏高 ...

北京时间周四（28日）凌晨，美联储公布1月利率决议。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以10-2的方式 决定维持利率区间在3.50%-3.75%不变，两张反对票来源于美联储理事沃勒和米兰，他们提出降息25个 基点。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，当前的经济增长前景相较去年有所改善，委员会将继续根据最新出炉的经济数 据，逐次会议作出降息相关决策，并为美联储坚持独立性辩护。当前，美联储正应对外界对美国总统特 朗普干预其中立独立性的诸多质疑，同时静待新任领导层的产生。 美联储肯定经济表现 美联储决议声明称，现有指标显示，经济活动正以稳健步伐扩张。就业岗位新增数量保持低位，失业率 呈现出一定企稳迹象，通胀水平仍处于偏高状态。 值得重点关注的是，声明中删除了此前提及的 "委员会认为劳动力市场走弱的风险高于通胀高企风 险"的表述。这一调整意味着，美联储官员认为其实现低通胀和充分就业的双重目标正逐步趋于平衡， 因此货币政策将采取更为审慎的观望态度。 鲍威尔在新闻发布会伊始表示，美国经济开年根基稳固。"美国经济去年以稳健步伐扩张，2026 年开局 根基稳固。尽管就业岗位新增数量持续处于低位，但失业率已显现一定企稳迹象，通胀水平仍处于偏高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, after previously lowering rates by 25 basis points in three consecutive meetings [1][3][13]. Economic Indicators - Current indicators suggest that U.S. economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace, with signs of stabilization in the labor market and a slight increase in the unemployment rate as of September [6][18]. - Inflation remains relatively high, with the core PCE slightly above 2% after excluding the impact of tariffs, which are expected to peak and then decline this year [11][18]. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Decision - The FOMC reaffirmed its commitment to achieving maximum employment and a 2% inflation target, acknowledging the high uncertainty in the current economic outlook [18]. - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects a careful assessment of the latest data and economic risks, with readiness to adjust monetary policy if necessary [18]. Voting Dynamics - Two members of the FOMC, Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller, voted against the decision to maintain the rate, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [15]. - The voting dynamics indicate differing views within the committee regarding the appropriate monetary policy stance [8][15]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the U.S. dollar index saw an increase of up to 1%, while major U.S. stock indices experienced minimal fluctuations [17].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% during the latest FOMC meeting, reflecting ongoing concerns about employment growth and high inflation levels [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was supported by a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against, with dissenting votes from Governors Waller and Milan who advocated for a 25 basis point cut [2] Economic Indicators - Current indicators suggest that employment growth remains low, while the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization. Inflation levels continue to be high, prompting the committee to focus on achieving maximum employment and a long-term inflation target of 2% [2] Market Expectations - Prior to the policy announcement, market expectations indicated that the Federal Reserve would maintain the interest rate steady, following three consecutive rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [2]

当地时间1月28日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间继续维持在3.5%至3.75%之间，投票结果为10比2，理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和斯 蒂芬·米兰投下反对票，主张降息25个基点。 美联储在连续三次降息后按下了宽松政策的暂停键。此次决定依然遭遇异议，除了自进入决策层以来一 直投下反对票的斯蒂芬·米兰外，跻身总统唐纳德·特朗普考虑的新主席最终名单的理事克里斯托弗·沃勒 也主张继续下调利率。 在会后声明中，政策制定者表示"就业增长保持低位，失业率显现出一些企稳迹象"。官员们还删除了前 三份声明中出现的关于就业下行风险增加的表述。尽管特朗普政府不断施压，但央行提高对劳动力市场 的评估可能会抑制市场对近期降息的预期。在会议开始前，投资者认为至少在6月之前不太可能再次降 息。 主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在随后的记者会上对经济前景做出了略为乐观的评估，指出上次议息会议以来的数 据显示增长明显改善，而走软的劳动力市场可能正企稳。被问及最近成为关注焦点的汇率时，他说没有 看到表明投资者在对冲美元风险的数据。 此外，他并未对备受关注的政治议题作出实质性回应，但表示美联储理事 ...