Employment Data - In August, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000 and the previous value of 79,000[3] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3%, matching expectations but up from 4.2%[3] - The Labor Department revised the non-farm employment data for June and July, resulting in a total downward adjustment of 21,000 jobs[3] Sector Performance - The goods-producing sector saw a job loss of 25,000, continuing a downward trend, while the service sector added 63,000 jobs, down from 85,000 in the previous month[4] - Notably, the manufacturing sector lost 12,000 jobs, and government employment decreased by 16,000[11] Market Implications - Following the employment data release, the market anticipates a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and October, with some speculation about a potential 50 basis points cut in September[3] - The short-term U.S. Treasury yields have declined rapidly, while long-term yields have remained relatively stable[5] Economic Outlook - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, but the unemployment rate has not increased significantly, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may not act too quickly on rate cuts[4] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming CPI data on September 11, which will provide further insights into inflation trends[5] Risks - There are risks associated with the U.S. economy potentially declining more than expected, as well as uncertainties surrounding monetary and fiscal policies[51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Employment data in the US is under pressure again, leading to a significant decline in US Treasury yields. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting has increased significantly [1][3][9][11]. - The US manufacturing and service industries show different trends, with the manufacturing industry moving from contraction to expansion, while the service industry is still in a good expansion state but with a slowdown in expansion speed. EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, contrary to market expectations [2][10]. - Global stock markets are mixed, with European markets generally under pressure. Precious metals in the commodity market hit new highs, and risk preferences are polarized. Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB [4][15][16][17]. 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Indicator Review Employment - In July, JOLTS job openings were lower than expected, dropping to a 10 - month low (7.181 million, lower than the forecast of 7.380 million and the previous value of 7.357 million) [9]. - In August, the US ADP employment increase was only 54,000, far lower than the expected 73,000 and the previous value of 106,000, indicating a significant weakening of employment growth momentum [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims this week exceeded expectations, rising to 237,000, higher than the forecast of 230,000 and the previous value of 229,000, confirming the cooling trend of the labor market [9]. - The month - on - month growth rate of average hourly wages in August met expectations and was the same as the previous value (0.3%) [9]. - In August, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll employment increase was only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000 and a more than 70% drop from the previous value, further lowering the market's expectations for the employment market [9]. - The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, in line with expectations and slightly higher than the previous value of 4.2%. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting increased significantly [1][9]. Economy - In August, the US Markit manufacturing PMI increased significantly to 53.0, returning above 50 and indicating that the manufacturing industry moved from the contraction range in July to the expansion range [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected but up 0.7 points from the previous value [2][10]. - In August, the US Markit services PMI was lower than expected and declined from the previous value, but it was still above 50, indicating that the service industry was still in a good expansion state [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI rebounded above expectations, reaching 52.0 and remaining above 50 for three consecutive months [2][10]. - The US EIA crude oil inventory this week increased significantly to 2.415 million barrels, far exceeding the expected - 2.000 million barrels and the previous value of - 2.392 million barrels [2][10]. 3.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review US - From August 29 to September 5, 2025, the 1 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields dropped by 18bp and 13bp respectively, to 3.05% and 4.1%. Employment data put pressure on the market, and the Fed's attitude remains cautious. The market's expectation for a 50bp interest - rate cut at the September meeting has heated up again, but the possibility is still low. Multiple 25bp interest - rate cuts this year are more likely, and the possibility of consecutive interest - rate cuts is small [3][11]. Europe and Japan - The Japanese bond market was stable with small fluctuations. The 1 - year and 10 - year Japanese bond yields fluctuated by - 0.34bp and - 0.8bp respectively, to 0.7% and 1.62%. - The German bond market was also stable. The 2 - year and 10 - year German bond yields fluctuated by 3.00bp and 0bp respectively, to 1.96% and 2.71% [3][14]. 3.3 Other Asset Class Reviews Equity - Global stock markets were mixed. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (+1.36%), the US NASDAQ (+1.14%), and the Indian Sensex30 (+1.13%) led the gains, supported by the rebound of the technology and financial sectors. In contrast, the German DAX (-1.28%), A - shares (-1.18%), and the Vietnamese VN30 (-1.07%) declined significantly, mainly affected by macro - economic and capital - market pressures, and European markets were generally under pressure [4][15]. Commodity - Precious metals performed brightly. London silver rose by 5.01%, and London gold rose by 4.82% this week, breaking through the historical high of $3,587 per ounce, highlighting the surge in market risk - aversion demand. Crude oil and agricultural products generally declined, while some black - series commodities rose slightly. Bitcoin rebounded by 2.12%, showing a polarized risk preference [4][16]. Foreign Exchange - Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB. The US dollar and the euro exchange rates against the RMB rose by 0.08% and 0.10% respectively, while the Japanese yen, Russian ruble, and Indian rupee exchange rates against the RMB fell by 0.71%, 1.14%, and 0.62% respectively [4][17]. 3.4 Market Tracking The report provides multiple charts, including the US Treasury auction panel, FED WATCH latest target - rate expectations, the simulated trends of the US dollar, US stocks, US Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin, the trends of global major stock indices, the weekly changes in bond yields of major global economies, the weekly changes in major commodities, the weekly changes in major foreign exchange rates against the RMB, and the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [12][13][19][20][22][26][29][32][39][46].

据哥伦比亚《时代报》8月29日报道，哥国家统计署数据显示，7月哥失业 率为8.8%、就业率为58.9%，同比分别下降和上升1.1个百分点。就业人口超过 2390 万，失业人口超过 230 万。非正规就业率为54.8%，自2021年7月以来一 直处于下降趋势。 （原标题：2025年7月哥伦比亚失业率降至8.8%） ...

仅2024年第四季度就业人数就增加了115万人，使就业总人数上升至1273万人，而失业人数同比也 增加了约20万人，劳动力的增长超过了吸收量。此外，失业情况和就业质量在性别和地区方面仍然存在 差异，女性就业人数一直超过男性就业人数。 据"城市新闻网"8月28日报道，加纳统计局数据显示到2024年底，加纳的失业率从2023年的14.6%降 至13.6%，仅改善一个百分点。但年轻人的失业率依然高居不下，15至35岁的加纳人失业率高达 22.5％，首次求职者和毕业生仍然面临持续压力。 （原标题：加纳失业率微降至13.6%，青年失业率仍高企） ...

智利《三点钟报》8月29日报道，智利国家统计局最新统计报告显示，今年5—7 月，智利全国失业率8.7%，环比下降0.2个百分点，同比保持不变。其中女性失业率约 9.7%，同比上升0.6个百分点；男性约7.9%，同比下降 0.4个百分点。截至7月，智利新 增就业岗位72829个，正规和非正规就业均有所下降。 （原标题：5—7月智利失业率略降至8.7%） ...

Core Viewpoint - The August employment report appears to set the stage for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, potentially even leading to speculation about a 50 basis point cut, although there are reservations about the data's reliability [1] Employment Data Analysis - Historical trends indicate that August employment reports often fall short of consensus expectations and are subsequently revised upward [1] - The response rate for this month's survey is the lowest for August since 2000, and the seasonal adjustments appear unusually large [1] - It is anticipated that employment growth reached a low point in June and will gradually improve in the coming months as revised data becomes available [1] Labor Market Dynamics - The rising unemployment rate signals that the pace of labor demand reduction is outpacing labor supply [1] - This trend reinforces the likelihood of a rate cut in September [1]

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the United States for August is reported at 4.3%, matching expectations and slightly increasing from the previous value of 4.2% [1]

非农数据出炉后，除非美国CPI数据出现极大意外，几乎没有其他因素能让美联储选择不降息。现在市场关注的焦点转向是否会一次性降息50基点。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):美国8月新增非农就业人数2.2万人，不及7.5万人的市场共识预期，同时失业率从4.2%升至4.3%，创4年新高。就业参与率62.3%符合预期。6月非农新增就业人数从1.4万人下修2.7万人至-1.3万人，7月人数从7.3万人上修0.6万至7.9万人，修正后合计较修正前低2.1万人。#行情 降息预期加强助推黄金走高20美元。 ...

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the United States for August is reported at 4.3%, matching the forecast of 4.3% and slightly increasing from the previous value of 4.2% [1]

美国8月新增非农就业人数2.2万人，不及7.5万人的市场共识预期，同时失业率从4.2%升至4.3%。就业参与率62.3%符合预期。6月非农新增就业人数从1.4万人下修2.7万人至-1.3万人，7月人数从7.3万人上修0.6万至7.9万人，修正后合计较修正前低2.1万人。#行情 降息预期加强助推黄金走高20美元。 ...