Report Overview - The report is the 114th issue of the Morning Meeting Minutes in 2025, released on June 26, 2025, by Zhongyuan Futures Research Institute [2]. 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economic and political situation is complex, with international trade patterns changing, geopolitical conflicts affecting the market, and China's domestic policies focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting economic development [7][8]. - The commodity market shows different trends. Agricultural products are in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices fluctuating slightly; energy - chemical products have different price movements due to factors such as supply and demand changes and policy expectations; industrial metals are affected by factors such as inventory and demand, with prices mostly in a state of shock; the stock and option markets are also affected by various factors, and investors need to pay attention to market trends and policy changes [4][12][18]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Chemical Industry - **Price Changes**: On June 26, 2025, in the chemical industry, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, plastic, etc. rose, while crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, etc. fell. For example, natural rubber rose 135.0 to 13,905.00, with a rise - fall rate of 0.980%, and crude oil fell 3.80 to 504.80, with a rise - fall rate of - 0.747% [4]. 3.2 Macro News - **International**: Premier Li Qiang of the State Council attended the opening ceremony of the 2025 Summer Davos Forum and stated China's stance on economic globalization. US President Trump mentioned negotiations with Iran on a potential nuclear agreement and expressed his views on the Israel - Iran conflict. He also said that China can continue to buy oil from Iran and hopes China will also buy a large amount of oil from the US [7][8]. - **Domestic**: China is accelerating the construction of a unified national market, expanding domestic demand, and promoting innovation in various fields such as medicine and new energy vehicles. For example, the state is promoting the development of high - end equipment manufacturing, smart photovoltaics, etc., and the National Medical Products Administration is taking measures to speed up the approval of innovative drugs and medical devices [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: In a pattern of weak supply and demand, with slow inventory removal and poor downstream demand, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: On June 24, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased significantly. With the expected end of the Israel - Iran conflict, the oil market is expected to be under pressure, and short - selling is recommended [12]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is suppressed by Brazil's peak - season sugar pressing, while the domestic market has support from low inventory and the upcoming summer consumption season. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels in the 5750 - 5800 range and pay attention to the support at 5700 [12]. - **Corn**: The market is in a state of mixed long and short factors. With factors such as the strong price - holding attitude of traders in the Northeast and the weakening demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - **Pigs**: The overall supply is relatively stable, and the futures market is affected by policy expectations and supply concerns. The main 09 contract is testing the pressure in the 13800 - 14000 range [14]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the supply is sufficient and the demand is weak. In the medium term, there are expectations of supply - demand transformation. The futures market is expected to remain volatile, waiting for long - entry opportunities [14]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price has risen slightly. With some enterprises planning to shut down for maintenance at the end of the month, supply is expected to decrease. Attention should be paid to export policies and agricultural demand [14]. - **Caustic Soda**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price is expected to continue to run at a low level due to the lack of strong fundamental support [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by factors such as safety inspections and environmental protection, the market sentiment has improved, but the overall demand is still weak, and the short - term trend is stable and volatile [14][16]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper inventory has decreased, and the price is under pressure at the 80,000 - yuan level. Aluminum inventory has increased slightly, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [16]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are expected to remain relatively loose in the short term, and the price is expected to decline slightly and run at a low level in the medium term [16]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The spot market is in a wait - and - see state, with weak trading volume. Rebar inventory has increased, and hot - rolled coil inventory has decreased slightly. Steel prices are under pressure but may fluctuate due to the improvement of the macro - environment [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have rebounded strongly, and the basis has narrowed rapidly. They are expected to follow the overall upward trend of commodities in the short term [16][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals are in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see, and if the price stabilizes above 61,000 yuan, a small - position long - entry can be considered [18]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has risen strongly, and the international stock market shows different trends. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the domestic market risk appetite has increased. Investors should pay attention to trading volume, the performance of the non - banking financial sector, and the formation of leading sectors [18][20]. - **Options**: For trend investors, it is recommended to go long on the CSI 1000 and short on the SSE 50 for arbitrage. For volatility investors, it is recommended to hold a long - straddle position to bet on increased volatility [21][23].

2025年上半年，我国扩内需政策全面加码，成为推动经济稳健前行的关键动力。消费品以旧换新政策效 果持续显现，服务消费需求显著增长，新型消费不断涌现；随着地方政府专项债券和超长期特别国债加 快发行使用，"两重"建设加快推进，基础设施投资平稳增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a divergence in resident credit data, with a notable decrease in short-term loans and an increase in medium to long-term loans, indicating varying consumer behaviors and market conditions [1][3]. Summary by Sections Short-term Loans - In May, resident short-term loans decreased by 20.8 billion yuan, continuing a negative trend, while the overall household loans increased by 54 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 21.7 billion yuan [3][6]. - Factors contributing to the decline in short-term loans include insufficient consumer spending, increased interest rates on consumer loans, and diminishing effects of consumption policies [1][3]. - The cautious attitude of residents towards pre-consumption is reflected in their sensitivity to interest rate changes, particularly after banks raised consumer loan rates to 3% or higher [4][3]. Medium to Long-term Loans - In contrast, medium to long-term loans saw an increase of 74.6 billion yuan in May, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 23.2 billion yuan and 197.7 billion yuan, respectively [7][8]. - The active real estate market in first and second-tier cities has been a significant driver for the growth in medium to long-term loans, supported by favorable government policies [7][8]. - Despite the positive growth in medium to long-term loans, experts caution that the growth is from a low base and should be evaluated carefully [8][9]. Overall Credit Market - The overall credit market remains weak, with the total new loans for the first five months of the year being less than 600 billion yuan, the lowest level since 2009 [12]. - Although recent financial policies have improved market confidence, the link between economic activity and credit demand has not strengthened significantly [12][13]. - Experts predict that the expansion of domestic demand policies will continue, with expectations for a gradual recovery in credit demand as economic activities pick up [11][13].

Group 1 - The overall credit situation in the residential sector remains weak, with a notable divergence in short-term and medium-to-long-term loans [2][14] - In May, short-term loans decreased by 20.8 billion yuan, while medium-to-long-term loans increased by 74.6 billion yuan, indicating a contrasting performance [4][8] - Factors such as insufficient consumer momentum, rising interest rates on consumer loans, and diminishing policy effects have contributed to the low demand for short-term loans [2][4] Group 2 - The increase in medium-to-long-term loans is primarily supported by active real estate transactions in first- and second-tier cities, alongside relaxed housing policies [8][9] - Despite the positive growth in medium-to-long-term loans, the actual significance of this growth should be cautiously evaluated due to the low base from the previous year [10][11] - The overall residential sector's new loans from January to May were less than 600 billion yuan, accounting for only 5.4% of total credit, marking the lowest level since 2009 [14] Group 3 - Experts remain optimistic about future credit demand, anticipating that various consumption promotion policies and upcoming shopping events will boost consumer confidence and credit demand [6][18] - The recent adjustments in housing policies, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions, are expected to positively influence residents' willingness to take out medium-to-long-term loans [9][12] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with ongoing pressures on domestic demand and the need for coordinated monetary and fiscal policies to stimulate credit growth [17][19]

今日，A股继续微幅震荡，北证50指数再次冲击1400点无果，上证指数全天红绿转换超10次，深证成指、创业板指则 连续5日收阴。下跌个股远多于上涨个股，市场成交超1万亿元。 | 名称 | ● ★ | 取新 | 涨幅% | 金额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 12 | 3339.93 | -0.02 | 3893.41 亿 | | 深证成指 | | @ 10003.26 | -0.26 | 6206.09亿 | | 创业板指 | e | 1985.38 | -0.31 | 2722.07亿 | | 上证50 | 4 | 2683.06 | -0.08 | 448.30亿 | | 沪深300 | 12 | 3836.24 | -0.08 | 1624.96亿 | | 科创50 | 10 | 970.64 | -0.23 | 146.36亿 | | 北证50 | 12 | 1378.23 | -1.39 | 241.22亿 | | 中证1000 | C | 5984.46 | -0.40 | 1917.33亿 | 盘面上，食品饮料、海洋经济、环保概念、可控核聚变 ...

【导读】环保板块早盘强势拉升，大消费概念股持续走强 中国基金报记者 李智 一起来看下上午的市场情况及资讯。 5月28日上午，A股三大指数涨跌不一，截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.07%，深成指跌0.04%，创业板指涨0.02%。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3342.93 | 10025.31 | 1395.69 | | +2.24 +0.07% | -3.81 -0.04% | -1.95 -0.14% | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 973.76 | 1992.13 | 5064.71 | | +0.84 +0.09% | +0.49 +0.02% | -2.73 -0.05% | 板块上来看，大消费概念股持续走强，饮料制造概念股领涨，环保、核电、CPO等板块表现活跃；而教育、宠物经济、生物医药等概念股震荡调整。 | | Wind热门概念指数 | | | | | Wind中国行业指数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 光模块(CPO) | 光通信 | 饮 ...

Economic Performance - In April, industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected growth of 5.2% but down from the previous month's growth of 7.7%[10] - From January to April, fixed asset investment grew by 4.0% year-on-year, below the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%[10] - Social retail sales in April rose by 5.1% year-on-year, lower than the expected 5.5% and the previous month's growth of 5.9%[10] Sector Analysis - The production sector showed a slowdown but maintained rapid growth, with service industry growth steady and equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing performing well[7] - Despite increasing tariff impacts, export growth of 8.1% in April exceeded expectations of 0.8%, partially mitigating tariff disruptions[11] Consumer Trends - Consumption showed signs of slowing down, but structural highlights were evident, with both social retail sales and service retail sales showing recovery trends[12] - Significant growth in specific consumer goods was noted, with home appliances and communication equipment sales increasing by 38.8% and 19.9% respectively[12] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth was below expectations across all three major components, indicating a need for policy support[13] - Infrastructure investment growth was recorded at 10.9% year-on-year, while real estate investment declined by 10.3%[14] Future Outlook - The report suggests that while short-term tariff impacts may ease, long-term uncertainties remain, with ongoing supply exceeding demand posing risks to economic stability[8] - Recent policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are expected to enhance consumption and stabilize market confidence, with close monitoring of policy implementation and US-China tariff negotiations recommended[8]

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, Trip.com Group achieved revenue of 13.85 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.18%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 4.188 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.28%, with revenue meeting expectations and profit exceeding Bloomberg consensus [1] Revenue Performance - Q1 revenue reached 13.85 billion RMB, aligning with guidance of 13.8 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 16.2% [1] - Breakdown of revenue sources: - Transportation ticketing revenue: 5.42 billion RMB, up 8.4% [1] - Hotel revenue: 5.54 billion RMB, up 23.2% [1] - Vacation revenue: 0.95 billion RMB, up 7.3% [1] - Business travel revenue: 0.57 billion RMB, up 12.1% [1] - Other revenue: 1.37 billion RMB, up 32.98% [1] - Domestic hotel booking volume growth reached high teens, with ADR decline being lower than the industry average [1] Profitability Analysis - Gross profit for Q1 was 11.125 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.08%, with a gross margin of 80.44%, down 0.76 percentage points [2] - Non-GAAP net profit was 4.188 billion RMB, corresponding to a net margin of 30.28%, down 3.78 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The increase in international business share and investment led to a decline in gross margin and an increase in sales expense ratio [2] Future Projections - Expected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 61.12 billion RMB and 70.96 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 14.68% and 16.10% respectively [3] - Projected Non-GAAP net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 17.383 billion RMB and 20.759 billion RMB, with corresponding net margins of 28.44% and 29.25% [3] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 569.30 HKD, corresponding to an 18X PE for 2026 [3]

Economic Growth - In April, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in China grew by 6.1% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.0%, indicating a stable economic growth despite external pressures [1][2] - The overall economic growth in April reflects a recovery trend, supported by domestic demand policies and a diversified export strategy, despite a 21% year-on-year decline in exports to the US [1][3] Export Performance - China's exports in April, measured in US dollars, increased by 8.1% year-on-year, surpassing the 5.7% growth rate in the first quarter, demonstrating resilience against external challenges [3][4] - The nominal growth rate of export delivery value from industrial enterprises in April was only 0.9%, a significant drop from the 6.7% growth in the first quarter, indicating pressure from US tariffs [4] Consumer Market - The retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment saw significant year-on-year growth rates of 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% respectively, contributing to the overall retail sales growth [5] - The fixed asset investment growth rate remained at 4% for the first four months, supported by infrastructure investment, while manufacturing investment grew by 8.8% [5] Policy Measures - The government is expected to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, aiming for sustained economic development [2][9] - The expansion of domestic demand policies, including the "old-for-new" consumption policy, is anticipated to continue supporting economic recovery [5][10] Real Estate Market - The real estate market remains under pressure, with weak demand and a slowdown in project starts affecting investment, despite recent monetary easing measures [10][11] - Future policies are expected to focus on stabilizing the real estate market, enhancing supply of quality housing, and promoting urban renewal initiatives [11][12]

Economic Growth - In April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 6.0%, indicating strong economic growth despite external pressures [1][2] - The overall economic performance in April reflects a stable growth trajectory, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and diversifying exports [1][3] Export Performance - Despite a 21% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. in April, China's total exports in dollar terms grew by 8.1%, exceeding market expectations [1][3] - The increase in exports is attributed to a "grab export" phenomenon to markets outside the U.S., resilient external demand, and the timing of U.S. tariff implementations [3][6] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The consumption upgrade policy, particularly the "old-for-new" program, has significantly boosted retail sales in categories such as home appliances and furniture, with growth rates of 38.8% and 26.9% respectively [4] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year in April, reflecting a recovery in domestic demand [2][4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment maintained a growth rate of 4% in the first four months, supported by infrastructure investment, while manufacturing investment grew by 8.8% [4] - Real estate investment saw a decline of 10.3%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector, despite overall stability in the real estate market [8][9] Policy Measures - The government is expected to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, aiming for sustained economic growth [1][7] - There is a call for expanding consumption policies to include service consumption and products transitioning from export to domestic sales [7][8]