丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] "投资于人"背景下预计核心 CPI 涨幅延续 ——10 月 CPI 和 PPI 点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 10 月 CPI 同比年内首次转正，PPI 环比由持平转为上涨 0.1%。核心 CPI 延续回升， 或将持续受"投资于人"政策的推动，服务与工业品消费价格共同支撑。食品与能源拖累减弱。 PPI 中的上游采掘加工及产能治理重点制造业价格企稳回升，供需关系边际改善。低物价环境 延续改善，但 10 月受假期需求推动，需继续观察工业品到消费品的传导。物价有望延续温和 改善，但债市对物价预期已有一定程度定价，年内物价对债市的扰动或有限，预计 10 年期国 债（免税）活跃券收益率有望下行至 1.65%-1.7%，含税券收益率有望下行至 1.7%-1.75%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title "投资于人"背景下 ...

Core Insights - The overall price level in China is showing signs of recovery, indicating an improvement in terminal demand, as evidenced by the CPI turning positive and a narrowing decline in PPI [1][2] Group 1: Consumer Trends - The robust increase in service consumption prices reflects a significant recovery in the service sector, driven by short-term consumption during holidays and a long-term shift towards service-oriented consumption [1][2] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, travel-related prices surged, with hotel accommodation, flight tickets, and tourism prices rising by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively, indicating strong holiday economic growth [1] Group 2: Structural Changes in Consumption - There is a clear structural shift from physical goods consumption to service consumption, with prices for medical and domestic services showing a consistent upward trend, supported by rising income levels and favorable policies [2][3] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption have effectively stimulated demand in certain industrial consumer goods, with prices for home appliances and durable goods rising between 2.4% and 5% [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing capacity management in key industries is promoting a rebalancing of market supply and demand, leading to price stabilization in sectors like coal, photovoltaic, cement, and lithium batteries [3] - The current price recovery reflects substantial improvements in domestic demand, although the recovery momentum is still accumulating and shows structural differentiation [4] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To sustain the positive trend in domestic demand, macro policies should continue to focus on optimizing consumption promotion strategies, especially during peak shopping seasons like "Double Eleven" and New Year [4] - Long-term policies should emphasize structural reforms on the supply side while closely integrating with demand recovery efforts to enhance consumer and business confidence [4]

政策作用进一步显现，核心 CPI 和 PPI 同 比升至年内高位 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | --- | --- | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 降息交易减速，方向尚未改变：——2025 | 2025-11-02 | | --- | --- | | 年 10 月 fomc 点评 | | | 政策增量已显现，助力企稳目标完成：10 | 2025-11-02 | | 月 PMI 点评 | | | 海外迎接四季度政策宽松窗口期：——海 | 2025-10-30 | | 外札记 20251027 | ...

10月份，扩内需等政策措施持续显效，叠加国庆、中秋长假带动，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨 0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续第6个月扩大。受国内 部分行业供需关系改善、国际大宗商品价格传导等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比由 上月持平转为上涨0.1%，为年内首次上涨；同比下降2.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点，连续第3个月 收窄。 专家认为，10月份各项物价数据指标的改善是全面的、好于季节性水平的，反映出经济循环进一步畅通 和内生动能稳步增强。 CPI同比由降转涨 CPI同比由上月下降0.3%转为上涨0.2%。其中，食品和能源价格仍处低位，但降幅均有收窄。扣除食品 和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续第6个月扩大，为2024年3月以来最高。服务价格自3月 份起逐步回升，本月上涨0.8%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。扣除能源的工业消费品价格上涨2.0%， 涨幅连续第6个月扩大；扩内需等政策效应继续显现，家用器具、文娱耐用消费品和家庭日用杂品价格 涨幅在2.4%—5.0%之间，燃油小汽车价格降幅收窄至2.3%。 东方金诚研究发 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumer demand, particularly in the service sector [2][3][4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 and reflecting a steady recovery in domestic consumption [3][4] - The increase in service prices, which rose by 0.8%, was driven by higher travel-related costs during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with hotel accommodation, flight tickets, and tourism prices rising significantly [3][4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October, marking the first rise of the year, driven by improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries [5][6] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.1%, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a narrowing trend in price drops across key sectors [7] - Specific industries such as coal mining, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, and lithium-ion battery production experienced price increases, while oil and gas extraction faced price declines due to international oil price fluctuations [6][7] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the improvement in price data reflects a comprehensive recovery in the economy, supported by macroeconomic policies and a balanced supply-demand relationship [8] - The overall price level is expected to rise moderately in the coming months, with CPI anticipated to recover gradually, characterized by strong food prices and weak energy prices [8] - The construction of a modern industrial system and the expansion of market demand are expected to drive price increases in related industries, although the real estate market's adjustment may continue to suppress prices in certain sectors [8]

本文来自格隆汇专栏：业谈债市 作者：杨业伟团队 主要观点 10月通胀数据显示，CPI由降转涨，PPI降幅收窄，黄金有色等部分商品价格对物价影响明显。10月CPI同比由上 月下降0.3%转为上涨0.2%，为今年2月以来最高值，CPI环比季节性水平高于前两年。PPI同比降幅收窄0.2个百 分点至-2.1%，连续第3个月收窄。黄金等部分商品价格上涨明显，显著推升了CPI与PPI增速，而同时，医疗、 旅游等部分服务价格也继续走强，部分反映定价调整和消费结构变化影响。 食品价格略有好转，金价仍是拉动CPI同比表现的主要分项，并驱动核心CPI持续上行。10月CPI同比上涨 0.2%，上月为下跌0.3%，环比上涨0.2%。其中，食品价格下降2.9%，降幅比上月收窄1.5个百分点，影响CPI同 比下降约0.54个百分点。受极端天气影响，蔬菜等部分食品价格涨幅明显，10月环比上涨4.3%，是食品价格上 涨的主要原因。而核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，为2024年3月以来最高，涨幅较上月扩大0.2个百分点。金价依然是核 心CPI上涨的主要原因。10月国内黄金期货价格同比增长52.8%，较9月增速大幅上行9.5pct，整体保持较高增速 ...

国家统计局11月9日发布数据显示，10月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%； 扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续第6个月扩大。工业生产者出厂价格指数 （PPI）环比由上月持平转为上涨0.1%，为年内首次上涨；同比下降2.1%，降幅连续第3个月收窄。 工业品价格运行方面，10月份PPI年内首次环比上涨，同比降幅连续第3个月收窄。供需改善是PPI环比 和同比表现均向好的重要因素。董莉娟介绍，环比看，供需关系改善带动部分行业价格上涨。煤炭开采 和洗选业价格上涨1.6%，煤炭加工价格上涨0.8%，光伏设备及元器件制造价格上涨0.6%。水泥制造、 计算机整机制造、锂离子电池制造、集成电路制造价格均由降转涨。 董莉娟指出，同比看，重点行业产能治理持续推进，相关行业价格同比降幅收窄。此外，现代化产业体 系加快构建和消费潜力有序释放也带动相关行业价格同比上涨。 （文章来源：证券时报） 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析，10月份，扩内需等政策措施持续显效，叠加国庆中秋假期带 动，CPI环比涨幅扩大，同比由降转涨，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI为2024年3月以来最高。 "今 ...

本报北京11月9日电 （记者刘志强）9日，国家统计局发布数据显示：10月份，居民消费价格指数 （CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续第六 个月扩大，为2024年3月以来最高；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比由上月持平转为上涨0.1%， 为年内首次上涨；同比下降2.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点，连续第三个月收窄。 CPI环比上涨0.2%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点且略高于季节性水平。服务价格由上月下降0.3%转为上 涨0.2%，高于季节性水平0.2个百分点，影响CPI环比上涨约0.07个百分点。 CPI同比由上月下降0.3%转为上涨0.2%。其中，食品和能源价格仍处低位，但降幅均有收窄。服务价格 自3月份起逐步回升，10月上涨0.8%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。扣除能源的工业消费品价格上涨 2.0%，涨幅连续第六个月扩大。扩内需等政策效应继续显现，家用器具、文娱耐用消费品和家庭日用 杂品价格涨幅在2.4%—5.0%之间。 《 人民日报 》（ 2025年11月10日 02 版） (责编：袁勃、赵欣悦) 关注公众号：人民网财经 ...

Core Insights - The inflation data for October indicates a steady recovery in China's economic vitality and domestic demand, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 0.2% and a core CPI increase of 1.2%, marking the highest level since March 2024 [2][5][14] CPI Analysis - The CPI turned from a decline of 0.3% in September to an increase of 0.2% in October, with food prices decreasing by 2.9%, but the decline has narrowed [3][6] - The core CPI's continuous rise suggests a robust recovery in domestic consumption, particularly in service consumption, indicating a solid foundation for overall prices [5][6] PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October, marking the first rise of the year, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1% [2][7] - Factors contributing to the narrowing decline in PPI include improved supply-demand relationships and ongoing capacity governance in key industries [9][10] Future Outlook - The outlook for inflation suggests a "strong food, weak energy, stable core" scenario, with potential for slight rebounds in food prices due to seasonal factors [6][10] - The government's focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing consumer spending is expected to support economic growth and stabilize inflation levels [12][14]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 11 09 年 月 日 宏观点评 CPI 转正的背后 事件：10 月 CPI 同比 0.2%，预期-0.1%，前值-0.3%；核心 CPI 同比 1.2%， 前值 1.0%；PPI 同比-2.1%，预期-2.3%，前值-2.3%。 核心观点：10 月 CPI 同比转正、创 9 个月以来新高，环比强于季节规律， 核心 CPI 涨幅连续第 6 个月扩大，主因节日出行带动服务价格上涨、家用 器具等核心消费品价格延续偏强；PPI 同比降幅连续 3 个月收窄，环比为 年内首度转正，"反内卷"、有色行业及一般日用品行业是主要拉动。往后 看，年内猪肉价格继续下跌空间不大，核心 CPI 预计仍有韧性，基数回落 下 11-12 月 CPI 同比预计温和回升，全年 CPI 中枢可能在 0%左右；考虑 到四季度翘尾效应不再显著，PPI 同比读数取决于六类大宗商品的价格走 势：原油、煤炭、螺纹钢、铜、碳酸锂和生猪。中性情形下，年内 PPI 预 计在当前水平低位震荡，2026 年 PPI 同比转正的可能性提升。继续提示： 当前经济有加速回落迹象、但无碍全年"保 5%"，且 ...