期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-09-16 8 月生产改善，投资放缓 ——中国 2025 年 8 月经济数据图景 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 9 月 15 日国家统计局数据显示，8 月份国民经济保持稳中有进发展态势，生产需求持续 增长，就业物价总体稳定，新质生产力培育壮大，高质量发展取得新成效。 核心观点 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 宏观事件 ■ 8 月工业生产改善 经济增长：8 月份全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.2%，环比增长 0.37%，1-8 月份， 全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.2%。 通货膨胀：8 月 PPI 降幅收窄。从数据上看能源与原材料供需压力边际缓解，外需行业 部分改善，升级类消费需求增加拉动部分行业价格同比上涨。8 月 CPI 同比下降，环比 持平，食品价格仍旧是拖累主因。8 月食品 CPI 同比下滑主要是受去年同期高基数效应 影响，而核心 CPI受扩内需促消费政策影响，涨幅连续 4个月扩大。预计三季度国内消 费将延续修复态势。 投资 ...

Group 1 - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Sichuan experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.1%, reversing a previous increase of 0.4%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, with the decline widening by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The month-on-month decline in CPI was influenced by three main factors: the end of the summer travel peak leading to a significant drop in air ticket prices by 11.9%, a reduction in refined oil prices, and seasonal discounts on certain clothing items [1] - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily driven by decreases in the prices of pork, fresh vegetables, and gasoline [1] Group 2 - In August, the price of pork decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 20.1% year-on-year, attributed to the concentrated market release of pigs and the off-peak consumption season [1] - Fresh vegetable prices increased by 3.4% month-on-month but decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, while fresh fruit prices fell by 3.7% month-on-month and by 4.6% year-on-year [1] - The effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption are becoming evident, with household appliance prices rising by 3.1% year-on-year and durable entertainment goods increasing by 2.4% year-on-year [2]

四川8月CPI同比下降0.9%机票价格回落明显 9月11日，国家统计局四川调查总队发布数据显示，8月四川居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比由上月上涨 0.4%转为下降0.1%；同比下降0.9%，降幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点。1到8月平均，CPI比去年同期下降 0.3%。 国家统计局四川调查总队消费价格调查处相关负责人表示，CPI环比下降主要受三方面因素影响：一是 暑期出行旺季逐步进入尾声，机票价格回落明显，8月四川机票价格环比下降11.9%；二是成品油价格 下调；三是部分服装季节性打折。CPI同比下降则主要受猪肉、鲜菜、汽油三大商品价格下降影响。 具体来看，8月，四川猪肉价格环比下降0.4%，同比下降20.1%。上述负责人分析，8月部分二次育肥猪 集中出栏，加之猪肉消费仍处淡季，导致猪肉价格环比再度走弱。同比由于去年同月猪肉价格同比上涨 19.1%，基数较高，影响今年同比降幅较大。 8月，鲜菜价格环比上涨3.4%，同比下降17.2%。上述负责人表示，8月鲜菜价格一度受到高温少雨天气 影响，但得益于国内大流通、大市场的持续发展，农产品批发市场通过强化货源组织，调配不同产区货 源，保障了供应，抑制了菜价涨幅。而今年华 ...

Group 1 - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Sichuan experienced a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, reversing from a 0.4% increase in the previous month, and a year-on-year decline of 0.9%, with the decline rate widening by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The month-on-month decline in CPI was influenced by three main factors: the end of the summer travel peak leading to a significant drop in air ticket prices by 11.9%, a reduction in refined oil prices, and seasonal discounts on certain clothing items [1] - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily driven by decreases in the prices of pork, fresh vegetables, and gasoline [1] Group 2 - In August, the price of pork decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 20.1% year-on-year, attributed to the concentrated market release of pigs and the off-peak consumption season [1] - Fresh vegetable prices increased by 3.4% month-on-month but decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, while fresh fruit prices fell by 3.7% month-on-month and by 4.6% year-on-year [1] - The effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption are becoming evident, with household appliance prices rising by 3.1% year-on-year and durable entertainment goods increasing by 2.4% year-on-year [2]

Inflation Data Summary - In August, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 0.2% and down from the previous month's 0.0%[3] - The PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations but improving from a previous decline of 3.6%[3] - Core CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the highest level in 18 months and continuing to improve for four consecutive months[5] Price Dynamics - Food prices significantly dragged down the overall CPI, with food items declining by 4.3% year-on-year, compared to a 1.6% decline in the previous month[5] - Pork prices saw a substantial drop of 16.1% year-on-year, contributing to the weaker-than-expected CPI data[5] - Service items and industrial consumer goods prices remained stable, with service CPI increasing by 0.6% year-on-year and industrial consumer goods rising by 1.5%[5] PPI Insights - The PPI's month-on-month change stabilized at 0.0%, marking the first halt in decline since November 2024[8] - Upstream prices showed notable stabilization, particularly in black metal mining and smelting, with increases of 2.1% and 1.9% respectively[8] - Downstream industrial product prices showed minimal improvement, with automotive and general machinery PPI declining slightly[8] Future Outlook - The weak August CPI reflects a significant divergence in consumption structure, primarily influenced by high base effects and supply-side factors[6] - There is potential for CPI to gradually recover post high base effects, especially if international commodity prices rebound and domestic policies align[10]

Core Viewpoints - The transmission effect of upstream price increases to downstream is weakening, with PPI showing marginal improvement in August due to significant recovery in commodity prices [2][10][70] - The overall PPI remained at 0% month-on-month, primarily due to low capacity utilization in downstream sectors, which hindered the reflection of upstream price increases [2][10][70] PPI Analysis - In August, PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.9%, an improvement of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations [2][10][70] - Major commodities like coal and steel continued to rise, contributing positively to PPI, while international oil price declines negatively impacted domestic oil prices [2][10][70] - Downstream sectors are experiencing significant price reductions, with PPI declines in industries such as food and automobiles, which saw respective month-on-month decreases of 0.3% [2][10][70] CPI Analysis - CPI year-on-year fell to -0.4% in August, influenced by a high base from the previous year and weak food prices, with food CPI dropping by 4.3% [3][23][50] - The core CPI is expanding, with core goods CPI rising by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, driven by high gold prices and demand from the third batch of national subsidies [3][29][71] - Service CPI showed slight growth, supported by summer travel and healthcare service reforms, while rental prices remained weak due to high youth unemployment [4][33][62] Future Outlook - Commodity prices are expected to continue rising, but excess supply in downstream sectors may limit the transmission of price increases from upstream [4][72] - Year-end PPI is projected to recover to a maximum of -2.1%, while CPI may remain negative in Q3 but could turn positive in Q4 due to policy support for service consumption [4][72]

Core Insights - The price data for August 2025 shows a divergence between CPI and PPI, indicating a gradual recovery from low levels [1][2][5] - CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year, with both indices remaining stable month-on-month [1][4] CPI Analysis - The CPI decline is characterized by a 0.3% decrease in urban areas and a 0.6% decrease in rural areas, with food prices dropping by 4.3% and non-food prices rising by 0.5% [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous rise for four months, driven by policies like "old-for-new" subsidies and rising international gold prices [2][3] PPI Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 2.9% shows a narrowing of the drop by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, with industrial producer purchase prices down by 4.0% year-on-year [4][7] - The recovery of PPI is contingent on sustained "de-involution" policies and timely demand-side stimulus [4][6] Consumer Demand and Price Recovery - Consumer demand is at a critical recovery stage, with expectations of a gradual CPI increase as counter-cyclical policies take effect [5][6] - The improvement in consumer goods prices is attributed to the implementation of consumption promotion policies and the gradual restart of "old-for-new" programs [3][5] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Certain sectors, such as coal and steel, have seen price increases due to improved market competition and demand, with coal processing prices rising by 9.7% in August [6][7] - High-tech product demand is also contributing to price increases in related industries, with integrated circuit packaging prices up by 1.1% year-on-year [6][7]

宏 观 研 究 物价数据 2025 年 09 月 10 日 为何大宗涨价拉不起 PPI？ ——通胀数据点评（25.08） 事件：9 月 10 日，国家统计局公布 8 月通胀数据，CPI 同比-0.4%、前值 0%、预期-0.2%、 环比 0%；PPI 同比-2.9%、前值-3.6%、预期-2.9%、环比 0%。 核心服务 CPI 同比在暑期出行、医疗服务改革等支撑下延续上涨，而房租 CPI 因青年就业 问题持续弱于季节性。8 月，服务 CPI 同比较前月小幅上行 0.1pct 至 0.6%。结构上，核 心服务 CPI 环比 0%、符合季节性（0%），一方面受暑期出行支撑；统计在食品中的在外 餐饮 CPI 同比上行 0.8pct 至 1.9%。另外医疗服务改革持续拉动医疗服务价格上涨，同比 +0.5pct 至 1.6%。而房租 CPI 受青年失业率较高的拖累，8 月环比 0%、不及季节性。 ⚫ 核心观点：上游涨价对 PPI 环比贡献转正，但中下游产能利用率偏低对 PPI 拖累仍较大。 统计因素的扰动消退后，8 月 PPI 边际改善，主要表现为大宗商品价格对 PPI 环比拉动明 显回升。PPI 为每月 5 日、2 ...

事件： 9月10日，国家统计局公布8月通胀数据，CPI同比-0.4%、前值0%、预期-0.2%、环比0%；PPI同 比-2.9%、前值-3.6%、预期-2.9%、环比0%。 核心观点：上游涨价对PPI环比贡献转正，但中下游产能利用率偏低对PPI拖累仍较大。 统计因素的扰动消退后，8月PPI边际改善，主要表现为大宗商品价格对PPI环比拉动明显回升。 PPI为每 月5日、20日调查单价的简单平均值，而反内卷带动的涨价集中于7月下旬，因此统计上涨价现象在8月 PPI集中体现。数据上8月煤、钢价格延续回升，而煤炭采选（2.8%）黑色采选（2.1%）、黑色压延 （1.9%）环比转正。而国际油价下行拖累国内油价、铜价对本月PPI贡献也为负， 测算大宗商品价格拉 动PPI环比0.3%。 但整体PPI环比为0%，主因中下游产能利用率偏低导致中下游价格无法充分反映上游涨价传导，测算该 因素拖累PPI环比-0.3%。 与2016年上游涨价向下游传导不同的是，本轮供给过剩更多在中下游，导致上 游涨价向下游传导受阻。目前下游主动降价现象突出，如石化链下游PPI跌幅大于上游价格理论传导幅 度；机械设备、消费下游亦类似， 测算8月中下游 ...

宏观动态报告 CPI 低位承压, PPI 低点已过 8 月物价数据解读 2025 年 9 月 10 日 提振消费政策叠加低价竞争治理效果渐显,交通工具价格连续两个月持 ● 平:7月下旬第三批补贴资金已经下发各地,部分地区的以旧换新逐步重启, 补贴方式也更加多元化,带动需求持续回暖,支撑交通工具环比在连续五个月 下行后连续两个月价格持平。8月中旬,两部委发布《关于加强智能网联新能 源汽车产品召回、生产一致性监督管理与规范宣传的通知(征求意见稿)》, 就新能源汽车商业宣传、事件事故报告等方面征求意见,综合整治反内卷政策 举措向更广泛无序竞争领域推进,汽车行业低价无序竞争效果渐显。其它项 中,通信工具价格本月由涨转跌至-0.1%,服装和中药价格环比分别下降 0.1% 和 0.3%;医疗服务和家用器具价格环比分别上涨 0.5%和 1.1%。 核心价格同比持续回升:8月份核心 CPI 同比上涨 0.9%,涨幅比上月扩大 ● 0.1 个百分点。其中，金饰品和铂金饰品价格同比分别上涨 36.7%和 29.8%, 分析师 张迪 合计影响 CPI 同比上涨约 0.22个百分点;家用器具和文娱耐用消费品价格同 比涨幅分别扩大至 ...