投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 乐观情绪未退，矿价偏强运行 | ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所走弱，钢厂临检增多，矿石终端消耗开始回落，但仍位于相对高位，给予矿 价支撑。同时，财年末冲量结束，矿商发运如期回落，而港口到货也环比减量，海外矿石供应迎来收 缩，相应的内矿生产相对积极，矿石供应有所收缩，关注后续降幅情况。目前来看，政策利好预期发 酵，乐观情绪未退，支撑矿价短期维持偏强运行态势，但矿石供需格局走弱，上行高度谨慎乐观，关 注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of iron ore prices is strong, but there are concerns about iron ore demand, and the supply is stable. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited, so be cautiously optimistic about the upward height and pay attention to the performance of finished steel products [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillating and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the market sentiment is positive and the ore price is running strongly [1] Market Driving Logic - Policy利好 expectations are fermenting, the market sentiment is positive, and the iron ore futures price has strengthened again. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has improved. Steel mills are actively producing, and the resilience of ore demand is acceptable, which supports the ore price, but its sustainability needs to be tracked. After the end of the fiscal - year - end rush, the shipments of miners have begun to decline, and the port arrivals have decreased month - on - month. Overseas ore supply has shrunk, but the domestic ore production has recovered actively, so the overall supply reduction is limited [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillatory and strong, and the medium - term view is bullish. The main supporting force in the market comes from the positive policy expectations. After the marginal weakening of credit and inflation indicators in May, the expectation of policy support has increased. The policy guidance of important meetings needs to be concerned in the future market, and the sustainability of the optimistic market atmosphere can be focused on in the short term [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is bullish, the intraday view is oscillatory and strong, and the reference view is oscillatory and strong. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is oscillatory and strong, and the medium - term view is bullish. The reference view is oscillatory and strong. Yesterday, all stock indices rose significantly unilaterally and pulled up rapidly in the afternoon. The total market turnover of the stock market was 1639.4 billion yuan, an increase of 191.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The large - finance, military, and semiconductor sectors led the gains. Affected by the news of "stablecoins", the valuation expectation of securities brokers has risen rapidly. Overall, the main support in the market comes from the positive policy expectations [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of the stock index is mainly range - bound, with an upward mid - term trend and a slightly stronger intraday trend. The policy - side positive expectations provide strong support, but the short - term policy driving force is insufficient [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is "oscillation", the mid - term view is "rise", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the mid - term view is "rise", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". The core logic is that the domestic macro - economic indicators have weakened marginally recently, and the weak performance of credit and inflation data indicates that there is still downward pressure on domestic demand. More policies to support demand are needed, so the expectation of policy benefits has increased. However, there is no clear policy signal in the short term, and the incremental policy signals are expected to come out after the Politburo meeting in July. Although the market sentiment has recovered, the short - term policy driving force is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the overseas uncertainties such as the Middle East situation and the Sino - US tariff war [5]

Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index is that it will mainly fluctuate within a range, while the medium - term view is an upward trend. The core logic is that although there are policy - side positive expectations, there is a lack of clear short - term policy signals, and overseas geopolitical and tariff issues also affect market sentiment [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that policy - side positive expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound. Last Friday, the stock index trends were oscillatory and differentiated, with IH and IF slightly rising and IC and IM slightly falling. The central bank's 6 - month LPR quote was in line with market expectations. Domestic macro - economic indicators have weakened marginally, and there is a need for more demand - supporting policies, increasing policy - side positive expectations. However, there are no clear short - term policy signals, and the policy - side driving force is insufficient in the short term. Overseas, the Middle - East geopolitical crisis and the approaching tariff - war deadline affect market sentiment, so the stock index will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For IH2509, short - term outlook is oscillatory, medium - term is upward, and intraday is oscillatory and bullish, with an overall view of range - bound oscillation supported by positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. Short - term, the stock index will mainly oscillate within a range due to various factors such as geopolitical risks, weak domestic economic data, and uncertain external factors [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, short - term: oscillatory; medium - term: upward; intraday: oscillatory and bullish; view reference: range - bound oscillation; core logic: policy - side positive expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Variety: IF, IH, IC, IM. Intraday view: oscillatory and bullish; medium - term view: upward; reference view: range - bound oscillation. Core logic: yesterday, stock indices oscillated and pulled back. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and weak domestic economic data like credit and inflation data lead to an expectation of more supportive policies. Currently, the support for stock indices comes from loose capital and risk preference, and new incremental policies are needed for further upward movement. There are uncertainties in external factors, so short - term market risk preference is defensive, and stock indices will mainly oscillate within a range [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with the medium - term view being upward and the intraday view being oscillating strongly. Policy - side positive expectations provide strong support, but the upward momentum of the stock index is insufficient due to concerns about weakening macro - demand [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly. The reference view is range - bound, and the core logic is that policy - side positive expectations form strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is upward. The reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the stock indexes closed slightly up in oscillation yesterday. The Middle - East geopolitical crisis continues but with reduced escalation risk, and market risk - aversion has declined. May's social financing, credit, and consumption data show that government bonds are the main contributor to social financing, but the real - sector's financing demand is weak, so policy - side support is still needed. The stock index has sufficient downward support. Attention should be paid to the financial policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18th. Market sentiment is restricted by concerns about weakening macro - demand, and the upward momentum of the stock index is insufficient [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index futures is interval oscillation. Policy利好预期 forms a strong bottom support, while overseas uncertainty risks restrict the upward space of the stock index. [1][4] - The short - term view of IH2506 is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias, with an overall view of interval oscillation. [1] - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, IM is oscillation with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is interval oscillation. [4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias. The core logic is that there are both policy - side利好 expectations and external uncertainty risks. [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and sorted within a narrow range. The stock market trading volume was 107.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.03 billion yuan compared with the previous day. Recently, the trading volume has been stable at around 1 trillion yuan, indicating that investors' wait - and - see sentiment has increased and the willingness to chase up is not strong. [4] - On one hand, due to the approaching May Day holiday, investors are cautious about the holiday's uncertainty risks. On the other hand, the stock index has rebounded to the gap position in early April and faces technical selling pressure when continuing to rise. [4] - After the Politburo meeting last Friday, the domestic policy side released signals of stabilizing expectations and confidence in the context of rising external environmental uncertainty. However, there is no signal of concentrated policy intensification yet. Attention can be paid to the performance of subsequent macro - economic indicators. If economic data weakens, policy expectations will increase. [4]