Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **沪镍**: The nickel price rebounded last week, with producers showing some reluctance to sell and traders remaining cautious. Some production capacities have reduced output, leading to a shortage of certain supplies. The price of nickel ore remains firm, and ocean freight rates are stable. Indonesia's 2026 RKAB quota is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply outlook. The price of nickel iron shows signs of stabilizing, with most remaining flat and a small portion still declining. Stainless steel inventories are rising, and demand remains weak. Refined nickel inventories are persistently high, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited. The conclusion is that the Shanghai nickel 2601 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and it is advisable to short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, ocean freight rates are stable, and the price of nickel iron has stopped falling, with most remaining flat. The cost line is stable, and stainless steel inventories are rising. The conclusion is that the stainless steel 2601 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices**: From November 28 to December 1, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract rose from 117,010 to 117,850, an increase of 840; the London nickel futures rose from 14,820 to 14,875, an increase of 55; the stainless steel futures main contract rose from 12,355 to 12,445, an increase of 90. Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel rose from 119,500 to 119,750, an increase of 250; 1 Jinchuan nickel rose from 121,900 to 122,150, an increase of 250; 1 imported nickel rose from 117,550 to 117,750, an increase of 200; nickel beans rose from 119,600 to 119,800, an increase of 200. The price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel remained flat in major regions [10]. Inventory Changes - **Nickel Inventory**: As of November 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 40,782 tons, with the futures inventory at 33,309 tons, an increase of 987 tons and a decrease of 476 tons respectively. On December 1, the London nickel inventory was 254,364, a decrease of 396 from November 28; the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,722, a decrease of 587; the total inventory was 287,086, a decrease of 983 [12][13]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On November 28, the inventory in Wuxi was 579,400 tons, in Foshan was 355,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1,086,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,400 tons. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 669,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,400 tons. On December 1, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 62,998, a decrease of 121 from November 28 [17][18]. Cost - related - **Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices**: The price of red clay nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% remained at 57 US dollars per wet ton, and with Ni0.9% remained at 29 US dollars per wet ton. Ocean freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) decreased from 883 to 882 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) remained at 3,200 yuan per ton [22]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel is 12,488 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel is 12,823 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel is 16,272 yuan [24]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The calculated import price is 119,116 yuan per ton [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the prices of coking coal and coke will likely weaken in the short term. Coking coal faces challenges such as slow production growth, poor new orders, and inventory pressure, while coke has issues like increased production, inventory backlog, and weak downstream demand [2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Coal mine production is mostly normal, but output growth is slow. Spot trading is average, speculative sentiment has declined, and new orders are poor. Some mines face inventory pressure, and prices are expected to drop further [2] - Basis: The spot price is 1190, with a basis of 97, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons from last week [2] - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below it [2] - Main Position: The main net short position in coking coal has decreased [2] - Expectation: Coking enterprises aim to cut raw material coal prices, and currently purchase only for immediate needs. Prices are expected to weaken in the short term [2] Coke - Fundamentals: Due to falling coal prices, coke production has increased, but shipments are blocked, and inventory has accumulated, resulting in a relatively loose supply [6] - Basis: The spot price is 1600, with a basis of 19.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6] - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week [6] - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below it [6] - Main Position: The main net short position in coke has decreased [6] - Expectation: Although the first - round coke price cut has reduced profit margins, coke production continues to increase due to larger coal price drops. Steel mills still want to lower coke prices, and prices are expected to weaken in the short term [6] Influencing Factors Coking Coal - Bullish: Rising hot metal production and limited supply growth [4] - Bearish: Slower procurement of raw material coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4] Coke - Bullish: Rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rates [8] - Bearish: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially over - drawn restocking demand [8] Price Quotes - Mysteel provided the import coking coal spot price quotes on December 1 at 17:30, including prices for various types of coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports [9] - Mysteel also provided the port metallurgical coke price index on December 1 at 17:30, showing prices and price changes of different grades of metallurgical coke from different origins at various ports [10] Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18] - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22] - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27] Other Data - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [40] - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 29.4823%, a month - on - month increase of 3.056 percentage points. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure [7]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 27.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.12 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 10.5658%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 474.97 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.30%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,102.9986 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil strengthened, and it is expected that the cost support will strengthen in the short term [7]. - Market Outlook: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2,969 - 3,023 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The supply pressure is high. The planned output of local refineries in November 2025 increased, and the capacity utilization rate and output of sample enterprises increased this week [7]. - **Demand**: The overall demand is weak, and the开工 rates of various types of asphalt and related products are lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The asphalt processing loss increased, but the strengthening of crude oil provides short - term cost support [7]. - **Other Factors**: The basis is neutral; the inventory is in a state of continuous destocking, which is neutral; the disk is bearish; the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of most asphalt contracts decreased slightly, and the inventory of various types decreased, including a 2.51% month - on - month decrease in social inventory, a 9.50% month - on - month decrease in factory inventory, and a 28.75% month - on - month decrease in port diluted asphalt inventory [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for spread trading analysis [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Presents the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025, which is important for understanding the refining profit margins [29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025, providing insights into the relative value of these commodities [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: Displays the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the profitability of asphalt production [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: Shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which is crucial for refineries' production decisions [41][42]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: Presents the historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the market supply situation [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: Shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025, which is related to the raw material supply of asphalt production [46][47]. - **Production Volume**: Displays the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the overall supply capacity [50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: Shows the historical trends of the price of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025, which affects the cost and supply of asphalt raw materials [53][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: Presents the historical monthly production volumes of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the production contribution of local refineries [56][57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: Displays the historical weekly capacity utilization rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025, which is an important indicator of the supply capacity [59][60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: Shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation of asphalt production from 2018 to 2025, which is related to the supply interruption [63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which is related to the market supply and demand balance [66][67]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: Shows the historical trends of social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025, reflecting the inventory levels in different sectors [70]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: Displays the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025, which helps to understand the inventory management of factories [73]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: - **Export and Import Trends**: Presents the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which is related to the international market demand and supply [76][77]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Price Spread Trend**: Shows the historical trends of the import price spread of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which is important for import cost analysis [80][81]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: Displays the historical monthly production volumes of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt as a by - product [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: Presents the historical monthly apparent consumption volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the overall market demand [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Infrastructure - Related Demand**: Shows the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [88][90]. - **Mechanical Equipment Demand**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025, which are related to the demand for asphalt in construction projects [92][95]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: Presents the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the production activity in the heavy - traffic asphalt sector [97][98]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: Shows the historical trends of construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand structure of different types of asphalt [101]. - **Downstream开工率**: Displays the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025, which are related to the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [103][106]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: - The report provides a monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to November 2025, including monthly production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data [108][109].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc ZN2601 is expected to be an oscillating rebound. The previous trading day saw an oscillating rebound in Shanghai zinc, with shrinking trading volume and small reductions in both long and short positions. Technically, the price is near the long - term moving average with strong support, short - term indicator KDJ is rising in the weak area, and the trend indicator shows that both long and short forces are rising and becoming intertwined [2][19] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc sheet production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons [2] 2. Basis - The spot price is 22,460, and the basis is +35, indicating a neutral situation [2] 3. Inventory - On November 28, LME zinc inventory increased by 950 tons to 51,750 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,501 tons to 67,617 tons [2] 4. Futures Market Quotes - On November 28, the zinc futures of different delivery months showed various price changes. For example, for the 2512 delivery month, the previous settlement price was 22,440, the opening price was 22,320, the highest price was 22,420, the lowest price was 22,280, and the closing price was 22,385 [3] 5. Spot Market Quotes - On November 28, the price of domestic zinc concentrate had different levels. The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate comprehensive TC was 70 US dollars/dry ton. The price of 0 zinc in different regions also varied, such as 22,460 yuan/ton in Shanghai, 22,300 yuan/ton in Guangdong, 22,370 yuan/ton in Tianjin, and 22,530 yuan/ton in Zhejiang [4] 6. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From November 17 to November 27, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased from 162,400 tons to 140,400 tons. Compared with November 20, it decreased by 19,400 tons, and compared with November 24, it decreased by 11,200 tons [5] 7. Zinc Warrant Report - On November 28, the total zinc warrants of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 67,617 tons, a decrease of 1,501 tons. Different regions had different warrant changes, such as a decrease of 872 tons in Guangdong and a decrease of 224 tons in Tianjin [6] 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On November 28, the LME zinc inventory had different changes in different locations, with a total increase of 950 tons to 51,750 tons [7] 9. Zinc Concentrate Price - On November 28, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities was around 18,210 - 18,610 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 70 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [9] 10. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On November 28, the price of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters decreased by 80 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Mochazhaojing was 22,640 yuan/ton, and that from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 23,070 yuan/ton [12] 11. Refined Zinc Production - In October 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 524,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and a 2.88% increase compared to the planned value. The planned production for November is 522,300 tons [15] 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On November 28, the processing fee of 50% - grade domestic zinc concentrate was around 2,200 - 2,800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate processing fee was 60 - 80 US dollars/dry ton, with a decrease of 10 US dollars/dry ton [17] 13. Member Trading and Position Ranking - On November 28, in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, for zinc trading, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 28,212 lots, Orient Futures (on behalf of clients) with 24,739 lots, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 22,295 lots. In terms of long positions, the top three were Orient Futures (on behalf of clients) with 10,229 lots, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 9,694 lots, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 7,863 lots. In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 16,159 lots, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 8,976 lots, and Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 5,056 lots [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper supply is subject to disruptions with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap - copper policies being relaxed. The November China Manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement. The overall assessment of the fundamentals is neutral [2]. - The spot price is 87360 with a basis of - 70, indicating a discount to the futures, which is neutral [2]. - On November 28, copper inventories increased by 2250 to 159425 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 12673 tons to 97930 tons compared with the previous week, a neutral situation [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upwards, showing a bullish trend [2]. - The net position of the main players is long, but the long positions are decreasing, also showing a bullish trend [2]. - With inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances remaining (such as the event at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine), copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The supply - side of copper has disturbances, and the PMI shows marginal improvement. The overall fundamentals, basis, and inventory are neutral; the price trend and main - player positions are bullish. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of trade wars, but specific details of the impact on copper prices are not elaborated [3]. Spot - The document provides a table format for spot information including location, mid - price, price change, and inventory details, but specific data is not filled in [6]. 期现价差 No specific content provided. Exchange Inventory No specific content provided. Bonded Area Inventory - Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - Processing fees are falling [15]. CFTC No specific content provided. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market will be in a tight balance. A detailed China annual supply - demand balance table for copper is also provided [19][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples decreased, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. The demand side is generally lower than the historical average level. The cost side indicates that the profit from asphalt processing is in deficit, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken. Overall, the asphalt market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 fluctuating between 3017 - 3069 [8]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 245,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.28%, and the sample enterprise output was 441,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 958,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.59%. The refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. The demand side shows that the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 24.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 10.587%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 34%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit was - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Basis**: On November 26, the spot price in Shandong was 3020 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 23 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 794,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%; the in - plant inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. The social and in - plant inventories continued to decline, while the port inventory continued to increase [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increased [8]. - **Expectation**: The refineries have recently reduced production to ease supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected. The inventory remains stable, and the crude oil is weak. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 fluctuating between 3017 - 3069 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [17][19]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 - 2025 [25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025 [28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [41]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report presents the historical port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2021 - 2025 [47]. - **Output**: The report shows the historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [50]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The report presents the historical price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly output trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The report shows the historical output trend of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report presents the historical weekly capacity utilization rate trend of asphalt from 2021 - 2025 [60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the historical maintenance loss estimation trend of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [63]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents the historical trends of total, social, and in - plant exchange warehouse receipts of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [66]. - **Social and In - Plant Inventories**: The report shows the historical trends of social and in - plant inventories of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [70]. - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report presents the historical in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio trend of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [73]. - **Import and Export Situation**: The report shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [76][79]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The report presents the historical output trend of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025 [82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [85]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction transportation fixed - asset investment and new local special bonds from 2019 - 2025, as well as the year - on - year change trend of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 - 2024 [88]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [92]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report presents the historical capacity utilization rate trend of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [97]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical capacity utilization rate trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [100]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: The report presents the historical capacity utilization rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 - 2025 [101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to November 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [106].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc may be weak in the short term, but the Shanghai Zinc ZN2601 is expected to oscillate and rebound. The price is near the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term indicator KDJ is rising and operating in the weak area, and the trend indicator shows that the long - position strength is rising while the short - position strength is falling, with the long - and short - position forces starting to stalemate [2][19] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, which is bullish [2] - The basis is +145 with the spot price at 22,500, which is bullish [2] - On November 26, LME zinc inventory increased by 1,925 tons to 49,925 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 2,199 tons to 71,620 tons, which is neutral [2] - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed an oscillating trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is bearish [2] - The main net position is short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [2] 2. Market Data 2.1 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on November 26 - The trading volume of zinc futures on November 26 was 151,297 lots, and the trading value was 1.69183407 billion yuan. The open interest was 190,070 lots, a decrease of 821 lots [3] 2.2 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on November 26 - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 80 US dollars/dry ton, both unchanged [4] - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 22,450 - 22,550 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,240 - 22,340 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,345 - 22,445 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 22,505 - 22,605 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [4] 2.3 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (November 13 - 24, 2025) - As of November 24, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in China's main markets was 1.517 million tons, a decrease of 10,700 tons compared with November 17 and a decrease of 8,200 tons compared with November 20 [5] 2.4 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on November 26 - The total SHFE zinc warrant on November 26 was 71,620 tons, a decrease of 2,199 tons [6] 2.5 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on November 26 - The LME zinc inventory on November 26 was 49,925 tons, an increase of 1,925 tons [7] 2.6 Zinc Concentrate Price Summary in National Main Cities on November 26 - The price of 50% zinc concentrate in various regions increased by 20 yuan/ton [9] 2.7 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes in the National Market on November 26 - The price of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters ranged from 22,100 to 23,100 yuan/ton [12] 2.8 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The planned production value in October was 509,600 tons, the actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and a 2.88% increase compared with the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 73.33%, and the planned production in November was 522,300 tons [15] 2.9 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on November 26 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% grade ranged from 2,100 to 2,800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported processing fee for 48% grade was 70 - 90 US dollars/dry ton [17] 2.10 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on November 26 - The total trading volume of members was 151,221 lots, an increase of 22,642 lots; the total long - position was 71,988 lots, a decrease of 662 lots; the total short - position was 70,148 lots, an increase of 1,765 lots [18]

Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - The overall supply pressure of PVC is increasing, and the demand may remain weak. The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is also decreasing. The inventory is at a neutral level. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4465 - 4517. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [4][6]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.83%, with no month - on - month change. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 345,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.65%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,660 tons, a month - on - month decrease of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 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每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-11-26 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1140元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1173元/吨，基差为-33元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存164.44万吨，较前一周减少3.68%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 1、23年以来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on Iron Ore 2601 are all in a state of shock, with an overall view of shock and weakness. The short - term positive factors have fermented, and the ore price is in a high - level shock [1]. - The iron ore supply remains high while the demand weakens, and the fundamentals of the ore market have not improved. The ore price is still under pressure. The short - term support comes from the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the ore price is expected to continue the shock operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock and weakness, and the overall view is shock and weakness. The core logic is that short - term positive factors have fermented, leading to a high - level shock in ore prices [1]. 3.2 Calculation Rules for Rise and Fall - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price on the same day to calculate the rise - fall range. A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is shock and weakness, a rise of 0 - 1% is shock and strength, and a rise greater than 1% is strong. The shock - strength/weakness only applies to intraday views, and there is no distinction for short - term and medium - term views [2]. 3.3 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production has stabilized, the terminal consumption of ore has weakened, and the profitability of steel mills is poor, so the ore demand is expected to remain weak. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased significantly, the overseas miners' shipments have decreased, but both are still at a high level within the year. Overseas supply is active, and domestic ore supply is stable. The ore supply remains high. Overall, the ore market fundamentals have not improved, and the ore price is still under pressure. The short - term support comes from the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the ore price is expected to continue the shock operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]