Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and it is necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4992 - 5110 [9][13]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - **Base Spread**: On August 6th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 71 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [10]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 34534 tons, a 3.28% decrease from the previous period. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 26919 tons, a 3.12% decrease, and ethylene factory inventory was 7615 tons, a 3.85% decrease. Social inventory was 44800 tons, a 4.91% increase. The production enterprise's inventory - holding days were 5.8 days, a 3.33% decrease, presenting a bearish situation [10]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below MA20, showing a neutral signal [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a 0.67% increase from the previous month. This week, the sample enterprise's capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, with no change from the previous week. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 32458 tons, a 4.06% decrease, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 12770 tons, a 12.82% increase. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase significantly [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.05%, a 0.169 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 37%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 32.96%, a 0.439 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 77%, unchanged from the previous period, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 70.82%, a 5.25 - percentage - point decrease, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. Current demand may remain weak [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 20.9487 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 84% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 478.9958 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 5% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2730.05 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 1.4% from the previous period, higher than the historical average. Production scheduling may increase [8]. 3. PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market data, including price changes of different types of PVC, inter - month spreads, inventory data, downstream operating rates, profit, cost, and other information [16]. 4. PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend The report shows the historical data of PVC basis, spot price, and main contract closing price, helping to analyze the relationship between the spot and futures markets [19]. 5. PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread The report shows the historical data of the main contract spreads of PVC futures, which is helpful for understanding the price differences between different contracts [25]. 6. PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - **Lancoke**: It shows the historical data of Lancoke prices, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production, which is helpful for analyzing the impact of Lancoke on the calcium carbide method of PVC production [28]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It shows the historical data of calcium carbide prices, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production, which is helpful for analyzing the impact of calcium carbide on the calcium carbide method of PVC production [31]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It shows the historical data of liquid chlorine prices, production, raw salt prices, and production, which is helpful for understanding the cost factors in the calcium carbide method of PVC production [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: It shows the historical data of caustic soda prices, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory, which is helpful for analyzing the impact of caustic soda on the calcium carbide method of PVC production [35][38]. 7. PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend It shows the historical data of calcium carbide method and ethylene method capacity utilization rates, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of PVC, which is helpful for analyzing the supply situation of PVC [40][41]. 8. PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It shows the historical data of PVC daily trader sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin). It also shows the historical data of real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year, which is helpful for analyzing the demand situation of PVC [43][45][47]. - For paste resin, it shows the historical data of profit, monthly production, cost, and apparent consumption [50][53]. 9. PVC Fundamental - Inventory It shows the historical data of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days, which is helpful for analyzing the inventory situation of PVC [60]. 10. PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method It shows the historical data of vinyl chloride imports, dichloroethane imports, PVC exports, ethylene method FOB price difference (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import price difference (Jiangsu - Far East CIF), which is helpful for analyzing the ethylene - based PVC market [62]. 11. PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It shows the monthly supply - demand data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports, and presents the monthly supply - demand trend chart of PVC [65].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-7） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：山西超产检查扰动不断，区域资源有偏紧预期。市场情绪逐步回归，下游接货谨慎，炼焦 煤涨价氛围有所降温，线上竞拍涨势趋缓，但考虑目前煤矿库存压力较小，从而挺价意愿较强，且因焦 煤期货再次偏强上涨，部分煤种报价仍在小幅上行；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1090，基差-131；现货贴水期货；偏空 每日观点 焦炭： 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 6、预期：焦炭第五轮提涨全面落地，焦企开工维持高位，钢厂铁水产量也在高位波动，焦煤刚需依然 强劲。但目前钢焦企业补库节奏有所放缓，多数以按需采 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC has rebounded, with domestic demand recovery being sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4984 - 5100. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8][9]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is not smooth [13]. - The main influencing factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, export advantages, overall supply pressure rebound, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Base Price**: On August 5th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 62 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [10]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 34534 tons, a 3.28% decrease from the previous period. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 26919 tons, a 3.12% decrease, and ethylene factory inventory was 7615 tons, a 3.85% decrease. Social inventory was 44800 tons, a 4.91% increase. The number of days of inventory in production enterprises was 5.8 days, a 3.33% decrease, showing a bearish signal [10]. - **Market Trend**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below MA20, showing a neutral signal [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and short positions decreased, showing a bearish signal [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a 0.67% increase from the previous month. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.84%, with no change from the previous period. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 32458 tons, a 4.06% decrease, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 12770 tons, a 12.82% increase. Supply pressure increased this week. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [7]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.05%, a 0.169 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 37%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 32.96%, a 0.439 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 77%, unchanged from the previous period, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 70.82%, a 5.25 - percentage - point decrease, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous. Current demand may remain weak [8]. 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 20.9487 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 84.00% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 478.9958 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 5.00% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2690.05 yuan/ton, with a profit increase of 0.70% from the previous period, higher than the historical average, and production scheduling may increase [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and operating rates of different production methods and regions [16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - **Base Price Trend**: The report presents the historical trend chart of the base price of PVC futures [18]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It shows the price, trading volume, and position trends of the PVC futures main contract [22]. - **Spread Analysis**: It provides the historical trend chart of the spread of the PVC futures main contract [24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - **Lancoke**: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production trends of Lancoke [28]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide [31]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: The price, production, and monthly production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt are shown [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory trends of caustic soda are provided [35][38]. 3.5.2 Supply Trends - The report shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, production, maintenance volume, and overall capacity utilization rate and production trends of PVC [40][41]. 3.5.3 Demand Trends - It presents the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - to - production ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate of various PVC products, as well as the operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. It also shows the profit, production, cost, and apparent consumption of paste resin, and relevant data on real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [43][47][55]. 3.5.4 Inventory - The report shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [60]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - It presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and the FOB spread of ethylene method and the import spread of vinyl chloride [62]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [65].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-6） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近期市场观望情绪升温，影响近两日线上竞拍流拍现象增加，且部分煤种成交价格小幅下 跌，竞拍情绪稍有走弱，考虑煤矿多有预售订单待执行，焦企短期仍有一定补库需求，煤企挺价意愿较 强，产地煤矿报价多暂稳为主；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1040，基差-142；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：焦企经过连续五轮提涨，利润有所修复，当前开工高稳，加之终端高铁水支撑当前需求， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC has rebounded, with domestic demand recovery being sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4925 - 5037. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [6][9][14]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Overall bearish. In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, with no change from the previous week. The production of calcium carbide enterprises decreased by 4.06% month - on - month, while that of ethylene enterprises increased by 12.82% month - on - month. The downstream overall开工率 was 42.05%, a slight increase but still below the historical average. The cost of calcium carbide and ethylene has increased, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6][8]. - **Basis**: On August 4, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 1 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, a neutral situation [11]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory decreased by 3.28% month - on - month, with calcium carbide factory inventory decreasing by 3.12% and ethylene factory inventory decreasing by 3.85%. However, social inventory increased by 4.91% month - on - month, and the inventory days of production enterprises decreased by 3.33%. Overall, it is bearish [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20, a neutral situation [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions, a bearish situation [11]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Various indicators such as enterprise prices, monthly spreads, downstream开工率, profit, and cost showed different degrees of changes. For example, the prices of some enterprises decreased, and the profit of calcium carbide and ethylene methods showed different degrees of improvement or decline [16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trend of PVC from 2022 to 2025, along with the market price in East China and the closing price of the main contract [18][19]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures in July - August 2025, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the net position changes of the top 5 and 20 seats [21][22]. - **Spread Analysis**: Presents the spread trends of the main contracts from 2024 to 2025, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [24][25]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Analyzes the price, cost, profit,开工率, and inventory of raw materials such as blue charcoal, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda from multiple years [27][30][32][34]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: Shows the capacity utilization rate, production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods from 2018 - 2025, as well as the daily and weekly production of PVC [39][41]. - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream开工率 of PVC from multiple years, and also examines the relationship between PVC demand and real estate and social financing data [43][45][47][55][58]. - **Inventory**: Presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide and ethylene factory inventories, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises from 2019 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads from multiple years [61][62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, demand, and inventory [64][65].

焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-5） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：前期因环保、顶库等原因减停产的煤矿陆续复产，但复产速度偏慢。下游目前仍在补库周 期，煤矿普遍出货顺畅，部分紧张煤种价格仍有上涨预期，不过经过煤价前期的大幅上涨，下游对部分 高价煤种开始谨慎采购，线上竞拍资源涨跌互现，部分煤种价格出现回落；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1070，基差-71；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存803.8万吨，港口库存282.1万吨，独立焦企库存844.1万吨，总样本库存1930万吨， 较上周减少3万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：焦炭第五轮提涨落地，焦企利润进一步修复，开工暂稳，虽 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为34.7555%，环比增加3.835个百分 点，全国样本企业出货27.24万吨，环比增加1.26%,样本企业产量为58万吨，环比增加 12.40%,样本企业装置检修量预估为60.4万吨，环比减少5.91%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升 供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为33.1%，环比增加0.15个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为16 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on PVC is influenced by multiple factors, with supply pressure increasing and demand potentially remaining weak. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4960 - 5070 [9]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the recovery of domestic demand is sluggish [14]. - The bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consumption inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals are bearish. In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a 0.67% month - on - month increase. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, with no change from the previous week. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 324,580 tons, a 4.06% decrease, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 127,700 tons, a 12.82% increase. The downstream overall开工率 was 42.05%, slightly increased, but still below the historical average. The cost of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based production increased, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6]. - **Basis**: On August 1, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [11]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 345,340 tons, a 3.28% decrease. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 269,190 tons, a 3.12% decrease, and ethylene - based factory inventory was 76,150 tons, a 3.85% decrease. Social inventory was 448,000 tons, a 4.91% increase. The inventory - to - production days of production enterprises was 5.8 days, a 3.33% decrease, presenting a bearish situation [11]. - **Market Trend**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below MA20, showing a neutral situation [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, presenting a bearish situation [11]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, and downstream开工率 of different types of PVC enterprises [17]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC futures, which helps to understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices [19]. - **Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical spread trends of different main contracts of PVC futures, providing information for spread trading analysis [25]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide - Based Raw Materials**: - **Lanthanum Carbon**: It includes the price, cost - profit,开工率, and inventory trends of lanthanum carbon [29]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, and maintenance loss of calcium carbide [32]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It presents the price, production, and inventory trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt [34]. - **Caustic Soda**: It includes the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, and inventory of caustic soda [36]. - **Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC [40]. - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of different downstream products of PVC. It also shows the real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale, M2 increment, local government special bond issuance, and infrastructure investment data [44]. - **Inventory**: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [60]. - **Ethylene - Based**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene - based PVC, and import spread of vinyl chloride [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [66].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-4） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 每日观点 焦炭： 1、基本面：焦企利润水平偏低，生产积极性一般，部分亏损焦企仍保持前期减产状态。另外，部分焦 企厂内原料煤库存偏低，焦企开工暂时难有改善，且随着下游积极拿货，焦企厂内库存水平偏低，焦炭 供应仍显紧张；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1530，基差-55；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存639万吨，港口库存199.1万吨，独立焦企库存55.6万吨，总样本库存839.7万吨，较 上周减少3.8万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦炭主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：产地焦企生产仍有受限，区域内焦 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level, with a neutral outlook [6]. - The basis is positive, with the spot price at 14,650 and a basis of 90, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Exchange inventories are decreasing, while Qingdao area inventories are increasing, presenting a neutral situation [6]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, suggesting a bearish trend [6]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level, with a neutral outlook [6]. - The basis is positive, with the spot price at 14,650 and a basis of 90, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Exchange inventories are decreasing, while Qingdao area inventories are increasing, presenting a neutral situation [6]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, suggesting a bearish trend [6]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [6][8]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on July 31st, and the US dollar - quoted price in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also mentioned [10]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories are decreasing, while Qingdao area inventories are increasing [6][16][19]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream consumption is high, with seasonal increases in automobile production and sales and a record - high tire production in the same period, but tire industry exports are declining [8][25][31]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Increasing supply and non - seasonal destocking in the Qingdao area [8].