1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show high production at alkali plants, an expected ample supply, a continued downward trend in the daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass, and the inventory at soda ash plants is at a historically high level. The basis indicates that the futures are at a premium to the spot. Although the cost side provides some support, the weak fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures increased from 1190 yuan/ton to 1271 yuan/ton, a rise of 6.81%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei increased from 1135 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.37%. The main basis changed from - 55 yuan/ton to - 41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.45% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei is 1230 yuan/ton, up 8.37% from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 137.40 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is - 88.50 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [15]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 81.65%. The weekly output of soda ash is 71.19 tons, including 38.56 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level [18][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant new capacity additions in the soda ash industry. In 2023, the new capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [23]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 108.54% [26]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.45 tons, and the operating rate is 73.89% [29]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in national factories is 140.83 tons, a decrease of 2.10% from the previous week, and it is at a historically high level in the same period [35]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, apparent supply, total demand, and the supply - demand gap, as well as their growth rates [36]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there were still large production plans in 2025. The production in the industry is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为29.3624%，环比减少3.78个百分点，全国样本企业出货26.305万吨，环比减少3.22%,样本企业 产量为49万吨，环比减少11.39%,样本企业装置检修量预估为96.1万吨，环比增加1.05%,本周炼厂有所减产，降 低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.4%，环比减少0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工率为6.6%， 环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为7.4823%，环比增加0.38个百分点，高于历史平均水平；道路 改性沥青开工率为20%，环比持平，高于历史平均水平；防水卷材开工率为25%，环比持平。高于历史平均水平； 总体来看，当前需求低于历史平均水平。 1、基本面: 偏多。 成本端来看，日度加工沥青利润为188.99元/吨，环比持平，周度山东地炼延迟焦化利润为627.0286元/吨，环 比减少4.39%，沥青加工利润持平，沥青与延迟焦化利润差减 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年1月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 | 据隆众统计 2025年12月PVC产量为213 7356万吨 环比增加2 79%； ， ， . ， . 样本企业产能利用率为78 63% 环比增加0 02个百分点 电石法企业产量33 815万吨 ； . ， . . | 本周 ， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 环比减少0 | 17% 乙烯法企业产量14 571万吨 环比增加6 51%； 本周供给压力有所增加 . , . ， . 下周预计检修有所减少 预计排产少量增加 ， 。 | ； | | | | 需求端来看 | 下游整体开工率为4 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **For Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal has improved after some mines resumed production after the New Year's Day. However, due to the influence of coke price cuts, coking coal prices have been falling, and new orders have declined. With the squeeze on coking profits, the signal of coking coal price cuts is obvious, and downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is limited. In the short term, due to winter environmental protection requirements, downstream coking and steel enterprises have increased maintenance and production cuts, and the demand for raw coal has declined. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price may run weakly [2]. - **For Coke**: The current profits of coke enterprises are continuously compressed, and some coke enterprises in some areas have fallen into losses, with a small number of coke enterprises limiting production. Although the daily consumption of coke by steel mills has increased slightly, the supply of coke is still relatively loose, and steel mills still have a strong willingness to reduce prices. With the raw material price still falling slightly, it is expected that coke will run weakly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Daily Views - Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: After the New Year's Day, the supply has improved, but prices have fallen due to coke price cuts, and new orders have decreased. Downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is limited [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1100, and the basis is 19.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons from last week, including 801 tons in steel mills, 295 tons in ports, and 861 tons in independent coke enterprises [2]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position increases [3]. - **Expectation**: Due to winter environmental protection requirements, downstream demand has declined, and it is expected that the short - term price will run weakly [2]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth; bearish factors include slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. **Daily Views - Coke** - **Fundamentals**: The profits of coke enterprises are continuously compressed, some are in losses, and a small number are limiting production. The daily consumption of coke by steel mills has increased slightly, and the shipment of coke enterprises has improved [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1590, and the basis is - 58.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week, including 626 tons in steel mills, 187 tons in ports, and 45 tons in independent coke enterprises [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net long, and the long position decreases [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply of coke is relatively loose, steel mills have a strong willingness to reduce prices, and it is expected that coke will run weakly in the short term [6]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include rising hot metal production and rising blast furnace operating rate; bearish factors include squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial overdraft of replenishment demand [8]. **Price** The prices of metallurgical coke in various ports on January 5th (17:30) are provided, with most prices showing a decline of 10 [10]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27]. **Other Data** - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises in the country is 74.48% [40]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants in the country is 25 yuan [44].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年1月06日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24150，基差+330；偏多。 3、库存：1月5日LME锌库存较上日减少475吨至105850吨，1月5日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少1045吨至41374吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均线之 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 需求支撑不足，焦煤低位整理 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 现货承压，焦炭弱势震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 1 月 2 日当周，全国 523 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年1月5日 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价继续大幅上涨，主力多头并没有获利了结，而是在高位做高抛低吸。近期部分产 能减产，供应压力减轻。产业链上，镍矿价格稳定，出船量受天气影响，矿山看涨意愿强。镍铁价格 持续反弹，成本线上升。不锈钢库存回落，短期受镍价影响。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。 新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货137550，基差4700，偏多 3、库存：LME库存255282（1月2日），120，上交所仓单37666，-132，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2602：短线强势，空头观望，回到前期箱 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素提振，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-31 品种晨会纪要 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期国内甲醇期货呈现震荡企稳，小幅反弹的走势。究其原因主要集中在海外供应的突 发收缩和库存结构的边际改善上。首先，海外供应"硬收缩"带来支撑。作为主要进口来源地的伊 朗，目前正面临严重的供应干扰。据了 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - PX: ★★☆ (Two stars, representing a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market is in a complex situation with different products showing various trends due to factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and cost [2][3][5] - Some products are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others have expectations of improvement in the medium - to - long - term but face short - term pressures [5][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated within the day. Downstream polypropylene cost pressure eased slightly, but demand recovery was limited as some polypropylene plants were still shut down [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures had narrow - range movements. For polyethylene, imports were increasing, and downstream demand was weak. For polypropylene, production was expected to increase slightly, and short - term demand was weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fluctuated. Port inventory was high, but supply - demand pressure might ease in the future. Consider long - term positive spreads on dips [3] - Styrene futures had a narrow - range movement. Cost had no obvious positive impact, and there were expectations of supply - demand increase and inventory accumulation [3] Polyester - PX prices were driven up by strong expectations but deviated from downstream demand. PTA was mainly affected by PX, with expectations of low - load inventory reduction and margin repair [5] - Ethylene glycol production decreased, and inventory increased. It was in a low - level fluctuation, with potential improvement in the second quarter but long - term pressure [5] - Short fiber inventory was low, and it was in the off - season. Its price followed raw materials, and long - term supply - demand was relatively good. Bottle chip demand weakened, and it was cost - driven with long - term overcapacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose sharply. Import volume was expected to decrease, and port inventory might enter a de - stocking cycle in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spreads [6] - Urea prices were strongly volatile. Supply was tightening, but it might increase this week, and short - term prices might decline [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC had a slightly upward trend. Supply might increase, demand was low, and inventory pressure was high. It was expected to move within a range [7] - Caustic soda prices were strong. Supply pressure was high, downstream demand growth was limited, and profit compression was expected [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices were strong. Production was increasing, inventory was decreasing, but there was long - term supply - demand surplus. Consider the strategy of long glass and short soda ash 05 [8] - Glass prices were strong. Capacity was being reduced, inventory pressure was high, and long - term capacity reduction was expected to reach a new balance [8]

宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 30 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆期价低位震荡，一方面面临南美新季大豆丰产预期的压制，；另一方面，美豆出口销 售相对低迷，年度迄今出口总量仍处于多年低位。国内市场多空因素交织。供应端整体宽松，港口大 豆及豆粕库存处于高位，但进口成本高企为价格提供了底部支撑，且市场对一季度供应可能存在缺口 的预期依然存在。合约间呈现明显的近强远弱结构，近月合约受成本支撑及现货偏紧预期影响相对坚 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘 ...