Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will maintain a "moderately loose" monetary policy in the second half of the year, focusing on risk balance in bond investments by small and medium-sized banks [2] - The central bank aims to support technological innovation and boost consumption through structural monetary policy tools [2] - The issuance of 1.23 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds is part of efforts to stabilize investment and promote consumption [7] Group 2 - The financial data for the first half of 2025 shows a significant increase in M2 growth rate to 8.3%, indicating a solid support for the real economy [9] - The number of countries and regions with trade exceeding 50 billion yuan has increased to 61, reflecting a growth in China's trade partnerships [8] - The Beijing office market is experiencing a slight decrease in vacancy rates, with technology companies accounting for 30% of demand [11] Group 3 - NIO's stock surged over 10% following the launch of its new SUV model, the L90, which has received optimistic market expectations [20] - The global luxury market saw a record-breaking auction for a Hermès Birkin bag, selling for 7 million euros, highlighting the high demand for luxury goods [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, with predictions from major financial institutions indicating a potential rise to 7.0 in the next 12 months and further to 6.7 by the end of 2026 [1][7]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Yuan Appreciation - The People's Bank of China emphasizes that it does not seek to gain international competitive advantage through currency depreciation, indicating a commitment to market-driven exchange rates [2][3]. - Since April, the yuan has appreciated approximately 1.4% against the dollar, surpassing the 7.15 mark, the highest since November of the previous year [4][17]. - Market sentiment has shifted positively, with institutions like Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley raising their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy and becoming bullish on the yuan [6][7]. Group 2: Economic and Market Dynamics - The exchange rate is fundamentally determined by supply and demand; a stronger outlook for the yuan leads to increased demand for it [9][10]. - The interest rate differential between China and the US plays a significant role; currently, Chinese banks offer about 0.95% for one-year deposits, while US banks offer over 3%, making holding dollars more attractive [11][12]. - A narrowing interest rate gap between China and the US could enhance the attractiveness of the yuan, leading to its appreciation [13][20]. Group 3: Impact of Global Events - The US-China trade tensions and the recent decline in the US dollar index, which has dropped nearly 11 points over six months, have contributed to the weakening of the dollar [18][20]. - Expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also influenced the market, making the dollar less appealing [20][48]. - The ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China, despite challenges, have provided a supportive backdrop for the yuan's strength [24][26]. Group 4: Challenges for Export Enterprises - The appreciation of the yuan poses challenges for export enterprises, as it reduces the amount of yuan received from dollar-denominated sales, potentially impacting profit margins significantly [30][31]. - Exporters may struggle to adjust prices quickly due to long contract cycles, leading to potential losses if the yuan appreciates rapidly [32][34]. - The rising yuan could diminish the price competitiveness of Chinese products in international markets, increasing export pressures [34][36]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook and Strategic Adjustments - Analysts suggest that the yuan's appreciation may have a lagging effect on exports, providing time for companies to adapt [39]. - The shift towards higher-value exports, particularly in technology and capital-intensive goods, may mitigate some negative impacts of currency appreciation [40][41]. - Companies are encouraged to explore new markets and enhance product competitiveness to navigate the challenges posed by currency fluctuations [50][56].

Core Insights - The article highlights the disparity between China's GDP growth and the perception of its economic standing compared to the US and Vietnam, emphasizing that the narrative of a widening gap is misleading [1][3]. Economic Growth Projections - China's GDP is projected to exceed 140 trillion yuan by 2025, representing an increase of over 10 trillion yuan from 2023, equivalent to recreating the economic scale of Shandong Province [3]. - The GDP gap between China and the US is expected to widen, with specific dollar figures indicating an increase in disparity over the year [3]. Currency and Inflation Impact - Exchange rate fluctuations significantly affect the dollar value of China's GDP, with a depreciation of the yuan leading to a reduction of approximately 160 billion USD in GDP value when converted to dollars [3]. - The difference in inflation rates distorts the perception of economic growth, with China's low inflation resulting in a lower nominal GDP growth compared to the US, which experiences higher inflation rates [5]. Vietnam's Economic Performance - Vietnam's GDP growth rate reached impressive figures in 2023, but its overall GDP remains significantly smaller than China's, with projections indicating that Vietnam's annual GDP is only a fraction of China's [6]. - Vietnam's economy is heavily reliant on the US market, making it vulnerable to changes in US policy, contrasting with China's more diversified economic structure [6]. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Perspective - The article argues that GDP figures based on purchasing power parity (PPP) provide a more accurate reflection of economic strength, with China surpassing the US in PPP terms since a certain year and maintaining a growing lead [7][9]. - In 2023, China's PPP GDP reached a significant figure, further illustrating its economic capabilities compared to the US [9]. Structural Economic Strength - China's manufacturing sector contributes a substantial percentage to global output, with a diverse range of industries, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth rather than short-term gains [11]. - The country is transitioning from manufacturing to innovation, with significant investments in research and development, showcasing its technological advancement [11]. Employment and Social Welfare - China has been creating millions of new jobs annually, with healthcare coverage expanding, reflecting genuine improvements in living standards rather than superficial economic growth [11]. Comparison with the US - The US experienced a decline in GDP in the first quarter, relying on inflation for growth, which raises concerns about the sustainability of its economic model [13]. - The article concludes that while short-term perceptions may suggest a widening gap, China's long-term economic resilience and competitiveness are expected to strengthen [13].

Group 1: TSMC's Investment and Pricing Strategy - TSMC plans to invest $165 billion in capacity expansion in the U.S., which may increase its chances of tariff exemptions [1] - TSMC's management indicated that potential semiconductor tariffs could suppress electronic product demand and reduce company revenue [1] - Due to inflation and potential tariff costs, TSMC expects profit margins from overseas factories to erode by 3-4 percentage points in the later years of the next five years [1] Group 2: Wafer Pricing and Currency Impact - TSMC is expected to increase wafer prices by 3%-5% globally due to strong demand for advanced processes and structural currency trends [2] - U.S. customers are reportedly locking in higher quotes for 4nm capacity at TSMC's U.S. factories, with plans to raise wafer prices by at least 10% [2] Group 3: 2nm Capacity Expansion - TSMC plans to start mass production of 2nm technology in the second half of 2025, with significant demand anticipated [5] - The projected capacity for 2nm will be 10k wafers per month (kwpm) in 2024, increasing to 40-50 kwpm in 2025, and reaching 90 kwpm by the end of 2026 [5] - Major clients for 2nm technology will include Apple, AMD, and Intel, with Apple expected to adopt the technology in Q4 2025 [5][6] Group 4: AI and Cryptocurrency Demand - By the end of 2026, AI ASICs will begin utilizing 2nm capacity, with increased usage expected in 2027 [6] - The contribution of cloud AI semiconductor business to TSMC's revenue is projected to rise from 13% in 2024 to 25% in 2025, and further to 34% by 2027 [12] Group 5: B30 GPU and Market Demand - TSMC's Blackwell chip production is expected to align with the demand from NVL72 server rack shipments, with a projected shipment of 30,000 racks in 2025 [10] - The design of the Chinese version of the B30 GPU is anticipated to be similar to the RTX PRO 6000, with demand continuing to grow [12] - If the B30 can be sold in China, it could account for 20% of TSMC's revenue growth in 2026 [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's expectation of the capital market is marginally cautious, as indicated by the upward movement of certificate of deposit (CD) yields and interest rate swaps (IRS) [2]. - The repo trading volume increased, while the lending scale of large - scale banks decreased, and the lending scale of money market funds increased [3]. - The bill rate decreased, indicating a decrease in credit demand and an increase in bill - padding demand, with general credit demand expected in July. The USD/CNY exchange rate increased, and the Sino - US interest rate spread widened [4]. - The capital market is expected to remain balanced this week, but capital interest rate fluctuations may increase [5]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Certificate of Deposit and Interest Rate Swap - Last week, the total maturity of CDs was 510.52 billion yuan, and the issuance was 427.13 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of - 83.39 billion yuan. As of the last trading day of last week, the 1 - year AAA CD maturity yield was 1.63%, up from the previous week. This week, the single - week maturity scale of CDs is about 802.81 billion yuan, with greater maturity pressure than the previous week [2]. - In terms of interest rate swaps, the average value of the 1 - year FR007 interest rate swap last week was 1.53%, up from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Repo Market - Last week, the pledged repo trading volume was between 7.7 trillion and 8.6 trillion yuan. The average trading volume of R001 repos was 7,355.9 billion yuan, an increase of 545 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the outstanding repo balance was 11.8 trillion yuan, down from the previous week [3]. - By institution, the lending scale of large - scale banks decreased, and the lending scale of money market funds increased. The borrowing scales of securities firms, funds, and wealth management products decreased. As of Friday, the repo balances of large - scale banks and money market funds were 4.89 trillion yuan and 2.12 trillion yuan, down 694.7 billion yuan and up 48.8 billion yuan from the previous week respectively. The positive repo balances of securities firms, funds, and wealth management products were 1.79 trillion yuan, 2.29 trillion yuan, and 704 billion yuan, down 78.5 billion yuan, 150.3 billion yuan, and 140.5 billion yuan from the previous week respectively [3]. 3.3 Bill and Exchange Rate - Last Friday, the 6M national stock bill transfer quotation was 0.89%, down from the last trading day of the previous week. The decrease in the bill rate indicates a decrease in credit demand and an increase in bill - padding demand, with general credit demand expected in July [4]. - Last Friday, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.17, slightly up from the previous week, and the Sino - US interest rate spread widened. The strong US non - farm payrolls data in June led to a decline in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the increase in short - term supply pressure after the debt ceiling increase pushed up US Treasury yields [4]. 3.4 This Week's Focus - This week, 525.7 billion yuan of open - market funds will mature, including 425.7 billion yuan of reverse repos and 100 billion yuan of MLFs [5]. - China's June trade data will be released on Monday, and the performance of imports and exports will be monitored. China's June and Q2 economic data will be released on Tuesday, and the domestic fundamental performance will be monitored. The US June CPI and PPI data will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, and the US inflation performance will be monitored. June's financial data may be released this week, and the performance of credit and social financing will be monitored. Tuesday is the tax payment deadline, and the central bank's hedging efforts and capital market disturbances will be monitored [5].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 14, 2025 [1] - Report Team: Research Center's Macro Team Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 11, 2025, yields varied widely: US (4.411%), UK (4.621%), etc [2]. - Latest changes ranged from 0.002% (Greece) to 0.060% (US). - One - week changes were between 0.044% (Switzerland) and 0.134% (France). - One - month changes spanned from 0.010% (US) to 0.190% (Germany). - One - year changes varied from - 0.412% (Italy) to 0.450% (UK). 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - As of July 11, 2025, yields were as follows: US (3.860%), UK (3.851%), etc [2]. - Latest changes were from - 0.040% (US) to 0.025% (Australia). - One - week changes ranged from - 0.019% (South Korea) to 0.128% (Australia). - One - month changes were between - 0.083% (UK) and 0.140% (Australia). - One - year changes varied from - 1.352% (Italy) to 0.421% (Japan). Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On July 11, 2025, exchange rates were: Brazil (5.560), South Africa (17.942), etc [2]. - Latest changes were from 0.10% (Malaysian ringgit) to 1.10% (South African rand). - One - week changes ranged from 0.10% (Malaysian ringgit) to 2.56% (Brazilian real). - One - month changes were between - 0.02% (South African rand) and 2.56% (Brazilian real). - One - year changes varied from - 11.58% (Thai baht) to 0.12% (Brazilian real). Stock Indices of Major Economies - On July 11, 2025, indices included: S&P 500 (6259.750), Dow Jones (44371.510), etc [2]. - Latest changes were from - 0.94% (Spanish index) to 0.60% (Indian index). - One - week changes ranged from - 2.39% (Mexican index) to 3.98% (South Korean index). - One - month changes were between - 1.66% (Indian index) and 6.07% (Nasdaq). - One - year changes varied from - 4.91% (Malaysian index) to 32.01% (German DAX). Credit Bond Indices - Latest changes in credit bond indices were from - 0.49% (US investment - grade) to - 0.03% (Eurozone high - yield) [2][3] - One - week changes ranged from - 0.62% (US investment - grade) to 0.26% (Eurozone high - yield) - One - month changes were between 0.32% (Eurozone investment - grade) and 1.62% (emerging economies high - yield) - One - year changes varied from 5.51% (US investment - grade) to 14.46% (emerging economies high - yield) Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices on July 11, 2025: A - share (3510.18), CSI 300 (4014.81), etc [4] - Percentage changes were from - 0.01% (SSE 50) to 0.80% (ChiNext) Valuation - PE (TTM) values: CSI 300 (13.31), SSE 50 (11.39), etc -环比变化 were from - 0.09% (S&P 500) to 0.21% (CSI 500) Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate values: S&P 500 (- 0.65), German DAX (2.10) -环比变化 were from - 0.04% (S&P 500) to 0.02% (German DAX) Fund Flows - Latest values: A - shares (75.13), Main Board (- 50.13), etc - 5 - day average values were from - 178.82 (A - shares) to 48.76 (CSI 300) Trading Volume - Latest trading volumes: Shanghai and Shenzhen markets (17121.19), CSI 300 (4437.81), etc -环比变化 were from 184.64 (Small - and Medium - sized Board) to 959.44 (CSI 300) Main Contract Basis - Basis values: IF (- 21.41), IH (- 5.17), IC (- 4.08) - Basis percentages were from - 0.53% (IF) to - 0.07% (IC) Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices on July 11, 2025: T00 (108.830), TF00 (105.995), etc [5] - Percentage changes were from - 0.22% (T01) to - 0.15% (TF01) - Funding rates: R001 (1.4038%), R007 (1.5086%), SHIBOR - 3M (1.5570%) - Daily changes in basis points were from - 12.00 (R001) to 0.00 (SHIBOR - 3M)

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **stablecoin** industry, focusing on its impact on currency exchange rates and financial markets [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Stablecoin Growth**: Stablecoin trading volume has surged, with a **70% year-on-year increase** in the first half of 2025. USDT and USDC dominate the market, raising concerns among central banks regarding potential risks of bank runs [1][7]. - **Cost Efficiency**: Stablecoins significantly reduce cross-border payment costs, averaging **0.5% to 3%**, compared to traditional bank remittance fees of **7% to 8%**. This cost advantage makes stablecoins attractive to traders [1][8]. - **Regulatory Developments**: Recent legislative actions in the U.S. and Hong Kong aim to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, highlighting their growing importance in the financial landscape [2][11]. - **Impact on Weak Currencies**: The rapid growth of dollar-pegged stablecoins may lead to depreciation of weaker currencies and capital outflows, exacerbating economic challenges in those countries [1][10]. - **Market Risks**: The reliance on stablecoins introduces liquidity and market risks, particularly if large-scale redemptions occur, potentially leading to volatility in traditional asset markets [6][9]. Additional Important Content - **Types of Stablecoins**: Stablecoins can be categorized into three types: off-chain asset-backed, on-chain asset-backed, and algorithmic stablecoins, each with different mechanisms and regulatory implications [3]. - **Financial Risks**: Despite their perceived stability, stablecoins carry risks such as potential bank runs, which could impact traditional financial markets, particularly U.S. Treasury securities [9]. - **Global Trends**: The global digital currency landscape is evolving, with a focus on integrating stablecoins into financial regulatory frameworks and advancing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) for cross-border payments [11][12]. - **China's Digital Currency Initiatives**: China is advancing its state-led digital yuan, with significant pilot programs underway, while the regulatory framework for a potential renminbi stablecoin remains unclear [12][13]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the stablecoin industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting its implications for financial markets and regulatory environments.

Core Point - The Malaysian Ringgit has depreciated by 0.3% against the US dollar, reaching a rate of 4.2570, marking the lowest level since June 24 [1] Group 1 - The depreciation of the Malaysian Ringgit indicates potential economic challenges for Malaysia [1]

Group 1: Company Fundamentals - The company's fundamentals are crucial, with financial statements reflecting operational performance, such as revenue indicating business results and net profit showcasing profitability [1] - Analyzing the balance sheet helps assess the asset and liability structure, evaluating the company's debt repayment ability [1] - The quality of the management team is vital, as effective leaders with market insight and decision-making skills can drive long-term strategic planning and resource allocation [1] - A sound governance structure ensures robust internal controls and risk management, protecting shareholder interests and maintaining operational stability [1] Group 2: Industry Development Trends - Industry development trends significantly impact stock investment, with emerging sectors like renewable energy and artificial intelligence attracting substantial capital [2] - Mature or declining industries face challenges such as market saturation and intense competition, limiting growth potential [2] - Understanding the competitive landscape, including market share and competitive advantages, is essential for assessing a company's position and growth prospects within its industry [2] Group 3: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is a critical external factor affecting stock investment, with economic cycles directly influencing industry and company performance [3] - During economic expansion, strong consumer demand typically leads to increased corporate profits and rising stock markets, while economic downturns result in lower consumer spending and poor stock performance [3] - Monetary and fiscal policies play significant roles, with loose monetary policy enhancing market liquidity and fiscal measures stimulating economic growth, thereby impacting stock prices [3] - Factors like exchange rates and inflation also indirectly affect stock investments, influencing profits for export-oriented companies and altering asset allocation preferences [3] Group 4: Risk Control - Risk control is a continuous focus in stock investment, as market risks are inherent and can lead to significant price volatility [4] - Companies face various risks, including operational risks that can affect profitability and market reputation [4] - Diversification is a strategy to mitigate risk, encouraging investors to build a varied portfolio across different industries and company sizes to balance potential losses [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - The reports present the latest data on various futures, including price differences, spreads, ratios, and related economic indicators, providing investors with information for market analysis and decision - making [1][2][4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Spread - **Price Differences**: The latest values of IF, IH, IC, and IM price differences range from - 23.24 to - 200.00, with changes from - 0.50 to 11.42 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 5.30% to 32.70% [1] - **Inter - period Spreads**: For IF, IH, IC, and IM inter - period spreads, the latest values range from - 8.80 to - 329.80, with changes from - 5.00 to 3.20 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 8.60% to 61.30% [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: The cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., have the latest values from 1.4485 to 2.1619, with changes from - 0.0167 to - 0.0016 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 38.60% to 71.30% [1] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Basis**: The latest basis values of TS, TF, T, and TL range from 0.0000 to 1.8885, with changes from - 0.0260 to 0.1426 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 7.60% to 65.10% [2] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL have the latest values from - 0.2340 to 0.2800, with changes from - 0.0400 to 0.0200 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 8.00% to 19.80% [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: The cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., have the latest values from - 18.6920 to - 0.0010, and historical percentiles from 1.30% to 2.10% [2] 3. Precious Metals Spot and Futures - **Spot Prices**: COMEX silver rose 0.68% to 37.04 dollars per ounce, London gold rose 0.33% to 3336.94 dollars per ounce, etc. [5] - **Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold fell 0.97% to 3336.00 dollars per ounce, AU2508 fell 0.54% to 777.06 yuan per gram, etc. [6] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was - 5.49, with a historical percentile of 0.80%, and silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 34, with a historical percentile of 27.30% [4] - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver ratio was 90.06, down 1.64% [4] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.2% to 4.35%, and the US dollar index fell 0.13% to 96.99 [4] - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased 16.25% to 21456 kilograms, and COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.71% to 36785583 ounces [4] 4. Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe shipping quotes vary, with Maersk down 5.13% to 2978 dollars per FEU and CMA CGM up 11.40% to 4085 dollars per FEU [7] - **Container Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route) rose 9.61% to 2123.24, and SCFIS (US West route) fell 22.28% to 1619.19 [7] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2508 (main contract) fell 2.48% to 1849.9, and the basis (main contract) rose 33.21% to 822.2 [7] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged at 3266.65 million TEU, and Shanghai's port punctuality rate rose 46.45% to 42.50 [7] 5. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information - **Overseas Data**: Eurozone's comprehensive PMI rose 0.80% to 50.60, and the US manufacturing PMI index rose 1.03% to 49.00 [7][9] - **Domestic Data**: China's June foreign exchange reserves, iron ore shipments, and other data are to be released, and some data such as SMM electrolytic copper social inventory are expected to be updated [9]