Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the continuous growth in both revenue and expenditure in the region's fiscal budget for the first five months of the year, with public budget revenue reaching 755.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and public budget expenditure totaling 2563.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] - Tax revenue has shown a positive trend, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4% for the first five months, improving significantly from a mere 0.04% growth in the first four months [1] - Expenditure from municipal and county finances has also increased, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, and 13 out of 14 municipalities reporting positive growth in expenditure [1] Group 2 - In the area of public welfare, spending reached a historical high of 2014.88 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, maintaining a proportion of around 80% of total public budget expenditure [2] - Significant growth was observed in various sectors, including commercial services (38.2%), energy conservation and environmental protection (31.8%), transportation (25.8%), technology (15.1%), agriculture (10.3%), and education (8.9%) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, announced that tax revenues for the current reporting season have exceeded targets, indicating a stronger-than-expected fiscal performance [1] Group 1 - The reported tax revenues are higher than anticipated, suggesting improved economic conditions [1] - This increase in tax revenue may have implications for government spending and budget planning [1] - The performance of tax revenues could influence future fiscal policies and economic forecasts [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance reported an improvement in fiscal revenue for April 2025, with total public budget revenue reaching 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, but the decline rate narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 1.4 percentage points from the first quarter. Notably, tax revenue grew by 1.9% in April, marking a positive monthly growth [1] - The overall public budget revenue in April showed a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, up from 0.3% in March, indicating a marginal improvement in the revenue structure [1] Group 2 - Among the four major tax categories, corporate income tax, value-added tax, and consumption tax saw significant declines in year-on-year growth rates in April, with growth rates of 4.0%, 0.9%, and 0.5% respectively, compared to previous values of 16.0%, 4.9%, and 9.6% [2] - The personal income tax experienced a notable increase of 67.5 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 9.0%, attributed to a low base from the previous year [2] Group 3 - In terms of fiscal expenditure, the general public budget expenditure grew by 5.8% year-on-year in April, surpassing the revenue growth rate, indicating a continued focus on stable growth in fiscal spending [4] - By the end of April, the general public budget expenditure completed 31.5% of the annual budget, higher than the average of 30.7% over the past five years [4] - Infrastructure-related expenditures showed a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, with significant increases in urban and rural community affairs and transportation spending, while expenditures in agriculture, forestry, water affairs, and energy conservation showed a slowdown [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that tax revenue in the UK has increased compared to April of last year, partly due to the rise in national insurance contributions [1] - However, this increase in tax revenue has been offset by rising expenditures, attributed to the increased costs of public services and the growth in various welfare and state pension payments [1]

Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for the first four months of the year was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Public budget expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking the fastest expenditure progress for the same period since 2020 [1] - In April, public budget revenue grew by 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue growth accelerating by 4.1 percentage points to 1.9% [1][2] - Non-tax revenue for the first four months was 15,060 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but the growth rate slowed to 1.7% in April [3] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for April turned positive with a growth rate of 1.9%, while the total tax revenue for January to April was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first quarter [2] - Major tax categories showed a decline in growth rates, with VAT, consumption tax, and corporate income tax experiencing significant drops [2] - Personal income tax saw a substantial rebound due to a low base from the previous year, rising from -58.5% to 9.0% [2] Expenditure Analysis - Public budget expenditure in April grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in social security and employment spending (8.5%) and education spending (7.4%) [4] - Infrastructure spending showed a growth of 2.2%, with notable increases in urban community and transportation expenditures [4] - Overall, the acceleration in fiscal spending in April indicates a proactive approach to stabilize growth amid external challenges [4] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while key areas of expenditure are being supported, the ongoing decline in cumulative fiscal revenue indicates underlying economic issues, particularly insufficient effective demand [5] - The focus of fiscal policy in the second quarter is expected to be on accelerating the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing large-scale new measures [5]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月21日 2025 年 4 月财政数据快评 税收收入回正，广义支出提速 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 财政部公布 2025 年 1-4 月财政数据，全国一般公共预算收入 80616 亿，同比下降 0.4%。中央一般公共预 算收入 33928 亿，同比下降 3.8%；地方一般公共预算本级收入 46688 亿元，同比增长 2.2%。全国一般公 共预算支出 93581 亿，同比增长 4.6%。中央一般公共预算本级支出 12282 亿，同比增长 9%；地方一般公 共预算支出 81299 亿，同比增长 3.9% 评论： 税收增速由负转正。4 月一般公共预算收入当月同比 1.9%，前值 0.3%。税收收入当月同比 1.9%，前值-2.2%； 非税收入当月同比 1.7%，前值 5.9%，继 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure in April, with a notable improvement in tax revenue contributing to a more positive outlook for fiscal policy and spending [1][3][4]. Fiscal Revenue - In April, the general public budget revenue growth rate increased to 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue showing a significant improvement of 4.1 percentage points, marking the first positive growth this year [1][4]. - Cumulatively, tax revenue for the first four months remains at -2.1% year-on-year, with corporate income tax down by 3.1%, primarily due to low PPI [1][4][5]. - The performance of major tax categories in April was neutral, with corporate income tax contributing 1.21 percentage points to revenue growth, while personal income tax rose by 67.5% year-on-year, largely due to base effects [5][8]. Fiscal Expenditure - Fiscal expenditure showed a more positive trend, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in April and a cumulative growth of 4.6% for the first four months, exceeding the annual target growth rate of 4.4% [1][8]. - The expenditure progress for the first four months reached 31.5%, the second highest level in recent years, driven by spending on social security, education, and infrastructure projects [1][8][9]. - The issuance of ordinary government bonds was significantly advanced, contributing to the increase in fiscal spending [8][9]. Broader Fiscal Context - The government fund revenue also turned positive in April, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, driven by land sales and expected recovery in government fund income [2][15]. - The government fund expenditure rose sharply by 44.7% year-on-year in April, significantly outpacing revenue growth, indicating strong fiscal support for infrastructure and development projects [18][19]. - The overall fiscal revenue growth remains low, necessitating further measures to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand, with a notable fiscal deficit of 2.65 trillion yuan in the first four months [3][19].

Core Insights - The overall fiscal revenue and expenditure for the first four months of 2025 show a mixed trend, with total public budget revenue at 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while total expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% [1][4] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for the first four months was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 7.7% to 15,060 billion yuan [2] - Central government budget revenue was 33,928 billion yuan, a decline of 3.8%, while local government revenue rose by 2.2% to 46,688 billion yuan [2] - The completion rate of public fiscal revenue for the first four months was 36.7%, higher than the same period in 2024 and in line with the five-year average [2] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax and consumption tax both grew by 1.8%, while corporate income tax fell by 3.1% and personal income tax rose by 7.4% [2][3] - Real estate-related taxes showed mixed results, with deed tax down 15.7% and property tax up 11.2% [2][3] Expenditure Analysis - Total public budget expenditure for the first four months was 93,581 billion yuan, with central government expenditure at 12,282 billion yuan (up 9%) and local government expenditure at 81,299 billion yuan (up 3.9%) [4] - Key expenditure areas included social security and employment (up 8.5%), education (up 7.4%), and health (up 3.9%), while spending on urban and rural communities and agriculture showed a decline [4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal deficit target for the year is set at around 4%, allowing for flexibility in future policy adjustments [3] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds is expected to support infrastructure spending, with a significant amount of local special bonds pending issuance [5]

从财政收入看，1—4月全国一般公共预算收入80616亿元，同比下降0.4%，降幅比一季度收窄0.7个百分点。分 中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入下降3.8%，降幅比一季度收窄1.9个百分点，其中4月份增长1.6%，今年 以来首月实现正增长；地方一般公共预算收入增长2.2%，增幅与一季度持平。 从收入来源看，1—4月全国税收收入65556亿元，同比下降2.1%，降幅比一季度收窄1.4个百分点，其中4月税 收收入同比增长1.9%，今年以来月度增幅首次由负转正；全国非税收入15060亿元，同比增长7.7%，主要是多 渠道盘活资产等带动。 广发证券宏观分析师吴棋滢指出，2025年一般公共预算收入目标同比增速仅有0.1%，全年实现收入目标难度 不大。但在结构上，目前财政收入增幅仍依赖于非税收入带动。 财政部5月20日公布的2025年1—4月财政收支数据显示，在国际环境更趋复杂严峻，外部冲击影响加大的背 景下，1—4月全国公共财政收入累计降幅继续收窄，公共财政支出进度达到2020年以来同期最快；4月全国 税收收入同比增长1.9%，为今年以来月度增幅首次由负转正。 校对： 刘榕枝 百万用户都在看 在主要税收收入项目中，1 ...