Economic Growth Forecasts - The OECD has further downgraded the economic growth forecasts for the US and globally, attributing this to the pressure from President Trump's tariff policies [1] - The US growth outlook for this year has been revised down to only 1.6%, with a projection of 1.5% for 2026, compared to a previous expectation of 2.2% growth in 2025 [1] - The OECD highlighted factors such as the impact of tariff policies, increased economic policy uncertainty, slowed net immigration, and reduced federal government employment as reasons for the downgrade [1] Global Economic Outlook - The OECD's latest global growth forecast has also been lowered, indicating that the economic slowdown is primarily concentrated in the US, Canada, and Mexico, while other economies are expected to see smaller adjustments [1] - Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in both this year and 2026, down from a previous forecast of 3.1% for this year and 3% for 2026 [1] - The report warns that the global outlook is becoming increasingly severe, with potential negative impacts from increased trade barriers, tightening financial conditions, weakened business and consumer confidence, and heightened policy uncertainty [1] Inflation Predictions - The OECD has adjusted its inflation forecasts, stating that higher trade costs, particularly in countries with increased tariffs, will push up inflation, although this effect will be partially offset by weaker commodity prices [2] - There is a significant disparity in inflation predictions between the US and other major economies, with the OECD now forecasting a US inflation rate of 3.2% for 2025, up from a previous estimate of 2.8%, and potentially nearing 4% by the end of 2025 [2] - The OECD expects that the Federal Reserve's interest rates will remain unchanged this year, and if inflation stays close to target, some central banks may continue to lower rates [2]

智通财经6月3日电，经合组织将2025年加拿大经济增长预期从0.7%上调至1.0%；预计墨西哥2025年经 济将增长0.4%，此前预估会收缩。 ...

经合组织将2025年加拿大经济增长预期从0.7%上调至1.0%。预计墨西哥经济在2025年将增长0.4%，此 前预估会收缩。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Korea has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% to mitigate the downside risks to economic growth [1] - Due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, South Korea's exports are expected to continue slowing, significantly impacting economic growth [1] - A media survey predicts that South Korea's exports in May may decline by 4.9% year-on-year, following a 3.7% increase in April [1] Group 2 - A survey by Mono indicates that if the current U.S. tariff policy continues, South Korean exporters expect a nearly 5% decline in exports to the U.S. this year [2] - Among the top 1,000 exporting companies, the electrical and electronics sector anticipates the largest decline of 8.3%, followed by the automotive sector at 7.9% [2] - The Bank of Korea has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 0.8%, with a projected growth rate of 1.6% for 2026 [2] Group 3 - A Reuters survey indicates that the Bank of Korea is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate to 2.00% by the end of Q4 2025, down from a previous estimate of 2.25% [3] - The Bank of Korea forecasts the inflation rate in South Korea to reach 1.9% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, with inflation expected to stabilize around 2% [3] - Future inflation trends will depend on economic conditions, exchange rates, and oil prices, with a need to remain vigilant against rising household debt and increased volatility in the foreign exchange market [3]

韩国央行下调2025年经济增长预期至0.8%，预计2026年增速为1.6%。 ...

智通财经5月22日电，国际投行摩根士丹利22日将韩国今年经济增长预期上调至1.1%。报告指出，由于 关税不确定性的因素犹存，韩国经济将持续疲弱，但近期中美关税矛盾逐步降级，且美国暂缓征收"对 等关税"90天，因此将韩国今年经济增长预期由此前的1%上调至1.1%。此外，韩国明年经济增长预期同 样被上调0.1个百分点至1.5%。报告指出，下月大选后，财政将为经济注入新动力，预计韩国政府下半 年会编制补充预算。 摩根士丹利上调韩国今年经济增长预期至1.1% 此前为1% ...

2025 年 5 月 20 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 氧化铝期货将偏强宽幅震荡 铜、原 油期货将偏强震荡 螺纹钢、铁矿石期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2506 阻力位 3850 和 3873 点，支撑位 3830 和 3816 点；IH2506 阻力位 2699 和 2727 点，支撑位 2681 和 2664 点；IC2506 阻力位 5663 和 5700 点，支撑位 5560 和 5544 点；IM2506 阻力位 6000 ...

【资讯导读】 ·穆迪因美国主权信用评级被下调及政府支持能力减弱，下调了一些大型银行如美国银行和摩根大通的 存款评级。 ·日本计划创建类似美国ESTA的外国人入境前在线审查制度，适用于短期签证免签国家和地区，预计在 2028年度内启用。 ·外汇局：境内外汇供求基本平衡跨境资金总体呈现净流入 ·特朗普减税法案在众议院预算委员会通过 ·欧盟委员会春季经济展望报告下调了经济增长预期 【市场资讯】 ·外汇局公布4月外汇收支形势显示，境内外汇供求基本平衡，跨境资金总体呈现净流入，外资配置人民 币资产意愿持续向好。4月企业、个人等非银行部门跨境资金净流入173亿美元，其中，外资净增持境内 债券109亿美元，4月下旬投资境内股票转为净买入。 ·特朗普减税法案在众议院预算委员会通过，此前反对的议员此次弃权。目标是在7月4日前签署成法， 并争取于5月26日前在众议院获得全面通过。 ·美联储副主席杰斐逊指出，需防止政策变化引发的价格上涨转为持续通胀压力；纽约联储主席威廉姆 斯提到，投资者正在重新审视其美国资产投资策略，但未见大规模资金撤离迹象。他认为当前经济表现 良好，货币政策适中，美联储有足够时间考虑下一步利率调整；亚特兰大联储 ...

Economic Outlook - The European Commission has downgraded the economic growth forecast for the Eurozone, expecting a GDP growth of only 0.9% for this year, down from a previous estimate of 1.3% [1][2] - For 2026, the GDP growth is projected to be 1.4%, also lower than the earlier forecast of 1.6% [2] - The downgrade is attributed to rising tariffs, recent shifts in U.S. trade policy, and increased uncertainty regarding tariff configurations [1][2] Trade Relations - The Eurozone's growth outlook is significantly impacted by the ongoing "trade war," leading to strengthened ties between the EU and the UK [1] - A bilateral summit was held between the UK and the EU, marking the first since Brexit, focusing on defense, trade, and fishing rights [5][6] - A breakthrough agreement was reached to significantly reduce trade barriers and extend fishing rights until 2038 [6] Economic Challenges - Germany's economy is stagnating, with a projected growth rate of zero for this year, primarily due to its heavy reliance on exports and rising energy costs [3] - The European Commission noted that the risks to the growth outlook are skewed to the downside, with potential further fragmentation of global trade and climate-related disasters posing ongoing risks [2][3] Inflation and Employment - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone is expected to decline over the next two years, reaching 5.7% next year [4] - Consumer inflation is projected to decrease from 2.4% last year to 2.1% this year, and further down to 1.7% by 2026 [4] Fiscal Outlook - The public finance situation in the Eurozone is expected to slightly deteriorate, with the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP rising from 3.1% last year to 3.2% this year [4] - Public debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to increase from 88.9% in 2024 to 89.9% this year, and further to 91% by 2026 [4]

金十数据5月16日讯，巴克莱银行在周四晚间发布的一份报告中表示，由于美中贸易紧张局势出现缓和 迹象，美国经济今年陷入衰退的可能性已大幅降低，因此该行上调了对美国经济增长的预测。巴克莱目 前预计，美国经济将在今年增长0.5%，2026年增长1.6%，分别高于此前预测的-0.3%和1.5%。与此同 时，随着不确定性下降和整体经济环境改善，巴克莱也上调了对欧元区的增长预期。目前预计欧元区今 年将实现零增长，好于此前预测的萎缩0.2%。不过，欧元区仍可能在今年下半年出现技术性衰退，只 是衰退幅度将小于之前的预期。"总体而言，我们对欧元区的增长前景依然持谨慎态度，因为当前不确 定性仍然很高，欧美之间关于对等关税的谈判仍停留在技术层面，且尚未出现任何进展迹象。" 巴克莱上调美国及欧元区增长预期 但警告风险犹存 ...