Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month in July [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest month-on-month increase in six months [1] - The housing cost index contributed significantly to the CPI increase, with a year-on-year rise of 3.7% and a month-on-month rise of 0.2% [1] Inflation Drivers - Beef prices saw a notable increase of 1.5% month-on-month, influenced by drought conditions affecting ranch production and tariffs raising import beef prices [1] - Energy prices decreased, with the energy price index falling by 1.6% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month, partially offsetting inflationary pressures [1] - Gasoline prices decreased by 2.2% month-on-month, contributing to the overall decline in energy prices [1] Economic Implications - The inflation data indicates a slowdown in rent increases and a drop in gasoline prices, which may mitigate the impact of tariff measures [1] - Many businesses are likely absorbing a significant portion of the tariff costs, suggesting potential implications for pricing strategies [1] - The stability in July's inflation data keeps the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month on the table [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continuation of tariff suspensions between China and the U.S., alongside a rebound in U.S. core inflation [1][5][6] - The U.S. July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while core inflation accelerated to 3.1% [1][5] - U.S. tariff revenue reached a record high in July at $28 billion, but this did not prevent the budget deficit from widening to $291 billion, indicating ongoing fiscal challenges for the federal government [1][5] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate supply is affected by mining permit delays, with Chile's lithium salt exports increasing by 40% month-on-month in July 2025 [2][23] - The weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons, with an expected supply increase of 3% in August [2][23] - The short-term focus remains on inventory levels, particularly in overseas mines, with potential risks from supply-side fluctuations [2][23] Group 3 - The dual焦 (coke) market showed narrow fluctuations, with coal production decreasing, reflecting supply-side adjustments [3][24] - Despite expectations of production cuts in steel and coke plants, low steel inventory levels may support overall valuations [3][24] - The current macroeconomic policies are expected to provide support, but caution is advised regarding the impact of basis and price spreads on market movements [3][24] Group 4 - The soybean market is positively influenced by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's crop report, showing a good condition rating of 68% for soybeans [4][26] - The suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S. is expected to improve the export outlook for U.S. soybeans, leading to a rebound in prices [4][26] - The preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian canola seeds has led to an increase in canola meal prices [4][26] Group 5 - The international shipping index for Europe showed a decline, with Maersk's new pricing strategy impacting market rates [30] - The current shipping rates are under pressure, with expectations of further declines as other shipping companies may follow suit [30]

美国7月通胀延续温和走势，但核心价格指标显著回升。 当地时间8月12日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，7月消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，符合 预期，较6月的0.3%有所放缓；同比涨幅2.7%，与上月持平。剔除食品与能源的核心CPI环比升0.3%， 创1月以来最大涨幅，同比升至3.1%，高于6月的2.9%。 消息公布后，特朗普在社交平台"真实社交"发文称，关税并未推高通胀，也未对经济造成损害，并批评 高盛对关税影响的判断失准。 在最新的社交媒体发文中，特朗普称，"太迟先生"鲍威尔现在必须降息，"他总是做得太晚，造成的伤 害无法估量"。特朗普并透露，正考虑允许针对鲍威尔的重大诉讼继续推进，理由是后者在美联储大楼 翻修项目上的管理"糟糕透顶"，耗资30亿美元，却是一个"原本只需5000万美元修复的工程"。 Evercore ISI固定收益策略师斯坦·希普利认为，数据低于部分投资者担心的水平，市场因此松了口气， 这一结果"几乎锁定了"9月降息的可能。纽约梅隆银行宏观策略师约翰·维利斯认为，疲软的就业数据叠 加本次通胀表现，使美联储有更多理由下调政策利率。 目前市场预计，9月17日降息25个基点的概率已超过 ...

2025.08. 13 本文字数：915，阅读时长大约1.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间8月12日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"（Truth Social）发文，点名高盛集团 首席执行官大卫·所罗门（David Solomon），称其应"去找一位新的经济学家"，并讽刺所罗门 应"专注做DJ"，而不是经营一家大型金融机构。所罗门曾以"DJ D-Sol"的艺名在派对和音乐节担 任DJ。 特朗普称，关税为美国带来数万亿美元收入，并未引发通胀或对经济造成其他损害，"主要是由企业 和政府——其中很多是外国政府——在买单"。他批评高盛未能承认这一事实，认为该行早前关于市 场反应和关税效应的判断"完全错误"。 当地时间8月12日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，7月消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%， 符合预期，较6月的0.3%有所放缓；同比涨幅2.7%，与上月持平。剔除食品与能源的核心CPI环比 升0.3%，创1月以来最大涨幅，同比升至3.1%，高于6月的2.9%。 因7月通胀数据强化投资者对美联储下月降息的押注，标普500指数和纳指双双创下收盘纪录新高。 高盛首席经济学家简·哈祖斯（Jan H ...

Core Insights - Inflation accelerated again last month due to global trade disruptions affecting consumer prices [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month in July [2] - Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, reached its highest level in over two years, indicating that tariffs on imports may be driving inflation [4][5] Consumer Impact - Prices for household goods increased by 0.4% from June, with core goods inflation at a two-year high [5] - Grocery prices fell by 0.1% in July but were still up 2.2% year-over-year, with egg prices symbolizing inflation concerns, rising 16.4% compared to last year [5][6] - Coffee prices surged 14.5% year-over-year, while meat prices, particularly ground beef and steak, increased by 11.5% and 12.4% respectively [7] Healthcare Costs - Medical services prices rose 0.8% from June and 4.3% year-over-year, with hospital services up 5.8% [11] - Prescription drug prices decreased by 0.2%, while over-the-counter drug prices fell by 0.5% [12] - Health insurance prices increased by 4.4% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month [13] Housing and Transportation - Housing costs rose 0.2% last month and 3.7% over the past year, although signs indicate a cooling in housing costs [14] - Gasoline prices decreased by 2.2% from June and 9.5% year-over-year, with the average price at $3.14 per gallon [15] - Airfare prices increased by 4% last month after a slowdown in June [15] Future Outlook - Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, presenting challenges for the Fed in its upcoming meeting [17] - Despite the rise in core annual inflation, market expectations lean towards a potential interest rate cut in September [17]

美国7月CPI数据公布： · 总体CPI：环比 +0.2%（符合预期），同比 2.7%（略低于预期的 2.8%）。 特朗普愤怒地发帖称，在关税恐慌的背景下，通货膨胀率却没有上升： 数万亿美元正通过关税流入（美国），这对我们的国家、股市、总体财富以及几乎所有方面都极其有 利。已经有证据证明，即便到了现在这个阶段，关税也没有引发通胀，或者给国家带来其他问题，除了 大量现金源源不断地涌进财政部的金库。此外，事实也表明，在大多数情况下，消费者根本没有在支付 这些关税，主要是企业和各国政府——其中很多是外国的——在埋单。 但大卫·所罗门（高盛董事长兼CEO）和高盛拒绝在应得之处给予肯定。他们很早以前就在市场反应和 关税问题上做出了错误预测，而且错得离谱，就像他们在很多事情上都错了一样。我认为，大卫应该去 找一个新的经济学家，或者干脆专注于做DJ，而不是操心经营一家大型金融机构。 高盛首席经济学家 Jan Hatzius 的最新测算是这样的： · 核心CPI（剔除食品和能源）：环比 +0.3%（符合预期），同比 3.1%（略高于预期的 3.0%），是 2 月 以来最高。 数据公布后，各个市场都在诉说着自己对CPI数据的理 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. July CPI increase was lower than expected, leading investors to increase bets on a Fed rate cut in September [5] - Major U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with the Dow Jones up 483.52 points (1.10%), Nasdaq up 296.50 points (1.39%), and S&P 500 up 72.37 points (1.14%) [1] - The Nasdaq Composite Index reached an intraday high of 21689.68 points, while the S&P 500 hit 6446.55 points, both setting new intraday records [1] Sector Performance - Strong performance in sectors such as airline services and semiconductors, with Circle (CRCL.US) rising 1.3% and Intel (INTC.US) up 5.62% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 1.49%, with Tencent Music (TME.US) up 11.85% and Niu Technologies (NIU.US) up 11.69% [1] European Market - The German DAX30 index fell by 43.06 points (0.18%), while the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 17.34 points (0.19%) [2] - The French CAC40 index increased by 54.90 points (0.71%), and the Italian FTSE MIB index rose by 332.41 points (0.80%) [2] Asia-Pacific Market - The Nikkei 225 index rose by over 2%, while the KOSPI index in South Korea fell by 0.53% [3] Currency and Commodities - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.43%, closing at 98.097 [3] - Crude oil prices declined, with WTI crude down by $0.79 to $63.17 per barrel (1.24% drop) and Brent crude down by $0.51 to $66.12 per barrel (0.77% drop) [3] Gold and Cryptocurrency - Spot gold rose by 0.16% to $3348.09 per ounce, while Bitcoin increased by 0.95%, surpassing $120,000 [4] - Ethereum surged over 9% to $4614.2, nearing its historical high [4] Company News - Circle (CRCL.US) announced a public offering of 10 million shares, leading to a post-announcement drop of over 6% in its stock price [11] - Perplexity, an AI startup, made a $34.5 billion bid to acquire Google's Chrome browser, significantly higher than its own valuation of $18 billion [10]

美联储9月降息稳了？ 8月12日，美国劳工统计局发布的7月消费物价指数（CPI）显示，通胀并未出现恶化。市场开始憧憬美联储9月议息会议降息。 数据发布后，美股期货短线走高，美股三大指数集体高开。 有"美联储传声筒"之称的Nick Timiraos表示，在 7 月份的就业报告发布之后，降息的标准发生了变化。本来，如果今天CPI数据很高，9月降息的计划可能 会被打乱。7月份的通胀数据并非完全没有通胀现象，但其水平也不足以阻止在9月份进行降息。 Annex财富管理首席经济学家Brian Jacobsen表示，核心通胀传达的信息是，任何关税引发的通胀都可能是一个过程，而非单一事件。最终，关税可能会在 不同程度上体现在消费者价格中，但这些一次性的价格上涨不会一次性发生。这将在未来几个月让美联储和经济评论员感到困惑。只要通胀指标保持可 控，美联储就应该有足够的信心在9月份重启降息。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 44207.36 | 21500.41 | 6403.75 | | +232.27 +0.53% | +115.01 +0.54% | +30.30 + ...

8月12日，美国劳工统计局发布的7月消费物价指数（CPI）显示，通胀并未出现恶化。市场开始憧憬美联储9月议息会议降息。 数据发布后，美股期货短线走高，美股三大指数集体高开。 美联储9月降息稳了？ 有"美联储传声筒"之称的Nick Timiraos表示，在 7 月份的就业报告发布之后，降息的标准发生了变化。本来，如果今天CPI数据很高，9月降息的计划可能 会被打乱。7月份的通胀数据并非完全没有通胀现象，但其水平也不足以阻止在9月份进行降息。 Annex财富管理首席经济学家Brian Jacobsen表示，核心通胀传达的信息是，任何关税引发的通胀都可能是一个过程，而非单一事件。最终，关税可能会在 不同程度上体现在消费者价格中，但这些一次性的价格上涨不会一次性发生。这将在未来几个月让美联储和经济评论员感到困惑。只要通胀指标保持可 控，美联储就应该有足够的信心在9月份重启降息。 关税对通胀的影响 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 44207.36 | 21500.41 | 6403.75 | | +232.27 +0.53% +115.01 +0.54% | | ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the July CPI data in the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which is lower than expected, leading to speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2] - The July CPI data revealed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, both slightly above expectations [2][5] - Housing costs were the main driver of the CPI increase, while food prices remained stable and energy prices decreased by 1.1% [5] Group 2 - The political context includes President Trump's criticism of the Labor Statistics Bureau, which has led to the dismissal of its director and the nomination of a critic as the new director [6] - Market expectations indicate a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, up from 74% before the report [9] - The overall market reaction to the CPI data was positive, with stock index futures rising and bond yields falling, suggesting that traders had anticipated worse inflation figures [10]