Group 1 - The core point of the news is that China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with a notable decrease of $25.7 billion in July 2025, bringing its total holdings to $730.7 billion, the lowest level since 2009 [1][2]. - This reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings marks the fourth time China has decreased its investments in U.S. debt since the beginning of 2025, continuing a trend that has persisted for several years [2][3]. - The decline in U.S. Treasury holdings is attributed to various factors, including concerns over U.S. fiscal policies, rising national debt, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar's credibility [3][4]. Group 2 - In contrast to China's reduction, Japan and the UK have increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, highlighting China's unique position in the current market [3]. - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, with the latest figures showing reserves of 7.402 million ounces, indicating a strategic shift towards gold as a hedge against dollar risks [7][8]. - The proportion of gold in China's official international reserves is currently 7.3%, which is significantly lower than the global average of around 15%, suggesting room for further increases in gold holdings [8].

Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has reached $37 trillion, which is more than the entire GDP for 2024, indicating that the government is spending more than it earns [5][7] - The speed of debt accumulation has accelerated dramatically, with the debt increasing by $1 trillion in as little as three months, compared to five years for the previous $10 trillion increase [3][7] - Interest payments on the debt are projected to consume $879.9 billion in the 2024 fiscal year, which is more than military spending and healthcare combined, accounting for 13% of total federal expenditures [7][9] Group 2 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing that the debt and interest ratios are significantly higher than those of comparable countries [11][12] - The market reacted to the downgrade, with 30-year U.S. Treasury yields surpassing 5%, leading to investor sell-offs due to fears of devaluation [12][14] - Countries holding U.S. debt, such as China and Japan, are reducing their holdings, indicating a lack of confidence in U.S. debt, while the UK has increased its holdings [14][16] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma as it attempts to lower interest rates while managing inflation, complicating the situation further if it were to print more money to pay off the debt [22][28] - Historical examples of countries that printed money to pay off debts, such as Germany and Venezuela, resulted in severe hyperinflation and economic collapse, raising concerns about similar outcomes for the U.S. [24][26][46] - The global reliance on the U.S. dollar is decreasing, with countries increasingly opting for local currencies in trade, as evidenced by the rise of the Chinese yuan in international transactions [30][33][55] Group 4 - Proposed solutions to the U.S. debt issue include increasing taxes or reducing spending, but political resistance makes these options difficult to implement [40][42] - The Federal Reserve is also reducing its balance sheet, which may exacerbate the debt situation as less money in circulation could lead to higher borrowing costs [44] - The potential for rising unemployment due to economic downturns linked to debt management strategies poses a significant risk to the labor market [52][56]

美国政客又出昏招，这次玩起了新花样。华盛顿方面精心设计了一套三步走制裁方案，还拉拢众多盟友助阵，自以为能一招制胜。他们本想堵死别人的路， 却先砸了自家资本的饭碗。而中国早已备好更强力的反制措施，真正的反击才刚刚开始。 这些美国政客似乎活在美国即世界的幻想中。2025年9月18日，众议院中国问题特别委员会主席约翰·穆勒纳尔又献上一计昏招。这位所谓的中国问题专家致 信特朗普总统，扬言若中国限制稀土出口，美国将联合盟友禁止中国航班降落作为报复。 穆勒纳尔提出了三项具体措施：一是限制中国航空公司在美及其盟国的着陆权；二是收紧对华飞机及相关服务的出口管制；三是联合盟友限制中国航空业海 外投资。简而言之，就是威胁要对中国关闭航空大门。 但这位主席似乎没想过：如果美国禁止中国航班降落，他们自己的飞机还怎么飞往中国？要知道，包括波音在内的美国企业，以及众多欧洲公司都对中国市 场垂涎三尺。波音指望着向中国C919客机提供发动机技术，特朗普政府也盼着中国企业赴美投资，重振美国制造业。 这位天才主席的提案简直是在断送波音和特朗普背后金主的财路。若真实施，C919反而能松口气，不必再为发动机技术和适航证发愁；中国企业也省去了 海外投 ...

这是中国2025年以来第四次减持美债。从美债持仓变动来看，中国减持趋势已延续多年。自2022年4 月持仓跌破1万亿美元后，减持步伐持续，2022年、2023年、2024年分别减持1732亿美元、508亿美 元、573亿美元。 2025.09. 19 本文字数：975，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 近日，美国财政部公布的2025年7月国际资本流动报告显示，中国当月减持257亿美元美国国债，持 仓规模降至7307亿美元，创2009年以来新低。 值得注意的是，7月美债前三大海外债主中，日本、英国选择增持，中国的减持动作尤为突出。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬对第一财经表示，今年以来，美国关税政策引发市场恐慌，且美国财 政状况也受到国际社会广泛担忧，美债尤其是长债存在被抛售的现象，同时欧洲长债被抛售也对美债 市场有所波及。 中国社会科学院金融研究所助理研究员江振龙也对第一财经表示，中国减持美债的主要原因可总结 为，特朗普对外加税、对内减税和扩大支出以及美联储独立性受质疑使美元信用严重受损。 与减持美债形成呼应的是中国央行对黄金储备的持续增持。 数据显示，2022年四季度，全球购金潮兴起，中国央行重启黄 ...

Core Insights - China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $25.7 billion in July 2025, bringing its total holdings down to $730.7 billion, the lowest level since 2009 [1] - This marks the fourth reduction of US Treasury bonds by China in 2025, continuing a trend that has persisted for several years [1] - Since April 2022, when China's holdings fell below $1 trillion, the country has consistently reduced its holdings, with reductions of $173.2 billion in 2022, $50.8 billion in 2023, and $57.3 billion in 2024 [1] Summary by Sections US Treasury Holdings - In July 2025, China’s reduction of US Treasury bonds was particularly notable as Japan and the UK increased their holdings [2] - The overall trend shows a pattern of alternating increases and decreases in holdings, with a predominant focus on reduction in 2025 [1][2] Economic Factors - The reduction in US Treasury holdings is attributed to concerns over US tariff policies and the overall fiscal situation of the US, which has led to fears in the market [2] - Analysts suggest that the credibility of the US dollar has been severely impacted due to domestic tax cuts and increased spending under the Trump administration, as well as questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] Gold Reserves - In contrast to the reduction in US Treasury bonds, the People's Bank of China has been steadily increasing its gold reserves, having done so for ten consecutive months as of August 2025 [3] - This strategy aligns with a broader trend among central banks globally to increase gold purchases amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainties [3] - The shift towards gold is seen as a way to optimize reserve asset structures, as gold is not subject to unilateral sanctions and can effectively hedge against risks associated with the US dollar [3] Future Asset Allocation - The diversification of asset allocation is highlighted as a fundamental principle for China in optimizing its reserve asset structure moving forward [4]

Group 1 - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds for the fourth time since 2025, with a significant reduction of $25.7 billion in July, bringing its total holdings down to $730.7 billion, the lowest level since 2009 [1] - The trend of reducing U.S. Treasury holdings has been ongoing for several years, with reductions of $173.2 billion in 2022, $50.8 billion in 2023, and $57.3 billion in 2024 [1] - In 2025, the reduction pace has intensified, with alternating months of increases and decreases, but primarily focused on reductions [1] Group 2 - In July, while Japan and the UK increased their U.S. Treasury holdings, China's reduction was particularly notable [2] - Factors contributing to China's reduction include U.S. tariff policies causing market panic and concerns over the U.S. fiscal situation, leading to a sell-off of long-term U.S. bonds [2] - The credibility of the U.S. dollar has been severely impacted due to domestic tax cuts and increased spending under the Trump administration, as well as questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3 - In contrast to the reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings, the People's Bank of China has been steadily increasing its gold reserves, continuing a trend that began in late 2022 [3] - As of August 2025, China has increased its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, even in a high gold price environment [3] - The strategy of reducing U.S. Treasury holdings while increasing gold reserves aligns with the principle of maximizing returns on reserve assets amid global economic uncertainties [3][4] Group 4 - The diversification of asset allocation is a fundamental principle that China needs to follow in optimizing its reserve asset structure [4]

许多分析师将"去美元化"这一概念用于描述投资者为减少对美元依赖所采取的行动，因为美国总统特朗 普对贸易伙伴征收了高额关税，并威胁要削弱美联储的独立性。尽管存在种种担忧，但有证据表明，投 资者仍继续大量购入美国股票和债券，并通过购买衍生品来保护这些投资免受美元进一步贬值的影响。 花旗策略师们仍对美元持看跌态度，预计到今年年底，欧元兑美元汇率将从约1.1750升至至1.20。花旗 银行还预计美元兑日元的汇率将走软，到 2026 年底，美元兑日元汇率将降至 1美元兑135日元，跌幅约 为 9%。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗分析师们驳斥了有关全球投资者正试图减少对美元依赖的观点，他们称这 种"去美元化"的说法是"一种幻象"，并指出这种说法并未得到经济数据的支持。美元今年已下跌近 9%，但由Osamu Takashima领衔的策略师团队在给客户的一份报告中指出，美国的国际收支数据并未证 实存在大量美元资产的抛售现象。他们还补充道，从长期来看，外国投资流入与该货币的表现之间并无 显著关联。 花旗策略师们写道："我们认为，'去美元化'这一说法是为了为因平仓操作和调整对冲比率而导致美元 贬值的现象进行辩解而出现的。我们认为，美 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut and Powell's hint of a slowdown in future interest rate cuts, leading to market divergence and profit - taking. However, there are still medium - to long - term supporting factors such as continuous central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the de - dollarization trend, so the bottom support of the gold price is stable after the correction [3]. - The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with market expectations, but it will not enter a continuous interest rate cut cycle, which cools down the market sentiment. The short - term supply - tight pattern of tin in September is difficult to change, and the weak demand has little impact on the price for the time being [18][97]. - The price of aluminum reached a new high this year, but the downstream receiving sentiment is poor, and the future inventory is an important factor determining the price trend. The alumina market is in a state of supply surplus, and the price may be weak in the short term. The price of cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate strongly [36][37][38]. - The supply of zinc is in an over - supply state, the market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average, and the LME inventory continues to decline. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [66]. - For the nickel industry chain, there are concerns about the supply of nickel ore, the new energy sector provides support, the stainless steel market is weak, and the overall market is weak due to the Fed's interest rate cut not exceeding expectations [82]. - For lithium carbonate, the "Golden September and Silver October" downstream peak - season demand supports the price, and the short - term supply - side disturbance does not change the support logic [108]. - For the silicon industry chain, the short - term sentiment is positively supported, but the industry is under long - term structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policy expectations, and the trend is uncertain [117]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Analysis**: The gold price is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut and the rebound of the US dollar index, but the bottom support is stable due to factors such as central bank gold purchases. The trading data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures are presented in multiple charts [3]. - **Long - term Factors**: Global central bank gold purchases continue, for example, China has increased its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months, and Switzerland's gold exports to China have soared by 254%. Geopolitical risks and the de - dollarization trend remain unchanged [3]. Copper - **Market Sentiment**: The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with expectations, but it will not enter a continuous interest rate cut cycle, which cools down the market sentiment [18]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper futures and spot are provided, including domestic and foreign markets. The import profit and loss, processing fees, and inventory data are also presented [19][22][28][34]. Aluminum - **Aluminum Price**: The price of aluminum reached a new high this year, but the downstream receiving sentiment is poor, and the future inventory is an important factor determining the price trend [36]. - **Alumina Market**: The alumina market is in a state of supply surplus, and the price may be weak in the short term. The core contradiction of bauxite lies in the tight domestic ore, low Guinea bauxite shipments, and high inventory [37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate strongly due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum [38]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot are provided, as well as relevant spread and inventory data [39][45][53][62]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc is in an over - supply state, the market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average, and the LME inventory continues to decline [66]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc futures and spot are provided, as well as relevant spread and inventory data [67][73][78]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Industry Situation**: There are concerns about the supply of nickel ore, the new energy sector provides support, the stainless steel market is weak, and the overall market is weak due to the Fed's interest rate cut not exceeding expectations [82]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventory data of nickel and stainless steel futures are provided [83]. Tin - **Market Situation**: The Fed's interest rate cut cools down the market sentiment. The short - term supply - tight pattern in September is difficult to change, and the weak demand has little impact on the price for the time being [97]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of tin futures and spot are provided, as well as inventory data [98][102][104]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Support**: The "Golden September and Silver October" downstream peak - season demand supports the price, and the short - term supply - side disturbance does not change the support logic [108]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot are provided, as well as inventory data [109][111][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industry Outlook**: The short - term sentiment is positively supported, but the industry is under long - term structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policy expectations, and the trend is uncertain [117]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, as well as production, inventory, and cost data [118][125][133][142].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance today, with the Hang Seng Index closing flat at 26,545.1 points and a total turnover of HKD 3,768.12 million. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.17% to 9,472.35 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.37% to 6,294.42 points. For the week, the Hang Seng Index gained 0.59%, the China Enterprises Index rose by 1.15%, and the Tech Index saw a 5.09% increase [1]. Blue Chip Performance - Sands China (01928) led the blue-chip stocks, rising by 6.19% to HKD 21.6, contributing 4.77 points to the Hang Seng Index. The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays have driven demand for gaming stocks, with strong expectations for the Golden Week based on nearly full hotel bookings [2][4]. - Other notable blue-chip performers included China Hongqiao (01378) up 4.67% to HKD 26.46, Galaxy Entertainment (00027) up 4.22% to HKD 42.46, while Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) fell by 2.62% to HKD 35, dragging the index down by 1.74 points [2]. Sector Highlights Gaming Sector - The gaming sector saw significant gains, with Melco International Development (00200) up 6.6%, Sands China (01928) up 6.19%, and Wynn Macau (01128) up 6.02%. Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for August reached MOP 22.16 billion, marking a new monthly high, with a year-on-year increase of 12.2% [3][4]. Gold Sector - Gold stocks rebounded, with Shandong Gold (01787) rising by 6.13% to HKD 35.68, Lingbao Gold (03330) up 3.98% to HKD 16.46, and Zijin Mining (02899) up 2.76% to HKD 29.08. The price of spot gold has stabilized above USD 3,650 following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [4]. Coal Sector - Coal stocks performed well, with Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) up 6.51% to HKD 10.63, and China Shenhua Energy (01088) up 1.42% to HKD 38.46. Recent investigations into overproduction in Inner Mongolia are expected to curb excess supply [5][6]. Robotics Sector - The robotics sector showed mixed results, with Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) down 6.21% while DCH Holdings (00179) rose by 5.78%. Recent rumors regarding Tesla's robot orders were denied by Elon Musk, but the Chinese government is pushing for the application of humanoid robots in various industries [7]. Notable Stock Movements - Jinfang Pharmaceutical-B (02595) debuted with a remarkable increase of 106.47% to HKD 42.1. The company focuses on developing new treatment solutions for tumors and autoimmune diseases [8]. - Hongteng Precision (06088) surged by 21.44% to HKD 5.89, benefiting from Nvidia's investment in Intel for AI infrastructure [9]. - Cloudfin Financial (00376) rose by 10.55% to HKD 6.39 after appointing a former Ant Group executive to lead its Web3 development [10]. - Weimob Group (02013) increased by 10% to HKD 2.86 following a significant share placement [11]. - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) saw a rise of 9.51% to HKD 37.3, with the company announcing full production capacity for its energy storage cells [12]. - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) reached a new high, increasing by 8.55% to HKD 61.6, driven by interest in hollow core fiber technology [13][14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a preventive measure, with potential implications for gold prices in the near term, suggesting a possible "phase top" after the cut [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term investment value of gold remains intact due to ongoing economic adjustments and persistent inflation concerns, alongside expectations of a more accommodative Fed post-2026 [1] - The global shift towards de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and the need for diversified investment portfolios are driving central banks and institutional investors to increase their gold allocations [1] Group 2 - Gold stocks have shown renewed activity, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Shandong Gold, Lingbao Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Zijin Mining, reflecting a positive market response [2] - As of the latest update, Shandong Gold's stock rose by 5.12% to HKD 35.34, Lingbao Gold increased by 3.47% to HKD 16.38, Chifeng Jilong Gold climbed by 3.18% to HKD 29.24, and Zijin Mining gained 3.11% to HKD 29.18 [2]