Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors reported Q3 2025 earnings that met expectations, with significant revenue growth driven by new model deliveries [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [1] - Automotive sales revenue was 18.05 billion yuan, up 105.3% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Service and other income amounted to 2.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.1% [1] - Q3 2025 net loss narrowed to 380 million yuan from 480 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a non-GAAP net loss of 150 million yuan [1] - Gross margin improved, with a comprehensive gross margin of 20.1%, up 4.9 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - Automotive gross margin was 13.1%, slightly down due to product upgrades [1] Cost Management - R&D expense ratio for Q3 was 11.9%, showing a decrease of 4.2 and 0.2 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, respectively [1] - Selling, administrative, and general expense ratio was 12.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.9 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.4 percentage points [1] Sales Volume - Q2 2025 wholesale sales reached 116,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 149.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.4% [1] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 156,000 yuan [1] AI Business Development - Xiaopeng is advancing its AI business with clear implementation plans across various dimensions, including intelligent driving, Robotaxi, robotics, and flying cars [2] - The second-generation VLA model aims to enhance reasoning efficiency and response speed [2] - A partnership with Gaode for Robotaxi services is established, with plans to launch three models in 2026 [2] - The new generation IRON robot will focus on guide and shopping scenarios, with deployment expected in 2026 [2] - Plans for flying cars include test flights in 2026 and global deliveries in the second half of 2026 [2] Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 78.5 billion, 140.2 billion, and 201 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 92%, 79%, and 43% respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are revised to -1.4 billion, 5.4 billion, and 9.5 billion yuan [3] - EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at -0.71, 2.81, and 4.99 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 26 and 15 for 2026 and 2027 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to strengthening AI competitiveness [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 20.1%, which is a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8 percentage points [1] - The net loss narrowed to 380 million yuan, a year-on-year improvement of 1.43 billion yuan, while the Non-GAAP net loss was 150 million yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 1.38 billion yuan [1] Automotive Business - The total delivery volume for Q3 2025 reached a record high of 116,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 149.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.4% [1] - The revenue from the automotive business was 18.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.9% [1] - The average revenue per vehicle was 176,000 yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.8% [1] - The gross margin for the automotive business was 13.1%, a year-on-year increase of 4.5 percentage points, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.2 percentage points due to product upgrades [1] Service Revenue - The service business revenue for Q3 2025 was 2.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 67.3% [2] - The gross margin for the service business was 74.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 14.5 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.1 percentage points [2] Cost Management - R&D expenses for Q3 2025 were 2.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.1% [2] - Selling and General expenses were 2.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.0% [2] - The company maintained a cash reserve of 48.33 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 760 million yuan [2] Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, the company expects delivery volumes between 125,000 and 132,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.6% to 44.3% [2] - Projected revenue for Q4 2025 is estimated to be between 21.5 billion and 23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.5% to 42.8% [2] Strategic Developments - The company is positioned for a strong new car cycle in 2025, with multiple new models expected to enhance sales [3] - The integration of AI technology is anticipated to redefine the automotive landscape, with advancements in autonomous driving and the introduction of new AI applications [3] - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are estimated at 77.3 billion and 130.2 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-sales ratios of 1.9X and 1.1X [3]

上调目标价至790 港元，买入评级：公司Q3 核心业务利润率改善延续，AI 赋能在广告与游戏等高毛利 板块已形成规模化回报。基于2026 年盈利预测与估值模型，目标价790 港元，较上一收盘价有26.7%上 行空间，维持"买入"评级。 机构：第一上海 研究员：李京霖/吕彦辛 2025Q3 业绩稳健增长，AI 提效与生态扩张共同驱动：得益于视频号、小程序、搜一搜等核心生态场景 的持续扩张，以及游戏、广告与金融科技三大业务条线的同步改善，2025Q3 公司录得收入1930 亿元人 民币，同比增长15%，环比增长5%；毛利1088 亿元，同比增长22%，毛利率受益于高质量广告库存与 游戏内容结构优化，较去年同期进一步提升。Non-IFRS 归母净利润706 亿元，同比增长18%，环比增长 12%，利润增速显著快于收入增速，反映出经营效率与结构优化带来的盈利质量提升。本季度AI 在精 准定向、搜索相关性、内容生成与游戏生产链路的提效作用逐步增强，研发投入持续保持高位，资本开 支节奏更趋稳健，算力投入进入"效率优先期"，在国产GPU 性能进一步靠齐后再推进大规模扩容。 Q3 长青游戏矩阵稳健扩张，新品表现与核心IP 驱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in 3Q25, with adjusted net income exceeding expectations due to smart EV breakeven, investment disposal gains, and other income, while traditional business faces challenges from rising memory prices and IoT competition [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - 3Q25 revenue reached RMB113 billion, representing a 22% year-over-year increase, with gross profit margin (GPM) at 22.9%, up 0.4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1] - Adjusted net income for 3Q25 was RMB11.3 billion, beating expectations by 8-13%, primarily driven by investment disposal gains and other income [1] - The smart EV segment achieved its first profitable quarter with an operational profit of RMB0.7 billion and profit per vehicle exceeding RMB6,000 [2] Group 2: Business Segments - Smart EV revenue surged by 36.4% quarter-over-quarter to RMB29 billion, driven by the YU7 SUV, although GPM slightly declined to 25.5% due to initial ramp-up costs [2] - Smartphone revenue decreased by 3% year-over-year to RMB46 billion, with an average selling price (ASP) decline of 4% year-over-year [3] - IoT revenue declined by 29% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to a 64.8% drop in smart large home appliance sales, but GPM improved to 23.9% [4] - Internet services revenue grew by 11% year-over-year to RMB9.4 billion, driven by a 17% increase in advertising revenue, with GPM at 76.9% [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its 2025 smartphone shipment target from 170 million-180 million to 160 million-170 million due to memory price pressures [3] - The company expects internet services revenue to reach RMB37 billion in 2025, reflecting a 10% year-over-year growth [5] - The new target price for the company remains at HK$71.14, with a reiteration of the BUY rating [6]

机构：交银国际 研究员：童钰枫/王大卫 手机毛利率或因存储涨价承压：2Q25 以来各类存储器价格普遍上涨。我们认为，本轮存储涨价在时间/ 幅度上或超我们/市场的预期。我们认为小米或通过价格调整部分抵消存储价格上涨压力。而AIOT 产品 毛利率韧性较强，或使手机x AIoT 业务总体毛利率水平保持相对稳定。我们下调2026 年智能手机毛利 率预测至9.4%（前值12.1%），预测手机x AIoT 总体毛利率为21.2%。 汽车业务2026 年订单或面临竞争，购置税减半一定程度影响毛利率：管理层称本周或完成之前全年35 万辆销售目标。基于北京工厂技改后的产能情况以及目前面临的订单竞争，下调2026 年销量至56.9 万 辆（前值70.0 万辆）。我们下调2025/26 年汽车毛利率预测至25.1%/24.5%（前值26.0%/27.1%），主要 考虑到明年购置税减半、原材料涨价及竞争加剧对毛利率的影响。 下调目标价至50 港元。考虑到手机业务受存储涨价周期影响，以及汽车业务面临的竞争，我们下调 2025/26 年收入预测至4,666/5,340 亿元，下调2025/26 年经调整EPS 至1.66/1.74 元。 ...

11月21日，正在进行的广州车展中，小米汽车发布XiaomiHAD增强版，此次升级首次引入强化学习+世 界模型的大模型训练方法，三大行车能力的提升：纵向加减速更丝滑、横向变道更果断、路口选择更精 准。该版本将于广州车展后，通过OTAHyperOS1.11系列陆续推送给用户。 在强化学习+世界模型的训练框架下，模型可在世界模型构建的虚拟环境中反复探索，即走对了就加 分、走错了就扣分，通过这种模式，模型可以自主探索并掌握最优驾驶策略，让辅助驾驶行为更贴合真 实路况需求。 小米认为辅助驾驶的技术本质是AI，仅2025年，小米集团在AI领域投资超70亿元，并且组建超过1800 人的智能驾驶团队，并设立北京、上海、武汉三大研发中心。 算法与认知双提升 小米辅助驾驶的发展历经了多次迭代。1000万Clips端到端架构是包含大量专业司机数据的大模型，实 现了从规则驱动到数据驱动的跨越。引入强化学习+世界模型架构，标志着小米辅助驾驶进入认知驱动 的阶段。世界模型能够生成海量的场景，不再只依赖现实道路随机出现的数据，而是能够基于小米自建 大规模4D数字资产库，生成海量、可控、可复现的训练场景，系统可以在这些高保真的虚拟环境中进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness with a notable increase in unemployment rate despite job additions, indicating higher economic downturn risks [1] Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 48-day delay in the release of September non-farm payroll data due to the government shutdown [1] - September non-farm employment added 110,000 jobs, which is better than expected, but the unemployment rate reached 4.4%, marking a recent high [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the employment data release, the Nasdaq index experienced a nearly 5% fluctuation, closing down 2.15%, while the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 3.26% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December increased slightly to 39.1%, up from 30.1% the previous day [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite recent market volatility influenced by global conditions and a slower pace of Fed rate cuts, the initiation of a rate cut cycle is expected to improve global liquidity [1] - Core assets such as the Hang Seng Technology Index and Hang Seng Internet Index, which are historically undervalued, are likely to benefit from AI narratives and capital inflows [1] - It is recommended to pay attention to the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) and the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330), both of which are the largest in their respective sectors and focus on leading companies in AI and technology [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock technology sector has become a key target for capital due to its high growth potential, amidst the backdrop of "excess liquidity" and "asset scarcity" in the domestic market [1] - In 2025, southbound capital is expected to reach a record inflow of nearly 1.3 trillion HKD, with a significant increase in the technology sector's share, making it a central focus for domestic investors in Hong Kong stocks [1] - The influx of funds is strongly supported by a loose liquidity environment, with the one-year fixed deposit rate in China dropping to a historical low of 0.95%, leading to a noticeable trend of "activating" deposits among the 150 trillion CNY of household savings [1] Group 2 - The M1 year-on-year growth rate rose to 7.2% in September, with 1.3 trillion CNY of household demand deposits shifting towards the capital market during July and August [1] - Amid the global trend of "de-dollarization," the allocation of funds from Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) to the Chinese market has rapidly increased to near benchmark levels, creating a synergy between foreign and domestic capital that continues to drive the valuation recovery of the Hong Kong stock technology sector [1] - With the continuation of the loose liquidity pattern, the capital premium for the technology sector is expected to further expand [1] Group 3 - Recently, there has been a significant inflow of ETF funds into core AI assets in Hong Kong stocks, with the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) seeing a net inflow of 2.4 billion CNY in just one week, indicating strong confidence from large investors in the Hong Kong technology sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates that the Federal Reserve's policy choices will be increasingly path-dependent due to overlapping influences of inflation, economic growth pressures, and the political cycle [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The upcoming change in leadership at the Federal Reserve, with Jerome Powell's term ending in May 2026, is expected to significantly impact policy communication and market expectations [1] - Monetary policy is evolving from a passive response to economic conditions to a more integrated approach that considers fiscal pressures, debt costs, and administrative policy preferences [1] - The certainty of a rate cut path is increasing, driven by the sensitivity of fiscal conditions to interest rates, which necessitates balancing fiscal sustainability with debt issuance pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Short-term inflation disturbances caused by tariffs have not altered the overall downward trend of inflation, while the labor market is experiencing wage stickiness that is gradually easing due to factors like AI replacement and immigration policy adjustments [1] - This easing of wage stickiness provides additional space for a more accommodative interest rate environment [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Projections - The macro team projects that the Federal Reserve will implement approximately four rate cuts by the end of 2026, bringing the policy rate to a range of 2.75% to 3% [2] - The reduction in interest rates is expected to alleviate debt financing cost pressures and create a mild recovery space for interest-sensitive sectors such as real estate, serving as a critical support mechanism amid economic downturn pressures [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong technology sector is experiencing a decline, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) dropping over 2%, and major holdings like JD Health, Kingsoft Biotech, Innovent Biologics, Hua Hong Semiconductor, SMIC, and WuXi Biologics seeing significant losses [1] - The U.S. released the delayed September non-farm payroll report, showing an unemployment rate that exceeded expectations, contributing to short-term pressure on the Hong Kong market [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate significant disagreement among officials regarding whether to continue interest rate cuts in December, impacting market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Kuaishou's AI video model has upgraded to Turbo 2.5, positioning it among the global leaders, with a B-end commercialization package set to launch, indicating substantial future monetization potential [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term growth logic for the Hong Kong technology sector remains clear, supported by valuation recovery and ongoing policy empowerment [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) has seen a net inflow of funds for four consecutive days, accumulating 206 million yuan, with a latest scale of 2.398 billion yuan as of November 20 [1]