2026 年产品大周期有望驱动主业向上，大众合作深化或增厚长期业绩公司指引2025Q3 收入196-210 亿 元、交付11.3-11.8 万辆，ASP 约17.3-17.8 万元（环比提升或由M03 max、新P7 规模交付驱动）；2025 年9-12 月销量有望突破4 万辆/月，受益于新P7 放量、鲲鹏超电X9 上市交付，高ASP 产品占比提升或驱 动汽车毛利持续提升，支撑2025Q4 盈亏平衡目标顺利实现。展望2026 年往后，"一车双能"、全新车 型、海外市场产品周期有望同步启动，重点投入外观设计、智能驾驶或能切实强化产品力，端侧 VLA+VLM 大模型、2250TOPS 有效算力图灵芯片有望扩大Ultra 版本智驾体验优势，从而驱动品牌势 能向上。公司与大众EEA 架构合作扩展至中国区全部ICEV、PHEV，相关车型SOP 后有望贡献第三大 经常性收入流、长期增厚公司业绩水平。 风险提示：产品推出不如预期、产能及供应链风险、行业竞争加剧。 机构：开源证券 研究员：张可/赵旭杨 2025H2 往后产品大周期势能有望向上，大众合作或增厚长期业绩基于2025 年市场竞争激烈、2026 年产 品大周期开启， ...

汽车/乘用车 小鹏汽车-W (09868.HK) 产品大周期势能有望向上，大众合作或增厚长期业绩 2025 年 08 月 21 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/20 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 80.450 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 106.00/26.000 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 1,533.78 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 1,533.76 | | 总股本(亿股) | 19.07 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 19.06 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 73.0 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -80% 0% 80% 160% 240% 320% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 小鹏汽车-W 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《2025Q2 G7 有望领衔上行，2025H2 有赖品牌上探 —港股公司信息更新 报告》-2025.3.20 《小鹏汽车——智能化领军，涅槃重 生—公司深度报告》-2024.12.20 《2025 年车型矩阵丰富、降本及出口 或驱动盈利拐点 —港股公司信息更 新报告》-2024.11.21 ——港 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating to China Resources Beer with a target price of HK$33.50 [7][10][12] Core Insights - In 1H25, China Resources Beer reported total revenue of RMB23,942 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, which aligns with expectations. Normalized EBIT and shareholders' profit rose to RMB7,078 million and RMB5,789 million, marking increases of 11.2% and 23.0% year-on-year, respectively, both exceeding expectations [8][11] - Beer sales increased by 2.6% year-on-year to RMB23,161 million, with an average selling price (ASP) increase of 0.4% and volume growth of 2.2%. The gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3%, driven by stabilized ASP due to premiumization and lower raw material prices, which saw an average unit cost decrease of 4.1% year-on-year [9][11] - Baijiu sales, however, declined by 34% year-on-year to RMB781 million, falling short of expectations. Despite the GPM remaining unchanged year-on-year, EBIT turned negative at RMB152 million, compared to a profit of RMB48 million in 1H24, reflecting the impact of anti-extravagance policies starting from 2Q25 in China [9][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 1H25 was RMB23,942 million, up 0.8% YoY [8] - Normalized EBIT and shareholders' profit were RMB7,078 million and RMB5,789 million, up 11.2% and 23.0% YoY, respectively [8] - Beer sales increased 2.6% YoY to RMB23,161 million, with ASP up 0.4% and volume up 2.2% [9] Margin Analysis - GPM improved by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3% due to premiumization and lower raw material costs [9] - Baijiu sales dropped 34% YoY to RMB781 million, with EBIT turning negative at RMB152 million [9] Valuation and Forecast - The target price is set at HK$33.50 based on a 17.0x average P/E for 2025-26 [10][12] - Bottom-line forecasts for 2025-27 have been revised up by 12%, 3%, and 2% respectively [10][12]

Core Insights - The G7 is a key new vehicle under Xiaopeng's "Smart Driving 2.0" strategy, aimed at boosting both brand image and sales after a rebound last year [1] - Xiaopeng's overall sales are primarily supported by the entry-level MONA M03, while the G6 and G9 have underperformed in the mainstream 200,000 to 250,000 yuan new energy SUV market, leading to a decline in market influence [1] - To achieve profitability by Q4 2025, the G7 must succeed in the market and elevate Xiaopeng's overall technology and product branding [1] Product Overview - The G7 offers three models priced between 195,800 to 225,800 yuan, with a maximum range of 702 km [5] - The Ultra version features three self-developed Turing AI chips, providing over 2250 TOPS of local computing power and L3-level autonomous driving capabilities [9] - The intelligent cockpit uses an 8295P chip combined with a dedicated AI chip, supporting local semantic understanding and proactive service [12] - The G7 has a wheelbase of 2890 mm, significantly enhancing rear space and trunk capacity, and includes 39 storage designs [15] - It employs an 800V high-voltage platform and 5C battery, enabling ultra-fast charging from 10% to 80% in just 12 minutes [20] Competitive Strategy - The G7 is positioned in the 200,000 to 250,000 yuan mid-size pure electric SUV market, competing against models like Lido L60, Zeekr 7X, and Avita 07, which had May sales of 6,281, 4,651, and 3,440 units respectively [22] - Xiaopeng emphasizes a pricing advantage, with the G7 priced 10,000 to 30,000 yuan lower than similar competitors, while offering longer range and higher comfort [22] - The strategy focuses on "higher configuration for similar prices" and "lower prices for similar configurations," aiming for a straightforward competitive approach [23] Market Challenges - Xiaopeng faces multi-dimensional market competition, with pressure from traditional automakers and new entrants in pricing and technology [24] - The company aims to sell smart technology and cost-effectiveness in the mainstream market, which presents significant operational challenges [25] - The G7's initial delivery will not include full autonomous driving capabilities, with updates expected later in the year [27] Financial Performance - Xiaopeng's financial data shows a revenue increase from 40.3 billion yuan in Q1 2023 to 130.5 billion yuan in Q4 2023, with a gross margin improvement to 24.6% [26] - The average revenue per vehicle has fluctuated, with a notable increase to 254,000 yuan in Q1 2024 [26] - The company has successfully reduced costs, allowing for competitive pricing while maintaining profitability [29] Future Focus - The G7's performance is critical for Xiaopeng's brand image and profitability as it seeks to enter the mid-to-high-end pure electric SUV market [36] - Upcoming models, including the new P7 and various range-extended versions, are expected to launch in 2025, with the G7 needing to demonstrate strong sales to pave the way for these products [30]