Core Viewpoint - Tencent's Q3 performance exceeded market expectations, with significant growth in revenue, gross profit, and adjusted net profit, driven by strong performance in its gaming, marketing, and fintech segments [1][2][3]. Group 1: Q3 Financial Performance - Tencent reported Q3 revenue of 192.87 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 15% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 188.8 billion yuan [1]. - Gross profit reached 108.8 billion yuan, up 22% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter, also exceeding the expected 106.39 billion yuan [1]. - Adjusted net profit was 70.55 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase and a 12% quarter-over-quarter increase, beating the consensus estimate of 65.97 billion yuan by 6.9% [1]. Group 2: Value-Added Services (VAS) - Domestic gaming revenue was 42.8 billion yuan, a 15% year-over-year increase, driven by stable contributions from games like "Delta Action" and "Honor of Kings" [2]. - International gaming revenue reached 20.8 billion yuan, a 43% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations due to growth from Supercell games and strong sales of new titles [2]. Group 3: Marketing Business - Marketing revenue for Q3 was 36.2 billion yuan, a 21% year-over-year increase, surpassing the expected 35.6 billion yuan, driven by AI-enhanced advertising platforms [2]. - The introduction of Tencent's advertising AIM+ improved targeting and bidding capabilities, leading to increased ad exposure and advertiser investment [2]. Group 4: Fintech Performance - Fintech revenue was 58.2 billion yuan, a 10% year-over-year increase, supported by growth in commercial payment activities and consumer loan services [3]. - AI service demand contributed to revenue growth, with significant improvements in the capabilities of Tencent's AI models [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company projects non-IFRS net profits of 257.02 billion yuan, 290.51 billion yuan, and 319.01 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating stable growth in gaming and advertising sectors [3].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 193 billion RMB in Q3 2025, marking a 15% year-on-year increase and a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase, driven by the expansion of core ecosystem scenarios such as video accounts, mini-programs, and search [1] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders reached 70.6 billion RMB, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth and a 12% quarter-on-quarter growth, indicating improved operational efficiency and profit quality [1] - The AI's role in enhancing efficiency across various business lines is becoming increasingly significant, with a focus on precision targeting, search relevance, content generation, and game production [1] Business Segments Gaming - Value-added services revenue was 95.9 billion RMB, a 16% year-on-year increase, with domestic game revenue at 42.8 billion RMB, up 15% [1] - Key titles such as "Delta Force," "Honor of Kings," and "Peacekeeper Elite" showed strong performance, with "Delta Force" achieving a DAU of over 30 million and "Honor of Kings" reaching a record DAU of 139 million [1] - International game revenue surged by 43% to 20.8 billion RMB, driven by significant contributions from titles like Supercell's "Clash Royale" [1] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue for Q3 was 35.8 billion RMB, reflecting a 21% year-on-year increase, with video accounts and mini-programs leading the growth [1] - The improvement in eCPM and automated ad placement efficiency driven by AI contributed to revenue growth, although traffic expansion remained a primary revenue driver [1] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue reached 58.2 billion RMB, a 10% year-on-year increase, with strong performance in commercial payments and enterprise services [1] - The company maintained one of the lowest bad debt ratios in the industry for consumer credit, while its cloud business continued to grow, supported by advancements in AI capabilities [1] Investment Outlook - The target price for the company's stock has been raised to 790 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 26.7% from the previous closing price, with a "buy" rating maintained due to improved profit margins and AI-driven returns in high-margin sectors [2]

（1）LLM：公司于9 月末发布文生图模型混元图像3.0，性能达到行业领先水平，超过谷歌的Nano Banana 模型；（2）Agentic AI：将MCP 集成于微信生态内，推动智能体 AI 在小程序领域的应用，有 望将微信打造为AI 时代操作系统。CAPEX 方面，受芯片供给等因素影响，公司25Q3 CAPEX 为129.83 亿元，同比下降24%，环比下降32%。我们认为短期内，公司主要将算力资源投入于内部业务的使用， 如游戏、广告、混元基础模型能力升级等，对于外部云服务收入则相对谨慎，目前公司用于支持内部业 务发展的GPU 资源充足。 向后展望，腾讯正基于微信生态系统，开发微信内部AI 智能体，有望应用于电商、支付、办公等多场 景，打造AI 时代操作系统。 投资建议：公司游戏+广告核心业务贡献稳定盈利以及现金流增长，公司维持AI 投入，微信生态具备长 期AI 发展潜力，有望成为AI 时代操作系统。我们预计2025-2027 年公司实现营收7504/8339/9111 亿元； 经调整归母净利润2589/2987/3199 亿元；对应PE 分别为21.1/18.4/17.2 倍，维持"买入"评级。 推出智 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's Q3 2025 performance significantly exceeded expectations, driven by a strong recovery in the gaming business and effective monetization of AI technology in advertising [1] Financial Performance - Tencent reported total revenue of 192.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15%, surpassing market expectations by 2% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders reached 70.6 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 7% [1] - The gaming business grew by 23% year-on-year, with domestic growth at 15% and international growth at 43%, both significantly exceeding expectations [2][3] - Advertising revenue increased by 21% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 3.7 percentage points to 56.4% [1] Gaming Business Insights - Domestic gaming revenue reached 42.8 billion RMB, with notable performances from long-standing games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [2] - The new game "Delta Action" achieved over 30 million daily active users in September, ranking among the top three in revenue [2] - International gaming revenue reached 20.8 billion RMB, driven by strong performances from "PUBG Mobile" and new titles [2][3] - Despite a projected slowdown in international gaming growth in Q4 2025 due to high base effects, a robust pipeline of games for 2026 is expected to support long-term growth [2][3] AI and Advertising Performance - AI significantly enhanced advertising eCPM and inventory release efficiency, contributing to a 21% year-on-year increase in advertising revenue, totaling 36.2 billion RMB [3] - The gross margin for advertising improved from 53% to 57% year-on-year, driven by AI advancements [3] - AI-driven advertising targeting and technology upgrades contributed 40-50% of the eCPM increase [3] Other Business Segments - Financial Technology Services (FBS) revenue was 58.2 billion RMB, a 10% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin improvement of 2.4 percentage points to 50.2% [4] - The company experienced robust growth in online payments and improvements in offline retail and transportation sectors [4] - Cash capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was 20 billion RMB, with a downward adjustment in 2025 CapEx guidance due to temporary chip supply constraints rather than a strategic reduction [4] Investment Outlook - Tencent's Q3 performance highlights strong growth in gaming and AI-driven profit release, with a commitment to high-quality growth strategies [5] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, reflecting confidence in its strategic position in the consumer sector and healthy profit growth [5]

Market Overview - The overall market is experiencing a pullback, with a strong atmosphere of profit-taking [2] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.71%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 0.74%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.96%, indicating rising risk aversion [2] - The total trading volume in the market was approximately 217.6 billion HKD, with short selling amounting to about 44.5 billion HKD, representing 23.22% of the total trading volume [2] Sector Performance - The film and entertainment sector continues to see outflows, while the pharmaceutical sector is under pressure, particularly in areas like brain-machine interfaces and innovative drugs [3] - Commodity-related sectors are also showing weakness, with gold prices dropping approximately 180 USD from their highs, leading to declines in gold and non-ferrous metal stocks [3] - The electric power and new energy sectors are experiencing a downturn, with expectations for policy catalysts cooling off [3] Individual Stock Highlights - Lithium battery and new energy vehicle sectors are showing resilience, with lithium carbonate futures rising over 5%, driving stocks like Ganfeng Lithium (1772.HK) higher [3] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman predicts a 30% increase in global lithium carbonate demand by 2026, potentially reaching 1.9 million tons, with prices possibly exceeding 150,000 RMB per ton [3] - Consumer-related sectors are performing relatively well, with stocks in baby products, food, and airlines showing gains, indicating a shift of defensive capital towards domestic demand [3] Company Analysis: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) - Tencent's gaming business exceeded expectations, with domestic market revenue reaching 42.8 billion HKD (up 15% YoY) and international market revenue at 20.8 billion HKD (up 43% YoY) [6] - The advertising business generated 36.24 billion HKD, reflecting a 21% YoY increase, driven by AI-enhanced targeting technology [7] - Financial technology and enterprise services recorded a revenue of 58.2 billion HKD in Q3, marking a 10% YoY growth, supported by improved consumer trends and AI-related services [7] Ecosystem and AI Development - Tencent's WeChat and QQ platforms maintain strong user engagement, with WeChat's monthly active users at 1.414 billion (up 2% YoY) and QQ's at 517 million (down 8% YoY) [8] - The company is advancing in AI technology, with its mixed foundation model achieving industry-leading levels in image and 3D generation [8] - The integration of AI in advertising is enhancing marketing ROI, significantly improving efficiency across various sectors [8] Investment Recommendation - Tencent's Q3 2025 performance demonstrates the deep integration of AI across its business lines, showcasing strong growth resilience in gaming, advertising, and enterprise services [9] - The company is projected to maintain growth through AI-driven advertising efficiency, new game launches, and consumer recovery [9] - A target price of 788 HKD is set, corresponding to a 25.7x PE for 2025 and 23.0x for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating [9]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent reported a revenue of 192.9 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.4%, driven primarily by advertising and gaming businesses [1][4] Revenue Growth - The company's network gaming revenue reached 63.6 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, with domestic market revenue increasing by 15% to 42.8 billion yuan and international market revenue growing by 43% to 20.8 billion yuan [2][6] - Marketing services revenue grew to 36.2 billion yuan, a 21% increase year-on-year, benefiting from eCPM price growth and enhanced user engagement [2][6] Profitability - Adjusted operating profit for Q3 2025 was 72.6 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, with a comprehensive gross margin of 56%, up 3 percentage points [1][4] - The gross margins for value-added services, online advertising, and financial technology & enterprise services improved by 4 percentage points each [1][4] Investment in R&D - R&D expenses reached a record high of 22.8 billion yuan, a 28% year-on-year increase, indicating the company's commitment to AI talent and technology [1][4] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure (Capex) for Q3 2025 was 13 billion yuan, down 24% year-on-year, primarily due to chip supply constraints [1][4] Future Outlook - The company maintains a "better than market" rating, with projected adjusted net profits of 262.6 billion yuan, 301.3 billion yuan, and 345.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a slight upward revision [7]

Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 results with revenue of 192.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%, exceeding consensus expectations of 188.8 billion yuan [1] - Gross profit reached 108.8 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, also above the consensus estimate of 106.4 billion yuan [1] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 70.6 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase and a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase, surpassing the consensus forecast of 66 billion yuan [1] Business Segments Summary Online Gaming - Q3 2025 revenue from online gaming was 63.6 billion yuan, exceeding the consensus estimate of 60.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23% [1] - Domestic revenue grew 15% to 42.8 billion yuan, driven by the success of "Delta Operation" launched in September 2024, along with revenue growth from established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [1] - International gaming revenue surged 43% to 20.8 billion yuan, supported by growth from Supercell games and the recent acquisition of a game studio [1] Social Networking - Q3 2025 revenue from social networking was 32.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, slightly below the consensus estimate of 32.8 billion yuan [2] - Growth was primarily driven by increases in music subscription services, video live streaming, and mini-game platform service fees [2] - Tencent Music's online music subscription business performed well, with paid users rising to 125.7 million, a 5.6% year-on-year increase [2] Marketing Services - Q3 2025 revenue from marketing services was 36.2 billion yuan, exceeding the consensus estimate of 35.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21% [2] - Growth was attributed to increased ad exposure, improved user engagement, and AI-driven optimization of ad placements [2] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Q3 2025 revenue from financial technology and enterprise services was 58.2 billion yuan, slightly above the consensus estimate of 58.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [2] - Financial technology revenue saw modest growth driven by commercial payments and consumer loans, while enterprise services benefited from increased demand for AI-related services [2] Operational Performance and Profitability - The company achieved a gross profit of 108.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 23% year-on-year increase, supported by high-margin businesses and improved cost efficiency in cloud services [3] - Gross margin reached 56.4%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 70.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18% [3] AI Developments - The company is actively expanding its AI capabilities across various sectors, including enhancing AI features in WeChat and integrating AI into enterprise WeChat [4] - AI is being utilized in game content creation and marketing strategies for popular titles [4] - The company is also enhancing AI applications in advertising, particularly in product recommendations and ad placement systems [4] Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "strong buy" investment rating, supported by robust core business performance and significant improvements in AI-driven efficiencies across various business lines [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are expected to reach 753.5 billion, 832.5 billion, and 907.7 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 260.2 billion, 293.6 billion, and 325.4 billion yuan respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings reported Q3 2025 revenue of 192.9 billion yuan, a 15% year-on-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 2% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders reached 70.6 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, surpassing consensus expectations by 7% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Gross profit growth rate (22%) outpaced adjusted operating profit growth (18%) and adjusted net profit growth (18%), while revenue growth was at 15% [1] - Revenue from value-added services and advertising exceeded expectations, with significant contributions from overseas gaming [1] - International and domestic game revenues grew by 43% and 15% year-on-year, respectively, with domestic game revenue maintaining a high level at 42.8 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Advertising and AI Integration - Advertising revenue grew by 21% year-on-year, driven by improved loading rates and AI-driven eCPM enhancements [2] - The launch of the intelligent advertising product matrix, Tencent Advertising AIM+, contributed to revenue growth [2] - Financial technology services revenue increased by 10%, supported by growth in commercial payments and consumer loan services [2] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and AI Development - Capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was 13 billion yuan, accounting for 6.7% of revenue, with a total of 59.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing 10.7% of revenue [2] - Market pricing for Tencent's AI capabilities is considered insufficient, with advancements in complex reasoning and image generation models [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 260.2 billion, 300.7 billion, and 337.3 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The target price based on the SOTP valuation method is set at 791 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 23.4% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - Tencent's Q3 2025 revenue reached 192.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%. Operating profit was 63.6 billion yuan, up 19% year-on-year. Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 70.6 billion yuan, an 18% increase year-on-year. Both revenue and adjusted net profit exceeded market expectations [2][4]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue growth was driven by: 1. Strong performance from both new and existing games, with overseas game revenue and growth rates hitting record highs. Domestic game revenue grew 15% to 42.8 billion yuan, while overseas game revenue increased by 43% to 20.8 billion yuan, marking a record-breaking quarter [7]. 2. AI technology enhancements and strong internal demand led to accelerated growth in advertising revenue, which rose 21% year-on-year to 36.2 billion yuan [7]. 3. Recovery in commercial payments and AI-driven growth in cloud service revenue contributed to a 10% year-on-year increase in financial technology and enterprise service revenue, totaling 58.2 billion yuan [7]. R&D and Profitability - Tencent's R&D investment reached a record high, with Q3 R&D spending at 22.8 billion yuan, an increase of 28% year-on-year. The gross margin for Q3 was 56.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3 percentage points [7]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure in Q3 decreased by 24% year-on-year to 13 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 10.7% of revenue for the first three quarters [7].

财通证券（601108）发布研报称，预计腾讯控股(00700)2025-2027年Non-IFRS归母净利润分别增长 17.0%、11.9%、10.3%为2606亿元、2915亿元和3215亿元。当前股价对应2025~2027年PE分别为 21.0X/18.8X/17.0X，维持"增持"评级。 财通证券主要观点如下： 游戏收入636亿元(同比+22.8%，超出机构一致预期5.2%)，本土市场收入428亿元(同比+14.8%，超出机 构一致预期1.3%)，主要得益于《三角洲行动》、《和平精英》及《王者荣耀》等游戏的收入增加;国际 市场收入208亿元(同比+43.4%，超出机构一致预期14.8%)，主要得益于《皇室战争》收入增长、收购的 游戏工作室的收入贡献、以及主机游戏《消逝的光芒：困兽》的销量表现。 广告收入、毛利率超预期，金融科技及企业服务毛利率低于预期 广告收入362.4亿元(同比+20.8%，超出机构一致预期1.8%)，主要得益于主要行业的广告主投放均有所 增长、用户参与度及广告加载率的提高以及AI驱动的广告定向所带动的eCPM增长，毛利率56.7%(超出 机构一致预期0.5pcts);金融科技及企业服 ...