Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebounded in June, indicating cost pressures from tariffs are being passed to consumers, but overall inflation remains moderate [1] - The Eurozone's June inflation rate was reported at 2.0%, up from 1.9% in May, returning to the European Central Bank's (ECB) medium-term target [5] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.59% this week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.07% [1] - The Nasdaq increased by 1.51%, and the Russell 2000 index saw a 0.23% rise [1] - In Europe, the STOXX 600 index decreased by 0.06%, while the DAX 30 index rose by 0.14% [1] Group 3: Cryptocurrency and Commodities - Bitcoin reached a new historical high of $123,000 this week [3] - Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.61%, and WTI crude oil futures dropped by 3.54% due to trade tensions affecting demand [3] - Gold futures closed at $3,355.50 per ounce, down 0.25%, while silver peaked at $39 per ounce before retreating [3] Group 4: Company Earnings and Expectations - Tesla is expected to report Q2 earnings with anticipated revenue between $22 billion and $23 billion, a 12% year-over-year decline [6] - Google is projected to report Q2 revenue between $93.6 billion and $94.2 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase [7] - Analysts have mixed ratings for Tesla and Google, with Tesla facing challenges in its Robotaxi and FSD initiatives, while Google is under scrutiny for its advertising revenue and AI impacts [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. House of Representatives has created significant turbulence in the global cryptocurrency market, marking a pivotal moment for the industry with strict regulations on stablecoins [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The GENIUS Act mandates that all stablecoin issuers must hold reserves in a 1:1 ratio with U.S. dollars or short-term U.S. Treasury securities, requiring monthly public disclosures of their assets [1]. - Non-bank entities wishing to issue stablecoins must obtain a special license, while major banks are granted expedited access to the new market [1][3]. - A critical provision in the act states that stablecoins can only be used for payment settlements and cannot be classified as securities or commodities, aiming to bypass traditional banking systems [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the act's passage, Ethereum surged by 7% to over $3,600, while Bitcoin surpassed $120,000, with other cryptocurrencies like XRP and Dogecoin also experiencing significant gains of over 10% [3]. - However, the market also saw a dramatic fallout, with 160,000 investors liquidated within 24 hours, resulting in $585 million lost, and the largest single liquidation amounting to $23 million [3]. Group 3: Future Projections - U.S. Treasury Secretary predicts that the stablecoin market could grow to $2 trillion by 2028, significantly exceeding the current $250 billion market size, which would compel stablecoin issuers to purchase large amounts of U.S. Treasury securities [3]. - Major tech companies like Apple and PayPal are accelerating their entry into the payment sector, potentially sidelining algorithmic stablecoins that lack transparency [3]. Group 4: Political and Institutional Dynamics - Trump's personal meme coin has reportedly generated $350 million, and his family-associated stablecoin USD1 has seen a 40% increase in circulation following the act's passage [4]. - The Federal Reserve has expressed strong opposition to Trump's plans to allow $9 trillion in 401k funds to flow into the cryptocurrency market, with key Fed officials warning that such policies could lead to inflation [4]. - The SEC and CFTC are engaged in a jurisdictional dispute over the classification of cryptocurrencies as either securities or commodities, which could lead to a redefinition of major cryptocurrencies [6]. Group 5: Institutional Responses - Major banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup are quickly establishing digital asset departments, although skepticism remains regarding the market demand for stablecoins from some banking executives [6]. - Despite doubts, the stock price of Circle (issuer of USDC) has surged by 25% in two weeks, and inquiries from Goldman Sachs clients have tripled, indicating strong interest in digital assets [6].

（美国牛肉价格走势图） 最新数据显示，6月份，美国的牛肉价格创下历史新高。 其中，碎牛肉平均价格为每磅6.12美元，比去年上涨近12%；未加工牛肉牛排的平均价格为每磅11.49美元，较 去年上涨8%。这并不是最近才出现的现象，过去20年来，美国牛肉价格一直在稳步上涨。 有分析指出，美国牛肉行业面临着一系列挑战，其中最根本的原因是牛群数量的减少。此外，美国的贸易政 策，特别是美国总统特朗普任内实施的关税政策，也对牛肉价格产生长期影响。 如果特朗普政府的这些关税长期存在，将迫使美国肉类加工商支付更高的进口成本，这势必会推高最终消费者 支付的价格。美国纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯近日表示，美国的关税政策，或将美国通胀率推高1个 百分点。 美国牛肉价格创新高 牛肉价格的持续上涨，已经成为美国消费者面临的重要挑战。据美联社7月18日报道，根据6月的数据，牛肉价 格已经达到了历史新高。6月份，美国碎牛肉平均价格比去年上涨近12%，未加工牛肉牛排的平均价格上升 8%。 报道指出，牛肉的涨价不仅发生在今年。实际上，由于供给紧张与需求强劲，过去20年来，美国牛肉价格一直 在攀升。因为牛的供应仍然紧张，而牛肉一直很受欢迎。 ...

7月19日，在岸人民币对美元夜盘收盘报7.1758，较上一交易日夜盘收涨51个基点；离岸人民币对美元 报7.1813元，较上一交易日纽约尾盘涨31点。 7月18日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1498，下调37.00点。 近期，人民币中间价不断释放稳定信号。多家外资行交易员和策略师表示，面对8月1日"对等"关税的不 确定性，人民币中间价的逆周期因子已经非常小，但仍存在接近200个点的调节幅度，显示了中国央行 一定的呵护意愿。但即期交易顺应了近期强美元的逻辑，下半年人民币汇率将继续受到美元指数走势的 影响。 年中，重磅发布会接踵而至。7月14日、15日，国务院新闻办举行两场新闻发布会，邀请中国人民银行 副行长邹澜、国家统计局副局长盛来运，分别介绍上半年货币信贷政策执行及金融统计数据情况、上半 年国民经济运行情况。邹澜在会上表示，当前，美元走势仍然有不确定性，但中国国内基本面持续向 好，人民币汇率保持双向浮动、基本稳定具有坚实的基础。【此前报道：】 邹澜提出，各方面对美联储的货币政策变化非常关注，近期美国经济增速有所放缓，但物价水平仍然高 于美联储的目标水平，关税政策进一步增加了美国通胀走势的不确定性，影响美联储降息 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration faces significant domestic challenges, including lawsuits from over 20 states regarding the legality of tariffs imposed, particularly from California [1][3] - Recent polls indicate Trump's approval rating has dropped to 39%, the lowest in 80 years, as the global tariff war begins to negatively impact American consumers and businesses [3][4] - The European Union has prepared a countermeasure list against U.S. tariffs, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [4][6] Group 2 - The Trump administration's decision to cut funding for disaster relief projects has led to public outrage, especially following severe flooding in Texas that resulted in significant casualties [6][10] - Protests across the U.S. have emerged in response to the administration's immigration policies and cuts to healthcare and welfare programs, highlighting growing public dissent [8][10] - Internal divisions within the Republican Party are exacerbated by proposed cuts to healthcare and clean energy subsidies, providing an opportunity for the Democratic Party to leverage these issues politically [10]

Core Insights - U.S. beef prices have reached an all-time high, with ground beef prices rising nearly 12% and unprocessed beef steak prices increasing by 8% compared to last year [1][3] - The U.S. cattle herd is at a historic low, with only 86.7 million cattle and calves as of January 1, marking the lowest level since 1951 [3] - The U.S. imports over 4 million pounds of beef annually, with potential tariff policies under the Trump administration likely to further drive up beef prices [3][4] Beef Industry Dynamics - The steady increase in beef prices over the past 20 years contrasts with the declining cattle herd, which has been decreasing for decades [3] - The U.S. imports lean beef trimmings primarily from Australia and New Zealand, with some imports from Brazil, which faces potential tariffs of up to 50% [3] - U.S. meat processing companies may face higher costs for imported lean beef if tariffs remain in place, complicating domestic alternatives due to a focus on producing fatty beef [3][4] Brazil's Response - Brazil's cattle ranching association emphasizes that the U.S. cattle supply cannot meet domestic consumption needs, making Brazilian beef essential for the U.S. market [4] - Brazil is actively seeking to diversify its export markets in response to U.S. tariff pressures, aiming to expand trade with other global southern countries [4] Broader Economic Implications - Tariffs on Brazilian goods, including beef, coffee, and juice, could significantly increase living costs for U.S. consumers, as a substantial portion of these products is imported from Brazil [6] - The rising prices of essential goods, including eggs and beef, are exacerbated by tariff policies, which may also affect the prices of tomatoes and other produce [6] - The U.S. relies heavily on imports for fresh fruits and vegetables, with 60% of fresh fruit and 40% of fresh vegetables being imported, making domestic production insufficient [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump has announced an increase in tariffs on Japan to 25% starting August 1, which is expected to negatively impact Japan's economy, particularly its automotive industry [1] Economic Impact - Japan's exports to the U.S. decreased by 11.4% year-on-year in June [1] - The automotive sector experienced a significant decline, with exports falling by 26.7% year-on-year due to U.S. tariff measures [1] - Economic experts predict that the U.S. tariff policy will be a major factor contributing to Japan's economic downturn, potentially leading to negative quarterly growth and a yearly GDP growth rate close to zero [1]

Group 1 - Canada has implemented a series of tariffs on Chinese products, including a 100% tariff on electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, starting from October 1, 2024 [3][5] - The economic relationship between Canada and the US is significant, with Canada exporting over $400 billion worth of goods to the US annually, leading Canada to seek economic protection through closer ties with the US [3][5] - Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau is facing pressure as the trade relationship with the US deteriorates, with reports indicating that he is exploring other international markets to mitigate the impact of US tariffs [5][6] Group 2 - The Canadian media is speculating about improving relations with China, while Trudeau is cautious due to strong pro-US sentiments within Canada [6][9] - China's response to Canada's tariffs has included imposing 100% tariffs on Canadian canola oil and 25% tariffs on Canadian seafood and pork, indicating a retaliatory stance [6][8] - Australia is poised to take over Canada's canola market, with potential agreements allowing Australian suppliers to export significant quantities of canola to China, further isolating Canada [8][9] Group 3 - Trudeau's tariff policies are seen as ineffective in protecting Canadian industries, as retaliatory measures from China could deepen Canada's economic troubles [9] - The relationship dynamics suggest that Canada must reassess its approach towards China, as continued alignment with US policies may lead to further economic challenges [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the weakening US dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and mixed economic signals from the US, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Factors Impacting Gold Prices - Gold prices have recently increased by 0.4% to $3353.25 per ounce due to a softening dollar and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1]. - Positive US real estate data, including building permits and new housing starts, has reduced recession fears, providing some support for the dollar and exerting pressure on gold [2]. - Discrepancies in Federal Reserve officials' views on monetary policy have created market volatility, with some advocating for immediate rate cuts while others suggest maintaining high rates [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation and Market Sentiment - The US June CPI data indicates signs of rising inflation, which may delay the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, impacting gold's attractiveness [3]. - The interplay of Federal Reserve policies, US economic data, and tariff uncertainties is creating a complex environment for gold prices, with potential inflation pressures enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies - Technical analysis shows gold is currently in a consolidation phase, with key resistance levels around $3375 and support levels at $3340-$3345 [4][6]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on boundary breakouts, with potential upward movement towards $3380 if support levels hold [4][6]. - Specific trading strategies include selling on rebounds near $3373-$3375 and buying on dips around $3340-$3345, with defined stop-loss levels to manage risk [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's tariff policies have significantly impacted the global economy, affecting over 150 countries, and have created a sense of "awe" towards certain economies [1] Group 1: Trade Relationships - Canada, Mexico, and China are the top trading partners with the U.S., while the EU, Japan, South Korea, and India maintain close trading ties [2] - Surprisingly, the countries that have made Trump feel uneasy do not include Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, or the EU [2] Group 2: United Kingdom - The UK, despite its smaller trade scale compared to the EU and others, has become a significant independent trading partner post-Brexit [3] - The UK was the first major economy to reach a trade agreement with the U.S., enjoying a low tariff rate of 10%, the lowest among all agreements [3] - This indicates a special trust and relationship between Trump and the UK, contrasting with his views on other nations [3] Group 3: China - Trump's approach to China has been cautious, marked by the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" without prior warning [5] - China responded with its own tariffs, reaching as high as 125%, leading to negotiations between the two nations [5] - China's ability to impose tariffs and utilize non-tariff measures, such as rare earth elements, showcases its economic strength and confidence [5] Group 4: India - India's name appears unexpectedly in the context of Trump's trade actions, as the U.S. has not proposed any trade agreements with India despite its rising influence [7] - Unlike other Southeast Asian countries that have reached agreements under pressure, India remains a unique case where the U.S. has been indecisive [7] Group 5: Geopolitical Strategy - The unique positions of the UK, China, and India have compelled Trump to show a degree of respect in tariff negotiations, unlike other economies [9] - The future trade relations between these three countries and the U.S. will be crucial to monitor as global trade dynamics evolve [9]