Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is described as an independent institution, with the President having the right to express opinions [1]

Group 1 - Economist Marc Sumerlin expressed interest in becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair and believes aggressive rate cuts are appropriate at this time [1][2] - Sumerlin stated that a reduction of 50 basis points in the key interest rate is a straightforward decision given the current yield structure, weak labor market, and stable inflation [1] - The range of candidates to succeed current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is broad, with Sumerlin's stance on interest rates aligning with President Trump's push for monetary easing [1] Group 2 - Sumerlin confirmed that he was contacted by the White House last week and mentioned his close relationship with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is playing a key role in selecting the next chair [2] - He emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, especially in light of President Trump's unprecedented public criticism of Powell and the FOMC [2] - Other candidates for the position include current board member Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former board member Kevin Warsh, and about six other candidates [2]

在"让美国再次伟大"（MAGA）的阵营中，上周被特朗普提名进入美联储高层的白宫经济学家斯蒂芬· 米兰（Stephen Miran）是个不可小觑的人物。 米兰一直是支持特朗普全面经济议程的核心声音，后者称赞他"杰出"且"无人能及"。但获得美联储提名 所需的特质，与在该央行内部取得成功所需的特质并不相同。 米兰被提名接替库格勒——她在任期还剩6个月时从美联储辞职。这意味着，若获参议院确认，米兰在 美联储理事会的任期仅至2026年1月31日。他非主流的经济观点将在参议院银行委员会的确认听证会上 充分展现——这些观点将使他与委员会其他成员格格不入。 与包括美联储内部人士在内的多数主流经济学家不同，米兰认为，特朗普对美国贸易伙伴广泛加征的关 税不会引发通胀。这一观点意味着，美联储本应在今年早些时候就已降息，正如特朗普数月来一直大声 呼吁的那样。 就在周二，他还在强化这一立场。 "仍完全没有任何证据显示存在关税引发的通胀，"米兰告诉CNBC，"我认为，许多预期会出现这种情 况、预测前景黯淡的人，他们的判断从未兑现，而且还会继续落空。" 米兰去年还与人合著一篇论文，主张反对美联储独立性，不过他在近期言论中语气有所转变。目前 ...

Group 1 - London silver is currently trading above $38.20, with a recent price of $38.32, reflecting a 1.10% increase from the opening price of $37.88 [1] - The highest price reached today was $38.35, while the lowest was $37.83, indicating a bullish short-term trend for London silver [1] Group 2 - President Trump suggested that interest rates should be lowered by at least 3%, bringing them to a range of 1.25% to 1.50% [3] - Analysts warn that the ongoing political tension between Trump and the Federal Reserve could undermine investor confidence, potentially leading to a surge in silver prices [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership is contributing to increased market volatility, with concerns about the independence of the Fed worsening the situation [3] Group 3 - Swissquote's senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya emphasized that attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence could have severe consequences, including a potential collapse of the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [4] - Ozkardeskaya highlighted that the Fed's credibility is crucial for its ability to support financial markets through bond purchases, and losing this credibility would severely impact the dollar and U.S. debt [4] - Investors are advised to closely monitor safe-haven assets, as significant actions from the Federal Reserve may be anticipated in the fall [4] Group 4 - London silver has shown a slight rebound, stabilizing near the 10-day moving average, with the RSI indicator trending upwards [6] - The support level for silver is around $37.50, with potential upward movement towards $38.40-$38.50 if it stabilizes above the $38 mark [6] - Key support levels to watch are $37.65 and $37.35, while resistance levels are at $38.05 and $38.30 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the conflicting signals from recent economic data, particularly the July CPI, which has led to a decrease in market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, subsequently impacting the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [1][2][4] - The July CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%, marginally exceeding the market expectation of 3.0%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1][2] - The market's reaction to the potential interest rate cut has been mixed, with the dollar index dropping by 0.5% to 97.85, typically favorable for gold, yet gold prices have shown weakness, with the Shanghai gold futures contract down 0.08% to 776.46 CNY per gram and spot gold down 0.07% to 3345.210 USD per ounce [2][4] Group 2 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, particularly with the nomination of Milan as a potential board member, which could raise concerns about the politicization of monetary policy if he advocates for more accommodative measures [3] - The relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve appears strained, as evidenced by the pressure exerted on Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters, which may undermine market confidence in the Fed's credibility [3] - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in gold prices is influenced by three main factors: a reduction in the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut from 70% to 55%, a rebound in tech stocks attracting investment away from gold, and technical resistance around the 3350 USD per ounce level prompting profit-taking by some investors [4] Group 3 - The outlook for gold remains uncertain in the short term, with expectations of continued volatility, particularly in light of upcoming non-farm payroll data and statements from Federal Reserve officials [5] - If economic slowdown risks are confirmed by future data, renewed expectations for rate cuts could support a rebound in gold prices; conversely, if inflation remains sticky, gold may face further adjustments [5] - Long-term factors such as global geopolitical risks, trends towards de-dollarization, and central bank gold purchases are expected to provide a supportive floor for gold prices, suggesting structural investment opportunities [5]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 "仍然完全没有任何由关税引发的通胀的证据，"白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰说。"很多曾预期……前 景黯淡的人，他们的预测就是没有成为现实，并且继续没有成为现实。" 音频由扣子空间生成 前圣路易斯联储主席布拉德周二表示，他上周已就白宫物色新任美联储主席一事与美国财政部长贝森特 进行了交谈，并告诉贝森特他"乐于以他们希望的任何方式推进。" 美国总统特朗普是美联储主席鲍威尔的坦率批评者，后者的任期将持续到明年5月中旬。特朗普希望挑 选一位同意美联储应该降息观点的继任者。 贝森特正在建立一份候选人名单，其中还包括国家经济委员会主任哈塞特、前美联储理事沃什、现任美 联储理事沃勒，以及前总统小布什的经济顾问马克·萨默林。 布拉德表达了自己对降低利率的支持，他在接受采访时表示，关税不会导致通胀，但似乎确实在今年减 缓了经济，并预测美联储将接受这一观点。 他还表示，他不会对货币政策"教条化"，并指出在2022年和2023年通胀急剧上升时，他也是主张大幅提 高利率的人之一。 布拉德表示，"如果我们能为成功做好准备，我就会接受这份工作：如果我们能保护美元的价值……那 将随着时间的推移给我们带来更 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the concerns regarding the Treasury Secretary's comments on the selection criteria for the next Federal Reserve Chair, suggesting a potential challenge to the Fed's independence [1] - The article discusses the need for the new Fed Chair to redefine the Fed's functions, indicating that its current mission has expanded beyond monetary policy to include broader economic responsibilities [1] - The emphasis on "forward-looking thinking" by the Treasury Secretary raises questions about the balance between relying on historical data and anticipating future economic changes, which could lead to decision-making risks [1] Group 2 - The article reflects the U.S. government's expectations and pressures on the Federal Reserve to adapt its strategies in a rapidly changing global economic landscape [1] - It raises concerns about the potential blurring of the Fed's focus on monetary policy if it takes on too many economic functions, which could expose it to political pressures [1] - The discussion points to the challenge of balancing independence and flexibility for the Federal Reserve in addressing complex economic issues in the future [1]

圣路易斯联储前总裁布拉德表示，（关于接任美联储主席职位的可能性）上周与贝森特进行了交谈。如 果美联储的目标是稳定的较低通胀率，且美联储独立性得到尊重，愿意接受美联储主席一职。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the gold market are attributed to a combination of geopolitical tensions, trade tariff developments, and monetary policy discussions, highlighting gold's multifaceted nature as a commodity, financial asset, and currency [5]. Commodity Attributes - The impact of tariffs on gold prices has become more pronounced, particularly due to the U.S. imposing a new "reciprocal tariff" of 39% on Swiss gold bars, which led to a temporary halt in gold shipments from Swiss refineries to the U.S. [7] - A subsequent reversal occurred when the White House announced an exemption for imported gold bars from tariffs, causing a significant drop in the New York-London gold premium, although it remained above normal levels, indicating ongoing market uncertainty [7]. Financial Attributes - The market has experienced fluctuating sentiments regarding U.S.-Russia relations, with optimism about potential talks being tempered by President Trump's comments, reflecting the complexities of geopolitical dynamics and their influence on risk sentiment [9]. - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and central bank gold purchases are contributing to a shift away from globalization, with the likelihood of immediate peace agreements being low due to competing interests among major powers [9]. Monetary Attributes - The independence of the Federal Reserve is not expected to be a major market driver in the short term, as current Chairman Powell's term is nearing its end, and the selection of a new chair will take time [11]. - A potential risk lies in the upcoming FOMC meeting, where a rate cut could lead to the reintroduction of interest-bearing Treasury issuance, possibly pushing 10-year U.S. Treasury yields towards 5%, which would exert downward pressure on gold prices [11]. Market Outlook - Despite short-term expectations of geopolitical easing and tariff exemptions boosting risk sentiment, the trends of de-globalization and weakening dollar credibility persist, making the gold-silver ratio at 85-90 more attractive for long positions compared to high-priced gold [13].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the meeting on July 30, 2025, despite increasing pressure for a rate cut [2][3] - The shift towards a dovish stance among Federal Reserve officials has become more pronounced, with predictions of potential rate cuts in September [2][3][4] - The disappointing non-farm payroll data for July, which showed only 73,000 new jobs added compared to the expected 115,000, has raised concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy [3][4] Group 2 - President Trump has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve, including the dismissal of the Labor Department's statistics chief, which has contributed to market uncertainty regarding economic prospects [4][5] - The appointment of Stephen Milan, a close Trump ally, to the Federal Reserve Board is expected to influence the Fed's decision-making process, potentially increasing the likelihood of rate cuts [6][7] - The anticipated rate cuts may benefit traditional industries with high debt levels, such as real estate, but the overall impact remains uncertain due to conflicting economic policies [8][9]