美联储新主席上任后，内部分歧大概率延续，加剧金融市场波动。 12月10日（均指当地时间，下同），美联储如期宣布连续三次降息，并启动技术性扩表，美联储内部关 于降息的分歧程度也创下多年来新高，预示明年美联储进一步降息的门槛提高，降息步伐趋于放缓。至 今美联储新主席人选尚未尘埃落定。美联储新主席上任后，或面临更加难以协调的委员会，内部分歧大 概率延续，加剧金融市场波动。 美联储进一步降息门槛提高 受就业下行风险加剧影响，继去年9月、11月和12月连续三次降息、此后连续五次暂停降息之后，美联 储在今年9月、10月和12月各降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率的目标区间降至3.50%~3.75%。12月会议 声明对失业率的表述从10月会议声明的"失业率小幅上升但到8月仍维持在低位"改为"失业率截至9月有 所上升"，删除了"仍维持在低位"的表述。相较于10月份，12月会议声明的另一大变化是，关于未来联 邦基金利率目标范围的调整，增加了"幅度"和"时机"的表述，与去年12月会议声明变化如出一辙，完整 表述均由上次会议的"在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间进行额外调整时"改为"在考虑对联邦基金利率目 标区间进行额外调整的幅度和时机时" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the changing dynamics in the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair, with Kevin Walsh emerging as the leading candidate over Kevin Hassett, amidst discussions on the Fed's independence and future policy direction [1][2][3]. - The candidate pool for the new Fed Chair has been narrowed from 11 to 5, including Hassett, Walsh, current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, and BlackRock executive Rick Reed, with a final decision expected in early January [2]. - Trump's preference for Walsh, who supports significant interest rate cuts, has shifted market expectations, with Walsh's nomination probability rising to approximately 47% while Hassett's has dropped to around 41% [3]. Group 2 - Walsh is characterized as a "hawkish reformer," advocating for a return to the Fed's core mission of price stability and a significant reduction of its balance sheet, arguing that current inflation is a result of past monetary policy mismanagement [4]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with Trump expressing a desire for the next Chair to consult him on interest rate decisions, raising concerns about the potential political influence on monetary policy [5]. - The Fed's recent announcement of a $40 billion monthly bond purchase plan has led to revised debt issuance forecasts, indicating a commitment to support Treasury financing, which may further blur the lines between monetary and fiscal policy [6]. Group 3 - Recent inflation data has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in the coming year, with the CPI showing a lower-than-expected increase, suggesting a potential easing of monetary policy [7]. - Waller, a current Fed policymaker, has indicated that there is still room for rate cuts, emphasizing a gradual approach to policy adjustments while acknowledging the current economic landscape [8]. - Market sentiment is leaning towards a dovish outlook for the Fed's future actions, with analysts predicting potential rate cuts in 2026, reflecting ongoing concerns about the labor market and inflation dynamics [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing power struggle between President Trump and the Federal Reserve, highlighting Trump's attempts to influence monetary policy through personnel changes and direct challenges to the Fed's independence [1][4][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The Federal Reserve has been designed as an independent institution since its establishment in 1913, with a 14-year term for governors to prevent direct presidential interference in monetary policy [1]. - Trump's actions, including the nomination of Stephen Milan and the attempt to remove Lisa Cook, challenge the long-standing tradition of presidential non-interference in the Fed's operations [4][10]. Group 2: Personnel Changes and Policy Impact - Trump nominated Stephen Milan, who supports low interest rates, to fill a vacancy on the Fed's board, leading to a rate cut of 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00% in response to slowing job growth [3]. - Despite Trump's efforts, Lisa Cook remained on the board after a court ruling, indicating that the Fed's operations were not significantly impacted by these personnel changes [6][11]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Following the Fed's interest rate cuts, borrowing costs in the U.S. decreased, stimulating consumer spending but raising concerns about potential inflation [8]. - The Fed's policy adjustments, including further rate cuts to 3.50%-3.75%, have influenced global capital flows, benefiting emerging markets like China [6][8]. Group 4: Legal and Constitutional Context - Trump's attempts to remove Cook were met with legal challenges, emphasizing the limitations of presidential power over the Fed as established by the Federal Reserve Reform Act of 1977 [10]. - The ongoing legal battle over Cook's position serves as a case study in the constraints of presidential authority regarding the Fed's governance [10].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's recent comments on the next Federal Reserve chair emphasize the need for a supporter of "significant interest rate cuts," raising concerns about potential interference with the Fed's independence [1][3]. Group 1: Trump's Position on Interest Rates - Trump has stated that he will soon announce the next Fed chair, who he believes should support substantial interest rate reductions, with a target of lowering rates to 1%, compared to the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% [3]. - He has expressed a preference for candidates like Kevin Walsh and Kevin Hassett, both of whom advocate for lower rates, although none have committed to the drastic cuts Trump desires [3][4]. Group 2: Concerns Over Fed Independence - Trump's request for consultation on interest rate decisions breaks the tradition of presidential non-interference in Fed policy, suggesting he believes his views should be considered in monetary policy [3][4]. - Hassett, if appointed, indicated he would consider the president's opinions but emphasized that the Fed's rate decisions would remain independent, allowing policymakers to reject presidential input [4]. - The impact of Fed-controlled rates on long-term borrowing costs, such as mortgage rates, is limited, as these are more influenced by long-term Treasury yields, which are driven by investor expectations of economic growth and inflation [4].

Group 1 - China has sold $11.8 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, reducing its holdings to $688.7 billion, the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis [1][3] - Canada has also significantly reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by $56.7 billion, reflecting a dramatic shift in its investment strategy [1][3] - The actions of both China and Canada indicate a strategic retreat from U.S. debt, driven by concerns over the stability of the U.S. economy and its financial practices [3][7] Group 2 - Japan and the UK have taken the opposite approach, with Japan increasing its holdings by $10.7 billion and the UK by $13.2 billion, indicating a different strategy in response to geopolitical dynamics [4] - The divergence in strategies among countries highlights that U.S. Treasury bonds are not just investment vehicles but also tools in international political negotiations [4] Group 3 - Trump's push for a new Federal Reserve chair who supports significant interest rate cuts reflects concerns over the U.S. national debt, which has surpassed $37 trillion [6][7] - The U.S. government's debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 126%, with projected deficits indicating a growing fiscal challenge [7] - The shift in global reserve assets shows a decline in the dollar's dominance, with the percentage of U.S. dollar reserves falling from 72% in 2000 to 57% in recent years, while gold's share has increased to 20% [7][9] Group 4 - China's reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings is part of a broader strategy to enhance its financial autonomy, as evidenced by a significant increase in gold reserves and the expansion of its digital currency initiatives [9] - The ongoing adjustments in foreign exchange reserves and asset allocations reflect a global shift in financial strategies, with countries reassessing their reliance on U.S. assets [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around President Trump's upcoming nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, emphasizing the need for a candidate who supports significant interest rate cuts [1] - Trump has interviewed Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and identified former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh as the top candidate for the position, with White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett also being considered [1] - Trump plans to announce the nominee in early 2026 to succeed current Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, and has expressed a desire for the new chairman to consult him on interest rate policies, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Public sentiment regarding inflation and living costs remains a significant concern, with 64% of Americans believing the country is on the wrong track, impacting their daily spending decisions [2] - Nearly half of respondents in a recent poll indicated that the current cost of living is the worst they have ever experienced, highlighting economic issues as a major concern for voters [3] - Economic issues have emerged as one of the most detrimental topics for Trump, as dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy is evident among the public [3]

Group 1 - The core intention behind Trump's eagerness to replace the Federal Reserve Chairman is to advocate for significant interest rate cuts to alleviate economic and debt pressures in the U.S. [3] - Trump aims to lower the federal funds rate to 1% to reduce government borrowing costs and stimulate consumption and investment, countering the negative impacts of his tariff policies [3][5] - The replacement of the Federal Reserve Chairman is also a political strategy for Trump to secure voter support in key electoral regions, particularly the Rust Belt, by shifting blame for any economic downturn onto the current Chairman, Powell [5] Group 2 - Trump's move to replace the Federal Reserve Chairman challenges the independence of the Fed, as he seeks to appoint someone aligned with his views to ensure monetary policy supports his administration's decisions [7] - By signaling a continuation of low interest rate policies, Trump aims to reassure markets and prepare them for future monetary policy adjustments, while simultaneously undermining Powell's authority [9] - Biden's emphasis on maintaining U.S. global leadership and his remarks about China serve as a counter to Trump's strategic retreat, highlighting the potential risks of allowing China to expand its influence [9]

Group 1 - The next Federal Reserve Chair is likely to be chosen between two candidates named Kevin, Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, as President Trump seeks someone who can effectively lower borrowing costs [1] - Trump's previous choice of Jerome Powell as Fed Chair has led to regrets, as he aims to select a more controllable candidate who will heed his advice [1] - The selection process has become more complicated with Trump's announcement to delay the final decision, increasing uncertainty around the candidates [2] Group 2 - Hassett faces scrutiny over his close relationship with Trump, raising concerns about the potential negative perception of his independence as Fed Chair [3] - Warsh has gained support from influential figures like Jamie Dimon, but he must also address his own challenges to secure the position [3][4] - The new Fed Chair will likely encounter internal resistance from the Federal Reserve's policy-making committee, which may complicate the implementation of aggressive rate cuts [5] Group 3 - The Fed's decision-making has shown significant divisions, and the new Chair may find it difficult to communicate clear policy directions [5] - The upcoming legal case regarding Trump's ability to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook could have profound implications for the Fed's operational independence [6] - The new Chair will face heightened expectations to remain calm and make decisions beneficial to the economy, rather than simply appeasing the President [7]

美联储在上周降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至3.5%-3.75%，且鲍威尔在利率决议公布后的新闻发 布会上释放了偏鸽派的信号。不过，特朗普吐槽降息幅度"过小"，称"美国的利率就该是全球最低的"。 特朗普此前曾声称，美国利率应为"1%，甚至可能更低"。 自今年1月就任以来，特朗普多次指责美联储降息过慢，并公开批评鲍威尔，称其为"蠢货"和"总是太 迟"，且威胁解除美联储主席鲍威尔的职务。与此同时，特朗普正通过多种手段寻求在其第二个任期内 加强对美联储的控制，以配合其激进降息的愿景——成功让其高级顾问米兰担任美联储理事、并试图解 雇美联储理事库克，而最关键的手段莫过于选择一位支持其降息立场的人选接任明年5月结束美联储主 席任期的鲍威尔。 在特朗普于上月底宣布已决定下一任美联储主席人选时，白宫国家经济委员会主任、特朗普的首席经济 顾问凯文·哈塞特被视为最有可能成为下一任美联储主席的人选。但近期，美联储前理事凯文·沃什和美 联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒重新进入了投资者的视野。特朗普在12月12日接受采访时表示，沃什是下一 任美联储主席职位的头号候选人，哈塞特也很出色，不过最终人选仍未敲定。此外，特朗普在12月17日 面 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights President Trump's upcoming announcement regarding the nomination of the next Federal Reserve Chairman, emphasizing the need for the nominee to support significant interest rate cuts [1] - Trump is currently evaluating candidates, having interviewed Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, and previously identified Kevin Walsh as the top candidate [1] - Concerns have been raised about the independence of the Federal Reserve due to Trump's pressure on current Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates [1] Group 2 - Public sentiment regarding the economy is negative, with 64% of Americans believing the country is on the wrong track, particularly influenced by inflation and living costs [2] - Nearly half of respondents in a recent poll indicated that the current cost of living is the worst they can remember, contrasting sharply with Trump's optimistic portrayal of the economy [3] - Economic issues have emerged as a significant concern for voters, posing a challenge for Trump as he navigates public perception of his economic policies [3]