Core Insights - The company is actively preparing for the mid-year sales event in the U.S. and exploring the Mexican market for expansion opportunities [1] - The company primarily engages in the trade of consumer electronics, connecting U.S. retailers with Chinese manufacturers [1] - The company has been closely monitoring changes in tariffs and shipping costs, making strategic decisions based on these factors [1][2] Shipping Costs - As of June 13, shipping rates from Shanghai to the U.S. West and East Coast ports were $4,120/FEU and $6,745/FEU, reflecting decreases of 26.5% and 2.8% respectively [2] - The company anticipates shipping costs may drop below $3,000/FEU, but if they rise to $6,000, profit margins could be significantly impacted [2] Tariff Outlook - The company predicts that after the 90-day "window period," tariffs may stabilize around 40%-50%, potentially erasing profits if retail prices remain unchanged [2] - The company is cautious about the foreign trade environment and believes that ongoing policy changes require careful observation [2] Business Strategy - The company has decided to maintain current operations and not expand investments until the market situation stabilizes [4] - The company has a seven-month inventory turnover and plans to deplete this stock before making further production decisions based on policy changes [4] - If tariffs exceed expectations, the company may consider exiting the U.S. market, which is currently its largest, while the European market is significantly smaller [4] Market Conditions - The company has incurred losses due to increased costs from air freight, which added $200,000 to expenses [3] - The company is exploring e-commerce in Mexico with an initial investment of 100,000 yuan to test market viability [2][4] - Concerns about the stability of the Mexican market remain a significant consideration for the company's expansion plans [2]

Group 1 - Japan is prepared for potential delays in trade negotiations with the U.S. and will not focus on a specific deadline for restoring tariffs [1][2] - Japanese Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa emphasized that Japan is engaging in sincere negotiations and is optimistic about the possibility of extending the deadline for tariff increases [1][2] - The U.S. plans to restore tariffs on multiple countries, which would raise Japan's tariffs from the current 10% to 24% [1] Group 2 - Akazawa has not scheduled the next round of negotiations with the U.S. and stated that Japan will not set specific deadlines for dialogue, likening trade discussions to "navigating in the fog" [2] - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East may divert U.S. attention, potentially hindering substantial progress in U.S.-Japan trade talks [2] - Protecting the automotive industry profits is a core demand for Japan in the negotiations, highlighting the significance of the U.S.-Japan automotive trade surplus as a key issue [3]

日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正表示，他不会对与美国的双边贸易谈判设定具体时间表。美国总统特朗 普的"对等关税"将于7月9日对许多国家恢复到原来水平；对日本而言，意味着关税税率将从目前的10% 升至24%。 ...

今日周五（6月20日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于36.28一线下方，今日开盘于36.41美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报36.33美元/盎司，下跌0.31%，最高触及36.41元/盎司，最低下探36.28美元/盎司，目前 来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 另一方面，如果白银/美元的每日收盘价高于36.50美元，则以下关键阻力位将是37.00美元和年初至今的 高点37.32美元。 鉴于谈判的敏感性，欧洲消息人士透露，欧盟谈判团队仍在努力争取将税率降至10%以下。然而，其中 一位身为欧盟官员的消息人士指出，随着美国开始从其全球关税政策中获益，降低税率的谈判难度显著 增加。 此轮关税调整对欧洲汽车制造商造成了重创。梅赛德斯奔驰已撤回其盈利预测，斯特兰蒂斯暂停了相关 指引，而沃尔沃汽车则撤回了未来两年的盈利展望。一位欧洲汽车业高管坦言，高端汽车制造商或许能 承受10%的关税负担，但对于面向大众市场的生产商而言，这一税率则构成了更大的挑战。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 白银价格在周三触及多年高点37.32美元后回落至当前水平，但仍偏向上行。灰色金属触及36.21美元附 近的低点;从那时起，它已经恢复，但交 ...

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - European officials are increasingly inclined to accept a 10% "reciprocal" tariff rate as a baseline for any trade agreement with the U.S. [1] - U.S. Commerce Secretary has ruled out the possibility of lowering the baseline tariff rate below 10%, which covers most goods exported from the EU to the U.S. [1] - EU negotiators are still striving to reduce the tariff rate below 10%, but the difficulty has increased since the U.S. began generating revenue from its global tariffs [1][2] Group 2: Impact on Companies - European automakers have been significantly impacted, with companies like Mercedes and Stellantis withdrawing their profit guidance due to the uncertainty caused by tariffs [4] - High-end car manufacturers can manage a 10% tariff, but it poses challenges for mass-market producers [4] - The inability to reach an agreement on tariffs could have a substantial negative impact on the market, as stated by industry executives [5] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The U.S. budget surplus in April was $258 billion, a 23% increase year-over-year, with net tariff revenue more than doubling compared to the previous year [3] - The U.S. is attempting to include non-tariff barriers such as digital services tax and corporate sustainability reporting rules in the negotiations [3] - The pharmaceutical industry is resisting industry-specific tariffs, although accepting a 10% baseline tariff could provide leverage in negotiations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is advancing a new round of tariffs, which may have a broader impact on imports compared to previous measures, particularly targeting industries deemed crucial for national security, such as chips, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to announce results of investigations into several industries, potentially leading to tariffs on foreign products in these sectors [1]. - Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs, currently at 50%, have affected nearly $200 billion worth of products, significantly increasing the scope compared to his first term [1]. - The latest measures under Section 232 include expanding tariffs to household appliances like dishwashers and washing machines, which are considered vital for national security [2]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations Impact - The ongoing Section 232 investigations inject uncertainty into U.S. trade negotiations with other countries, as nations are cautious about signing agreements while these investigations are pending [6]. - Countries are concerned about how the Section 232 tariffs may interact with existing country-specific tariffs, leading to potential complications in trade agreements [7]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The broadening of Section 232 tariffs could lead to significant inflationary pressures, particularly affecting consumer goods made from imported materials [7]. - The Producer Price Index for steel cans and tin products has already risen by 8.7% this year, indicating potential inflationary effects from the expanded tariffs [7].

消息人士：在与美国的谈判中，欧盟越来越屈从于10%的基础关税 金十数据6月19日讯，熟悉谈判的五位消息人士称，欧洲官员越来越接受将10%的"对等"关税作为美国 和欧盟之间任何贸易协议的基准。此前，美国总统特朗普宣布对贸易伙伴实施广泛关税，美国商务部长 卢特尼克已排除将对欧盟大多数出口美国商品征收的"对等关税"低于10%的可能。消息人士称，欧盟谈 判代表仍在敦促将税率降至10%以下。但其中一位消息人士表示，自从美国开始从其全球关税中获取收 入以来，降低关税水平的谈判变得更加困难。他表示："10%是个棘手的问题。我们正在向他们施压， 但现在他们正在获得收入。"另一位欧洲消息人士表示，欧盟在谈判中没有接受10%作为基准税率，但 承认很难改变或废除这一基准。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic antimony price has experienced a significant increase, with the average price of antimony concentrate reaching 172,800 yuan per ton by the end of May 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 113.3% [2][6]. Price Trends - Antimony prices have been on a rapid upward trend since mid-February 2025, with continuous increases in March and sustained high levels in May [2]. - As of the end of May, the average price of antimony ingots was 194,500 yuan per ton, up 100.7% year-on-year, with a peak price of 240,000 yuan per ton [7]. - The average price of antimony oxide reached 174,800 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 103.6% [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The antimony market has been characterized by tight supply since early 2025, with a notable rebound in prices from mid-February to mid-April [6][12]. - Exports of antimony products have significantly declined, with no exports of antimony ore and a 59.3% decrease in antimony oxide exports from January to April [13]. - Imports of antimony concentrate also fell by 28.26% during the same period, indicating a tightening supply situation domestically [15]. Future Outlook - The domestic antimony market is expected to continue experiencing high prices due to ongoing supply constraints and reduced imports [16][18]. - The demand for antimony is supported by growth in key downstream applications, particularly in synthetic rubber, solar cells, and electric vehicles, which have all seen double-digit growth [16]. - The overall economic environment, including the impact of protectionist trade policies, is anticipated to influence the antimony market, but China's manufacturing sector has shown resilience with a recovery in the PMI [19].

Group 1: Overseas Macro Insights - Developed countries show relative resilience under tariff shocks, with May manufacturing PMI for developed nations rising to 50.0%, up 0.9 percentage points from April[6] - Emerging economies' manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.2%, down 1.3 percentage points from April, indicating higher reliance on global trade[6] - U.S. inflation remained stable in May, with CPI increasing by 2.4% year-on-year, a slight rise of 0.1 percentage points from April[8] Group 2: Domestic Macro Insights - China's retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, driven by early e-commerce promotions and trade-in policies[2] - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.9% year-on-year in May, down 0.7 percentage points from April, with manufacturing investment declining for two consecutive months[16] - Exports to the U.S. fell sharply by 34.5% year-on-year in May, significantly impacting overall export performance[19] Group 3: Policy and Trade Negotiations - U.S.-China tariff negotiations saw a temporary breakthrough, with a joint statement on May 13 maintaining tariffs at 10% and suspending 24% tariffs for 90 days[3] - The ongoing trade talks are expected to face high uncertainty, with potential delays in reaching a final agreement exceeding 90 days[23] Group 4: Economic Risks and Outlook - Deflationary pressures persist, with May CPI down 0.1% and PPI down 3.3%, indicating significant deflation risks[20] - The overall economic data for May shows resilience, but concerns remain regarding the sustainability of consumption and export growth[20]

日本比上月增持0.3%，为1万1345亿美元，持有量继续居首。外国投资者对美国国债的总持 有量为9万134亿美元，比上月减少0.4%。 受特朗普宣布对等关税的影响，4月上旬美国的利率一度出现剧烈波动。作为美国长期利率指 标的10年期国债收益率在3天内急升约0.6%，4月9日一度触及4.5%。 美国财长贝森特当时暗示，利率急剧波动的背景是对冲基金等的交易回撤。市场上出现了中 国为对抗美国的对等关税而抛售美国国债的猜测。贝森特否定了这种看法。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）三岛大地 纽约报道 REUTERS 美国财政部数据显示，截至4月底中国持有7572亿美元美国国债，比上月减少1.1%。市场上 曾有中国为对抗美国关税而大量抛售美国国债的猜测，但中国实际的减持幅度有限…… 美国财政部6月18日公布的4月底各国持有美国国债的数据显示，中国比上月减少1.1%至 7572亿美元。日本保持首位，在3月超过中国的英国继续保持第2位。市场上曾有中国为对抗 美国特朗普总统的对等关税而大量抛售美国国债的猜测，但中国实际的减持幅度有限。 这是反映4月上旬美国国债价格急剧波动的首次统计。中国的持有量连续2个月减少。与一年 前相比 ...