Group 1 - The main contract for alumina has seen a significant increase, with a daily rise of 2.60%, currently priced at 3237 yuan/ton, after previously experiencing a drop of nearly 2% [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the alumina industry chain is "Oscillating Bullish" for caustic soda and alumina, and "Oscillating" for aluminum [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - In the alumina industry chain, caustic soda prices are expected to continue a small - scale oscillating upward trend in the short term; alumina prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short term; and aluminum prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract oscillated downward during the day and continued to decline at night, closing at 2513 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton or 1.87%. Trading volume was 614,700 lots, a significant decrease from the previous trading day; open interest was 200,800 lots, an increase of 14,213 lots; turnover was 47.285 billion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous trading day [1] - **Important Information**: Weekly caustic soda operating rate was 85.97%, a 0.68% increase from the previous week; weekly domestic production was 835,100 tons, a 0.68% increase; weekly domestic factory inventory was 256,000 tons, a 2.77% increase; cost per 100% caustic soda was 1,800.96 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decrease; gross profit per 100% caustic soda was 1,202.22 yuan/ton, a 1.04% increase [1] - **Market Logic**: The average price of the domestic 32% liquid caustic soda market was 953.91 yuan/ton, up 3.38 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous working day. The domestic liquid caustic soda market average price increased, with different trends in futures and spot. The supply in the industry is relatively sufficient, and downstream receiving is stable. Non - aluminum downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the alumina market's demand is driven by the price improvement [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell put options [1] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract was weakly running during the day and oscillated narrowly at night, closing at 3111 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton or 1.18%. Trading volume was 2,165,900 lots, a slight decrease from the previous trading day; open interest was 473,600 lots, an increase of 30,803 lots; turnover was 136.348 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous trading day [3] - **Important Information**: Last week, domestic alumina factory inventory was 158547 tons, a 0.02% decrease from the previous week; market inventory was 76,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. This week, domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 162,160 tons, a 0.96% decrease; the weekly operating utilization rate was 76.46%, a 0.96% decrease. The average reference production cash cost of the domestic alumina industry was 3198.36 yuan/ton, a 4.04% decrease; industry gross profit was - 239.07 yuan/ton, a 45.24% increase [3] - **Market Logic**: The spot market average price was 3059.85 yuan/ton, up 48.62 yuan/ton or 1.61% from the previous trading day. The Guinea incident continued to disrupt the market, with an expected decrease in ore supply, and alumina prices remained high. The market's operating capacity was always at a low level, resulting in a supply gap. There was an expected decrease in Guinea's ore supply and an expected increase in imported ore prices, increasing enterprise costs and leading to a reluctance to sell in the industry. The import market was relatively active, with the Australian FOB price at 367 US dollars/ton. China's alumina imports in April were 10705.49 tons, a 90.12% year - on - year decrease and a 4.16% month - on - month decrease; exports were 262875.89 tons, a 101.62% year - on - year increase and an 11.41% month - on - month decrease [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell put options [3] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day's futures main 2507 contract oscillated, jumped at the night - session opening and continued a small - scale upward trend, closing at 20185 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton or 0.62%. Trading volume was 182,300 lots, a slight decrease from the previous trading day; open interest was 515,900 lots, a decrease of 5569 lots; turnover was 18.285 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous trading day [4] - **Important Information**: Bauxite weekly production was 1.13 million tons, a 0.53% increase; electrolytic aluminum weekly production was 84.09 tons, a 0.02% increase. This week, the industry's production cost was 16894.59 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase; the industry's average gross profit was 3229.78 yuan/ton, a 12.27% increase. Factory inventory during the week was 53,000 tons, a 3.99% decrease; market inventory was 61,940 tons, a 5.13% decrease; LME inventory was 395,400 tons, a 0.46% decrease; SHFE inventory was 62,800 tons, a 1.6% decrease [4] - **Market Logic**: The Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson emphasized a wait - and - see attitude, advocating patience in adjusting interest rates. Coupled with the downward risk of the US economy, the outer - market aluminum price was affected. The domestic market was still waiting and seeing about the impact of tariff policies, and the market sentiment eased after domestic banks lowered deposit rates. There were both bullish and bearish news in the current industry, but domestic macro - policies would continue to drive market demand, and the overall domestic market sentiment was good [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell put options [4]

来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 联系我们 官方网站：http://bestanalyst.cn 记得扫码关注微信公众号 「对冲研投」 寻找属于你的alpha 期货市场目前可供交易的工业品期货品种已有40余个，几乎占据了整个大宗商品市场的半壁江山。 近半年来，面对"跌跌不休"的工业硅&碳酸锂、迟迟难见回暖的黑色、阶段性走弱的化工品……你心中是否会有这样的疑问：工业品期货价 格距离上市以来低点有多远？ 一张图带你盘清楚，是谁在频频走低，又是谁在向上攀登！ | | | 交易理想国星球社群特供:期货&全球宏观交易全流程辅助工具&报告 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 工具表格或报告 | 目昭 | 使用难度 | 使用说明 | 是否需连接外部数据源 | | 研究阶段 | 《中国期货市场品种波动属性》 | 协助用户观察期货各品种不同频度下的波动 数据 易机会 | 较易 | 待上新 | 盗 | | | 《中国宏观价值相对套利》 | 协助用户观察宏观视角下各套利对品种的交 | 进阶 | 待上新 | 实时行情数据 | | | 《中国期 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Aromatics and Rubber Morning Report - Report Date: May 20, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - For PTA, the inventory de - stocking process will gradually shift to PX, and attention should be paid to opportunities to shrink the processing fee of far - month TA [2]. - For MEG, due to the unexpected reduction in oil - based supply and the short - term resilience of demand, the de - stocking of port inventory is expected to be more significant, and attention should be paid to phased positive spread opportunities [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, although the inventory has decreased month - on - month, the overall high supply and weak downstream profits mean that the fundamentals are unlikely to improve significantly, but the processing fee on the futures market has been compressed to a relatively low level, so it is expected to remain weak [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, with a slight reduction in national visible inventory, a small rebound in the price of Thai cup lump rubber, and the easing of the trade war, the recommended strategy is to wait and see [3]. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the price of PTA domestic spot fluctuated. The PTA processing fee generally increased, and the polyester gross profit also showed certain fluctuations. On May 19, the average daily trading basis of PTA spot was 2509(+198) [2][3]. - **Industry Conditions**: The near - end TA start - up rate increased month - on - month, the polyester start - up rate continued to rise, the inventory continued to be de - stocked, the basis strengthened overall, and the spot processing fee decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic PX start - up rate declined, overseas maintenance was implemented, PXN and its structure continued to strengthen, the efficiency of isomerization and disproportionation improved, and the aromatics price spread between the US and Asia declined [3]. MEG - **Price and Spread Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the price of MEG foreign and domestic spot fluctuated slightly. The MEG cash flow (ethylene) and profit continued to expand. On May 19, the negotiation price of MEG spot was around 4569 - 4573, and the basis was around 09(+92) [3]. - **Industry Conditions**: Near - end domestic oil - based MEG had unexpected shutdowns, coal - based MEG had planned maintenance, the start - up rate declined significantly. With less arrivals, port inventory was de - stocked, the downstream inventory level declined, the basis strengthened, and the profit and price ratio continued to expand [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Spread Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the price of polyester staple fiber products fluctuated slightly. The profit of staple fiber and pure polyester yarn also showed certain changes. On May 19, the spot price was around 6645, and the market basis was around 06 - 20 [3]. - **Industry Conditions**: Near - end Shanghai Yuanfang and Jiangyin Youcai increased their production capacity, the start - up rate increased to 96.2%, production and sales improved month - on - month, and inventory was de - stocked. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory increased, and inventory decreased month - on - month, but the profit declined [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price and Spread Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the prices of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber products fluctuated. The price difference between different varieties also changed. For example, on May 19, the daily change of the RU main contract was +100, and the weekly change was - 20 [3]. - **Industry Conditions**: The national visible inventory decreased slightly, the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded slightly, and the trade war situation eased [3]. Styrene - **Price and Spread Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the prices of raw materials such as ethylene and pure benzene, as well as styrene and its downstream products, fluctuated. The domestic profit of styrene and its downstream products also changed. For example, on May 19, the daily change of styrene (CFR China) was +15 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strategic shift of a prominent Chinese trader, Bian Ximing, from gold to copper, capitalizing on market trends and macroeconomic factors, resulting in significant profits in both commodities [1][2][18]. Group 1: Bian Ximing's Background and Achievements - Bian Ximing, known as the "Invisible King of Futures," has made a remarkable $1.5 billion (approximately 10.83 billion yuan) in the gold market from 2022 to 2024, showcasing his adept trading skills [2][14]. - He is the chairman of multiple companies, including Zhongcai Group and Zhongcai Futures, and holds a 65.32% stake in the group, which operates in various sectors including finance and futures [5][7]. Group 2: Transition from Gold to Copper - Despite gold prices reaching $3,500 per ounce, Bian shifted his focus to copper, which he perceives as undervalued, establishing a long position of $1 billion (approximately 7.25 billion yuan) in copper futures [15][18]. - As of early 2025, Bian's copper futures position has generated a floating profit of over $200 million (approximately 1.45 billion yuan) [17]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Copper's Potential - The demand for copper is expected to surge due to the growth of the renewable energy sector and infrastructure upgrades, with a projected supply-demand gap of 8 million tons by 2030 [20][22]. - Global copper supply is under pressure from geopolitical instability in major producing countries and export restrictions, leading to a structural shortage [20][21]. Group 4: Trading Strategy and Philosophy - Bian emphasizes a trading philosophy that combines trend-following, substantial positions, and segmented execution, focusing on confirming trends before entering large positions [26][27]. - His approach includes dynamic risk management through position adjustments rather than simple profit-taking, allowing for flexibility in volatile markets [28]. Group 5: Future Outlook for Copper - Analysts predict that copper prices could challenge $10,000 per ton by the end of 2025, indicating a potential "super cycle" for copper [30][31].

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一、品种策略跟踪 (一) 豆粕: 震荡下跌 焦点关注:豆粕主力合约 2509 合约继续震荡下跌,受供应增加 压力: 1. 国家粮油信息中心预计 5 月份进口大豆到港 1300 万吨，6 月到港 1200 万吨,油厂大豆周度压榨量将快速回升到 200 万吨以上, 5 月油厂豆粕库存将明显回升，豆粕价格承压下跌。 2、豆粕主力 2509 合约扩大跌幅,期价继续在各均线之下运行, 技术偏弱，策略上轻仓空单，主力 2509 合约支撑 2865，阻力 2906。 豆粕、玉米下跌 一、农产品板块综述 豆粕期价震荡下行,因进口大豆集中到港,油厂压榨量将大量回 升,供应增加,施压豆粕走低。玉米持续下跌,小麦即将上市,贸易 商腾库收麦,玉米短期上量增加,且市场传闻将进行进口玉米拍卖, 令期价承压下行。鸡蛋跳空下行,因蛋鸡存栏高位,端午备货临近尾 声，走货放缓，中间环节库存增加，蛋价承压下行。 2.。豆油主力 2509 合约反弹收阳,但期价仍在均线系统之下波 动,技术弱势尚未改变,策略上轻仓空单,主力 2509 合约支撑 7706, 阻力 7806。 (二) 棕榈油:反弹震荡 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约反弹震荡: 1. ...

2025.05.19-05.23 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 本周企业检修致供应下降，企业待发支撑下现货价格稳定。 纯碱需求淡稳，下游补库，采购可按需进行，消费及开工稳 健，出口情绪提升、部分企业接单量增。本周浮法拟新增一 条 500 吨产线点火、光伏保持稳定。预期纯碱2509运行区间 1250-1400，可考虑空仓观望。 本周有企业加入检修，个别企业陆续恢复，整体供应呈现下降预期， 预计产量67+万吨，开工率79+%。供应下降，企业待发支撑，现货 价格相对稳定。纯碱需求淡稳，下游有补库，当前现货价格尚可， 根据自身情况采购。整体消费波动不大，装置开工相对稳健。近期 出口情绪提升，有企业接单量增加。上周，浮法日熔量15.67万吨， 环比增加1 6 0 0吨，光伏日熔量9 . 8 8万吨，环比稳定。本周，浮法 预期一条500点火，光伏预期稳定。 综上所述，短期看，纯碱走势呈现稳定态势，情绪改善。 2 建议观望 中线策略建议 3 品 ...

涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> 集运指数(欧线)主力合约日内涨幅达6.00%，现报2395.4点。 ...

Group 1 - Thailand has postponed rubber tapping by one month, which may influence rubber prices [1] - The Thai Meteorological Department has warned of potential flash flood risks in the future, raising concerns for traders [1] - There are questions regarding whether bullish traders can confidently engage in trading amid production cut expectations [1]