Core Viewpoints - The traditional asset allocation frameworks, such as the Merrill Lynch Investment Clock and Pring Cycle, have limitations that necessitate the development of a new analytical framework [2][3] - The new framework, termed the "Macroeconomic Asset Allocation Three-Dimensional Pyramid," integrates strategic, tactical, and disturbance layers to enhance asset allocation decisions in a complex macroeconomic environment [3][20] Traditional Frameworks - The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock categorizes economic cycles into four stages: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession, providing a clear asset allocation strategy for each stage [6][8] - The Pring Cycle offers a more nuanced six-stage model that captures economic transitions more accurately, incorporating leading, coincident, and lagging indicators [12][13] - Both frameworks share the idealized assumption that economic cycles follow a fixed order, which can lead to inaccuracies in rapidly changing environments [10][15] Need for a New Framework - Geopolitical factors have become a fundamental logic influencing asset prices, necessitating their inclusion in asset allocation models [16] - Traditional frameworks rely on lagging data, limiting their predictive capabilities regarding asset price movements and economic turning points [17] - A modern framework must consider both short-term business cycles and long-term financial cycles, integrating observable economic and financial indicators [18][19] New Framework Structure - The "Macroeconomic Asset Allocation Three-Dimensional Pyramid" consists of three interrelated layers: strategic, tactical, and disturbance [20][24] - The strategic layer focuses on long-term financial cycles, using indicators like credit/GDP gaps and real estate prices to identify systemic risks [24] - The tactical layer combines real economy cycle indices and financial conditions indices to dynamically capture mid-term asset rotation opportunities [25][31] - The disturbance layer incorporates geopolitical risk indices to adjust for significant external shocks, enhancing the framework's robustness [26][33] Asset Allocation Decisions - The allocation process follows a structured approach: strategic direction setting, tactical rotation capturing, and disturbance hedging [4][35] - Strategic decisions are based on the financial cycle's position, determining long-term allocations across major asset classes [37] - Tactical decisions utilize an eight-state matrix derived from the interaction of economic and financial conditions to guide asset prioritization [41] - The disturbance layer mandates a global hedging strategy during heightened geopolitical risks, ensuring portfolio resilience [42][44]

【宏观消息】 周三晚间，美元指数收跌。经济数据方面，美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，远逊于预期，创2023 年3月以来最低水平，进一步印证美国劳动力市场正在走弱，强化了市场对美联储降息的紧迫性预期。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【机构观点】 国信期货：短期来看，贵金属在连续上涨、尤其是白银创出历史新高后，技术上面临获利了结与高位震 荡的压力。然而，疲软的就业数据与美联储官员鸽派的言论共同巩固了政策转向预期，或为价格提供下 行支撑。预计市场将进入高位整固阶段。技术面上，COMEX白银的重要支撑参考57美元/盎司附近，若 企稳则有望再次挑战60美元关口。 货币政策层面，美国财长贝森特公开表示"经济某些领域已出现疲软，需要降息"，其言论与潜在下任美 联储主席人选哈塞特的鸽派立场形成呼应，持续为贵金属营造宽松的货币环境预期。 【白银期货行情表现】12月4日，沪银主力暂报13424元/千克，跌幅1.42%，今日沪银主力开盘价13691 元/千克，截至目前最高13826元/千克，最低13322元/千克。 地缘政治方面，克里姆林宫澄清普京并未拒绝美国方案，美乌高级代表将于周四会面，紧张局势虽未升 级但谈判进程 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The expected future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve support the prices of precious metals. Economic and employment data are mixed, which disturbs the probability of a December interest rate cut by the Fed, but the probability remains above 80%. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries, central banks' continuous gold purchases, and geopolitical risks will support precious metal prices in the long - term. The supply - demand expectations for platinum and rhodium in 2025 - 26 are tight and may shift from tight to loose respectively, and their prices may be adjusted due to various factors [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Data - **Gold**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price of the futures active contract was 956.70, with a decrease of 1.72 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 273,359, a decrease of 13,624 from the previous day. The inventory (in ten - gram units) remained at 90,873. For spot Shanghai gold T+D, the closing price was - 5.15, the trading volume was 26,942, and the holding weight was 220,396. The spread between the near - month continuous and far - month active contracts was - 3.32, and the basis (spot - to - futures price difference) was - 3.73. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX gold futures was 4,133.80, the trading volume was 169,613, and the inventory (in troy ounces) was 36,573,657.72. The price of London gold spot was 4,210.30 [1] - **Silver**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price of the futures active contract of Shanghai silver was 13,536, the trading volume was 984,592, and the holding weight was - 53,754. The spread between the near - month continuous and far - month active contracts was - 7.00, and the basis was - 21.00. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX silver futures was 58.93, the trading volume was 107,261, and the inventory (in troy ounces) was 455,933,737.28. The price of London silver spot was 58.37 [1] Important Information - Bessent downplayed the Federal Reserve Chairman's control over interest rates and proposed setting a residence limit for regional Fed presidents, stating that tariffs could be reconfigured. The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the largest drop since March 2023, while the US ISM services PMI expansion rate was the fastest in nine months, the price index was at a seven - month low, and the employment index was at a six - month high [1] Multi - and Short - Side Logic and Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: The multi - side logic includes mixed economic and employment data disturbing the Fed's December interest rate cut probability, but the probability remaining above 80% due to some Fed officials' support. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries, central banks' continuous gold purchases, high London silver lease rates, and geopolitical risks support precious metal prices in the long - term. The trading strategy is to mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,800 - 4,000 and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600; for Shanghai gold, focus on 890 - 920 and 970 - 1,000. For London silver, focus on 49 - 54 and 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, focus on 11,500 - 12,500 and 14,000 - 15,000 [1] - **Platinum**: The supply - side factors include high deep - mine mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging production equipment affecting production, and slow growth in recycled platinum production. The demand - side factors include increased demand from traditional fuel and hybrid cars due to higher emission standards and positive demand expectations from industries like hydrogen production, fiberglass, and jewelry investment. The 2025 - 26 global platinum supply - demand is expected to be tight. However, the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in December, the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, and high platinum prices suppressing downstream demand may lead to price adjustments. The trading strategy is to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices, or consider the "long platinum, short silver" arbitrage opportunity. For London platinum, focus on the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000; for domestic platinum, focus on 335 - 385 and 465 - 516 [1] - **Rhodium**: On the supply side, deep - mine mining, power shortages, labor disputes, and lower ore grades affect production, but an increase in recycled rhodium supply is expected due to the car scrapping cycle in China and globally. On the demand side, demand from cars is expected to decline due to higher emission standards and the development of new energy vehicles, and the demand elasticity in the industrial and medical fields is low. The 2025 - 26 global rhodium supply - demand is expected to shift from tight to loose. The expected interest rate cut by the Fed in December, the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, and the supply - demand shift may lead to price adjustments. The trading strategy is to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices. For London rhodium, focus on the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800; for domestic rhodium, focus on 305 - 357 and 415 - 465 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, gold prices are likely to rise due to the Fed's expected rate cuts and the impact of the new Fed Chair nominee. However, factors like the Venezuela situation, Russia - Ukraine conflict, and global trade tensions also affect prices. Silver, platinum, and palladium, which have strong industrial attributes, have shown signs of weakness recently, and investors should be aware of the adjustment risks after their short - term price surges. London gold needs to accumulate momentum in the range of $3880 - 4380 per ounce, and it's not advisable to over - chase rises or falls at present. In the medium - to - long - term, factors such as central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system support the upward trend of precious metals [4]. - The intermediate bull market of precious metals that started in March 2024 is not over. In the next half - year and one - year, London gold may rise to $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. After the significant decline in gold and silver prices since late October, some of the internal adjustment risks have been released. Investors should look for opportunities to go long again based on the resonance of technical and fundamental factors [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The expected Fed rate cuts push up the liquidity premium of precious metals, but the situation in Venezuela, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and global trade tensions also affect prices. Silver, platinum, and palladium have shown signs of weakness. London gold needs to accumulate momentum in the $3880 - 4380 per ounce range. This week, pay attention to the US - Russia talks, the Venezuela situation, and the November PMI data of the US and Europe [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: The table shows the pre - closing price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, percentage change, open interest, and change in open interest of Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Gold T + D, and Silver T + D [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: The intermediate bull market of precious metals since March 2024 is not over. In the next half - year and one - year, London gold may reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce, and London silver may reach $58 and $63 per ounce. After the decline in gold and silver prices since late October, look for long - entry opportunities based on technical and fundamental factors [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][15]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russia and the US discussed the possible ways to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but they failed to reach a compromise on territorial disputes [16]. - US President Trump will announce the nominee for the Fed Chair early next year, further prolonging the selection process [16]. - The eurozone's inflation rate unexpectedly rose in November, which may strengthen the expectation that the European Central Bank will not cut interest rates further soon [17].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Global Commodity Outlook 2026 Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global commodity market outlook for 2026, highlighting the impact of geopolitical risks, changes in global trade order, and the influence of emerging economies and AI development on commodity demand [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Geopolitical Risks and Supply Uncertainty** Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and US-China trade frictions, are increasing supply risks in the commodity market, particularly during the transition between old and new orders [2][5]. 2. **Demand Restructuring** The demand for commodities is being reshaped by the industrialization of emerging economies and advancements in AI. Investments in AI and energy transition are driving demand for metals like copper and natural gas [1][2][7]. 3. **Strategic Stockpiling** Non-OECD countries are enhancing their strategic stockpiling to absorb excess oil supply, which is expected to have a profound impact on the commodity market [1][8]. 4. **Global Monetary System Changes** Changes in the global monetary system, including increased central bank gold purchases, are affecting commodity markets. This trend may lead to liquidity tightening and a shift in commodity flows towards the US [1][10]. 5. **Oil Market Dynamics** The oil market is expected to face challenges such as limited OPEC production increases, risks of US shale oil production declines, and low inventory levels due to emerging market stockpiling [2][11][12]. 6. **Copper Price Outlook** Copper prices are projected to rise in the coming years due to demand growth outpacing supply growth, driven by energy transition and electrification investments [2][13]. 7. **Black Metal Market Sentiment** A bearish outlook is held for black metals like iron ore, with expectations of declining prices due to increased supply pressure from new mines and a general demand downturn [2][15]. 8. **Agricultural Market Trends** Agricultural commodities are expected to stabilize at cyclical lows, with specific impacts from US-China trade tensions affecting soybean prices and short-term pressures on pork prices [2][16]. 9. **Gold Investment Opportunities** Gold is viewed positively as an investment due to central bank purchases and ETF inflows, with expectations of continued demand in a de-globalizing environment [2][17]. Other Important Insights - The transition to a new global order is complicating supply chains and increasing uncertainty, which may lead to higher production costs and volatility in futures markets [5][6]. - The interplay between supply-side adjustments and demand recovery narratives will shape the commodity market dynamics in 2026 [4][10]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the expected trends and challenges in the global commodity market leading into 2026.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's future interest rate cut expectations support precious metal prices. Economic and employment data are mixed, which disturbs the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term. The supply - demand expectations of platinum and palladium are different, and their prices may be adjusted due to various factors such as interest rate expectations and supply - demand changes [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price was 956.70 yuan/g, the trading volume was 273,359.00, and the inventory was 90,873.00 (ten - gram). Compared with the previous week, the closing price increased by 9.54 yuan/g, and the trading volume decreased by 26,737.00 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 13,423.00 yuan/ten - gram, the trading volume was 2,664,403.00, and the inventory was 626,633.00 (ten - gram). Compared with the previous week, the closing price increased by 159.00 yuan/ten - gram, and the trading volume increased by 2,464,589.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 4,133.80 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 169,613.00, and the inventory was 36,573,657.72 (troy ounces). Compared with the previous week, the closing price increased by 101.00 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume decreased by 42,456.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 58.93 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 107,261.00, and the inventory was 455,933,737.28 (troy ounces). Compared with the previous week, the closing price decreased by 0.22 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume decreased by 4,787.00 [1] 3.2 Important Information - Bessent downplayed the Fed Chairman's control over interest rates and proposed setting a residency limit for regional Fed presidents, saying that tariffs could be re - structured. The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the largest decline since March 2023. However, the US ISM services PMI expansion speed was the fastest in nine months, the price index was at a seven - month low, and the employment index was at a six - month high [1] 3.3 Gold and Silver - **Multi - empty Logic**: US economic and employment data in November were mixed, disturbing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. But the probability of a December rate cut was still over 80%. Fiscal stimulus policies in multiple countries led to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficits, and central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on price dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,800 - 4,000 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 890 - 920 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 970 - 1,000 yuan/g. Similar support and resistance levels are provided for silver [1] 3.4 Platinum - **Multi - empty Logic**: Supply is affected by high mining costs, unstable power supply, etc., and demand is expected to increase due to stricter emission standards. The supply - demand of platinum is expected to be tight from 2025 - 2026. However, the expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates and high platinum prices may suppress downstream demand, leading to price adjustments [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits on rallies. Consider the "long platinum, short silver" arbitrage opportunity. For London platinum, pay attention to the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000 dollars/ounce. For domestic platinum, the support level is around 335 - 385 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 465 - 516 yuan/g [1] 3.5 Palladium - **Multi - empty Logic**: Supply is affected by mining difficulties but may increase due to vehicle scrapping. Demand from the automotive industry is expected to decline, and the supply - demand of palladium is expected to shift from tight to loose from 2025 - 2026. Interest rate expectations and supply - demand changes may lead to price adjustments [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits on rallies. For London palladium, pay attention to the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800 dollars/ounce. For domestic palladium, the support level is around 305 - 357 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 415 - 465 yuan/g [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil's geopolitical situation may lead to price increases. A pessimistic view on the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and an expected risk escalation in the Caribbean region could drive prices up. Chemicals, especially aromatics and methanol, are favored for long - positions. Other products have different trading outlooks based on their fundamentals and technical analysis [1][3]. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro drivers are weak in the short - term. Geopolitical factors are likely to be the main driver in December. A short - term bullish view but difficult to trade, and a mid - term shorting opportunity after a pulse - like upward movement is expected [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level is short - term oscillating. An intraday oscillation, with a break below 450 indicating a shift from an uptrend to oscillation. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [3]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Seasonal de - stocking is unexpectedly replaced by inventory accumulation, with a risk of over - stocking. There are short - term fundamental contradictions, and mid - term differences are significant. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the gasoline - blending logic and future imports. Be cautious of potential geopolitical - driven upward pulses in crude oil [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows short - term oscillation, with an unclear structure. The 15 - minute level shows an upward structure, with a signal of a callback end and a counter - package at the end of the session. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation and a trial long - position on the 15 - minute level with a stop - loss at 6550 is recommended [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: There are no short - term contradictions. Tire demand has limited growth potential, and supply - side factors show a normal seasonal inventory accumulation in Qingdao during the Southeast Asian rubber - tapping season. An oscillating view is taken [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows short - term oscillation. An intraday decline on reduced positions, with an unclear hourly - level structure. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [10][12]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: It is mainly traded based on butadiene. Butadiene inventory has reached a 5 - year high in recent weeks, putting pressure on prices. Although the fundamental driver is downward, the low valuation limits short - selling space. Be cautious of potential geopolitical - driven upward pulses in crude oil. An oscillating and observing approach is recommended [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows short - term oscillation. An intraday decline on reduced positions, maintaining an oscillating structure. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [15]. (5) PX - **Logic**: Its supply - demand is moderately bullish, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is based on expectations. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost of crude oil and relatively strong chemical fundamentals may attract more long - positions. A long - position view is maintained [17][19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure, with an intraday oscillation but the upward structure remaining unchanged. The hourly - level support is at 6700. A strategy of holding long - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - loss at 6700 is recommended [19]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, polyester has relatively low pressure, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is based on expectations. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost of crude oil and relatively strong chemical fundamentals may attract more long - positions. A long - position view is maintained [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure, with an intraday oscillation but the upward structure remaining unchanged. The hourly - level support is at 4620. A strategy of holding long - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - loss at 4620 is recommended [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: It still faces the pressure of upcoming olefin capacity expansion, with high supply and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand drive is bearish, and attention should be paid to the cost - side drive from crude oil [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure, with an intraday oscillation. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [23]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Iranian methanol plant outages are more than expected. With the start of winter gas restrictions, a full - scale shutdown is likely in December. After the market over - reacted to the less - than - expected gas restrictions, the price has room for upward correction. High shipping volumes and high inventories have already been priced in, and the port de - stocking rate is accelerating. There is a large upward space as short - positions are unwound [24][26]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. An intraday oscillation, with the upward structure continuing. The short - term support is at 2100. A strategy of holding long - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - loss at 2100 is recommended [26]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue. With the collapse of domestic real - estate demand, there is no hope for demand improvement. Social inventory is at a high level and still increasing, with no upward drive [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. An intraday oscillation, with an unclear short - term technical structure. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Multiple MEG plants in Iran are under maintenance, but domestic supply remains high with the resumption of maintenance and new capacity expansion, leading to continued inventory accumulation. Be cautious of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday decline on increased positions, with the short - term pressure at 3920. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [30]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: Downstream demand recovery is slow, and the supply pressure from upstream olefin capacity expansion remains. The supply - demand situation is weak and has not improved. Be cautious of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday oscillation, with the short - term pressure at 6825. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [32]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, and the reduction of downstream glass production lines suppresses demand. Although the downward fundamental drive remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short - positions is reduced [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday decline on reduced positions, with the downward structure unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 1195. A strategy of cautiously holding remaining short - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - profit at 1195 is recommended [33]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: New capacity has been put into operation, and most plants have resumed production after maintenance, resulting in high supply. The alumina industry's losses are expanding, and demand for caustic soda remains weak. There is no upward drive in the supply - demand situation [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday decline on increased positions, with the downward structure unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 2220. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [36].

12月3日，周三，亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡微涨。黄金价格在周二经历了一次典型的获利了结过 程，现货黄金最低触及4163美元附近，下跌幅度约为1.5%。这主要是因为在周一创下六周新高后，部 分投资者选择锁定利润，导致短期卖压增加。然而，这种回调并非市场弱势的信号，而是健康调整的表 现。尾盘时段，金价迅速回升至4200美元上方，最终收报4205美元/盎司，跌幅收窄至0.6%。 基本消息面： 市场对美联储在12月会议上降息25个基点的可能性定价高达89%，这一概率较一个月前大幅上升，从 63%跃升而来。投资者们正密切关注即将公布的关键数据，包括周三的11月份ADP就业报告和周五的9 月份个人消费支出（PCE）指数，后者是美联储首选的通胀指标。尽管这些数据可能不会颠覆降息决 定，但它们将为美联储的利率路径提供更多指引。 地缘政治风险方面，当前地缘政治的不确定性仍为黄金保留了避险买盘基础，但市场对此类消息已显出 疲态。中东地区冲突、红海航运危机仍在持续，东欧战线也处于焦灼状态。不过目前尚未出现新的地缘 政治爆点，难以推动金价进一步上涨，仅能在金价回调时起到一定的支撑作用，避免其大幅下挫。 美国总统特朗普12月2日在白 ...

前言：富格林深耕大中华投资客户市场超过15年，拥有丰富判断经验为广大投资者客观分析冻结欺诈困 局形成，专业分析师团队实时分析市况，精准协助曝光金价入市盈利契机。周二（12月2日）美市盘 中，金价因投资者获利了结自六周高位回落，但在美联储降息预期强化的背景下，贵金属仍获得底部支 撑，市场正等待本周多项关键美国经济数据。投资者可随时联系富格林获取冻结欺诈协助，专业分析师 团队在线交流精准曝光操作获利时机。 富格林据讯，因投资者获利了结，现货黄金美盘跳水，最终收跌0.59%，报4207.52美元/盎司；现货白 银回调后涨势不改，最终收涨0.86%，报58.49美元/盎司。 黄金价格在周二经历了一次典型的获利了结过程，这主要是因为在周一创下六周新高后，部分投资者选 择锁定利润，导致短期卖压增加。然而，这种回调并非市场弱势的信号，而是健康调整的表现。尾盘时 段，金价迅速回升至4200美元上方。近期美国经济数据逐渐显示出降温迹象，在这种背景下，黄金的短 期波动更像是蓄势待发为后续上涨铺平道路。 富格林深耕大中华投资客户市场超过15年，拥有丰富判断经验为广大投资者客观分析冻结欺诈困局形 成，专业分析师团队实时分析市况，精准 ...

| 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Au不小于(%):99.99 | 956.3元/克 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海黄金现货市场 | | Au不小于(%):99.99 | 953.74元/克 | 市场价 | 上海市/黄浦区 | 上海黄金 | 期货市场上看，12月3日收盘，沪金期货主力合约报956.70元/克，跌幅0.55%，最高触及962.18元/克， 最低下探948.18元/克，日内成交量达300096手。 【市场资讯】 12月2日芝加哥商业交易所(CME)：黄金期货成交量为237238手，较上个交易日减少12633手。未平仓合 约为419582手，较上个交易日增加885手。 数据显示，12月3日上海黄金现货价格报价953.40元/克，相较于期货主力价格(956.70元/克)贴水3.3元/ 克。 12月3日，上期所沪金期货仓单录得90873千克，较上一交易日持平；最近一周，沪金期货仓单累计增长 450千克，增长幅度为0.50%；最近一个月，沪金期货仓单累计增长3057千克，增长幅度为3.48%。 分析观点： (1 ...