前言：富格林投资（香港黄金交易所A1级别100号行员）立足香港重视提供绿色可持续金融服务，丰富分析经验团队以 全球视野为投资者合理配置产品策略方案，精准剖析行情发掘盈利增值契机。周二(6月24日)，现货黄金价格暴跌，触 及两周以来的低点，主要原因在于伊朗和以色列宣布停火，打压对避险黄金的需求，此外美联储主席鲍威尔发表偏鹰派 的言论，这也打击金价走势。 由于市场预期伊以停火将降低中东石油供应中断的风险，周二油价下跌6%，创两周新低。WTI原油盘中一度回落至64 美元/桶下方，最终收跌3.35%，报64.96美元/桶；布伦特原油收跌3.7%，报67.73美元/桶。 特朗普周二表示，以色列和伊朗已经就中东局势达成"完全且彻底的停火协议"。 受此消息影响，原油价格大幅回落。 地缘政治暂时缓解之际，市场也将关注点转向库存数据。最新美国石油协会（API）数据显示，截至6月20日当周，美 国原油库存减少423万桶，远超市场预期的下降250万桶，表明炼厂需求持续强劲。 富格林投资分析师认为，尽管停火协议暂时平息了中东地区的紧张局势，但其可持续性仍存疑虑。以色列最新表示已命 令军方对德黑兰目标发动新一轮袭击，指责伊朗发射导弹违 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 螺纹产量回升，表观需求继续下降，体现了近期较好的高炉利润与需求淡 | | | | 季特征。库存小幅下降，供需总体上矛盾不大，部分地区缺规格现象仍然 | | | | 存在。铁水产量仍然处于高位，出口需求仍然较好。外围地缘政治升级有 | | | | 一定的向上拉动作用，在现实基本面未出现明显改善的背景下，短期或偏 | | | | 强，中期仍或区间运行。【2950，2990】 | | | 区间运行 | 热卷产量小幅下降，表观需求环比回升，库存重新下降。供需总体相对平 | | 热卷 | | 衡，矛盾不大。地缘政治风险抬高商品整体水平，短期表现或偏强，中期 | | | | 维持区间运行。【3070，3110】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转增，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | 供给端发到货双增，港口去库，钢厂增库。整体供需结构环比继续改善， | | | | 矿价偏强运行。短期区间参与，中期逢高布空【690，715】 | | 焦炭 | | 近期焦化利润 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the Fed can wait to cut interest rates, and the cease - fire between Israel and Iran reduced global risk aversion. The US dollar index weakened in the short - term, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically, China's consumption growth was strong in May, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The overall economic growth was stable, which helped boost domestic risk appetite. The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the dovish policy statements of Fed officials supported domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index may rebound in the short - term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds may fluctuate at a high level, and cautious waiting is advised; for the commodity sector, black metals may fluctuate at a low level, and cautious waiting is recommended; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals may have intensified fluctuations, and cautious waiting is recommended; precious metals may fluctuate at a high level, and cautious waiting is advised [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, Powell's statement and the Israel - Iran cease - fire led to a weaker US dollar index and increased global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic situation and external factors supported domestic risk appetite. For assets, different investment suggestions were given for stock indices, treasury bonds, and various commodity sectors [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as batteries, humanoid robots, and automobiles, the domestic stock market continued to rise. China's economic situation, the easing of Middle East geopolitical tensions, and Fed officials' dovish statements supported domestic risk appetite. The market's trading logic focused on multiple factors, and short - term cautious long positions were recommended [3]. Precious Metals - The Israel - Iran cease - fire reduced the safe - haven demand for precious metals, causing prices to decline. The Fed's stance and economic data influenced the market. With the easing of the Middle East conflict, precious metals were under short - term pressure [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - On Tuesday, steel prices slightly declined, and trading volume was low. The easing of the Middle East situation and falling oil prices affected the market. Although demand was not significantly worse and inventory was decreasing, supply increased, and the market was expected to bottom - out and fluctuate in the short - term [6]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore prices declined. Iron ore supply was expected to remain high in the second - quarter peak season, and short - term prices were expected to fluctuate within a range, with a possible mid - term decline [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Tuesday, the prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were stable. The demand for ferroalloys was okay in the short - term. With production changes in different regions, the overall alloy output had little change. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range, and prices might decline if oil prices weakened [7][8]. Soda Ash - On Tuesday, soda ash prices were weakly fluctuating. Supply was increasing but at a slower pace, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and inventory was increasing. Prices were expected to be under pressure and fluctuate within a range in the short - term [8]. Glass - On Tuesday, glass prices were strongly fluctuating. Supply and demand were both weak, and the market was expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [9]. Non - Ferrous and New Energy Copper - Fed officials' stance changes affected the market. Copper production was high, demand had a marginal weakening risk, and inventory growth had slowed. The high price difference between COMEX and LME affected imports. Future market trends depended on US negotiations and tariff policies [10]. Aluminum - The easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation led to a decline in aluminum prices. Inventory accumulation indicated a possible turning point, and demand had a marginal weakening risk [11]. Aluminum Alloy - Entering the off - season, demand was weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supported prices. Prices were expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term with limited upside [11]. Tin - Supply was tight, and the start - up rate decreased slightly. Demand was in the off - season, and orders declined. Prices were expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term with limited upside due to various factors [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The weighted contract of lithium carbonate rebounded, but supply increased while demand weakened, and inventory was high. Short - term waiting and mid - term short - positions were recommended [12]. Industrial Silicon - The market was in a sideways trend. Supply and demand were both weak, and prices were slightly affected by coal prices. Short - term waiting and mid - term short - positions were recommended [13]. Polysilicon - The market was weak. Supply was at a low level, and demand pressure was increasing. If the photovoltaic industry increased production cuts in the third quarter, the supply - demand contradiction would intensify [13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Trump's statements and the cease - fire agreement made the market focus on potential supply surpluses, and oil prices were expected to remain weakly fluctuating [14]. Asphalt - Oil price declines led to lower asphalt prices. Although inventory removal was slow, demand was approaching the peak season. It was expected to follow crude oil and fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [14]. PX - Crude oil price drops led to PX price declines, but the downward space was limited. Tight supply was expected to continue, and it would follow crude oil and fluctuate weakly in the short - term [15]. PTA - The PTA basis remained stable, but crude oil price changes might lead to downstream contradictions. With high polyester开工, inventory pressure was increasing, and prices might face upward pressure later [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Crude oil price drops and reduced supply risks affected ethylene glycol. Inventory removal slowed down, and prices were expected to be suppressed in the short - term [15]. Short - Fiber - Crude oil price drops led to short - fiber price declines. It followed the polyester sector and was expected to fluctuate strongly. With high inventory, it would wait for the peak - season demand [16]. Methanol - The methanol market declined, but supply shortages and profit repairs limited the downward space. It was expected to fluctuate strongly within a range in the short - term [17]. PP - PP prices declined. With increasing production and weakening demand, prices were expected to fall, and the development of the Israel - Iran conflict should be monitored [17]. LLDPE - Polyethylene prices adjusted. With stable production and demand, and the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the market was expected to weaken and fluctuate strongly in the short - term [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - CBOT soybeans declined due to the influence of soybean oil and crude oil. Favorable weather in the US Midwest was expected [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The high - opening rate of oil mills led to a gradually looser supply - demand situation for soybean meal. The market sentiment was weakly fluctuating, and the domestic basis was expected to remain unchanged [18]. Palm Oil - No detailed content provided for palm oil analysis. Live Hogs - The expected low pig prices until August - September might lead to continuous selling pressure for the LH09 contract [20].

商品日报 20250625 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 宏观：金油回吐地缘溢价，国内股市放量上涨 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 海外方面：以色列与伊朗达成停火协议，地缘风险继续缓解，推动市场焦点重新转向下 半年美联储降息节奏：①鲍威尔国会听证上表示，当前可"有条件等待"，美联储正在评估 关税对经济的影响，利率政策可延后再决策；②偏鸽官员博斯蒂克表态更偏鹰，称暂无降息 必要，预期年内或仅降息一次、幅度 25BP。资产价格方面，自 6 月 13 日以色列空袭伊朗以 来的油价涨幅已全部回吐，金价回调逾 1%，美股延续强势修复，美债收益率回落至 4.3%， 美元指数跌破 98 关口，关注本周五参议院对"美丽大法案"的关键投票。 国内方面：上证指数重返 3400 点上方，两市成交额回升至 1.45 万亿，风格上北证 50、 创业板、微盘股表现强劲，行业上汽车零部件、金融板块领涨，市场风险偏好继续走强，放 量驱动下股指加速上行。央行公告 6 月 MLF 续作 3000 亿，资金维持宽松，一级市场需求偏 弱、股 ...

Market Overview - Southeast Asia ETF fell by 2.99% in the past two weeks (2025/06/07-2025/06/20) [1] - Thailand and Indonesia markets remain under pressure, while Vietnam shows signs of recovery [1] - Southeast Asia ETF underperformed compared to Japan, Latin America, the United States, and China [1] Country-Specific Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF decreased by 4.70%, underperforming by 1.71 percentage points [2] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF fell by 2.87%, outperforming by 0.13 percentage points [2] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF dropped by 6.41%, underperforming by 3.42 percentage points due to political turmoil and economic concerns [2] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF declined by 1.40%, outperforming by 1.59 percentage points [2] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF decreased by 0.48%, outperforming by 2.52 percentage points, with improved market sentiment recently [2] Risk Factors - Risks include macroeconomic downturn and geopolitical uncertainties [3]

文字早评 2025/06/25 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+1.15%，创指+2.30%，科创 50+1.79%，北证 50+3.65%，上证 50+1.16%，沪深 300+1.20%， 中证 500+1.62%，中证 1000+1.92%，中证 2000+2.22%，万得微盘+2.72%。两市合计成交 14146 亿，较上 一日+2920 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、伊朗和以色列已同意在 24 小时之内分阶段 "全面停火"，停火于周二开始，这场"持续 12 天的战 争"将正式结束。 2、央行：将研究制定新阶段金融科技发展规划，出台深化运用金融科技推动金融数字化智能化转型的 政策文件。 3、商务部将组织开展 2025 年千县万镇新能源汽车消费季活动，活动时间为 2025 年 7 月至 12 月。通知 指出，各地要认真落实汽车以旧换新政策，在新能源汽车消费季活动场地内普遍设置汽车以旧换新专区， 更好满足县乡地区群众多样化购车需求。 资金面：融资额+42.24 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+0.30bp 至 1.370%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.40bp 至 2.8716 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals - The overnight international oil price dropped, with Brent's August contract falling 4.01%. Global oil inventories increased in Q1 and Q2, and the supply-demand imbalance persists. Brent is expected to return to the $57 - $70 per barrel range, and investors can consider shorting at the upper boundary [2]. - Precious metals declined as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran reduced risk - aversion sentiment. Market focus may shift to tariff negotiations and the Fed [3]. - LME copper retraced gains, with the LME 0 - 3 month premium dropping to $150. Short positions should be held [4]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated overnight. Social inventories increased, and there are short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [5]. - Alumina spot trading was scarce, and the futures are in a weak oscillation. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures had limited fluctuations. Consider a long AD and short AL strategy if the spread between AL2511 and AD2511 widens [7]. - Shanghai zinc's upward movement was driven by short - covering, but downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to remain bearish on rebounds [8]. - Shanghai lead is currently in a state of wait - and - see. A long position can be considered if it breaks through 17,000 [9]. - Shanghai nickel is in a bearish trend, and short positions should be held [10]. - Tin prices oscillated downward. Hold a small number of short positions in the far - month contracts [11]. - Lithium carbonate futures rebounded, but the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. - Polysilicon futures rebounded with a reduction in positions. The market is expected to remain weakly oscillating [13]. - Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, but the upward drive is limited. Hold a wait - and - see attitude [14]. - Steel prices continued to decline at night. Demand expectations are pessimistic, and the market is under pressure [15]. - Iron ore prices weakened overnight. Supply is expected to increase, and the market will oscillate in the short term [16]. - Coke prices oscillated. The fourth round of price cuts was fully implemented, and the market will oscillate narrowly [17]. - Coking coal prices oscillated weakly. Production decreased due to safety inspections, and the market will oscillate narrowly and weakly [18]. - Manganese silicon prices' volatility increased. The market is expected to rise in the short term [19]. - Silicon iron prices oscillated. The market is expected to rise in the short term [20]. Group 2: Shipping and Chemicals - The opening of Maersk's W28 voyage cabins at lower prices strengthened the market's pessimistic expectation of falling freight rates. The market lacks positive factors in the short term [21]. - Fuel oil futures fell following the decline in crude oil prices. The cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to rebound [22]. - The potential increase in fuel oil deduction ratio for asphalt refineries may be negative for the asphalt market. Terminal demand is expected to improve [23]. - Liquefied petroleum gas prices are under downward pressure due to increased supply after the easing of geopolitical risks [24]. - Urea demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and exports may be the key to the subsequent market [25]. - Methanol prices dropped due to the easing of the Israel - Iran situation. The market is mainly affected by the macro - situation [26]. - Styrene prices are expected to continue to decline as the ceasefire agreement led to a drop in oil prices. Supply pressure is increasing [27]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are affected by the decline in oil prices. Supply and demand are relatively stable [28]. - PVC prices may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda prices are weak, and the supply pressure is high [29]. - PX and PTA prices oscillated narrowly. The supply - demand pattern may become looser in the medium term [30]. - Ethylene glycol prices continued to decline. It will oscillate at the bottom in the medium term [31]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed the decline of raw materials. The situation of short - fiber is relatively better [32]. - Glass prices weakened slightly at night. High inventory and weak demand persist [33]. - Rubber supply is increasing, and demand is recovering. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [34]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be bearish in the long term due to high supply pressure [35]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to weather changes from June to August [36]. - Vegetable oil prices fell following the decline in oil prices. Long - term long positions can be considered on dips [37]. - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly. A bearish strategy is recommended in the short term [38]. - Domestic soybean prices oscillated. Pay attention to the US soybean new - crop area report at the end of June [39]. - Corn prices continued to decline. The market may oscillate in the short term [40]. - Pig futures prices fluctuated. There is large pressure on future pig supplies [41]. - Egg futures prices continued to fall. Egg production capacity is still being released [42]. - Cotton prices are recommended to be bought on dips. Pay attention to the US cotton planting area report at the end of June [43]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate. US sugar is still in a downward trend [44]. - Apple prices are recommended to be shorted. The new - season production is expected to be bearish [45]. - Wood prices oscillated. Supply is tight, but demand is in the off - season [46]. - Pulp prices are recommended to be held in a wait - and - see attitude. Supply is relatively loose [47]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rebounded strongly, and index futures rose. After the cease - fire, the market may refocus on economic and trade negotiations. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [48]. - Treasury bond futures mostly fell. The bond market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [49].

贵金属日报 2025-06-25 贵金属 沪金跌 1.25 %，报 770.00 元/克，沪银跌 1.06 %，报 8672.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.08 %， 报 3336.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.43 %，报 35.89 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.3%，美元指数报 97.93 ； 市场展望： 昨日美联储主席鲍威尔就货币政策在国会作证词，其对于降息表态相对谨慎。同时海外地缘政 治风险有所消退，金银价格短线面临利空压制。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，若美国通胀水平及劳动力市场表现强劲，则可能推迟降息。绝大部分 政策制定者认为今年晚些时候降息是合适的。但鲍威尔同时表明未来的利率路径有多种，若通 胀未如预想般强劲，则建议尽早降息。当前联储未进行降息的原因在于美联储内部及外部的经 济预测都显示通胀在今年将出现显著上升。 但与此同时，昨日公布的美国经济数据表现弱势，美国 6 月谘商会消费者信心指数为 93，低 于预期的 100 以及前值的 98。 海外地缘政治风险方面，美国总统特朗普宣布，伊朗和以色列已达成一致，将进行全面停火。 避险因素对于黄金价格的支撑将有所弱化。 ...

首席点评：以伊宣布停火 伊朗最高国家安全委员会发表声明，宣布与 "以色列及其支持者"停火。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡也发表 声明称，接受美国总统特朗普提出的停火协议。美联储主席鲍威尔在国会证词中表示，美联储目前处于 有利位置，不排除关税对通胀的影响可能没有预期大，不排除提前降息的可能。国新办举行新闻发布会 介绍，9月3日上午，北京天安门广场将举行纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年大 会，包括检阅部队。央行公告称，将于6月25日开展3000亿元MLF操作。本月MLF净投放达到1180亿 元，为连续第4个月加量续作。海外美股上涨，美债收益率回落，国内夜盘原油能化、黑色板块下跌。 重点品种：原油、铜、集运欧线 原油：夜盘油价下跌 9%以上。美国总统特朗普在Truth Social上表示，以色列和伊朗已完全达成一致， 将会有一个完全和彻底的停火。（从现在开始大约6个小时，当以色列和伊朗已经结束并完成他们正在 进行的最后任务！）在12小时后，战争将被视为结束。受此影响地缘风险溢价大幅挤出市场。俄罗斯表 示，全球主要石油生产商组成的OPEC+集团可能将增产计划较原定时间提前约一年实现。 铜：夜盘铜价收低。目前精 ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant decline due to the de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, with prices dropping over 8% in a single day, effectively reversing gains made since June 13 [1][2][3] Oil Price Movement - On June 23, international oil prices fell sharply after initial increases due to heightened geopolitical risks, with WTI crude oil futures dropping by $6.61 to $67.23 per barrel (down 8.95%) and Brent crude oil futures falling by $6.36 to $70.65 per barrel (down 8.26%) [2] - Following the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, oil prices continued to decline, nearly erasing all gains from the previous weeks [1][3] Impact on Oil and Shipping Stocks - The oil and shipping sectors in the A-share market faced significant losses on June 24, with companies like Shandong Molong and Tongyuan Petroleum hitting their daily limit down [1][4] - Prior to the decline, oil-related stocks had surged, with Shandong Molong experiencing a nearly 95.44% increase from June 13 to June 23 [4] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the easing of geopolitical tensions will shift market focus back to fundamental and macroeconomic drivers, with expectations of oil prices stabilizing in the $60-$65 per barrel range for Q3, but facing potential downward pressure in Q4 [6] - The market is also influenced by OPEC's continued production increases and macroeconomic factors such as U.S. tariff policies and inflation risks [6]