现货黄金首次突破5000美元/盎司，日内涨0.5%。现货白银盘初再创新高，现报104.76美元/盎司，涨幅超1%。 2026年伊始，全球金融市场见证了一项历史性纪录的诞生。1月26日，现货黄金价格冲高，首次突破5000美元/ 盎司的关键心理整数关口。 对于本轮黄金价格的大幅上涨，独立财经评论员赵欢向21快讯记者分析，各国央行的战略性资产配置需求是本 轮黄金上涨的核心支撑。此外，美联储处在降息周期，意味着持有美元资产的吸引力下降，而黄金作为"无利 息资产"的机会成本变低。 事实上，当前全球央行正在掀起新一轮购金热潮。中国人民银行官方储备资产数据显示，截至2025年12月末， 我国黄金储备为7415万盎司，当月增持3万盎司。值得注意的是，这已是央行自2024年11月以来，连续第14个 月增持黄金。这一趋势也为市场注入了长期信心。 购金意愿强劲，为应对不确定性将强化黄金储备；其三，美联储降息周期延续，劳动力市场降温与通胀可控为 宽松提供支撑；其四，特朗普政府对国际秩序的扰动加剧地缘风险，推动避险需求攀升。 瞿瑞、白雪认为，尽管美欧围绕格陵兰岛的争端有所降温，但特朗普威胁对抛售美资产的欧洲实施"重大报复 行动"，"短 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks are easing but still pose concerns. Gold prices are approaching the $5000 mark. The U.S. economy shows strength, but geopolitical uncertainties and potential changes in the Fed chairperson may affect market sentiment. Different commodities are expected to have various trends based on their respective fundamentals and macro - economic factors [2][4]. - In the domestic market, there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year, which will promote the stable development of the capital market. The A - share market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The Q3 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly final value was slightly revised up to 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years, supported by strong exports, reduced inventory drag, and consumer resilience. The core PCE inflation remained at 2.9%, still above the Fed's 2% target. The 11 - month PCE price index was in line with market expectations, and the market priced the next interest rate cut in June. Geopolitical tensions have eased temporarily, but long - term concerns remain. The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.3, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield was basically flat, and gold and silver reached new highs while copper and oil prices declined [2]. - Domestic: There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The A - share market closed higher with a slight increase in trading volume. The market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $4900 for the first time, closing up 2.09% at $4938.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up 3.86% at $96.22 per ounce. Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties have increased the demand for hedging, pushing up precious metal prices. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks and concerns about the independence of the Fed are expected to keep gold and silver prices strong [4][5]. Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, and LME copper rebounded slightly. The spot market trading was poor, and the inventory increased. The Q3 2025 U.S. GDP growth rate was revised up, and geopolitical risks led to an increase in global risk - aversion sentiment. Rio Tinto's Q4 production increased by 5% year - on - year. It is expected that copper prices will enter a weak oscillation in the short term, but the downside adjustment space may be limited [6][7]. Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24055 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The LME closed at $3137.5 per ton, up 0.64%. The U.S. economic data was mixed, and the geopolitical tension in Greenland eased. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly this week, but the de - stocking is expected to be difficult to continue with the arrival of the off - season. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate [8][9]. Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closed at 2717 yuan/ton, up 1.8%. Overseas and domestic news has led to a rebound in alumina futures prices, but the actual supply impact is limited, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the rebound of alumina prices will not last, and it will mainly oscillate at a low level [10]. Cast Aluminum - The main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22855 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The consumption improvement of cast aluminum is limited, the cost decline is limited, and the supply - side start - up is stable at a low level. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and it is expected to remain oscillating [11]. Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated horizontally during the day and strengthened at night, and LME zinc closed up. The U.S. economic performance is strong, the inflation meets expectations, and the dollar falls, boosting zinc prices. The inventory decreased slightly this week, and the global zinc ore supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [12][13]. Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night, and LME lead oscillated. After the decline of lead prices slowed down, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm improved, and some enterprises started pre - holiday stockpiling. Environmental protection control in Shandong and Hebei has restricted the production of some enterprises, and the supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate stably, but the upward driving force is not strong for now [14][15]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rose during the day and strengthened at night, and LME tin oscillated horizontally. Geopolitical concerns have dissipated, and the U.S. economic data is strong, boosting risk appetite. The terminal order demand is sluggish, the downstream purchasing willingness is not strong, and the supply has no new changes. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. Steel and Iron Products - **Screw and Coil**: Steel futures oscillated. Affected by seasonal demand, market trading weakened. The output of five major steel products was stable, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory gradually increased. It is expected that steel prices will mainly oscillate [17]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures oscillated. The central bank signaled monetary easing, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The supply is still at a high level, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The pre - holiday restocking expectation provides some support, and it is expected that the futures price will oscillate [18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The spot market sentiment was weak and stable. The supply of upstream coal mines continued to resume production, and the demand of downstream steel mills was weak. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate weakly [19]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal 05 contract closed up 1.50%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract closed up 1.21%. Brazil's soybean production, export, and crushing volume are expected to increase. The precipitation in central Brazil may affect the harvest, and the drought in Argentina has led to increased speculation. It is expected that the soybean meal will oscillate and rebound in the short term [20][21]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil 05 contract closed up 1.59%. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in January, but the U.S. biodiesel policy expectation and the improvement of palm oil export and production contraction support the price. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate strongly in the short term [22].

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 01 月 26 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 虽然格陵兰岛风波有所降温但媒体报道美国筹划对古巴和伊朗动手，美元指 数偏弱回落提振贵金属的计价货币因素，而且国际投行高盛将 2026 年黄金目标价 提升至 5400 美元/盎司，贵金属板块在短期回落之后再次集体冲高，伦敦黄金逼 近 5000 美元/盎司大关。我们认为 2025 年 12 月底的回调已经充分释放贵金属内 部积累的调整风险，总体看在国际政经格局重组、美联储宽松货币政策、全球经 济增长前景改善以及银铂对金饰替代需求等因素影响下，20 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The US economy shows strong internal momentum with a 0.3% month-on-month increase in personal consumption expenditures adjusted for inflation in November 2025, marking the highest growth rate since the second half of 2025 [2] - In Europe, inflation dropped below 2% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating easing pressure, supported by labor costs and year-end consumption [3] - Domestic economic growth in China for 2025 is expected to meet targets despite a slowdown in the fourth quarter, with net exports providing structural support in early 2026 [3] Fixed Income Research - The bond market continues to show signs of recovery, with mid- to long-term bonds performing well, driven by a strong equity market and manageable bank liability pressures [5][7] - The issuance of special bonds increased significantly, with a total of 56 bonds issued, amounting to 619.1 billion yuan during the reporting period [7] - The overall bond market is characterized by a recovery trend, with the yield on 7-year government bonds declining the most [7] Industry Research - Nine departments in China have issued opinions to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail industry, indicating potential benefits for leading chain pharmacies and an expected operational turning point [10][12] - The SW pharmaceutical industry index shows a price-to-earnings ratio of 52.01, with a valuation premium of 266% relative to the CSI 300 index [11] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in innovative drugs, CXO, and upstream life sciences, while also monitoring segments like small nucleic acids [12]

瞿瑞、白雪认为，尽管美欧围绕格陵兰岛的争端有所降温，但特朗普威胁对抛售美资产的欧洲实施"重 大报复行动"，"短期地缘风险或持续反复，格陵兰岛问题未完全解决，伊朗局势可能添新变数，市场谨 慎情绪推高黄金需求。" 展望后市，黄金长期上涨趋势获机构普遍看好。 高盛在最新报告中，将黄金今年底目标价从每盎司4900美元上调至5400美元，理由是私人部门投资者和 中央银行对黄金的需求不断增长。高盛分析师预计，各国央行今年每月将购买60吨黄金，同时随着美联 储降息，黄金ETF的持有量也将增加。各国央行已开始通过传统的ETF，与私人部门投资者争夺有限的 黄金。 （原标题：新的历史纪录！黄金价格突破5000美元 机构看多到6600美元） 现货黄金首次突破5000美元/盎司，日内涨0.5%。现货白银盘初再创新高，现报104.76美元/盎司，涨幅 超1%。 2026年伊始，全球金融市场见证了一项历史性纪录的诞生。1月26日，现货黄金价格冲高，首次突破 5000美元/盎司的关键心理整数关口。 对于本轮黄金价格的大幅上涨，独立财经评论员赵欢向21快讯记者分析，各国央行的战略性资产配置需 求是本轮黄金上涨的核心支撑。此外，美联储处在降息 ...

具体走势上，金价自周初高开于4615.41美元/盎司，并先行录得当周低点4615.08美元，之后连续反弹走强拉升，于周二突破趋势线阻力打开进一步上行空 间，中途虽有短暂回落调整，但最终多头仍占据主导，延续至周五时段触及4989.34美元历史高点，并持稳收于4982.08美元，相对于前周收盘价4594.07美 元，周振幅395.27美元，收涨388.01美元，涨幅8.45%。 影响上，周初受美国总统特朗普在格陵兰岛争端中对多个欧洲国家发出加征关税警告所激发的避险需求推动和持续推动，提振金价高开高走，于周二突破 关键阻力； 虽周三周四因特朗普淡化对格陵兰岛和伊朗的威胁，以及撤回关税威胁，几度打压金价回撤，但最终由于特朗普又警告称，若欧洲抛售美国资产，将采 取"重大报复"等等，再度增强了市场避险需求，以及加大了市场的不确定性，并市场对美联储将在今年下半年进行两次降息的预期共同推动；令金价重获 吸引力，并继续走强持稳收涨。 展望本周周一(1月26日)：国际黄金高开至5005.58美元/盎司后继续走强，如期验证去年就说道的2026年金价将最少触及5000美元的观点。其美元指数低开 走弱，IMF表示美元全球外汇储备占比跌 ...

周一开盘，黄金，再度爆发。 现货白银也直线拉涨，截至发稿涨逾1.4%。 消息面上，中东局势持续升温。 以色列国防军北方司令部司令拉菲·米洛表示，鉴于地区紧张局势持续升温，以军正为美国可能对伊朗 采取军事行动后引发的连锁反应做准备，并已进入高度戒备状态。 米洛表示，美国近期在波斯湾及中东多地加强军事部署，以军正密切关注局势发展。他指出，如果美国 决定对伊朗发动打击，伊朗的部分回应行动可能波及以色列，以军已为此做好准备。 土耳其外交部长费丹在接受媒体采访时明确警告外部势力不要试图在伊朗推动"政权更迭"。 费丹表示，土方密切关注近期伊朗国内局势，他认为目前的事态并不会导致伊朗政权更迭。费丹在采访 中直接向美方喊话称："建议我的美国朋友们，不要让伊朗变成另一个'委内瑞拉'。" 此外，当地时间1月25日，伊朗议会国家安全与外交政策委员会成员穆赫辛尼·萨尼在接受采访时表示， 针对敌方当前的军事部署，伊朗武装力量已进入全面戒备状态。 责编：彭勃 责任编辑：王珂 早间，现货黄金直线高开，截至发稿突破5000美元，为史上首次。 周一开盘，黄金，再度爆发。 早间，现货黄金直线高开，截至发稿突破5000美元，为史上首次。 现货白银 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market witnessed a historic milestone as spot gold prices surpassed $5000 per ounce for the first time on January 26, 2026, driven by strategic asset allocation by central banks and a declining attractiveness of dollar assets due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Spot gold prices reached a high of $5020.440 per ounce, reflecting a 0.78% increase from previous levels [2]. - The surge in gold prices is primarily supported by central banks' strategic asset allocation needs, as the attractiveness of holding dollar assets diminishes during the Fed's rate-cutting cycle [2][3]. Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks are entering a new gold-buying spree, with China's gold reserves reported at 74.15 million ounces as of December 2025, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases [3]. - This trend is expected to instill long-term confidence in the market as central banks continue to bolster their gold reserves [3]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - Strong expectations for Fed rate cuts persist, with Goldman Sachs predicting a potential cut exceeding market expectations due to deteriorating employment conditions and rising unemployment rates [4]. - Geopolitical risks, including tensions surrounding Greenland and the situation in Iran, are contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price target from $4900 to $5400 per ounce, citing growing demand from both private investors and central banks [4]. - The market anticipates that central banks will purchase approximately 60 tons of gold monthly, with increased holdings in gold ETFs as a result of the Fed's rate cuts [4]. Group 5: Investment Risks and Opportunities - While there may be short-term technical pullback risks for gold prices, the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical risks, central bank purchasing behavior, and the continuation of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the price of gold could increase between 10% and 35% in 2026, with some forecasts reaching as high as $6600 per ounce [7].

记者丨李益文,毕凤至 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | 5020 284 F-5 4981.309 品量 | | | | | 0 | | +38.975 +0.78% 开盘 | 4988.170 现手 | | | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 5020.440 持 仓 0 | | | 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4988.170 0 | 壇 仓 | | 内 盘 | | O | | 关时 | 五日 日K | | 周Ｋ 月Ｋ | | 更多 ◎ | | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 5020.440 | | | | | 0.79% 卖一 5020.824 | | | | | | | | 头一 5020.284 | | | | | | | | 7:01 5020.060 7:01 5019.780 | 0 0 | | 4981.309 | | | | 0.00% | 7:01 5020.120 | ...

记者丨李益文,毕凤至 编辑丨叶映橙 设计丨李基礼 2026年伊始，全球金融市场见证了一项历史性纪录的诞生。1月26日，现货黄金价格冲高，首次突破5000美元/盎司的关键心理整数关口。 对于本轮黄金价格的大幅上涨，独立财经评论员赵欢向21快讯记者分析， 各国央行的战略性资产配置需求是本轮黄金上涨的核心支撑 。此 外，美联储处在降息周期，意味着持有美元资产的吸引力下降，而黄金作为"无利息资产"的机会成本变低。 事实上，当前全球央行正在掀起新一轮购金热潮。中国人民银行官方储备资产数据显示，截至2025年12月末， 我国黄金储备为7415万盎司， 当月增持3万盎司。 值得注意的是，这已是央行自2024年11月以来，连续第14个月增持黄金。这一趋势也为市场注入了长期信心。 当前市场对美联储的降息预期依旧强劲。高盛曾预计，受美国就业市场持续恶化、失业率上升、薪资增速放缓及企业对经济前景悲观等因素影 响，美联储2026年降息幅度可能超过市场普遍预期，经济所需宽松力度高于当前定价。 华西证券最新研报预测，2026年金价涨幅或介于10%—35%区间，而杰富瑞集团更是喊出6600美元/盎司的惊人目标。 高盛在最新报告中，将黄金今 ...