沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场， 但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。特朗普在首个总统任期内提名鲍威尔为美联储主 席。当时，鲍威尔与沃什均为特朗普考虑的人选，但鲍威尔最终获得提名。 鲍威尔将于今年5月结束美联储主席任期。他虽然是特朗普任命的，但却因货币政策长期遭特朗普公开 指责。去年再度就任美国总统后，特朗普曾多次尝试干涉美联储货币政策决议。鲍威尔目前还因美联储 办公大楼翻修项目遭刑事调查。 央视新闻 美国总统特朗普30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需获得参议院批准。 本期编辑 邢潭 凯文·沃什（资料图） ...

55岁的凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh），很可能接棒成为新一任美联储主席。目前，现任美联储主席鲍威尔还因美联储办公大楼翻修项目遭刑事调查。 美东时间2026年1月30日，美国总统特朗普宣布，将任命前美联储理事凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔，出任新一任美联储主席。 目前，这项任命尚需美国国会参议院确认。 凯文·沃什，1970年出生于美国纽约州北部，哈佛大学法学博士，现任斯坦福大学胡佛研究所谢泼德家族访问研究员。曾任职于摩根士丹利纽约并购部， 2002至2006年任总统经济政策特别助理及白宫国家经济委员会执行秘书。2024年11月，特朗普考虑提名沃什出任财政部长并与其讨论相关事宜。 凯文·沃什于2006年2月至2011年3月担任美联储理事，曾是最年轻的美联储理事，负责二十国集团会议事务及理事会运营管理 。2017年曾参与美联储主席角 逐但未被提名。2025年4月在三十国集团会议上公开批评美联储未能抑制通胀，质疑其货币政策与资产负债表扩张加剧财政风险。同年11月通过白宫第二轮 面试进入最终五人名单，12月特朗普表示沃什是头号候选人并与其会面讨论降息政策。摩根大通CEO戴蒙多次公开支持凯文·沃什接任。 在美联储任职期间，凯 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have significantly declined, with gold dropping over 7% to below $5000 and silver falling over 15% to below $100 [1] - Current prices for precious metals include London gold at $4994.769 (-7.11% YTD) and London silver at $98.344 (-15.12% YTD) [2] - Domestic futures for gold and silver also saw declines, with SHFE gold at 1132.52 CNY (-5.38% YTD) and SHFE silver at 25780 CNY (-13.83% YTD) [2] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - Major U.S. stock indices experienced collective declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.36%, Nasdaq down 0.50%, and S&P 500 down 0.39% [3] - Specific sectors such as cruise lines, solar energy, and lithium battery stocks faced the largest drops, with the cruise index down 5.20% and the solar index down 4.62% [4] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell over 1%, indicating a broad decline in Chinese concept stocks [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership - President Trump nominated Kevin Walsh, a former Fed governor, as the next Federal Reserve Chair, raising concerns about monetary policy direction and Fed independence [4] - Walsh is known for his hawkish stance during his tenure but has shifted to support Trump's tariff policies and a quicker rate cut approach [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Fed are projected to be between 50 to 100 basis points over the next year [4]

中新经纬1月30日电 (宋亚芬)30日，美国总统特朗普提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。该 消息发布后，市场迅速聚焦其货币政策取向及美联储独立性问题。 上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教授胡捷在接受中新经纬采访时表示，若仅从其客观政策观点出发，而 不引入政治因素推断，沃什在未来一年内大概率支持降息，且相较其他更强硬的鹰派，其认可的降息幅 度可能相对较大。 "一方面，美联储主席的提名必须通过参议院听证和投票程序，如果候选人在专业性或独立性方面存在 明显问题，很难获得通过；另一方面，美联储本身的制度设计决定了其决策并非由个人意志主导。"胡 捷说。 从具体运行机制来看，美联储主席只是联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)19名委员之一，而该委员会中拥有 投票权的委员为12人。只有一票投票权的主席，虽在沟通和协调中具备一定影响力，但并不意味着其个 人偏好可以直接决定货币政策方向。 胡捷指出，FOMC的决策仍将围绕通胀率与失业率两大核心目标展开，政策制定最终需要回归经济数据 和既定目标框架，而非个人立场。在具体政策空间上，他认为，结合当前通胀与就业数据，市场对未来 一年降息幅度的预期大致集中在50个基点至100个基点之间 ...

Group 1 - Kevin Walsh has been preparing for his role as Federal Reserve Chair for over a decade, having been considered a top candidate in 2017 but ultimately passed over for Jerome Powell due to concerns about his youth and hawkish monetary policy stance [2] - Trump has publicly endorsed Walsh, stating he will be one of the greatest chairs in Federal Reserve history and is the "perfect choice" [3] - Walsh has a strong background in economic policy, having previously served as a Federal Reserve Governor and played a crucial role during the 2008-2009 financial crisis [3][5] Group 2 - Walsh's economic policy focus has shifted towards high inflation rather than weak economic growth, expressing concerns about low interest rates and high fiscal deficits leading to inflation, although these concerns have not materialized [5] - He aims to reform the Federal Reserve's $6.6 trillion asset portfolio, advocating for a new agreement with the Treasury to reduce the Fed's influence in the money market [7] - Walsh has been critical of Powell's performance, which may lead to skepticism from Federal Reserve staff regarding his commitment to the institution's independence [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, nominated by Donald Trump for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman, is known for his conservative stance on interest rate policy but is not consistently labeled as a hardline hawk in monetary policy [1][4]. Group 1: Warsh's Background and Policy Stance - Warsh gained prominence for his hawkish stance during his tenure as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, particularly emphasizing inflation concerns just days before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 [1][4]. - Despite his initial skepticism during the financial crisis, Warsh ultimately supported interest rate cuts, demonstrating flexibility in his policy positions [1][4]. - In 2018, Warsh co-authored an article advocating against immediate interest rate hikes, which the Federal Reserve later reversed following a market downturn [2][5]. Group 2: Challenges and Economic Perspectives - If confirmed by the Senate, one of Warsh's significant challenges will be balancing economic growth driven by artificial intelligence with inflation control [2][5]. - Warsh maintains an open attitude towards the monetary policy approach of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, believing that economic growth can occur without triggering inflation [2][5]. - His connections in Silicon Valley, developed during his time as a researcher at Stanford University, are expected to provide insights into the potential and risks of technological advancements [2][5]. Group 3: Influence and Relationships - Stanley Druckenmiller, a billionaire investor and Warsh's long-time mentor, has established a direct communication channel with key economic policymakers, including Treasury Secretary Scott Benset, who shares similar views on the impact of AI on productivity and inflation [3][6]. - Druckenmiller's influence has positioned Warsh as one of Wall Street's most impactful economic thinkers, shaping the economic policy perspectives of both Benset and Warsh [3][6]. - The collaboration between Warsh and Benset is viewed as an ideal scenario, fostering consensus between the Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve Chairman [7].

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump has officially nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, marking a significant personnel decision in Trump's second term aimed at increasing influence over the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Nomination Details - Kevin Warsh, currently a visiting fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, is a seasoned figure in the Republican economic circle and has previously served as a Federal Reserve governor [1][2]. - Trump's announcement on social media expressed confidence in Warsh's potential to be one of the greatest Fed chairs in history, highlighting his strong character [1][2]. - Other potential candidates for the Fed chair position included Rick Reed from BlackRock, Trump's long-time economic advisor Kevin Hassett, and current Fed governor Christopher Waller [1]. Group 2: Political Context and Challenges - Warsh's nomination represents a phase in Trump's efforts to strengthen his influence over the Federal Reserve, but he will face significant political obstacles in the coming months [2][8]. - Trump has consistently advocated for substantial interest rate cuts and expects loyalty from the Fed chair he appoints, which raises questions about Warsh's ability to navigate these expectations [2][8]. - The Senate's core Republican members have increasingly defended the Fed's political independence, especially following a criminal investigation initiated by the Trump administration regarding Powell's testimony about high renovation costs at the Fed [2][8]. Group 3: Warsh's Economic Views - Warsh is known for his hawkish stance on inflation risks, which contrasts with Trump's calls for lower interest rates [3][9]. - Despite his hawkish reputation, Warsh has recently suggested that Powell should have lowered short-term interest rates to benefit consumers and proposed that rate cuts could coincide with reducing the Fed's substantial holdings of U.S. Treasury securities [9]. - Warsh has criticized the Fed's economic policies, claiming they have hindered potential economic growth, and has called for a reduction in interest rates and the Fed's balance sheet size [9][10]. Group 4: Historical Background and Influence - Warsh was a key figure during the Fed's response to the 2008 global financial crisis and has been vocal about the need for the Fed to maintain its independence [4][10]. - He has previously expressed concerns about the Fed's large-scale asset purchases and their impact on long-term interest rates, indicating a complex relationship with past Fed policies [10][11]. - Warsh has proposed a redefinition of the Treasury-Fed agreement to clarify the Fed's balance sheet goals, emphasizing the need for clear communication between the Treasury Secretary and the Fed Chair [11].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve official, to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, aligning with Trump's critical stance on the Fed's current policies [1][2]. Group 1: Nomination Details - Warsh served as a Federal Reserve governor from 2006 to 2011 and played a key role during the financial crisis [1]. - Trump's decision marks the conclusion of months of internal discussions regarding the Fed chair nomination, which is considered one of the most significant personnel decisions of his presidency [1]. - Warsh's nomination requires Senate approval, and he is expected to face scrutiny due to an ongoing investigation by the Department of Justice regarding the Fed [2]. Group 2: Economic Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve is currently divided on whether to lower interest rates further, with some officials arguing that inflation remains above the 2% target [1][2]. - Warsh has previously been labeled as "hawkish" due to his warnings about loose monetary policy leading to higher prices [1]. - Trump has expressed a desire for the Fed to lower interest rates, having previously criticized current Chairman Powell for not meeting his expectations [2][3]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead - Warsh will face unprecedented challenges, including managing inflation that has exceeded targets for several years, addressing tariff-related price increases, and evaluating the impact of artificial intelligence on productivity and the labor market [2]. - The potential rise of digital currencies poses additional challenges for the Fed, which is responsible for regulating the U.S. banking system [2]. Group 4: Historical Context - This leadership change at the Fed could be one of the most significant since Paul Volcker's appointment in 1979, which transformed the Fed's anti-inflation strategy [4]. - Warsh has committed to a complete break from previous policies, indicating a potential overhaul of the Fed's asset holdings, policy framework, and its role in the economy [4][5]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Warsh's nomination came after he outperformed other candidates, including Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder, all of whom were considered strong contenders for the position [5][6]. - Trump confirmed that Hassett will remain as the Director of the National Economic Council, emphasizing his value to the administration [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report maintains a bullish view on the precious metals market, expecting an optimistic path for interest rate cuts. However, it suggests short - term investors to wait and watch due to uncertainties in US platinum tariffs and the actual nomination of the Fed Chairman, and to look for buying opportunities after price stabilization [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On January 30, 2026, due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the decline of market sentiment, platinum and palladium futures contracts on GFEX tumbled. The platinum main contract dropped 8.79% to 657 yuan per gram, and the palladium main contract dropped 7.25% to 48.85 yuan per gram. The change in market expectations due to the possible appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman led to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar, suppressing precious metal prices. Also, OME's increase in margin requirements cooled market sentiment [3] Fundamental Situation - Supply: In 2026, major platinum and palladium mining companies are expected to maintain stable production with output recovery, but overall production is limited due to few new project launches. Global platinum mine and refined production are expected to rise 2.8% and 4.8% to 173.6 tons and 228.2 tons respectively, and palladium mine and refined production are expected to rise 0.3% and 2.2% to 198.9 tons and 209.4 tons respectively. Attention should be paid to short - term supply risks caused by bad weather, labor disputes, and power shortages [4] - Demand: In 2026, global economic recovery will drive the continued recovery of platinum industrial demand and an upward trend in jewelry demand, offsetting the decline in automotive catalyst demand. Platinum investment demand may be stimulated by price fluctuations and domestic futures listing, with an expected 0.7% increase to 266.1 tons. Palladium demand is under significant downward pressure, with an expected 1.7% decline to 282.4 tons [4] - Supply - demand balance: In 2026, there will be a 37.9 - ton shortage in the global platinum market and a 16.9 - ton surplus in the palladium market [4] Summary and Strategy - The short - term geopolitical tension remains unresolved, and the market expects Trump's influence on the Fed to increase. The report maintains a bullish view but suggests short - term investors to wait and watch due to uncertainties and look for buying opportunities after price stabilization [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggests that monetary policy should be closer to a neutral level, which is estimated to be around 3% [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The current interest rate range is between 3.50% and 3.75%, indicating that it is above the suggested neutral level [1]