Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight weakness with all government bond futures closing down, while the interbank bond yield exhibited mixed trends, indicating a cautious outlook ahead of the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.07% at 112.17, the 10-year main contract down 0.05% at 108.15, the 5-year main contract down 0.04% at 105.835, and the 2-year main contract down 0.02% at 102.408 [2]. - The interbank bond yield showed slight divergence, with the 30-year government bond yield down 0.45 basis points (bps) to 2.2565%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.05 bps to 1.834% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 10-year yield down 5.16 bps to 4.241% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese government bond yields continued to decline, with the 10-year yield down 2.3 bps to 2.266% [3]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds increased, with French bonds up 1.7 bps to 3.541% [3]. Primary Market - The Export-Import Bank's financial bonds had a bid yield of 1.4226% for the 1.2521-year and 1.7028% for the 5.5041-year, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.63 and 6.74 respectively [4]. - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had a bid yield of 1.6683% for the 3-year and 1.8772% for the 7-year, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.85 and 3.83 respectively [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a total amount of 2102 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 309 billion yuan for the day [5]. - The Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate rising by 9.1 bps to 1.413% [5]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities suggests maintaining a configuration of medium to short-term credit bonds, with a focus on leveraging opportunities in the ultra-long end and government bonds [6]. - CITIC Securities notes that the central bank's balance sheet has expanded steadily, indicating a potential for government bond trading to influence yields [7]. - Guosheng Fixed Income emphasizes that current inflation is not indicative of a broad price increase, suggesting that monetary policy may remain stable or undergo minor adjustments [7].

融资景气度保持平稳 分维度来看，12月，融资景气度指数为54.82点，较11月下降0.01点。信贷规模持续增长，融资成本 维持在历史低位，信贷结构优化趋势显著。中国人民银行数据显示，2025年全年新增贷款16.27万亿 元，适度宽松的货币政策发力显效，企业和居民有效信贷需求持续释放。其中，企（事）业单位贷款新 增15.47万亿元，金融服务精准对接了企业需求，科技、绿色、普惠、养老产业和数字经济产业等重点 领域贷款都保持了两位数增长。 经营景气度温和回升 12月，经营景气度指数为48.44点，较11月上升0.16点。12月制造业PMI、非制造业PMI、综合PMI 均升至扩张区间，市场主体经营活力增强，为上下游小微企业带来订单增量。同时，12月全国居民消费 价格指数同比上涨0.8%，一定程度上改善了企业的盈利预期，提振了市场信心。在政策红利持续释放 与市场内生动力逐步修复的双重驱动下，小微企业的经营韧性正逐步增强。 行业景气度：九大行业6升3降 2025年12月，普惠金融-景气指数达49.48点，较11月上升0.12点，高于去年同期0.61点。融资端政 策效能持续释放，金融支持精准有效，信贷规模稳步增长，为小微企 ...

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China is expected to implement two interest rate cuts in 2026, each by 10 basis points, with room for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates [3][4] - The average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions is currently 6.3%, indicating potential for a reduction [3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to increase from 11% of GDP in 2025 to 12.2% in 2026, with overall spending expected to increase in key areas [3][4] - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes that the total scale of fiscal deficits, debt, and expenditures will be maintained at necessary levels to ensure spending does not decrease [4] Economic Growth - China's exports are anticipated to remain strong in 2026, driven by global economic growth, expansion into emerging markets, and China's competitive product strength [5] - In 2025, China's total foreign trade reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase year-on-year, maintaining its position as the world's largest goods trader [4][5] Investment Outlook - Investment performance in 2026 is expected to improve compared to 2025, with significant projects in technology, AI, and power grids likely to accelerate [5] Consumer Trends - Consumption is expected to show structural differentiation, with service consumption growth outpacing that of goods consumption in 2026 [6]

1月22日，日本央行预计将在周四开始的为期两天的政策委员会会议上维持利率不变，尽管日本国债价 格仍不稳定，日元也持续走弱。 责任编辑：栎树 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 三菱日联首席经济学家Shinichiro Kobayashi表示："货币政策变化的效果需要一段时间才能显现出来。 我认为在此次会议上没有充分的理由急于再次加息。旨在通过加息来遏制日元贬值的努力可能会助长长 期利率的上升趋势，而这一趋势目前正以相当快的速度发展。日本央行有可能会被迫提高利率以遏制日 元的贬值趋势，不过也不能保证这样的举措会奏效。" ...

Core Insights - The Inclusive Finance Prosperity Index reached 49.48 points in December 2025, an increase of 0.12 points from November and 0.61 points higher than the same period last year, indicating a stable financial support for small and micro enterprises [1] Financing Dimension - The financing prosperity index stood at 54.82 points in December, a slight decrease of 0.01 points from November, with continuous growth in credit scale and historically low financing costs [2] - In 2025, new loans totaled 16.27 trillion yuan, with corporate loans accounting for 15.47 trillion yuan, reflecting effective credit demand from enterprises and residents [2] Operating Dimension - The operating prosperity index increased to 48.44 points in December, up by 0.16 points from November, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs indicating expansion [3] - The consumer price index rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December, improving corporate profit expectations and boosting market confidence [3] Industry Prosperity - Among nine major industries, six showed an increase in operating prosperity, particularly in agriculture and transportation due to seasonal demand, while three industries experienced a decline [6] - The real estate sector showed some improvement, while industrial, construction, and wholesale retail sectors saw a decrease in operating prosperity [6] Regional Prosperity - Among seven regions, three experienced an increase in operating prosperity, specifically Northeast, South China, and Southwest regions, while four regions saw a decline [7] - The indices for North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest regions were lower, indicating regional disparities in economic performance [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, influenced by factors such as the stock market, policy signals from the Politburo meeting, unchanged LPR, Fed rate - cut expectations, and global trade uncertainties. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Index**: China's monthly CPI has a 0.20% month - on - month increase and 0.80% year - on - year increase; monthly PPI has a 0.20% month - on - month increase and - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [8] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a 2.05 - trillion - yuan increase and 0.47% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.50%, with a 0.50% increase and 6.25% growth rate; manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, with a 0.90% increase and 1.83% growth rate [9] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 98.78, with a 0.23 increase and 0.23% growth rate; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9586, with a 0.002 decrease and - 0.03% growth rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.49, with a 0.01 increase and 0.34% growth rate, etc. [10] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: On January 21, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.43 yuan, 105.88 yuan, 108.20 yuan, and 112.25 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of - 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.03%, and 0.75% [3] - **Net Basis Spread**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL are - 0.014 yuan, - 0.022 yuan, - 0.039 yuan, and - 0.970 yuan respectively [3] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 21, 2026, the central bank conducted 363.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate of 1.4% [2] - **Repo Rates**: The main term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.322%, 1.488%, 1.597%, and 1.559% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [2] IV. Spread Overview - **Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads**: There are various inter - period spreads of treasury bond futures and inter - variety spreads between spot bonds and futures, such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc. [30][32] V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Related Rates**: The relationship between the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the TS main contract IRR and the funding rate are presented [41] - **Basis Spread**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract are shown [43] VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Related Rates**: The relationship between the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the TF main contract IRR and the funding rate are presented [45] - **Basis Spread**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract are shown [52] VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Related Rates**: The relationship between the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the T main contract IRR and the funding rate are presented [51] - **Basis Spread**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract are shown [51] VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Related Rates**: The relationship between the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the TL main contract IRR and the funding rate are presented [56] - **Basis Spread**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract are shown [61]

氧化铝少量检修压产过剩格局不改 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23710元/吨，较上一交易日变化30元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-150元/吨， 较上一交易日变化10元/吨；中原A00铝价23610元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化30元/吨至-250元/吨；佛 山A00铝价录23740元/吨，较上一交易日变化20元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-115元/吨。 铝期货方面：2026-01-21日沪铝主力合约开于23965元/吨，收于24155元/吨，较上一交易日变化135元/吨，最 高价达24250元/吨，最低价达到23660元/吨。全天交易日成交468256手，全天交易日持仓343223手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-22 库存方面，截止2026-01-21，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存74.9万吨，较上一期变化1.3万吨，仓单库存138755 吨，较上一交易日变化-1196吨，LME铝库存507175吨，较上一交易日变化24175吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-01-21SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2615元/吨，山东价格录得2560元/吨，河南价格录得 264 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The prices of Treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, with the T2603 contract rising 0.02% and its open interest increasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates also showed mixed trends. Key - term Treasury bond yields at home and abroad had different changes, and the prices of Treasury bond futures stabilized due to factors such as central bank policies and macro - economic conditions [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Yesterday's closing prices of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 were 102.430, 102.462, 105.880, 105.875, 108.200, 108.190, 112.25, and 112.36 respectively. The price changes were - 0.014, - 0.008, 0.005, - 0.005, 0.020, 0.085, 0.760, and 0.760, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.01%, - 0.01%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.02%, 0.08%, 0.68%, and 0.68%. Open interest and trading volume varied, and open - interest changes were - 1054, - 262, - 194, 2516, 1698, 2880, - 78, and 1594 respectively [2] - The cross - term spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.032, 0.005, 0.010, and - 0.110 respectively, with previous values of - 0.026, - 0.0050, 0.0750, and - 0.1100 [2] - The IRR of the active CTD bonds for each main contract was 1.5505, 1.5706, 1.6019, 1.5664, 1.6297, 1.6116, 1.9417, and 1.4765, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 0.5bp, DR007 rate fell 0.33bp, and GC007 rate fell 1.7bp [2] - Key - term Chinese Treasury bond yields also showed mixed trends. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.57bp to 1.83%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 41.78bp [2] - Overseas key - term Treasury bond yields changed. The US 10Y Treasury bond yield fell 4bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield fell 2bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield fell 5bp [2] Macro News - On January 21, the central bank conducted 363.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 122.7 billion yuan after 240.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3] - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development said that the focus in urban renewal this year is on three aspects, and efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and build basic systems [3] - The US Trade Representative expressed hope for another round of potential trade negotiations with China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded [3] - The People's Bank of China held a payment and settlement work meeting in 2026, putting forward requirements for payment and settlement work [3] - The Ministry of Finance and other three departments extended the tax policy for the pilot stage of innovative enterprise CDRs to December 31, 2027 [3] - The US President reached an agreement framework on the Greenland issue with the NATO Secretary - General, and the US stock market rose while spot silver fell [3] Industry Information - On January 21, most money - market interest rates rose. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank lending had different changes in different tenors [3] - US Treasury bond yields fell collectively, with different declines in 2 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year yields [3] Comment and Strategy - Long - term Treasury bonds rose, and the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond rose to 1.823%. The central bank's net injection of reverse repurchases, stable LPR in January, and other factors affected the market. The market risk appetite declined, US Treasury bond yields fell, and the real estate market was still in adjustment [3] - In 2025, the GDP growth target of 5% was achieved as scheduled. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed down, and the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries increased. The annual fixed - asset investment decreased year - on - year, mainly dragged down by real - estate development investment [3] - The Ministry of Finance said that the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure in 2026 would remain at necessary levels, and the central bank would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts, leading to the stabilization of Treasury bond futures prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a series of monetary policy adjustments, including lowering the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans and maintaining a loose monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize the housing market [6][15]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The PBOC has lowered the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans from 50%-60% to 30%, significantly reducing the entry barrier for purchasing commercial properties nationwide [6][7]. - The PBOC plans to lower the interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, which will help increase banks' lending capacity in key areas [9]. - The central bank aims to maintain ample liquidity and will continue to flexibly use various monetary policy tools, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions, to support economic stability [11][12][15]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Predictions - The PBOC has indicated that there is still room for further RRR and interest rate cuts in 2026, as the banking sector's net interest margin has shown signs of stabilization [10][15]. - International investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts that the PBOC may implement a "double cut" in the first quarter of 2026, which includes a 50 basis point reduction in the RRR and a 10 basis point cut in the policy interest rate [15]. - The overall expectation is that housing loan rates and personal housing provident fund loan rates will likely see further reductions in 2026, aligning with the ongoing easing measures [15]. Group 3: Housing Market Dynamics - Recent reports suggest that a subsidy policy for new home loans may be introduced, covering loans from September 2025 to August 2026, with a potential interest subsidy of 1% or 40-100 basis points [17][18]. - Some cities, like Wuhan, have already trialed interest subsidy policies, but the overall market response has been muted, indicating that the impact of such measures may be limited [20]. - New regulations in cities like Tianjin are being introduced to prevent significant price drops in new homes, with price fluctuations capped at 10% for new projects and 15% for existing ones [23][25].

根据韩国央行发布的政策声明，决策层一致通过此次利率决议。值得注意的是，声明中删除了此前"为 降息留有空间"及"决定是否以及何时实施任何进一步的基准利率下调"等表述，释放出政策立场趋于谨 慎的信号。 若内需未能有效恢复，且外部环境不确定性持续存在，韩国2026年经济增长或将面临进一步下行压力。 当前，韩国经济面临多重结构性压力。韩元汇率持续承压，金融体系风险上升；与此同时，房地产市场 热度未减，家庭债务水平仍处高位。上述因素共同压缩了政府进一步实施刺激政策的空间。 韩国央行15日宣布维持基准利率在2.50%不变。行长李昌镛在会后记者会上表示，当前货币政策需在支 持经济复苏与应对金融稳定风险之间取得平衡，并强调仅靠提高利率"无法平息房价上涨"。 新华财经北京1月22日电韩国经济在2025年第四季度出现环比收缩，凸显内需疲软对增长动能的拖累。 数据显示，2025年第四季度韩国国内生产总值（GDP）环比下降0.3%，远低于前一季度修正后的1.3% 增幅，且不及市场普遍预期的0.2%增长。 全年来看，韩国2025年实际GDP同比增长1%，与此前官方及市场预测一致。然而，数据同时揭示，此 前由扩张性财政政策和消费复苏所支 ...