英镑兑美元涨0.2%，现报1.3539。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普把钢铁和铝的进口关税从25%上调至50%，但 放了英国一马，以便两国在7月9日最后期限前敲定贸易协议。特朗普和英国首相基尔·斯塔默上个月就 关税达成了框架协议，现在双方正在谈判细节，所以更高的钢铝关税暂时不适用于英国，但是白宫保留 了适用的选项，就看特朗普对双方谈判结果是否满意了。 ...

Group 1 - The core sentiment among American farmers has risen to its highest level in four years, driven by optimism regarding potential trade agreements under the Trump administration that could boost crop exports [1] - The Purdue University and Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group's Agricultural Economic Barometer recorded a reading of 158 points, the highest since 2021, following announcements of "significant progress" in trade negotiations with China [1] - Despite the optimism, only 28% of farmers strongly agree that "free trade benefits agriculture and most other U.S. industries," a significant decline from 49% in November 2020, indicating a shift in farmers' views on trade [1] Group 2 - U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brook Rollins is actively working to increase European purchases of American products, including wheat and soybeans, emphasizing the need to enhance exports on the international stage [4] - Rollins plans to visit several countries, including Japan, Brazil, India, and Côte d'Ivoire, in the coming months to expand exports and address a trade deficit exceeding $3 billion with Peru [4] - The U.S. has reached a "massive" trade agreement with the UK, which includes quotas for American beef and the elimination of tariffs on 1.4 billion liters of ethanol [4]

英镑兑美元跌0.23%，英国商业大臣Jonathan Reynolds将与美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔会面，试图挽救 一项取消对英国钢铁出口关税的协议。该协议正面临无法落实的风险，美国将钢铝进口关税提高至50% 的措施定于周三生效。如果英美两国无法达成一项解决方案，那么两国上个月宣布的所谓经济繁荣协议 就有可能无法实现其关键组成部分之一。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和英国首相基尔·斯塔默将该协议作为 一项降低关税的贸易协议来宣传，但到目前为止，该协议尚未落实。 ...

英国首相发言人：商业大臣将与美国贸易代表格里尔讨论贸易协议。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The increase in Malaysia's biodiesel blending ratio in transport vehicles and the rainfall in the US soybean - growing areas may impact the market. The MPOB April report on Malaysian palm oil is bearish, while the USDA May report on US soybeans is bullish. [7][18] - Attention should be paid to the subsequent production and export changes of Malaysian palm oil and the impact on the inventory - building rhythm, as well as the impact of US weather on soybean production. [18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight quotes for commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, and related products, as well as currency quotes including the US dollar index and various exchange rates, are presented, along with their price changes. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 08 (BMD) is 3903.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.87% and an overnight decline of - 0.76%. [1] 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for futures contracts such as DCE palm oil 2505, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in East China is 8620, with a basis of 450 and a basis change of 0. [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook (June 3 - 7) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperature and precipitation are close to or higher than normal levels in most areas. The Midwest has more rainfall, which is beneficial for sown areas, but may affect sowing in some southern regions. [3][6] - Policy and Market News - Malaysia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio in transport vehicles from B10 to B20. Indonesia has implemented a B40 mandatory blending plan and is considering raising it to B50. [7] - An EU anti - deforestation law will impose new import restrictions. Four countries are classified as "high - risk" and major palm - oil producing countries are "standard - risk", with different compliance inspection rates. [8] - Export and Inventory Data - Market expectations for US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are given. Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 10.36% to 16.01 tons in the week ending May 25, but increased by 59.29% year - on - year from August 1, 2024, to May 25, 2025. As of May 25, the commercial inventory was 91.99 tons. [8][9] - Domestic Supply and Demand - On May 29, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 1026% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major oil mills increased, and the overall oil mill startup rate was 63.44%, up 0.75% from the previous day. [11] 04 Macro - economic News - International News - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June is 96.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 3.8%. US economic data such as initial jobless claims, GDP, and the existing home sales index are released. [13] - There are developments regarding US tariffs and trade agreements, including a federal court's suspension of a tariff - related ruling. [14] - Domestic News - The central bank conducted 2660 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 29, with a net investment of 1115 billion yuan. [16] 05 Supply - Demand Reports - The MPOB April report on Malaysian palm oil shows a significant increase in production and inventory, which is bearish. The USDA May report on US soybeans shows an increase in exports and a decrease in ending stocks, which is bullish. [18] 06 Capital Flows - On May 29, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 197.96 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 22.39 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net inflow of 220.35 billion yuan. [22] 07 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

【导读】美国上诉法院暂时恢复实施特朗普政府关税政策 美东时间5月29日周四，美股收高，关税司法角力继续，美国上诉法院暂时恢复实施特朗普政府关税政策。 英伟达涨超3%，黄仁勋计划出售至多600万股公司股票。 国际油价周四收跌，回吐早前涨幅。 美上诉法院恢复实施特朗普政府关税政策 据新华社消息，美国联邦巡回上诉法院5月29日批准特朗普政府的请求，暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院此前做出的禁止执行特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济 权力法》对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决。 联邦巡回上诉法院在裁决书中说，美国政府关于立即实施行政中止的请求已获批准，在本法院审议相关动议文件期间，美国国际贸易法院在这些案件中作 出的判决和永久性禁令将暂时中止，直至另行通知。 特朗普政府早些时候向该上诉法院表示，如果禁止关税执行的裁决不能被迅速暂停，政府将最早于5月30日向最高法院寻求紧急帮助。 就在联邦巡回上诉法院"叫停"美国国际贸易法院裁决的同一天，另一家联邦法院——位于首都华盛顿的哥伦比亚特区联邦地区法院就特朗普政府依据《国 际紧急经济权力法》对多国加征的关税措施发布初步禁令。该裁决针对美国两家小企业4月22日对联邦政府发起的诉讼。 5月28日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Court of Appeals has temporarily suspended the enforcement of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, allowing for further legal debate on the matter [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Developments - The U.S. Court of Appeals approved the Trump administration's request to suspend the International Trade Court's ruling that prohibited the enforcement of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [1][2]. - The International Trade Court previously ruled that the President exceeded his authority by imposing tariffs on nearly all trading partners, stating that such powers are constitutionally reserved for Congress [2]. - The U.S. Court of Appeals has ordered both parties to submit written arguments regarding the tariff enforcement by early next month [1][2]. Group 2: Trade Agreements - White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett indicated that three trade agreements are nearing completion, despite the court's ruling against the tariff policy [4][5]. - Hassett mentioned that negotiations with India are progressing towards a significant trade agreement, with a focus on reducing tariffs and enhancing economic ties [5][6]. Group 3: Impact on Retail and Pricing - Many U.S. retailers are planning to raise prices due to the impact of tariffs, with Macy's and Walmart among those affected [7][8]. - Macy's CEO stated that approximately 20% of their products come from China, and the tariff impact has led to a downward revision of earnings guidance by $0.15 to $0.40 per share [7]. - Other companies, including Procter & Gamble and Adidas, have also indicated plans to increase prices in response to rising costs from tariffs [8].

Core Viewpoint - The White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that the ruling on tariffs will not affect ongoing trade agreements [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the resilience of trade negotiations despite external tariff rulings [1]

Core Point - The UAE Trade Minister stated that the bilateral negotiations between the UAE and the EU do not hinder the potential EU-GCC trade agreement [1] Group 1 - The UAE is actively engaging in bilateral negotiations with the EU [1] - The potential EU-GCC trade agreement remains a priority despite ongoing bilateral talks [1]

现在的美国财政，真不是一般的吃紧。36万亿美元国债压顶，仅利息就吞掉GDP的3.7%，平均每个美国人一年光还利息就得掏2500美元。这不是警告，这 是明牌。财政部的锅盖都要被债务炸飞了。 谁都没想到，美国财长会突然放出一句90天内不签协议，就恢复所有关税。这话一出口，像是在边缘试探，也像是在发出最后警告。但仔细一看，不是底气 十足，而是慌了。 你看今年前五个月，美国联邦赤字直接冲到1.147万亿美元。换算一下，每天新增债务超80亿美元。就这么个窟窿，别说补，连往下看的勇气都没有。更麻 烦的是，6月还有6.5万亿美元国债要到期，全指望着发新债接力。但30年期国债收益率已经破5%，新债的利息直接翻倍，以前那点低利息债一到期，财政 压力翻山倒海地砸过来。 再看贝森特，他为啥嘴这么硬？其实手里一张底牌都没剩。他喊着不签协议就不客气，其实是希望中国能配合一下，多买点国债，多交点税，给美国财政续 命。但中国根本不吃这一套。 中国这边早就准备好了应对。4月美国刚加税，中国立刻反手对大豆、玉米、鸡肉下手。这三样可是美国农业州的命根子，是票仓的命脉。一刀下去，美国 农民直接炸锅。2026年中期选举的阴影已经开始笼罩，这才是贝森 ...