Group 1 - The article highlights the introduction of a new live streaming session featuring a seasoned trader and founder of the "Four-Step Trading Method," Beichen, who will discuss trading logic for black commodities and soda ash [1] - The live stream aims to showcase the core functionalities of a futures monitoring tool, which is referred to as a "futures monitoring artifact" [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The September contract of corn showed an increase in positions and an upward trend on Monday, with the futures price closing as a doji with a long lower shadow. After the main contract broke through the support level last week and the futures price dropped rapidly, it was significantly at a discount to the spot price. This situation attracted buying on Monday, driving the futures price to rebound. However, the spot price of corn in the Northeast and North China continued to decline over the weekend, and the market supply was relatively loose. Technically, it is recommended to pay attention to the price pressure in the previous intensive trading area of 2320 - 2330 for the September contract, and consider short - selling after the rebound ends [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybean meal and soybeans closed lower on Monday as the market expected good growth of US soybeans. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans increased to 70%, 4 percentage points higher than last week, and higher than the market expectation of 67% and 68% in the same period last year. The market expects the US soybean crush volume in June to drop to a four - month low of 185.195 million bushels, a 4% month - on - month decrease. Domestically, the protein meal prices rose under the general upward trend of commodities, with rapeseed meal rising more than soybean meal. The operation idea is to maintain a long position in the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads of soybean meal [1]. - Palm Oil: BMD palm oil rose on Monday, following the upward trend of the surrounding markets. The weakening of the Malaysian ringgit and the international oil price reaching a three - week high provided support. Domestically, the futures price of palm oil continued to rise, and the increase in palm oil and soybean oil was better than that of rapeseed oil. The market is mainly in a volatile state, and it is recommended to conduct intraday trading on a single - side basis [1]. - Eggs: The egg futures fluctuated and adjusted on Monday. After the egg price dropped to a new low this year last week, the terminal demand increased, boosting the short - term spot price to rebound from the low level. After the price rebound, the demand became stable. In the future, after the plum - rain season ends, eggs will gradually enter the peak demand season of the year, but considering the pressure on the egg price from the supply side, the expected peak price will be lower than that of last year [1]. - Pigs: The main 2509 contract of live pigs weakened in the morning and rebounded slightly at a low level in the afternoon on Monday, finally closing down 0.42%. The downstream demand was weak, and factors such as high temperatures and school holidays led to a significant decline in the slaughter volume of slaughterhouses. The pig price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - On July 13, the EU and Indonesia reached a political agreement on promoting the EU - Indonesia Free Trade Agreement, which is regarded as an effort by the EU to find a new balance in the global trade pattern [3]. - India's palm oil imports in June increased by 60% month - on - month to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216,141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1,549,825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [3]. - Analysts expect the US soybean crush volume in June to drop to a four - month low of 185.195 million bushels, and the soybean oil inventory of NOPA members is expected to be 1.374 billion pounds [3]. - In the first half of this year, the decline in the import prices of crude oil, iron ore, and soybeans in China pulled down the overall import growth rate by 2.7 percentage points [4]. - The Chinese and US teams are accelerating the implementation of the results of the London framework, and China hopes that the US will continue to cooperate with China to promote the global trade system to return to fairness and openness [4]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - Contract spreads: The report provides charts of the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of the spreads is given [5][6][8] - Contract basis: The report provides charts of the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of the basis is given [13][14][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities in the futures market are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and seasonal patterns. Different commodities show different trends, including high - level shocks, weakening trends, and short - term rebounds [2][3][4]. - The market is in a state of complexity and uncertainty, and investors need to pay attention to various influencing factors and policy changes when making investment decisions. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Although low domestic inventory provides support, macro uncertainties and weak downstream demand limit the upside space. Alumina is in a game between strong current situation and weak expectations, with prices expected to fluctuate. Zinc prices are under pressure due to increased supply and decreased demand, and short - selling at high prices is recommended. Lead prices may fall after rising due to supply recovery and weak demand [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by factors such as marginal improvement in demand and expected supply increase, the price is expected to rebound in the short - term with fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Industry - **Steel**: The supply - demand of steel is relatively balanced, with a small inventory pressure due to low production. The futures discount has narrowed for two consecutive weeks, and it is recommended to wait and see and try the 10/1 reverse spread of rebar [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. The subsequent inventory build - up may be slower than the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see and lay out long positions in the 2605 volume - to - ore ratio [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply - demand of coking coal is relatively loose, but the fundamentals are slowly improving. The futures are at a premium, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term US soybeans are weak, within an oscillating range. The domestic soybean price follows the international cost side. Attention should be paid to the weather in the production area and tariff policies [4]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the future. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to sell at high prices and adopt an oscillating range strategy [4]. - **Palm Oil**: In the short - term, it oscillates strongly, and it is recommended to allocate more in the sector with an expected annual tight supply [4]. - **Eggs**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, with cost support. The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Pigs**: The consumption is seasonally weak, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [5]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to wait and see as the new - season apple production is uncertain and the current consumption is light [5]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short - term, it oscillates mainly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices [6]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to wait and see after gradually closing short positions as there is a lack of upward - driving force [6]. - **PTA**: It is recommended to long - allocate PX, and for PTA, pay attention to short - term positive spread opportunities and short the processing fee at high prices in the long - term [7]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and hold the RU - NR positive spread [7]. - **Glass**: The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see and follow the implementation of production - cut policies [7]. - **PP**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices [7]. - **MEG**: It is expected to run weakly, and short - selling at high prices is recommended [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The overall trend is bearish, and short - selling at high prices while paying attention to inventory accumulation is recommended [8]. - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals are weak, and short - selling at high prices is recommended [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年7月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 交割月份 | 前结算 | 今开盘 | 题高价 | 腰低价 | 收盘价 | 结算参考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交额 | 持合手/变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄晶名品框 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2507 | 22360 | 22200 | 22220 | 22090 | 22180 | 22140 | -180 | -220 | 760 | 8414.53 | 1490 | -80 | | 2508 | 2240 ...

Group 1: General Information - Report period: July 14 - 18, 2025 [1] - Report title: Weekly Report on Rebar and Iron Ore Futures [2] Group 2: Rebar Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - The main contract of rebar futures has entered the third week of the red energy ladder area according to the Great Wall Futures AI intelligent big - data quantitative strategy model [7] - The weekly output of rebar is 2.16 million tons, the apparent consumption is 2.21 million tons, the inventory of major steel mills is 1.8 million tons, and the social inventory is 5.56 million tons [7] - The daily - level price of rebar futures is in an upward channel, and the long - side camp of the main force has a slight advantage [7] - Steel spot enterprises can consider a 70% long - side hedging plan [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of rebar futures entered the second week of the red energy ladder area [10] - This week's strategy suggestion: The main contract of rebar futures is in the third week of the red energy ladder area in the mid - term trend [11] - Hedging suggestion for spot enterprises: Steel spot enterprises can consider implementing a 70% long - side hedging strategy step by step [12] 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [16][29] - Variety diagnosis: The long - short flow shows that the main force is slightly long, the capital energy is basically stable, and there is a certain degree of sentiment divergence [26] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - The main contract of iron ore futures has entered the second week of the mid - term red energy stage area according to the Great Wall Futures AI intelligent data model [35] - In terms of supply, the global shipment volume of iron ore last week was 2.994 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major ports in China was 2.483 million tons, the inventory of steel enterprises was 8.979 million tons, and the inventory of domestic major ports was 13.765 million tons [35] - The AI intelligent investment consultation of Great Wall Futures shows that iron ore is operating in the red stage area [35] - Spot enterprises can consider implementing a long - side hedging strategy step by step [35] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of iron ore futures entered the first week of the mid - term red energy stage area [38] - This week's strategy suggestion: Spot enterprises can consider implementing a long - side hedging strategy step by step [38] 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [41][54] - Variety diagnosis and selected indicator situations are mentioned but specific details are not fully provided [50][52]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that as of the week ending July 8, stock fund managers increased their net long positions in S&P 500 index futures by 20,105 contracts, bringing the total to 864,681 contracts held at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) [1]

Group 1 - The main contract for coking coal increased by 4.00% during the day, currently priced at 919.00 yuan per ton [1]

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Group 1 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange's crude oil futures contract 2508 closed down by 1.44%, settling at 512.80 RMB per barrel [1] - The Shanghai gold futures market saw a slight increase, with night trading up by 0.07% [1] - Shanghai silver futures experienced a more significant rise, increasing by 1.45% during night trading [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply of peanuts is still tight, but the downstream demand remains weak, so the peanut prices are relatively weak in the short term [5][10] - Peanut oil prices are stable, and peanut meal has been stable recently. Oil mills' theoretical profit from peanut pressing is acceptable [10] - PK510 peanuts are trading new crops, with many uncertainties such as weather. In the short term, they will fluctuate at the bottom. However, due to the expected increase in planting area and decrease in planting cost, PK510 will still fluctuate within a narrow range [10] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: PK504 closed at 7972, up 26 (0.33%), with a trading volume increase of 200.00% and an open interest increase of 1.43%; PK510 closed at 8188, up 12 (0.15%), with a trading volume decrease of 46.04% and an open interest decrease of 3.44%; PK601 closed at 7970, up 10 (0.13%), with a trading volume decrease of 46.54% and an open interest increase of 3.88% [3] - **Spot Market**: The prices of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China declined. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.6 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.55 - 4.7 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was 8250 yuan/ton, stable from yesterday [5] - **By - product Market**: The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal was stable at 2790 yuan/ton. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and peanut meal was weak in the short term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3200 yuan/ton [8] - **Price Difference**: The PK01 - PK04 spread was - 2, down 16; the PK04 - PK10 spread was - 216, up 14; the PK10 - PK01 spread was 218, up 2 [3] Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China declined. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.6 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.55 - 4.7 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was 8250 yuan/ton, stable from yesterday [5] - Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, with the mainstream transaction price remaining at 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 8220 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable [5] Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Wait and see in the short term as PK510 peanuts fluctuate at high levels [11] - **Spread**: Go for reverse arbitrage when the PK10 - PK01 spread is low [12] - **Options**: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [13] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, peanut oil mill's pressing profit, peanut oil price, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contract, the spread between PK10 and PK01 contracts, and the spread between PK3 and PK10 contracts [16][19][23]